Quote from: Smart457 on April 21, 2016, 03:40:18 PM

I was debating whether we will even make the playoffs next year with a friend and we came to the conclusion that it's a possibility we won't. There are some what ifs so I'm not too worried but it does concern me that we could have gotten some decent draft picks but instead went for the playoffs the last two years. Maybe we have Winslow if we missed last year's playoffs and we have Hield with this years and the Nets pick.

The scenario we agreed on was:

Horford resigning with Hawks - seems unlikely but Hawks want to. If they compete with Cavs I think they keep the team together.

Derozen staying with Toronto - good possibility

Wizards getting Durant or Bulls improving - somewhat unlikely but could happen.

Pacers and Pistons making the next step - Likely

Celtics drafting Ingram - you have to play the rookie. He will ultimately cost us wins in the short term.

Seems like a good possibility that the Celtics will be gunning for the last two playoff spots with Miami and the Hornets.

So how about some early predictions. Anyone with a weak stomach and still invested in this current playoff push can just ignore the post.

A few things We are getting a top 5 pick which is more than any other playoff team right now. Some (like Miami) don't even own their own pick. Of all the teams in the playoffs we are also close to the youngest team. At least some of Rozier, Smart, KO, Mickey should improve and be better next year if not all of them. So it seems unlikely that these teams are all going to pass us. Especially when a lot of them (Hawks, Heat in particular) rely heavily on players that are over 30 and showing signs of decline (think another year for Bosh and Wade, Millsap, Horford Korver).

Finally that is just the playoff teams. Which lottery teams are not going to just pass us, but gain 10 games on us from this year. The wizards with signing durant is one possiblity, but that seems really really unlikely that he wants to join wall, a beat of Beal and little else. The Knicks, Nets, Philly, Orlando? Tough to see a leap there.

Basically it seems like two people are going nuts right now over two losses in a tough matchup with one starter and one rotation player not playing and a third starter really banged up.

Quote from: celticsclay on April 21, 2016, 03:59:34 PM

Quote from: Smart457 on April 21, 2016, 03:40:18 PM

I was debating whether we will even make the playoffs next year with a friend and we came to the conclusion that it's a possibility we won't. There are some what ifs so I'm not too worried but it does concern me that we could have gotten some decent draft picks but instead went for the playoffs the last two years. Maybe we have Winslow if we missed last year's playoffs and we have Hield with this years and the Nets pick.

The scenario we agreed on was:

Horford resigning with Hawks - seems unlikely but Hawks want to. If they compete with Cavs I think they keep the team together.

Derozen staying with Toronto - good possibility

Wizards getting Durant or Bulls improving - somewhat unlikely but could happen.

Pacers and Pistons making the next step - Likely

Celtics drafting Ingram - you have to play the rookie. He will ultimately cost us wins in the short term.

Seems like a good possibility that the Celtics will be gunning for the last two playoff spots with Miami and the Hornets.

So how about some early predictions. Anyone with a weak stomach and still invested in this current playoff push can just ignore the post.

A few things We are getting a top 5 pick which is more than any other playoff team right now. Some (like Miami) don't even own their own pick. Of all the teams in the playoffs we are also close to the youngest team. At least some of Rozier, Smart, KO, Mickey should improve and be better next year if not all of them. So it seems unlikely that these teams are all going to pass us. Especially when a lot of them (Hawks, Heat in particular) rely heavily on players that are over 30 and showing signs of decline (think another year for Bosh and Wade, Millsap, Horford Korver).

Finally that is just the playoff teams. Which lottery teams are not going to just pass us, but gain 10 games on us from this year. The wizards with signing durant is one possiblity, but that seems really really unlikely that he wants to join wall, a beat of Beal and little else. The Knicks, Nets, Philly, Orlando? Tough to see a leap there.

Basically it seems like two people are going nuts right now over two losses in a tough matchup with one starter and one rotation player not playing and a third starter really banged up.

And that is why the most likely scenario is subtle improvement. 

The Wiz could definitely improve, they were a good team last year.  Bosh isn't playing and Miami has young guys like Winslow.  The Pistons should be much better.  The Knicks and Philly should improve and Orlando could be quite a bit better.

You also need to factor in that the West should be quite a bit better next year as teams like the Jazz and TWolves improve.  Those types of things could cost 4-5 wins. 

Essentially as the Celtics improve many other teams that are a bit behind them are improving possibly negating that improvement showing up as extra wins, especially if the Celtics lose size and veteran scoring (Turner and Sully) and replace them with young players with upside. 

It is also important to remember that this team has been playing pretty poorly lately and has yet to win a playoff game, albeit with injuries.

I am excited about this summer and the roster improving but it is entirely possible that there isn't much for Danny to pull the trigger on and picks are never guarantees, especially the 3rd-6th picks this particular draft.

Quote from: passesofftodj on April 21, 2016, 04:10:16 PM

Quote from: celticsclay on April 21, 2016, 03:59:34 PM

Quote from: Smart457 on April 21, 2016, 03:40:18 PM

I was debating whether we will even make the playoffs next year with a friend and we came to the conclusion that it's a possibility we won't. There are some what ifs so I'm not too worried but it does concern me that we could have gotten some decent draft picks but instead went for the playoffs the last two years. Maybe we have Winslow if we missed last year's playoffs and we have Hield with this years and the Nets pick.

The scenario we agreed on was:

Horford resigning with Hawks - seems unlikely but Hawks want to. If they compete with Cavs I think they keep the team together.

Derozen staying with Toronto - good possibility

Wizards getting Durant or Bulls improving - somewhat unlikely but could happen.

Pacers and Pistons making the next step - Likely

Celtics drafting Ingram - you have to play the rookie. He will ultimately cost us wins in the short term.

Seems like a good possibility that the Celtics will be gunning for the last two playoff spots with Miami and the Hornets.

So how about some early predictions. Anyone with a weak stomach and still invested in this current playoff push can just ignore the post.

A few things We are getting a top 5 pick which is more than any other playoff team right now. Some (like Miami) don't even own their own pick. Of all the teams in the playoffs we are also close to the youngest team. At least some of Rozier, Smart, KO, Mickey should improve and be better next year if not all of them. So it seems unlikely that these teams are all going to pass us. Especially when a lot of them (Hawks, Heat in particular) rely heavily on players that are over 30 and showing signs of decline (think another year for Bosh and Wade, Millsap, Horford Korver).

Finally that is just the playoff teams. Which lottery teams are not going to just pass us, but gain 10 games on us from this year. The wizards with signing durant is one possiblity, but that seems really really unlikely that he wants to join wall, a beat of Beal and little else. The Knicks, Nets, Philly, Orlando? Tough to see a leap there.

Basically it seems like two people are going nuts right now over two losses in a tough matchup with one starter and one rotation player not playing and a third starter really banged up.

And that is why the most likely scenario is subtle improvement. 

The Wiz could definitely improve, they were a good team last year.  Bosh isn't playing and Miami has young guys like Winslow.  The Pistons should be much better.  The Knicks and Philly should improve and Orlando could be quite a bit better.

You also need to factor in that the West should be quite a bit better next year as teams like the Jazz and TWolves improve.  Those types of things could cost 4-5 wins. 

Essentially as the Celtics improve many other teams that are a bit behind them are improving possibly negating that improvement showing up as extra wins, especially if the Celtics lose size and veteran scoring (Turner and Sully) and replace them with young players with upside. 

It is also important to remember that this team has been playing pretty poorly lately and has yet to win a playoff game, albeit with injuries.

I am excited about this summer and the roster improving but it is entirely possible that there isn't much for Danny to pull the trigger on and picks are never guarantees, especially the 3rd-6th picks this particular draft.

I mean this seems like it is just being ludicrously pessimistic for the sake of being pessimstic in response to two playoff losses. Yes some of those young teams will get better, but also a lot of teams will get worse. Sure Twolves and Jazz could be better (and even the lakers), but then the old guard teams like Memphis, Clippers, Houston, Dallas all figure to be worse.

We are pretty much the youngest team in the playoffs and also have the highest draft pick of any one in the playoffs. Us not making the playoffs is the least likely outcome out of us improving, us staying the same, us getting passed by a few teams, us getting passed by 4 or more teams in the East. Heck the patriots may not make the playoffs next year, but it doesn't seem very likely either.

I vaguely remember some of these exact same posts/worries after last year's playoffs, and look where we are now.

Quote from: Evantime34 on April 21, 2016, 03:59:20 PM

This team is trending up. They have improved every year since Brad has become the coach, I don't expect that to change.

A lot of the reasoning for the C's not making the playoffs this year are the same reasons you are stating for them not making the playoffs next year. Those reasons proved wrong this year, and will still be wrong next year.

It takes a really strong will to be proven wrong then still hold the same beliefs.

This prevailing notion comes from people not being able to reconcile how well the team performed during the regular season with the players they have.

The only way the C's don't make the playoffs is if the team is completely snake bitten by injuries.

I never posed this question last year so I'm a little confused by your statement that I was proven wrong.

Last year the east didn't look too good so it was hard to see the Celtics not making the playoffs.

I vaguely remember some of these exact same posts/worries after last year's playoffs, and look where we are now.