Horford is so horribly overrated...

[crimson_stallion]

Man, watching Horford today has really changed my view on him. I haven't seen him play for a while and didn't realise just how far he has fallen.  He is criminally overrated on this forum. 

Despite being a "smaller" big man and only being 29 years old, he seems to have the mobility of a 33-35 year old seven footer - horribly slow both laterally and point to point. 

To make matters worse he just doesn't seem to do much out there. 

With the exception of a couple of jumpers that he contested, he looked pretty slow and inactive on defence.  A couple of times I noticed him standing and staring while a Boston player went straight past him for an easy layup - didn't even TRY to contest it.  He just stands there like a lumbering oaf. 

On offence he doesn't look much better either.  He just stands around and does nothing off the ball, and with the ball he seems to have zero offensive game left outside of just chucking up open jumpers.

To make matters worse, his lack of mobility looks to have limited his versatility.  He's can't really play the PF spot because he's way too immobile to defend quicker fours, and yet he is too lacking in length and physicality to defend bigger centers - so he's pretty much a tweener.

I remember Horford of old being quite athletic, aggressive, really active.  The Horford of today looks nothing like that.  This guy seriously looks like he has maybe 2 years of starting caliber production left in him at most before he falls back to being an 18 MPG backup center.   

Millsap is 2 years older than Horford and yet he's active and aggressive (on both ends of the court), he fights for rebounds, he contests shots, he looks quick and athletic, he's frequently in attack mode.  Millsap is 31 and plays like he's 26.  Horford is 29 plays like he's 34.  Those two guys are on entire different levels.

I was pretty high on signing Horford this offseason if we have the opportunity, thinking he could be a nice #3 guy if we pick up a big name like Cousins or Durant.  Not anymore.  Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko all look far more mobile and active on defence than Horford does these days, and for a fraction of the cost.  Even Sullinger looks more active than Horford on both ends of the court, and really no less mobile. 

It's not about the mediocre numbers Horford put up today, because I know everybody has bad games sometimes.  It's about the things I see with my own eyes when he's out there - he has VERY visibly declined.  He looks like Alonzo Mourning did late in his career.

I'm not a huge fan of Kevin Love (game or attitude) or Dwight Howard (attitude) but I have to admit - those guys both like two levels above Horford at this point in time. 

[jambr380]

Yeah, I hope Danny doesn't just offer a max contract without making sure that Horford can perform as he looked considerably worse than Amir out there (and much less active). Like you, I was going into this game to focus on Horford and I am not sure what to think anymore. On one hand, he may be the catalyst that brings in another star; on the other hand, he may eat up all of our cap space and screw us for years.

I don't think signing him would necessarily be a disaster since he would basically fit into our game plan, but he could be colossally ineffective a year or two after he signs.

[crimson_stallion]

Agreed.

The idea of giving him upwards of $25M a year for the next 4 years is extremely frightening.

I know it sounds crazy, but i dont know if Horford is a legit upgrade over Sully.  He might be a bit better all round right now (debatable) but two years from now Sully will likely be far more productive, and would probably cost much less.

It sounds harsh i know, but from what i saw today Horfprd didn't really look like a clear starting caliber guy.  He already looks borderline 6th man material and he's not even 30 yet.

At least Kevin Love can still score and rebound at a high level...and at least Howard can still move, rebound and defend respectably.  Horford looks like Troy Murphy out there.

I was 50/50 I whether I'd go for Monroe over Horford - not anymore.  Monrie is a no brainer.

[knuckleballer]

What if giving him a max is part of the condition of signing Durant?  If that's the case, I think it's a no brainer.  Otherwise, I agree that it's too much and we should go in another direction.

[TheSundanceKid]

What if giving him a max is part of the condition of signing Durant?  If that's the case, I think it's a no brainer.  Otherwise, I agree that it's too much and we should go in another direction.

I just don't think that is the case though. There was like 1 report about it that was likely because they are both FAs this summer. I doubt there is any significant connection between the two

[BornReady]

What if giving him a max is part of the condition of signing Durant?  If that's the case, I think it's a no brainer.  Otherwise, I agree that it's too much and we should go in another direction.

I just don't think that is the case though. There was like 1 report about it that was likely because they are both FAs this summer. I doubt there is any significant connection between the two

There's pretty much 0 connection between the two
As Durant is going to sign with a team based on what they have
Not what they can have if he signed there

I mean if something changes to horford or another team looking at signing Durant
And we sign horford to get Durant
We would be pretty much screwed on that deal

[knuckleballer]

What if giving him a max is part of the condition of signing Durant?  If that's the case, I think it's a no brainer.  Otherwise, I agree that it's too much and we should go in another direction.

I just don't think that is the case though. There was like 1 report about it that was likely because they are both FAs this summer. I doubt there is any significant connection between the two

I remember reading that Zach Lowe said Horford is someone Durant would like to play with.  I don't know where he got that idea, but he's one of the more reliable basketball reporters.  Anyway, I'm sure Durant would want more talent added to the team and Horford wouldn't cost the Brooklyn picks.  Even if he's overpaid, we have other guys at below market deals and the salary cap will make another huge jump in 2017.

[chilidawg]

Let's remember it's just one game.  Maybe he's fighting a nagging injury.  His numbers for the year, both advanced and traditional, are still pretty good.

That said, I agree with you about the way he looked tonight.

[crimson_stallion]

Let's remember it's just one game.  Maybe he's fighting a nagging injury.  His numbers for the year, both advanced and traditional, are still pretty good.

That said, I agree with you about the way he looked tonight.

I did consider this (that it's only one game) but as I said, I was concerned about what I saw from him moreso then  I was about his actual box score numbers.

I look at Olynyk for example, and I feel like when he isn't producing on the box score, he's always doing a stack of other things to contribute to the team.  I feel the same way about Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, etc.  Those guys are all really active players who always seem to be contributing in some way or other, even when their box score numbers look underwhelming.

But the part that concerned me with Horford was that when he wasn't producing on paper, I didn't feel like he was doing anything else to impact the game either.

His effort on the boards was pretty ho-hum.  His effort on defence didn't look much better. He didn't look especially active moving without the ball, didn't show me much (if anything) in terms of hustle or leadership.  He put absolutely zero pressure on the interior defence, since all he was doing (from a scoring perspective) was chucking open jumpers.

I can't help but feel that Horford is starting to look like a poor man's Ryan Anderson (since he's not as good a shooter).

He made a couple of nice passes (as Horford always does) and he clearly has a nice jumper, but that's really all I saw from him.  I felt like Sully, Olynyk and Jerebko all impacted the game more for us then Horford did for them...and Amir Johnson outplayed Horford so badly it was almost embarrassing.
 
As far as advanced stats go, Horford Real Plus Minus and Net Rating  (+2.97 and +12) are both lower than Sully's (+3.75 and +14).

In terms of regular stats, Horford's Per36 numbers (17.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists) are also no better than Sullinger's (15.8 points, 12.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists). 

So regardless of how you look at it (either on box score stats, advanced stats, or eye test) Sully seems to be every bit as effective as Horford. 

So if you consider all that and then also consider that:

1) Sully is still developing (versus Horford, who is clearly starting to drop off)
2) We could probably get Sully for $15M a year at most, while Horford would cost ~$25M

I'm actually leaning towards Sully right now, if those are the two options I'm stuck between.

[chilidawg]

Let's remember it's just one game.  Maybe he's fighting a nagging injury.  His numbers for the year, both advanced and traditional, are still pretty good.

That said, I agree with you about the way he looked tonight.

I did consider this (that it's only one game) but as I said, I was concerned about what I saw from him moreso then  I was about his actual box score numbers.

I look at Olynyk for example, and I feel like when he isn't producing on the box score, he's always doing a stack of other things to contribute to the team.  I feel the same way about Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, etc.  Those guys are all really active players who always seem to be contributing in some way or other, even when their box score numbers look underwhelming.

But the part that concerned me with Horford was that when he wasn't producing on paper, I didn't feel like he was doing anything else to impact the game either.

His effort on the boards was pretty ho-hum.  His effort on defence didn't look much better. He didn't look especially active moving without the ball, didn't show me much (if anything) in terms of hustle or leadership.   

He made a couple of nice passes (as Horford always does) and he clearly has a nice jumper, but that's really all I saw from him.  I felt like Sully, Olynyk and Jerebko all impacted the game more for us then Horford did for them...and Amir Johnson outplayed Horford so badly it was almost embarrassing.
 
As far as advanced stats go, Horford Real Plus Minus and Net Rating  (+2.97 and +12) are both lower than Sully's (+3.75 and +14).

In terms of regular stats, Horford's Per36 numbers (17.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists) are also no better than Sullinger's (15.8 points, 12.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists). 

So regardless of how you look at it (either on box score stats, advanced stats, or eye test) Sully seems to be every bit as effective as Horford. 

So if you consider all that and then also consider that:

1) Sully is still developing (versus Horford, who is clearly starting to drop off)
2) We could probably get Sully for $15M a year at most, while Horford would cost ~$25M

I'm actually leaning towards Sully right now, if those are the two options I'm stuck between.

 

Good points about the stats, and I agree with you about how Horford looked tonight.  Sully didn't have much of a game either though.

[crimson_stallion]

That's true.

It's just that I dunno - for all of Sully's faults, I do feel that he plays hard.  I feel his conditioning hurts him (regardless of what others might say on the matter) but I do believe that when he's out there, he's usually playing as hard as he can.

He's very inconsistent from one game to the next, he has a lot of stinkers, and he makes a lot of bonehead plays in crunch time...but at least he seems to always play hard and with passion. 

I just didn't see that today from Horford.  Maybe he's just in "end of season" wind down mode? Trying to preserve his energy for the playoffs? 

[knuckleballer]

What if giving him a max is part of the condition of signing Durant?  If that's the case, I think it's a no brainer.  Otherwise, I agree that it's too much and we should go in another direction.

I just don't think that is the case though. There was like 1 report about it that was likely because they are both FAs this summer. I doubt there is any significant connection between the two

I remember reading that Zach Lowe said Horford is someone Durant would like to play with.  I don't know where he got that idea, but he's one of the more reliable basketball reporters.  Anyway, I'm sure Durant would want more talent added to the team and Horford wouldn't cost the Brooklyn picks.  Even if he's overpaid, we have other guys at below market deals and the salary cap will make another huge jump in 2017.

All reports out there are saying that Horford wants one more max contract before his career winds down.  I believe that a max contract for Horford next year would be about $25m for the next four years.

Durant to my understanding only wants to sign a one year deal so that he can max out his salary the following year.  That means any signing of Durant is potentially a 1 year rental. 

Even if the Horford/Durant rumors did have some truth to them, would you really pay $25M/4 for Horford just for the sake of getting Durant signed for one guaranteed year? I don't think I'd take that gamble. 

I'd consider taking the gamble on Howard because his reduced offensive production is partially justified by the fact that he is playing behind Harden (one of the top scorers and ball hogs in the NBA) and so if he can remain somewhat healthy (it's a big IF) there is a legit chance he could revitalise his career here and return to being an 18/12 guy and a legit rim protector.  That means that even if we missed out on Durant, it'd kind be worth taking the gamble on Howard anyway.

Likewise Kevin Love is probably worth it because even though he is a fairly high risk from an injury standpoint, he's only 27 years old and you more or less know what you are going to get from him as a minimum.  Even if he never goes back to being the 25/13 beast he once was (and I seriously doubt he would) you can still depend on him giving you at least around 18/10 if he's in a major role. 

Horford on the other hand is a really high risk with none of the potential pay-off.  He's averaging 15/7 this year in 32 minutes despite playing on a team that has no major stars, and watching him play it really does look like he's on the decline in a big way. 

The problem with Horford is when you weigh up the upside vs the downside.

For Howard:
* The best case is that he leaves Houston, gets a bigger offensive role, flourishes, and goes back to being an 18 point, 13 rebounds, 2 block a game guy - has a major impact and helps us become a contender.

* The worst case is he struggles with major injuries and becomes Amare Stoudemire 2.0


For Love:
* The best case is that he leaves Cleveland, gets a bigger offensive role without Lebron/Irving ahead of him, and goes back to being a 22 point, 12 rebound guy - has a major impact, and helps to make us a contender.

* The worst case is that he leaves Cleveland, continues to put up career low numbers (in the 17 / 9 range) and stgruggles with injuries along the way


For Horford:
* The best case is that he doesn't decline significantly, gives us the same level of production he's he's giving in Atlanta now (15/7/3) and continues to give us fairly steady production at that level for at least three of the four years

* The worst case is that he declines dramatically, becomes a borderline starter (at around 12/6 a year) as early as next year, and we get stuck with a $25m/year sixth man for the next 4 years.

I feel like Horford offers similar downside to Love/Howard options with none of the upside.  Best case is he pretty much remains who he is, and right now the "who he is" isn't all that impressive. 

First preference I'd go hard after a Cousins trade.  If I can't get anywhere then I'd make a run at Drummond - but I know he's 99% sure to be off the market, so I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket. 

If neither Cousins nor Drummond is available, I would try to make a run at a Greg Monroe trade with Milwaukee, who seem to be open to moving him for the right price.  He's not a a true star, but he's young, he's consistent, he's healthy, and right now he is better than Horford while also having higher upside.

If I can't get Monroe, then I will talk Cleveland, Houston and Philly about hopefully making a run at Love, Howard or Noel.

If ALL of the above fail, then I would have a very long hard think about whether to make a run at Horford, or just re-sign Sully.  While Horford is probably the better player right now, Sully really isn't far off at all...would cost probably half the money...and will likely be far better than Horford 2-3 years from now.

Might sound crazy, but after today Horford has dropped wayyyyyyyy down on my list.

You make good points, but as Chilidawg pointed out, this was just one game.  I was surprised how poorly he played tonight as I hadn't read that his game had declined much.  I wouldn't hesitate to give a max to the Horford I have watched in the past and he's only 29.  Was it just a bad game or has his game dropped off a lot?  We'll both know a lot more after the playoffs.

Hopefully, Durant is a real possibility.  If so, this will be a really interesting conversation this summer.

[crimson_stallion]

You make good points, but as Chilidawg pointed out, this was just one game.  I was surprised how poorly he played tonight as I hadn't read that his game had declined much.  I wouldn't hesitate to give a max to the Horford I have watched in the past and he's only 29.  Was it just a bad game or has his game dropped off a lot?  We'll both know a lot more after the playoffs.

Hopefully, Durant is a real possibility.  If so, this will be a really interesting conversation this summer.

I agree. 

I used to love Horford as a player back in the old Atlanta days, when Josh Smith and Joe Johnson were still there.

If there is one thing I remembered Horford for it was probably his mobility, his toughness/physicality and his willingness to do the dirty work. 

That is, I guess, what surprised me the most today...because I saw no signs of any of that.  Even if it is just one game, I kinda feel concerned. 

One of the biggest selling points for Horford on here lately has been his attitude/personality.  Today that seemed like a weakness, rather than a strength. 

I have an old saying that even when your game isn't there, you can always play hard.  I don't think I have EVER seen Avery Bradley, KG, Bass, IT, Turner or Jae Crowder take a game off in a Celtics uniform.  Even if they are playing hurt/tired/demorilised they always put in 110% effort. 

I don't consider Horford to be an especially high production player (e.g. he's not exactly a 20/10 guy) so I just naturally expect to see more in terms of intangibles.  if he wants a max deal as a 15/7 guy, then he should sure as hell be making up for his lack of production by playing harder than everybody else. 

Maybe us Celtics fans just get spoiled watching guys like Crowder/Bradley/Garnett/Bass for so long, but it's hard for me to watch an effort like this and not be dissapointed - even if it is just one game.

For example, this Boston team has to have among the worst rim protection of any of the top 15 teams, so a guy like Horford (known for his ability to score in the paint) should have had a field day in the paint - but he didn't even ATTEMPT to get established in the paint. I would have liked to see him have the basketball IQ to recognise his opponent had a weakness down there, and to try to take advantage....but he was prefectly happy just standing around the perimeter throwing up jumpers. 

Four years ago (2009/10 season) Horford took 66.5% of his field goals inside 10 feet, and only 16.5% of them beyond 16 feet.  He had a free throw rate of 31.9% and an scoring efficiency of 1.36 points Per FGA (excellent). 

This year Horford has taken 43.7% of his shots inside 10 feet, and 47.5% beyond 16 feet, and has a Free Throw Rate of 12.2% and a scoring efficiency of 1.19 Points Per FGA (woeful).

It seems clear to me that the injuries early in his career have changed how he plays the game, and have transformed him from a tough, physical interior presence...into a soft and inefficient jumpshooter.
 
Watching him play today just reinforced what those stats show, because he made no effort at all to establish himself inside against what is (ultimately) one of the smaller and less impressive interior defending teams.

After watching today's game, do you guys honestly think that we could contend San Antonio / Golden State with a starting five of Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Durant and Horford?  I'm not convinced after today's game.  We'd get absolutely slaughterered in the paint and on the boards.

[TheSundanceKid]

What if giving him a max is part of the condition of signing Durant?  If that's the case, I think it's a no brainer.  Otherwise, I agree that it's too much and we should go in another direction.

I just don't think that is the case though. There was like 1 report about it that was likely because they are both FAs this summer. I doubt there is any significant connection between the two

I remember reading that Zach Lowe said Horford is someone Durant would like to play with.  I don't know where he got that idea, but he's one of the more reliable basketball reporters.  Anyway, I'm sure Durant would want more talent added to the team and Horford wouldn't cost the Brooklyn picks.  Even if he's overpaid, we have other guys at below market deals and the salary cap will make another huge jump in 2017.

Zach Lowe does tend to be on it. But signing Horford isn't free. It would mean no Evan Turner, Zeller and Sully would likely need to be let go to manage the cap in future years. I'm not even sure he replaces the value of those guys. And at the end of it you still are hoping Durant says yes.

[mctyson]

To make matters worse he just doesn't seem to do much out there. 

He didn't have a great game but you have to realize that he is exactly the type of 4/5 the Cs need for the starting lineup, because he CAN SHOOT.