Thon Maker NBA Draft Combine analysis

[The One]

Unless he works out for us and is impressive I don't want him.  If he is afraid of playing in the combine scrimmages then he isn't the kind of guy I want.

Marcus had bad workouts for Celtics, right?  I still love the Marcus pick.

I would be happy to take Thon...let him mature and develop and then unleash him on the league.

[crimson_stallion]

If he's there at 23 you have to take him. I think the real question is whether or not we take him at 16, which is probably the last chance we'll have to grab him.

There aren't a lot of guys after the top 3 or 4 that I'm over-the-moon for anyway. I think Simmons/Ingram/Dunn/Hield are all guys who have good to great NBA careers. After that it's just guessing to me. Skal has potential but lacks the motor that Maker has. Poeltl could be anywhere from Andrew Bogut to Tyler Hansbrough. Jaylen Brown has bust written all over him as does Dragan Bender. Cheick Diallo is an interesting look on the measurables but couldn't see the court in Kansas and has no offense outside of dunking.

I think those kinds of evaluations can be said for everyone outside of the top-2 so really it's just a matter of liking the kids we pick, and possibly fit as we have a solid group of guys for the first time since the Nets trade.

So I'm up for Maker at 16. I am relatively confident that had he gone to college he would be a top-3 pick next year. He seems to run hot and every report is that he's a working. I'll gladly strike out on that criteria along with freakish physical tools every day. That is a winning combo to me.

A lot of people think he'll be around in the 20's but I'm not so sure. His stock will keep rising. First thought I had him going at 19 to Denver, but now I could see Phoenix at 13. Have to watch the teams he works out for, and hear what they say about him. He could even go higher.

As for not playing in the scrimmage.. Agents advised players not too, so I don't see that as a big deal.

To be fair, a lot of people were talking about Upshaw last year the same way as they are talking about Maker this year.

People were obsessed with his incredible upside, so many people were convinced he had massive star potential, and that we should take him in the first round otherwise somebody else will.

In the end he went undrafted, the Lakers picked him up on the cheap, and he lasted there for maybe a month before he got dumped.

Wouldn't surprise me if Maker falls later in the draft then people think.  I could see him slipping to the very late first or early second (25 - 35).  He's just such a high risk player who is likely going to take a good 2-3 years of development before he could become a productive player.  I don't see that as the type of guy many playoff teams (Spurs, Celtics, Thunder, etc) would gamble on because they want to use their roster spaces on guys who can help them win games. 

Because of that you might find him to be a niche' selection, and for that reason he might slip further than you think.

[Vermont Green]

Those who follow my posts closely  , know I have been in on Maker.  I think the only question is where to take him.  If he is available at #31, I would absolutely take him.  I think hard about it at #23.  I probably let it roll at #16 thinking there will be another shot at him.

The size of his hands?  I am not concerned.  It is players who have hands too big that can't shoot.  His hands are more than big enough so long as he has the necessary reactions/reflexes.  I am also not worried about skipping the scrimmage.  These are all players that played in college.  They probably are mostly ahead of him.  I don't see how him playing helps him.

The only concern I have is to figure out a way to assure he can play at the speed of the NBA game (reactions/reflexes).  Not sure how to test for that.  You just have to watch him play (which i have not done) or maybe there is a drill they can put him through.  If he passes that, pick him.  He shows more than enough potential in the other areas just based on highlights.  I think he probably has the reactions he needs based on the highlights I have seen but of course it is hard to calibrate the speed of the game against the lower level of competition.

[LooseCannon]

I have concerns that Maker will have the lack of defensive awareness that will make it hard for him get any minutes under Brad Stevens.

Ideally, he would be taken with a second round pick under an agreement that he would play in summer league and agree to go overseas if the team thinks he's not ready.  I would expect him to go to a lower-tier league and practice, practice, practice.  I could see him getting minimal minutes and not playing every game his first season.

I don't think he is worth a pick if he isn't open to an arrangement like that.  The Celtics can't really keep him on the roster if he is so raw that he can't play the Celtics defensive system at all in his first season.

[alldaboston]

Unless he works out for us and is impressive I don't want him.  If he is afraid of playing in the combine scrimmages then he isn't the kind of guy I want.

Marcus had bad workouts for Celtics, right?  I still love the Marcus pick.

I would be happy to take Thon...let him mature and develop and then unleash him on the league.

Marcus had a bad workout (I think he got hurt a bit), and Danny and the crew were shocked. So they invited him back and he did much better the second time.

[Green-Bananas]

If he's there at 23 you have to take him. I think the real question is whether or not we take him at 16, which is probably the last chance we'll have to grab him.

There aren't a lot of guys after the top 3 or 4 that I'm over-the-moon for anyway. I think Simmons/Ingram/Dunn/Hield are all guys who have good to great NBA careers. After that it's just guessing to me. Skal has potential but lacks the motor that Maker has. Poeltl could be anywhere from Andrew Bogut to Tyler Hansbrough. Jaylen Brown has bust written all over him as does Dragan Bender. Cheick Diallo is an interesting look on the measurables but couldn't see the court in Kansas and has no offense outside of dunking.

I think those kinds of evaluations can be said for everyone outside of the top-2 so really it's just a matter of liking the kids we pick, and possibly fit as we have a solid group of guys for the first time since the Nets trade.

So I'm up for Maker at 16. I am relatively confident that had he gone to college he would be a top-3 pick next year. He seems to run hot and every report is that he's a working. I'll gladly strike out on that criteria along with freakish physical tools every day. That is a winning combo to me.

A lot of people think he'll be around in the 20's but I'm not so sure. His stock will keep rising. First thought I had him going at 19 to Denver, but now I could see Phoenix at 13. Have to watch the teams he works out for, and hear what they say about him. He could even go higher.

As for not playing in the scrimmage.. Agents advised players not too, so I don't see that as a big deal.

To be fair, a lot of people were talking about Upshaw last year the same way as they are talking about Maker this year.

People were obsessed with his incredible upside, so many people were convinced he had massive star potential, and that we should take him in the first round otherwise somebody else will.

In the end he went undrafted, the Lakers picked him up on the cheap, and he lasted there for maybe a month before he got dumped.

Wouldn't surprise me if Maker falls later in the draft then people think.  I could see him slipping to the very late first or early second (25 - 35).  He's just such a high risk player who is likely going to take a good 2-3 years of development before he could become a productive player.  I don't see that as the type of guy many playoff teams (Spurs, Celtics, Thunder, etc) would gamble on because they want to use their roster spaces on guys who can help them win games. 

Because of that you might find him to be a niche' selection, and for that reason he might slip further than you think.

It will be fun to see where Maker finally ends up. I find this draft class very interesting compared to most years. There's only a couple can't miss (Simmons/Ingram) but I think there's a few sleepers (Davis, Korkmaz, Felder) depending where they get picked of course, and some busts too.

I guess the comparison of Upshaw vs Makers is good based on talent, but Upshaw had or has serious off court issues that would turn off most teams.

[chilidawg]

One big difference between Upshaw and Maker is that we saw Upshaw play college ball.  Maker is such an unknown, with a good number of those who have seen him very unimpressed.

[mmmmm]

If he's there at 23 you have to take him. I think the real question is whether or not we take him at 16, which is probably the last chance we'll have to grab him.

There aren't a lot of guys after the top 3 or 4 that I'm over-the-moon for anyway. I think Simmons/Ingram/Dunn/Hield are all guys who have good to great NBA careers. After that it's just guessing to me. Skal has potential but lacks the motor that Maker has. Poeltl could be anywhere from Andrew Bogut to Tyler Hansbrough. Jaylen Brown has bust written all over him as does Dragan Bender. Cheick Diallo is an interesting look on the measurables but couldn't see the court in Kansas and has no offense outside of dunking.

I think those kinds of evaluations can be said for everyone outside of the top-2 so really it's just a matter of liking the kids we pick, and possibly fit as we have a solid group of guys for the first time since the Nets trade.

So I'm up for Maker at 16. I am relatively confident that had he gone to college he would be a top-3 pick next year. He seems to run hot and every report is that he's a working. I'll gladly strike out on that criteria along with freakish physical tools every day. That is a winning combo to me.

A lot of people think he'll be around in the 20's but I'm not so sure. His stock will keep rising. First thought I had him going at 19 to Denver, but now I could see Phoenix at 13. Have to watch the teams he works out for, and hear what they say about him. He could even go higher.

As for not playing in the scrimmage.. Agents advised players not too, so I don't see that as a big deal.

To be fair, a lot of people were talking about Upshaw last year the same way as they are talking about Maker this year.

People were obsessed with his incredible upside, so many people were convinced he had massive star potential, and that we should take him in the first round otherwise somebody else will.

In the end he went undrafted, the Lakers picked him up on the cheap, and he lasted there for maybe a month before he got dumped.

I don't think Upshaw makes for a very good comparison.  Or perhaps I should say, I think he is an inverted comparison.

Upshaw's ability to play was never in question because he was very impressive playing in the NCAA for Washington before his suspension.  The only question was his off-the-court issues, which ultimately have proven to be pretty serious, but at the time to the public there was really scant information with which to make an informed decision about.

With Maker, all reports concerning 'character' and 'intangibles' are positive -- he interviews well, and is by all I've read an extremely hard worker, dedicated to basketball and his family.   The only question is whether he has the ability to play -- the information available to the public is more limited there.   

Hopefully, Danny will have enough information from workouts to make a properly informed decision about his ability to play.

[Rosco917]

7-1 216 pounds has me worried. I can't imagine how slight his frame is at that weight. Even at his young age.

[danglertx]

Unless he works out for us and is impressive I don't want him.  If he is afraid of playing in the combine scrimmages then he isn't the kind of guy I want.

Marcus had bad workouts for Celtics, right?  I still love the Marcus pick.

I would be happy to take Thon...let him mature and develop and then unleash him on the league.

I'm pretty sure Smart played at the combine, but if not, we had what, three years of college tape on him.  I'm saying a guy without tape who isn't willing to play against competition isn't worth a pick unless he wows in individual workouts.  Even then, Yi Jilian was good against a chair.

[arctic 3.0]

If he's there at 23 you have to take him. I think the real question is whether or not we take him at 16, which is probably the last chance we'll have to grab him.

There aren't a lot of guys after the top 3 or 4 that I'm over-the-moon for anyway. I think Simmons/Ingram/Dunn/Hield are all guys who have good to great NBA careers. After that it's just guessing to me. Skal has potential but lacks the motor that Maker has. Poeltl could be anywhere from Andrew Bogut to Tyler Hansbrough. Jaylen Brown has bust written all over him as does Dragan Bender. Cheick Diallo is an interesting look on the measurables but couldn't see the court in Kansas and has no offense outside of dunking.

I think those kinds of evaluations can be said for everyone outside of the top-2 so really it's just a matter of liking the kids we pick, and possibly fit as we have a solid group of guys for the first time since the Nets trade.

So I'm up for Maker at 16. I am relatively confident that had he gone to college he would be a top-3 pick next year. He seems to run hot and every report is that he's a working. I'll gladly strike out on that criteria along with freakish physical tools every day. That is a winning combo to me.

A lot of people think he'll be around in the 20's but I'm not so sure. His stock will keep rising. First thought I had him going at 19 to Denver, but now I could see Phoenix at 13. Have to watch the teams he works out for, and hear what they say about him. He could even go higher.

As for not playing in the scrimmage.. Agents advised players not too, so I don't see that as a big deal.

To be fair, a lot of people were talking about Upshaw last year the same way as they are talking about Maker this year.

People were obsessed with his incredible upside, so many people were convinced he had massive star potential, and that we should take him in the first round otherwise somebody else will.

In the end he went undrafted, the Lakers picked him up on the cheap, and he lasted there for maybe a month before he got dumped.

I don't think Upshaw makes for a very good comparison.  Or perhaps I should say, I think he is an inverted comparison.

Upshaw's ability to play was never in question because he was very impressive playing in the NCAA for Washington before his suspension.  The only question was his off-the-court issues, which ultimately have proven to be pretty serious, but at the time to the public there was really scant information with which to make an informed decision about.

With Maker, all reports concerning 'character' and 'intangibles' are positive -- he interviews well, and is by all I've read an extremely hard worker, dedicated to basketball and his family.   The only question is whether he has the ability to play -- the information available to the public is more limited there.   

Hopefully, Danny will have enough information from workouts to make a properly informed decision about his ability to play.

I posted something similar in another thread.
Through about reposting on this thread.
Then I read this and decided I didn't need to.
Thanks.
Tp

[Vermont Green]

Teams with multiple picks are probably looking hard at Maker:

PHo:          #4, #13, #28
Den:          #7, #15, #19
Sixers:       #1, #24, #26
Celtics:      #3, #16, #23, (#31)

Seems like one of these teams will take him with their second or third pick.  I included #31 in this as to me, this is the ideal point for the Celtics to get him.  Problem is the rumors that the Suns like him and it seems likely they would take him at #28.

Maybe we should grab him #23

[arctic 3.0]

Teams with multiple picks are probably looking hard at Maker:

PHo:          #4, #13, #28
Den:          #7, #15, #19
Sixers:       #1, #24, #26
Celtics:      #3, #16, #23, (#31)

Seems like one of these teams will take him with their second or third pick.  I included #31 in this as to me, this is the ideal point for the Celtics to get him.  Problem is the rumors that the Suns like him and it seems likely they would take him at #28.

Maybe we should grab him #23

If his workouts go as well as his interview he could jump to late teens.

I'm going with the "go big" approach this year.
Bender at 3, maker at 16.
Grab a upper classmen wing on the slide at 23

[knuckleballer]

I came across a couple of videos showing Thon playing in high school.  Neither is a highlight nor lowlight video so I think they give you a better idea of where he is at than other videos I have seen.  The first video shows all his plays from a game against Huntington Prep where his team loses while he scores half his teams points.  You can see he has a good outside shot, but settles for the jumper too easily.  His play is a bit sloppy, so I can see why scouts think he's a late first or second round pick.  Still, I'd like to see the Celtics take a shot with him with the 23rd pick.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ju3ymkPQyhc
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vcH_7pJ2HPs