Author Topic: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?  (Read 10348 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« on: June 02, 2016, 08:14:13 PM »

Offline Alleyoopster

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1315
  • Tommy Points: 151
I'm not a regular follower of college basketball. So, I can't tell whether a lot of the players in this draft might become solid NBA players. I only read what's on news sites and watch highlight films. From what I gather these selective videos can make almost any player look like an 'all-world-can't-miss-prospect.' This makes evaluating them all the more difficult.

In years past, the first 15 players or so in the draft were expected to make some sort of impact for the team that drafted them. Now, it looks (at least to me) that we are coveting players well into the 2nd round, e.g., Thon Maker, Anti Zezi, Chiek Ziablo, Zhou Qi. And, hoping/expecting they will make a major impact down the road.

Obviously, if the early 2nd rounders are promising, then that must mean most every player selected in the 20's has significant value. This didn't appear to be true in the past. For some reason this year's crew must be something special or the media is just hyping them up to be special. Which is it?

Think about it, once we start discussing the actual players their weaknesses start screaming out at you. Even Simmons and Ingram fail in some significant way. Simmons for his shooting. Ingram for his lack of strength. Add the hype surrounding Bender and it becomes almost surreal. One major question about Bender, is he going to be a star once he packs on weight and gains  experience? Or, will he be perpetually be looked at as a 'one day going to be a star' player.

Traveling along the hype-highway we find the mock 4-10 picks are also deeply flawed in some way. Dunn...health status, Murray...will get eaten up by stronger players, Heild...defensively weak, Brown...poor basketball skills and shooting mechanics. The list goes on and on. 

Even with all these weaknesses everyone wants to jockey for a better position and get the best pick....whatever that is. Are we looking for someone who is more skilled than someone else. Or, someone who is not as flawed? Are any of these players really good? Or, are they being hyped up? 
Not sure what to make of it all. My guess is a couple of the hyped-up 2nd rounders would get destroyed in their first year out for lack of experience and strength....Qi and Maker come to mind. 

Maybe it's because the Celtics have so many picks that we are scrutinizing players well into the 2nd round hoping there might become front line talent others will miss out on. Is all hype or is it real? 

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2016, 08:16:30 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
IS anyone over-hyping it?  My perception of it was that it's a kind of weak draft with maybe 2 guys with all-star potential (Simmons and Ingram).  Nobody seems to be suggesting any of the other prospects have star potential.

I think we just are more familiar with the names, because we have a high draft pick.

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2016, 08:36:44 PM »

Online A Future of Stevens

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2801
  • Tommy Points: 526
As larbrd said, in my experience people have been calling this draft weak since last year. If anything it's slightly under hyped. While most of the players at the top have their limitations, most should be able to atleast stick around in the league. I think the top two are slightly (and I mean slightly) overrated, and the 3-8 range is a tid bit underrated.
#JKJB

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2016, 08:46:42 PM »

Offline ahonui06

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 614
  • Tommy Points: 27
Don't think anyone is overhyping this draft

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2016, 08:52:47 PM »

Offline walker834

  • NCE
  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5240
  • Tommy Points: 238
 I'd say it's pretty mishyped.   It's a pretty deep draft with no sure things imo.  Not a ton of superstars. 

I also think it's lacking in those guys you find later that turn out to be superstars. I don't see anyone really like that this draft.  It's just a fairly solid draft.\

There isn't a whole lot worth stressing over like omg we missed that guy or whatever.

It's a deep draft though.  I think it's ranked pretty well and there are good players throughout.  We should be able to find some good players if we pick the right guys.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 08:58:47 PM by walker834 »

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2016, 08:55:29 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1691
  • Tommy Points: 199
If anything, people are selling this draft way short.  It's a near consensus 2-person draft.  Almost everyone is wrong.

Murray, Dunn, Hield, Poeltl, Chriss, Jackson, Luwawu, Valentine, Korkmaz, & Sabonis will produce at least 2 all-stars, maybe more.  Picking the right guy(s) is everything.

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2016, 09:04:36 PM »

Offline Granath

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2154
  • Tommy Points: 567
The draft is under-rated at this point. The mantra that a few here repeat over and over again is that this draft is "weak". It's a "two person draft" (I addressed that about a month ago). Yet in terms of production, shooting and some other skills there are some excellent prospects to be picked up.

PickNRoll above is correct (TP). Beyond Simmons and/or Ingram, at least two other guys drafted in the top 10 of this draft will become All Stars. I have no idea who they are because I'm not in the private workouts. But I have confidence that 5 years from now this draft is going to be seen as one that was better than predicted.

And just remember...the Nets won't be getting any better on draft night! BUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2016, 09:10:33 PM »

Offline walker834

  • NCE
  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5240
  • Tommy Points: 238
Oh I agree there are players with allstar potential.  Especially the way the league is now.  There is quite a bit of separation between superstars and the rest of the league. The league lacks some of that in between right now and this is a good draft that way.  Why i hope we still draft in some form.  There is a good chance we can find a couple pieces this way to go with what we have and are going to get in other ways.  We might be able to entice teams into dealing that way too.  We aren't going to select 8 players.

There are guys coming up from the last 2 drafts as well who are going to be good.   This draft is more filler that way and should really help the talent level.

This draft is a bit deeper imo.  Not as sure things at the top.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 09:15:43 PM by walker834 »

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2016, 09:13:09 PM »

Offline positivitize

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2565
  • Tommy Points: 614
  • Puns of steel
I find this phenomenon interesting too. I think the way we talk about/hype a player has to do with where a player is selected and the expectations that follow from that position. Like you pointed out, usually the only players facing expectations are the ones drafted 1-15. I'd say that's largely still the case. Because of this, the focus on players 1-15 isn't so much what they can do, as it is on what their weaknesses are. It's expected that they will be able to play the game, and drafting becomes more of creating hypothetical as to why they might not live up to their potential and be a bust. Thus, you hear a lot more about Bender's physical limitations, Brown's below average basketball IQ, Simmons' poor shooting, and Murray's lack of defense+effort  than you do about their positives. At this high in the draft, the positives are almost taken for granted--they wouldn't even be in this kind of conversation if they were not considered exceptional or full of potential, thus rendering moot a discussion of how fantastic they are.

On the other hand, late first rounders and second rounders are not expected to ever amount to much (with the exception of James Young). Because of this, people tend to hype up/focus on the possible positives of these players. We hear a lot about Korkmaz's silky smooth shooting and both Qi and Maker's tremendous physical upside, and not a lot about their flaws--they are expected to be flawed, if they weren't flawed, they wouldn't be second round picks.

This tint to the conversation skews the way we as fans regard our picks. While the 3rd pick is undeniably better (and should be more exciting) than the 16th pick, picking 3rd in a "two player draft" feels like a let -down, but picking 16th when there are arguably 10 guys who can fall anywhere from 6 to 16 feels like a tremendous opportunity. Picking Bender 3rd would be par for the course, but picking up Sabonis, Korkmaz, Chriss, or Ellenson with the 16th would feel tremendously lucky. Bender would still probably be a better/more exciting pick in a vacuum, but that matters less than the idea that we "stole" someone with our later pick.

My understanding of this draft is that it's a deep draft after the first 2 players. Simmons and Ingram are a step or two above the rest, (with Bender arguably only one step behind) and then everyone else from 3-17 are kind of on similar footing. I've seen Sabonis going as high as 5 and as low as 19. I've seen Korkmaz going 8th and not being drafted in the first round.
My biases, in order of fervor:
Pro:
Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, Kemba, Grant Williams, Sleepy Williams, Edwards!

Anti:
Kanter, Semi, Theis, Poierier

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2016, 09:37:46 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1691
  • Tommy Points: 199
I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender. 

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2016, 03:34:51 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5964
  • Tommy Points: 875
IS anyone over-hyping it?  My perception of it was that it's a kind of weak draft with maybe 2 guys with all-star potential (Simmons and Ingram).  Nobody seems to be suggesting any of the other prospects have star potential.

I think we just are more familiar with the names, because we have a high draft pick.

I think there are at least 6 or 7 guy sin this draft with All-Star potential, with two guys (Ingram and Simmons) with legit superstar potential.

I think this could be one of the better drafts for a while, and think people are really underrating it.  Just my 2 cents.

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2016, 04:51:15 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2493
  • Tommy Points: 199
The impression I have got is that the draft as few stars, a plethora of potential starters and a lot of guys who can carve a role as rotation guys. There are also those few enigmas you get in every draft who could be a steal in the 2nd round or could be working in Foot Locker in a few years

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2016, 05:00:39 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8893
  • Tommy Points: 290
This draft is stacked with potential and question marks. It's usually not so clear that nothing is clear.

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2016, 06:16:46 AM »

Online Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20125
  • Tommy Points: 1333
I have always heard this was a 2 player draft but there is always someone that people miss in these cases.

Re: Is this draft over-hyped or is it legit?
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2016, 07:48:06 AM »

Offline CoachBo

  • NCE
  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6069
  • Tommy Points: 336
I fully expect another olowakandi, Bibby, traylor, lafrentz, Jamison, white chocolate draft sequence. Then somebody with a shred of basketball acumen takes the next paul pierce because they aren't into potential, upside, youth, or fancy 7 foot 3 point shooters who can walk and chew gum.  Red will roll over in his grave if we end up with a bender.

No question. Red wouldn't touch the Euromistake with a 10-foot pole.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."