A Celtics Summer Of Inflated Expections

[PhoSita]

The expectations are inflated this summer, but to be honest, Danny Ainge has done everything to jack those expectations up, as he does almost every summer.

At some point, he is going to have to deliver.  Yes, rationally, we cannot "expect" Danny to make great things happen if the stuff seemingly outside of his control (the lottery, free agent priorities, etc) don't go his way.

Still, I think if you continually raise the stakes, and premise your whole rebuild plan on setting your team up for a big move, you've got to come through sooner rather than later.  You can't simply continue acquiring assets and maintaining flexibility in perpetuity.


If the team looks more or less the same headed into next season, save the addition of a few rookies, that has to be seen as a pretty significant failure.

Isn't it the GM's job to create excitement within the fan base for the upcoming season?! What do you expect him to do... He has proven that he has been able to turn assets into better ones. Let's see what he does before we count him out.

Underpromise, overdeliver is more my kind of style.


Ainge has a lot to work with this summer, and the team as constituted for the last season and a half or so is good, but not good enough to do more than lose in the first round in convincing fashion.

If "fireworks" are not possible, my minimum expectation is that Ainge will make bold, creative moves to refashion the team in a way that provides at least the chance that the team will take a step forward next season.

The status quo doesn't interest me.  Having flexibility and assets to work with doesn't mean a darn thing if it serves as an excuse to endlessly wait for the best case scenario.

[greece66]

mk, you can temper your concerns by knowing that Ainge won't rush to make a bad deal. He didn't force a deal last season, when Wyc was promising fireworks.

Fans are only symbolic stakeholders; Ainge has no accountability to them. If he decides to pass on trades that don't improve the club, and merely rolls over available cap space with another Amir Johnson/Jonas Jerebko type signing or two, that's what he'll do.

Just keep a salt lick handy for the next couple months' worth of empty prognostication and silly thoughtpieces that pass for NBA journalism. A bottle of tequila and some limes to go with that salt lick might not be a bad idea either.

Mk

PS do you still use AOL man?

[LarBrd33]

We will almost certainly have opportunities to improve this team this summer.  Durant isn't a guarantee but there's about 50 scenarios I can think of.  The entire league isn't standing pat.  We will make significant improvements.

This. The absolute worst case scenario is that we get the 6th Pick...that's the worst case scenario. People have reason to be optimistic.

It's harder for me to envision a scenario where nothing happens.   There's just way too much to work with and way too much motivation to make something happen.   I have trouble even imagining a chain of events where Boston fails to do anything to improve the team.   We will almost certainly make improvements.

[ThePaintedArea]

... the proposed draft choices aren't good options, especially the hideously overrated Bender -

Thank you. Jaylen Brown, in comparison, is only badly overrated.

[moiso]

The expectations are inflated this summer, but to be honest, Danny Ainge has done everything to jack those expectations up, as he does almost every summer.

At some point, he is going to have to deliver.  Yes, rationally, we cannot "expect" Danny to make great things happen if the stuff seemingly outside of his control (the lottery, free agent priorities, etc) don't go his way.

Still, I think if you continually raise the stakes, and premise your whole rebuild plan on setting your team up for a big move, you've got to come through sooner rather than later.  You can't simply continue acquiring assets and maintaining flexibility in perpetuity.


If the team looks more or less the same headed into next season, save the addition of a few rookies, that has to be seen as a pretty significant failure.

It might be a pretty significant dissappointment, especially to guys like you, but I wouldn't call it a failure at all.  Obviously it takes two to make a deal, and Ainge only controls one side of things.  You know Ainge wants to come out ahead in every deal and he's not going to pull the trigger just to make the impatatient people (from Wyc to the fans) happy.  I think this quality is part of what makes Ainge great.

[Greyman]

We will almost certainly have opportunities to improve this team this summer.  Durant isn't a guarantee but there's about 50 scenarios I can think of.  The entire league isn't standing pat.  We will make significant improvements.

This. The absolute worst case scenario is that we get the 6th Pick...that's the worst case scenario. People have reason to be optimistic.

It's harder for me to envision a scenario where nothing happens.   There's just way too much to work with and way too much motivation to make something happen.   I have trouble even imagining a chain of events where Boston fails to do anything to improve the team.   We will almost certainly make improvements.

I have to agree, the question is only about the degree and quality of change/improvement. Everything may domino from draft night though I expect DA to have contingencies for many eventualities.

I would add that there is a danger in limited change. The ability to sell Boston as a great destination for NBA all stars is high this off season. It would be much lower next season if the team didn't improve, despite the draft picks. One of the selling points is that this is an organisation going somewhere. Standing still with so many assets would send a very negative message.

[alldaboston]

We will almost certainly have opportunities to improve this team this summer.  Durant isn't a guarantee but there's about 50 scenarios I can think of.  The entire league isn't standing pat.  We will make significant improvements.

This. The absolute worst case scenario is that we get the 6th Pick...that's the worst case scenario. People have reason to be optimistic.

It's harder for me to envision a scenario where nothing happens.   There's just way too much to work with and way too much motivation to make something happen.   I have trouble even imagining a chain of events where Boston fails to do anything to improve the team.   We will almost certainly make improvements.

I have to agree, the question is only about the degree and quality of change/improvement. Everything may domino from draft night though I expect DA to have contingencies for many eventualities.

I would add that there is a danger in limited change. The ability to sell Boston as a great destination for NBA all stars is high this off season. It would be much lower next season if the team didn't improve, despite the draft picks. One of the selling points is that this is an organisation going somewhere. Standing still with so many assets would send a very negative message.

This is very important too. It's truly an offseason that will define the franchise for arguably a very long time

[Csfan1984]

I posted a thread about FA dissapointment possibilty.
 http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=83443.0

We may not make out well this off season.

[hwangjini_1]

We will almost certainly have opportunities to improve this team this summer.  Durant isn't a guarantee but there's about 50 scenarios I can think of.  The entire league isn't standing pat.  We will make significant improvements.

This. The absolute worst case scenario is that we get the 6th Pick...that's the worst case scenario. People have reason to be optimistic.

It's harder for me to envision a scenario where nothing happens.   There's just way too much to work with and way too much motivation to make something happen.   I have trouble even imagining a chain of events where Boston fails to do anything to improve the team.   We will almost certainly make improvements.

I have to agree, the question is only about the degree and quality of change/improvement. Everything may domino from draft night though I expect DA to have contingencies for many eventualities.

I would add that there is a danger in limited change. The ability to sell Boston as a great destination for NBA all stars is high this off season. It would be much lower next season if the team didn't improve, despite the draft picks. One of the selling points is that this is an organisation going somewhere. Standing still with so many assets would send a very negative message.

This is very important too. It's truly an offseason that will define the franchise for arguably a very long time

just my two cents worth here, but i am not so sure that it all hinges on THIS summer. the celtics still have two more years of lottery picks from the nets. there is time to CONTINUE to improve this team this year without it being the final, or hoped for, or intended finish.

it would not surprise me to have ainge carefully add one or two pieces to this team this year. and then build upon that in the next few years.

the expectation that is all has to come together THIS YEAR may be setting some folks up for disappointment. while it would be nice, i think ainge is patient enough to avoid a bad deal this year just to make a deal.

[CoachBo]

The expectations are inflated this summer, but to be honest, Danny Ainge has done everything to jack those expectations up, as he does almost every summer.

At some point, he is going to have to deliver.  Yes, rationally, we cannot "expect" Danny to make great things happen if the stuff seemingly outside of his control (the lottery, free agent priorities, etc) don't go his way.

Still, I think if you continually raise the stakes, and premise your whole rebuild plan on setting your team up for a big move, you've got to come through sooner rather than later.  You can't simply continue acquiring assets and maintaining flexibility in perpetuity.


If the team looks more or less the same headed into next season, save the addition of a few rookies, that has to be seen as a pretty significant failure.

Isn't it the GM's job to create excitement within the fan base for the upcoming season?! What do you expect him to do... He has proven that he has been able to turn assets into better ones. Let's see what he does before we count him out.

Underpromise, overdeliver is more my kind of style.


Ainge has a lot to work with this summer, and the team as constituted for the last season and a half or so is good, but not good enough to do more than lose in the first round in convincing fashion.

If "fireworks" are not possible, my minimum expectation is that Ainge will make bold, creative moves to refashion the team in a way that provides at least the chance that the team will take a step forward next season.

The status quo doesn't interest me.  Having flexibility and assets to work with doesn't mean a darn thing if it serves as an excuse to endlessly wait for the best case scenario.

TP for an excellent post.

Ainge and Grousbeck have made their own bed with their voluntary hyperbole. And they've come up empty on more than one occasion.

Now, the pressure's on them to significantly upgrade the talent on the floor, from their fanbase and I would hope from their head coach. One would hope that Stevens would make it clear that he didn't come into the association to coach an overachieving crew of bricklayers indefinitely.

And as I've said before, draft choices and players are not assets if they cannot be converted into on-floor improvement.

This is a big summer, credibility-wise, for Ainge and Grousbeck. If nothing happens - again - the only people who are going to take them seriously going forward are the ill-informed fans happy to continue muddling through first-round wipeouts with this current, deeply-flawed roster, out of the equally flawed notion that a better deal is just around the corner - after years of talk about fireworks and nothing resulting.

Knowledgeable Celtics fans already recognize crying wolf for exactly what it is.

[CoachBo]

The expectations are inflated this summer, but to be honest, Danny Ainge has done everything to jack those expectations up, as he does almost every summer.

At some point, he is going to have to deliver.  Yes, rationally, we cannot "expect" Danny to make great things happen if the stuff seemingly outside of his control (the lottery, free agent priorities, etc) don't go his way.

Still, I think if you continually raise the stakes, and premise your whole rebuild plan on setting your team up for a big move, you've got to come through sooner rather than later.  You can't simply continue acquiring assets and maintaining flexibility in perpetuity.


If the team looks more or less the same headed into next season, save the addition of a few rookies, that has to be seen as a pretty significant failure.

It might be a pretty significant dissappointment, especially to guys like you, but I wouldn't call it a failure at all.  Obviously it takes two to make a deal, and Ainge only controls one side of things.  You know Ainge wants to come out ahead in every deal and he's not going to pull the trigger just to make the impatatient people (from Wyc to the fans) happy.  I think this quality is part of what makes Ainge great.

I think that quality, if true - and I don't believe it is for a minute - is going to get Ainge fired.

As it should.

[moiso]

The expectations are inflated this summer, but to be honest, Danny Ainge has done everything to jack those expectations up, as he does almost every summer.

At some point, he is going to have to deliver.  Yes, rationally, we cannot "expect" Danny to make great things happen if the stuff seemingly outside of his control (the lottery, free agent priorities, etc) don't go his way.

Still, I think if you continually raise the stakes, and premise your whole rebuild plan on setting your team up for a big move, you've got to come through sooner rather than later.  You can't simply continue acquiring assets and maintaining flexibility in perpetuity.


If the team looks more or less the same headed into next season, save the addition of a few rookies, that has to be seen as a pretty significant failure.

It might be a pretty significant dissappointment, especially to guys like you, but I wouldn't call it a failure at all.  Obviously it takes two to make a deal, and Ainge only controls one side of things.  You know Ainge wants to come out ahead in every deal and he's not going to pull the trigger just to make the impatatient people (from Wyc to the fans) happy.  I think this quality is part of what makes Ainge great.

I think that quality, if true - and I don't believe it is for a minute - is going to get Ainge fired.

As it should.

No way will Ainge be fired any season soon.  You can't make trades just to make trades.  And it's Wyc who always promises the big splash.  The most Ainge has said is that he's hopeful.

[PhoSita]

A good GM is a good strategist.

A good strategist doesn't make moves just to make moves.

At the same time, a good strategist doesn't base their entire long term outlook on boom or bust plans.

That was the basic criticism if Hinkie, after all.

Having lots of assets and flexibility is great, but only if you can make use of it so that it allows you to keep moving forward even when the uncontrollable variables don't break your way.

[loco_91]

A good GM is a good strategist.

A good strategist doesn't make moves just to make moves.

At the same time, a good strategist doesn't base their entire long term outlook on boom or bust plans.

That was the basic criticism if Hinkie, after all.

Having lots of assets and flexibility is great, but only if you can make use of it so that it allows you to keep moving forward even when the uncontrollable variables don't break your way.

This sounds like a criticism of Ainge but it's awfully vague... Is he too "boom or bust"? Only "boom/bust" move I can think of is trading for Ray+KG, and that one worked out pretty well. If anything Ainge has shown a penchant for making small- to medium-sized moves that pay big dividends. The Rondo/Crowder trade, the IT trade, re-signing AB, the Amir signing, and most underrated of all signing Jae to that awesome 5 year contract. Without those deals we'd be looking at a much worse team, still with assets, but we'd be staking a lot more on the "boom" and the "bust" would be looking a lot more likely.

I think a lot of C's fans will be disappointed if we see more of the same, medium-sized deals where we don't give up much and don't take much risk. But given Ainge's stellar record, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

[guava_wrench]

I am about to burst. There are soooooo many expectations building article on the Celtics off season right now. Too many IMO. This is especially true for the ones which are calling for or predicting Danny to trump the 2007 off season.

A large part of these inflated expectations are a result of the way Danny and especially Wyc fail to keep exceptions down. This also happened last off season with Wyc's "Fireworks" spiel.

In a way, the Cs and Danny are a victim of their own off season success. The 2007 off season was something special, which will never be repeated. The crazy thing is that b/c of that amazing Nets trades, Danny likely has a better set of assets today than he has in 2007. That doesn't mean the Cs are on the same path or team arch as the 2007 team. If this current squad is ever to reach contender/championship level, it's story will be unique.

My main worry is that the Cs don't land  #1/2 or a star via FA or trade and force something b/c of the expectations. Danny doesn't normally force anything. The only deals which felt forced were the Perk/Green and Antoine Walker/Raef LaFrentz deals. One could argue that Danny trading up during the 2013 draft to select a safe pick in KO over just selecting a high risk/high reward International player like Giannis, Schroder, or Lucas Nogueira was also forced.

Please don't get me wrong, I would be excited for the Cs to land Cousins, KD, Butler, etc... I would be equally excited to see Simmons or Ingram drafted by the Cs. If Danny drafts & develop Bender or Jaylen Brown, I am very good with that to.

I want to see the Cs build towards #18. I don't need all of the construction done in the next 75 days. I would be fine with a slower track, watching Smart, Simmons/Ingram/Bender/Brown, Young, Crowder, Rozier, Hunter, 2017 Nets pick, etc... develop.

Thoughts on this or how you would feel if the Cs go into next season with a similar team + a guy like Jaylen Brown, Bender, or Domantas Sabonis?

Mk

That list of player you mentioned would most likely develop towards mediocrity and no chances at a title. Many of those guys might develop to the point of being confirmed busts and then we let them walk and look for something else.