This morning I was listening to JJ Redick's Vertical podcast. Specifically, I listened to his interview with his former coach, Stan Van Gundy. At one point, SVG was talking about measuring his team's success. He said that look, every team wants to win a championship. But you can't go into a practice, a game, or even a season, with that as your only goal. You need to be able to work towards tangible objectives that serve as signposts for your improvement over time. The championships may or may not come, but you've got to just trust that doing the right thing every day will get you closer and closer.
With that in mind, I want to break away from the frequently reductive big-picture assessment of where the Celts are at and take a look at tangible ways in which they showed improvement this season compared to the season before, and also set my expectations for where I'd like to see them improve next year. Those goals will provide a basis for how I will judge what the team does this summer to upgrade the roster.
Areas of Improvement in 2015-2015
- Overall, the Celts went from 20th to 13th in Team Offensive Efficiency, and from tied for 13th in Team Defensive Efficiency to tied for 5th. Those are significant jumps in both categories.
- On the offensive boards, the Celts improved from 16th to 10th (offensive rebound rate).
- Forcing turnovers was a major area of strength for this team. They went from 11th in Opponent Turnovers per Possession in 14-15 all the way to 3rd in that category in 15-16. This contributed to the team improving from 12th to 6th in fast break points per game.
- Though they were no great shakes at defending the interior this season -- 14th in opponent points in the paint -- the Celts did manage a major improvement in that area from the previous season, when they were 25th.
- On the other end, the Celts went from 17th in points in the paint per game to 7th, which is also a pretty significant improvement. I tend to think of the Celts as a team that's very reliant on jumpshots and weak in the interior, lacking any go-to presence in the paint, but they managed above average offensive efficiency in large part because as a team they generated lots of looks inside, making up for their terrible outside shooting.
Where to Focus for 2016-2017
- Defensive Rebounding
Cleaning the glass has been an ongoing problem for this team. The Celts have ranked 19th, 15th, and 21st in Defensive Rebounding % during Brad Stevens' tenure. It's tough to be such a good defensive team in other respects, but give the opponent so many second chances.
- Free throw rate
Raising free throws attempted is an easy way to improve offensive efficiency. The Celts were 21st this season in Free Throw Attempts per Field Goal Attempt. That was actually an improvement over the previous two seasons, in which they were 27th and 29th in that category.
It's hard to get a lot of free throws when you don't have stars, but giving lots of offensive touches to guys that take shots but don't get to the line much (e.g. Bradley, Turner, Sullinger) makes it even tougher.
- Three point percentage
While the Celts are doing reasonably well keeping up with the modern trend of shooting lots of three pointers -- 28-30% of their attempts the past two seasons, good for around 12th in the league -- they have been absolutely horrible at hitting those shots, as we all well know.
Over the last three years the Celts have ranked 28th, 28th, and 29th in Three Point Percentage, although at least this season they managed to shoot 33% as a team, meaning they broke even on those attempts. Good job, good effort, am I right?
One question I have is how the Celts rank in terms of "open" three pointers taken (however you define that term), and how they rank in terms of shooting percentage on "open" shots. It seems to me that the Celts have been pretty good at generating good looks, they simply go through stretches where nobody can hit even wide open jumpers.
- Defensive fouls / Opponent Free Throws
Playing great defense doesn't matter if you bail the opponent out with a foul. During Brad's time as Boston's coach, the Celts have ranked 20th, 19th, and 25th in Personal Fouls per Possession.
In the same vein, the Celts have been a poor team in terms of giving up free throws -- 17th and 16th the last two years and 25th (!) this season. Perhaps it is in part a sign that the Celts don't allow the opponent easy buckets and instead send them to the free throw line. The top 10 of this category includes a lot of young teams that probably allow a layup line inside. But the Spurs were 2nd in this category this season, and other smart, veteran defensive teams like Miami, Charlotte, and Atlanta were in the top 10.
The Celts must get better at defending without fouling.
- Generating and finishing easy baskets
If you have a poor shooting team, like the Celts, it helps to create and complete easy looks. Unfortunately, the Celts were not so great at doing that this season, ranking 19th in Non-blocked 2 point percentage. The previous two years the Celts ranked 13th and 27th in this category, so it's been a little bit up and down the last few years.
My guess is this comes down to the Celts taking a fair number of mid-range and close shots as a team, with relatively few attempts at the rim. The Celts also employ a number of rather weak finishers at the rim, e.g. Turner, Smart, Bradley, and Sullinger.
Better spacing would certainly help with this. The best teams in this category this season were Golden State, OKC, Houston, Atlanta, and Cleveland. Most of those teams have dominant stars who can get inside and finish at a crazy high percentage. But those teams also have lots of shooters and move the ball quite well, with the exception of Houston.
What do you think? What were you glad to see the Celts do better this season, and where would you like to see them improve next season?
For the purposes of this discussion, "win more games," "win a playoff series," "win a championship" or "add more talent" are not valid answers. I think those are pretty obvious and don't merit much in the way of discussion.
Topic: Measuring Success for the Celtics (Read 1160 times)