Heinsohn: Horford is not a great player

[CoachBo]

Horford might not be a great player, but he is a winning player... Except for the year he tore his pec (and they were in 3rd in the East before the injury), his teams have consistently made the playoffs and he has 2 NCAA titles.

His main issue is that he doesn't force the issue. He's content to make the "right play", which is usually the unselfish one for him. He blends in well... Sometimes a bit too well. It's easily lost that he was an integral part of the best offense and top 10 defense last year and he anchored the 2nd best defense in the NBA this year with Korver, Teague, and Bazemore on the perimeter.

If you would give a max to Marc Gasol, why wouldn't you give it to Horford, who also has a game that will age well. If the market dictates that he's a max player, I would give it to him and add another AS caliber talent to assemble a legitimate Championship squad. For good measure, how about Joakim Noah, at the right price, for a Gators reunion?

This.

[chambers]

I think Al Horford is a great player, I just don't think he's worth a max slot on our team.

[Fred Roberts]

He is very, very solid. No doubt. Maybe he can be had for less than max, or max for only 3 seasons? Full max = no.

[LooseCannon]

Horford is good but I don't think he is the difference maker a lot on here think he is.   He is also too old to invest max in unless you are getting a young true #1 star like an AD.

He's more of a difference maker than Rasheed Wallace circa 2004.

[crimson_stallion]

Horford might not be a great player, but he is a winning player... Except for the year he tore his pec (and they were in 3rd in the East before the injury), his teams have consistently made the playoffs and he has 2 NCAA titles.

His main issue is that he doesn't force the issue. He's content to make the "right play", which is usually the unselfish one for him. He blends in well... Sometimes a bit too well. It's easily lost that he was an integral part of the best offense and top 10 defense last year and he anchored the 2nd best defense in the NBA this year with Korver, Teague, and Bazemore on the perimeter.

If you would give a max to Marc Gasol, why wouldn't you give it to Horford, who also has a game that will age well. If the market dictates that he's a max player, I would give it to him and add another AS caliber talent to assemble a legitimate Championship squad. For good measure, how about Joakim Noah, at the right price, for a Gators reunion?

That's perfectly fine.  Everybody loves a winning player, and I respect that about him. 

But a winning player is something we have lots of.  You could say that about Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Amir Johnson, Avery Bradley.  We have heaps of guys on this team who aren't great players, but who are "winning" players (in that they do all the small scrappy things that help teams win).

That's not what this team needs though. 

We need a great player.  We need a go-to guy.  We need the type of guy who can put the team on his shoulder and carry us when the game is on the line.  If we want to take the next step from 'good' team to a contender, that's what it will take to get us there.

I don't get, for example, how people can praise Horford as being a winner for carrying his team to so many playoff appearances - but then ignore the fact that he has never won an ECF game.  Yet that is the first criticism people throw onto guys like Carmelo when labelling them as losers. 

Oh and I would absolutely not offer Marc Gasol a max contract at this point in his career.  No chance in hell.

[nickagneta]

Horford isn't a superstar. He isn't a top ten player in the league talent.

But he is a great player.

He was and never will be a #1 offensive option but he is a very good to great 2nd offensive option and a phenomenal third option. He is also when of the better team defenders in the league, a plus rebounder, a great locker room guy and a born leader. He is a complete and great two way player and that is something this team sorely lacks.

He still has lots of excellent years left in him and given almost everyone in the league will have cap space for a $20+million a year player, there will be teams lining up ready to give him his max deal. That means the market will have decided he is worth that money.

Add him to this team and remove Sully and this team just got 5 wins better and probably becomes a definite second round of the playoffs team. Add Horford and another star, this team becomes a contender.

Why? Because Horford and that other star are great players and that is what this team needs to add in the off season.

[walker834]

Tommy's timing on this is a bit odd. Why stir the pot?  We are playing Atlanta?  Maybe he's trying to get them to defer away from millsap?  I sort of agree with him though.  Horford is very good.

Tommy should know better though but never kept him from speaking his mind before.  The media was going to run with this though. 

Too much political correctness.  Johnny Most would have been spitting on millsap by now and calling him a dirty terrible no good rotten player.

[LooseCannon]

Horford isn't a superstar. He isn't a top ten player in the league talent.

But he is a great player.

If you look at the three main advanced metrics that can be found on basketball-reference.com, WS/48, BPM, and VORP, the players who are closest to him in value across all three are probably Jimmy Butler and Damien Lillard.  I'd be very willing to believe he has been equal value to those players this season and probably will over the next couple of seasons.

[crimson_stallion]

Horford isn't a superstar. He isn't a top ten player in the league talent.

But he is a great player.

He was and never will be a #1 offensive option but he is a very good to great 2nd offensive option and a phenomenal third option. He is also when of the better team defenders in the league and a plus rebounder and a guy that is great in the locker room and a born leader. He is a complete and great two way player and that is something this team sorely lacks.

He still has lots of excellent years left in him and given almost everyone in the league will have cap space for a $20+million a year player, there will be teams lining up ready to give him his max deal. That means the market will have decided he is worth that money.

Add him to this team and remove Sully and this team just got 5 wins better and probably becomes a definite second round of the playoffs team. As. Horford and another star, this team becomes a contender.

Why? Because Horford and that other star are great players and that is what this team needs to add in the off season.

I wouldn't call Horford a great second option.  I would call Kyrie Irving / Klay Thompson / Demar Derozan / Kawhi Leonard / Damian Lillard great second options.

To me a great second option is somebody who is good enough to be a first option, but is a second option simply because there is somebody above them in the food chain who is even better then they are.

If you are a team who's ambition is to just to try and win a playoff series, then I would call Horford a good second option and a great third option.

If you are a team who's ambition is to contend for a title, then I'd call Horford a below average second option and a good third option.

Remember when Miami was contending not too long ago they had Dwyane Wade as a second option and Chris Bosh as a third option.  Al Horford is not better then Chris Bosh. 

Right now Cleveland are contending (maybe) and they have Kyrie Irving as a second option and Kevin Love as a third option.  Al Horford isn't better then Kevin Love.

I'd say Horford is (at best) on par with Bosh and Love, and even that is a maybe.  Honestly I'd probably take a healthy Bosh over Horford, and admittedly I'd probably take  healthy Love over Horford too.  But he's in the ballpark of those guys.

I really don't get how you could call Horford a plus rebounder though. In the last two seasons  he's averaged 7.2 and 7.3 rebounds per game and has had rebounding percentages of 13.4% and 12.4%.   Those are really around average at best for a guy an NBA PF/C. 

To give you some idea,  here are the rebound rates for some of our guys over the last two seasons:

* Kelly Olynyk: 11.7%, 10.7%
* Jonas Jerebko: 12.5%, 13%
* Tyler Zeller: 14.7%, 13.3%
* Amir Johnson: 13.3%, 14.9%
* Jared Sullinger: 15.4%, 18.7%

Basically the only guy in our lineup that Horford would be an upgrade on (rebound wise) would be Olynyk.   Other then that he is at best a sidestep, and at worse a major downwards step. 

I also disagree that he is one of the best team defenders in the NBA.  I would say he is an above average team defender - maybe good at a stretch.  I don't feel that he is anywhere near being an outstanding one.

[crimson_stallion]

Horford isn't a superstar. He isn't a top ten player in the league talent.

But he is a great player.

If you look at the three main advanced metrics that can be found on basketball-reference.com, WS/48, BPM, and VORP, the players who are closest to him in value across all three are probably Jimmy Butler and Damien Lillard.  I'd be very willing to believe he has been equal value to those players this season and probably will over the next couple of seasons.

I like advanced metrics, but they aren't the only things I go off. 

You give me a choice between Jimmy Butler, Damien Lillard and Al Horford - I can assure you Horford wouldn't even made the conversation.  Butler and Lillard are far, far superior players.

We need to be careful not to take advanced metrics out of context.  Their aim is not to tell you how good or talented a player is, they exist to tell you how much better a team is with that player on the court, versus when he is not on the court.

It's important knowledge to have, but a great RPM (for example) doesn't suggest that somebody is a great player.

For example, Al Horford has a +3.28 RPM. 

By comparison:
* Jared Sullinger's RPM is +3.25
* Jae Crowder's RPM is +3.02
* Kelly Olynyk's RPM is +3.00
* Amir Johnson's RPM is +2.81

Would you say that those four guys are all as good as (in Sully's case), or very close to as good as (in Jae, Kelly and Amir's cases) Horford?  If the advanced stats are all you go off, then it would be stupid to sign Horford to a max when we could get either of those four guys playing the PF spot for far, far less money.

I mean hell, Sully doesn't only match Horford on the advanced stats (RPM, Net Rtg), he also is right up there with him in the box score stats too.

Obviously we all know Horford is a better player then Sully overall, but there are certain things we know that stats can't back.  And that is coming from me - somebody borderline obsessed with stats lol

Horford is correctly a #2 guy (after Millsap) on a good, but not great, team.  Even with him as a #2 guy, that Hawks team isnt good enough to be a contender. 

This Celtics team is just as good as that Hawks team (identical regular season record) and so making Horford a #2 option on this Celtics team also will not make us a contender. 

If we can get a legitimate star player (e.g. Durant, Cousins) who can take over as our #1 guy, then we can put Thomas down as our #2 guy, and bring Horford in as our #3 guy.  I think in that type of scenario he can be really effective, and we could be a contender.  But even then our window is very short, because Horford is already visibly declining (you can see it not only in his stats, but from watching him too) and isn't likely to last more than another year or two at his current level of productivity. 

So even then you need to ask yourself - is it worth paying something like $100M over four years just to give yourself a one or two year window of contention? That's basically what Brooklyn did with the KG/Pierce trade, and we can see where they ended up. 

There is certainly no point wasting $25M a year in cap space on the guy unless you know for certain that you are getting that #1 guy - because without that guy, Horford doesn't make us that much better then we already are.  He's an incremental upgrade, not a revolutionary one.

[bopna]

Id say you only take a risk on Horford if it is 100% certain Durant is coming. Otherwise, id pass.

[crimson_stallion]

Id say you only take a risk on Horford if it is 100% certain Durant is coming. Otherwise, id pass.

That's a fair call

[Moranis]

Horford is a A-/B+ type player.  That is a good player but probably not a great player.  That said, Horford would be the best player on the Celtics, just like he is on the Hawks, and if you can improve with that type of player you do it.

[jambr380]

Horford is a A-/B+ type player.  That is a good player but probably not a great player.  That said, Horford would be the best player on the Celtics, just like he is on the Hawks, and if you can improve with that type of player you do it.

I think that is a stretch - I know his defense isn't as good, but I believe IT is a far superior offensive player and has the ability to take over a game.

Also, I am not so sure I don't take pre-injury Crowder and pre-injury Bradley over Horford, too. If not, Horford doesn't win out by much and he has considerably more mileage on his body.

[Otsje P]

Horford is a A-/B+ type player.  That is a good player but probably not a great player.  That said, Horford would be the best player on the Celtics, just like he is on the Hawks, and if you can improve with that type of player you do it.

I think Millsap is Atlanta's best player and it's not even close. Personally I would say Teague is better than Horford as well.

I think he is the third best player on a team that's not really much better than we are. In my opinion that would make Horford a bit overrated. Yes he would be our best big, but he wouldn't make us that much better. Just a slight improvement, not worth the money he would be asking. Not even factoring in his age.

He has always been the third wheel to. In 08, when they fought us to game 7, he was their third best player behind iso Joe and Josh Smith. Between those years and the last 2 seasons he was their best player, and it took them nowhere.

Sure, he is a very good player, and behind Millsap the best big of these series, but he is not a true star player.

Very good, but not great. In my opinion.