Why don't advanced stats like Bradley's defense?

[LarBrd33]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

Oh that's pretty good. I thought smart was oddly low on some stats like defensive rating.  I read that a while ago though.

[alldaboston]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

Oh that's pretty good. I thought smart was oddly low on some stats like defensive rating.  I read that a while ago though.

I think earlier he was lower, but that was partly bc he was coming back from the injury and his minutes were wacky and stuff

[mmmmm]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

The error bars on DRPM are so gigantic, that's basically saying that there is no difference.

[Dino Pitino]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

The error bars on DRPM are so gigantic, that's basically saying that there is no difference.

Can you explain this more?

[CelticGuardian]

You know, not all stats have to be accounted... People only really use advanced stats to justify keeping a seemingly ineffective player... Avery can ball, we know this because we've seen it.

[kozlodoev]

He has a negative Defensive Boxscore Plus Minus.  His DRPM is negative also, and ranked quite low leaguewide.  He has 2.6 Defensive Win Shares on the season, which is fine, but not close to top 20.  His defensive rating is 106, which is not horrible, but not particularly great either.  His steal percentage of 2.2 is fine but far from exceptional.

Part of it is that these metrics are awful measures of defensive ability. Another part is that his defense is somewhat overrated.

You are right about #1 but the debate comes from both Lillard and McCollum stating that they believe he is the best.  And they would know much better than anyone on this blog.

The fact that Lillard and McCollum doesn't like having someone in their face when they dribble the ball doesn't necessarily make them an overall impact defender.

What about guys like Steph Curry who praised Bradley's defense?

You don't really understand the core of the argument, do you?

[mmmmm]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

The error bars on DRPM are so gigantic, that's basically saying that there is no difference.

Can you explain this more?

Rather than me just repeating explanations that have been well stated by others, I recommend the following Wages of Win article, which goes into some of the issues with adjusted-plus-minus methods at length:

http://wagesofwins.com/2011/03/05/deconstructing-the-adjusted-plus-minus-model/

The net takeaway is that you should take RAPM with a gigantic grain of salt.

[wayupnorth]

He has a negative Defensive Boxscore Plus Minus.  His DRPM is negative also, and ranked quite low leaguewide.  He has 2.6 Defensive Win Shares on the season, which is fine, but not close to top 20.  His defensive rating is 106, which is not horrible, but not particularly great either.  His steal percentage of 2.2 is fine but far from exceptional.

Part of it is that these metrics are awful measures of defensive ability. Another part is that his defense is somewhat overrated.

You are right about #1 but the debate comes from both Lillard and McCollum stating that they believe he is the best.  And they would know much better than anyone on this blog.

The fact that Lillard and McCollum doesn't like having someone in their face when they dribble the ball doesn't necessarily make them an overall impact defender.

What about guys like Steph Curry who praised Bradley's defense?

You don't really understand the core of the argument, do you?

Hahaha that is one way to debate.

[saltlover]

This is from Basketball Reference's very lengthy explanation of Box Plus-Minus, written by the creator of the stat, Daniel Myers.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.

In other words, let common-sense be your guide for defense.  Part of common-sense is listening when the games best players say that someone is good at defense.  They all know who they can score on and who they can't.  If most everyone is saying the same couple of players, those are the good defenders.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

[Rondo9]

He has a negative Defensive Boxscore Plus Minus.  His DRPM is negative also, and ranked quite low leaguewide.  He has 2.6 Defensive Win Shares on the season, which is fine, but not close to top 20.  His defensive rating is 106, which is not horrible, but not particularly great either.  His steal percentage of 2.2 is fine but far from exceptional.

Part of it is that these metrics are awful measures of defensive ability. Another part is that his defense is somewhat overrated.

You are right about #1 but the debate comes from both Lillard and McCollum stating that they believe he is the best.  And they would know much better than anyone on this blog.

The fact that Lillard and McCollum doesn't like having someone in their face when they dribble the ball doesn't necessarily make them an overall impact defender.

What about guys like Steph Curry who praised Bradley's defense?

You don't really understand the core of the argument, do you?

I think I should elaborate, personally while Bradley is an excellent on ball defender I believe that defensive stats rate him poorly because plays alot with the bench. It's very tricky measure defensive worth which is why I often go with the eyetest and from what I see Bradley guards the elite point guards as well as any point guard. So I can see why the opponents praise Bradley's defense over the other guards

[Dino Pitino]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

The error bars on DRPM are so gigantic, that's basically saying that there is no difference.

Can you explain this more?

Rather than me just repeating explanations that have been well stated by others, I recommend the following Wages of Win article, which goes into some of the issues with adjusted-plus-minus methods at length:

http://wagesofwins.com/2011/03/05/deconstructing-the-adjusted-plus-minus-model/

The net takeaway is that you should take RAPM with a gigantic grain of salt.

After reading about the particular RPM that ESPN uses, with priors that include height and age, I'm good and ready to forget about it in favor of a better plus-minus metric, maybe one that's blended with a box score metric like some people have been clamoring for. I generally trust plus-minus metrics, and ESPN's just happens to be the most convenient to look up. But man, when you're docking rookies just for being rookies, with zero regard for individuality...when your metric gives players a boost just for being tall...nah, I need something better. The height thing, which I had always thought was literally a joke whenever I saw it mentioned, is probably a significant reason why Bradley's ESPN DRPM is so low.

[mmmmm]

Isn't smart pretty weak in advanced defensive stats as well?

He's 6th among PGs in DRPM. I'm still so shocked that Avery is 47th...

The error bars on DRPM are so gigantic, that's basically saying that there is no difference.

Can you explain this more?

Rather than me just repeating explanations that have been well stated by others, I recommend the following Wages of Win article, which goes into some of the issues with adjusted-plus-minus methods at length:

http://wagesofwins.com/2011/03/05/deconstructing-the-adjusted-plus-minus-model/

The net takeaway is that you should take RAPM with a gigantic grain of salt.

After reading about the particular RPM that ESPN uses, with priors that include height and age, I'm good and ready to forget about it in favor of a better plus-minus metric, maybe one that's blended with a box score metric like some people have been clamoring for. I generally trust plus-minus metrics, and ESPN's just happens to be the most convenient to look up. But man, when you're docking rookies just for being rookies, with zero regard for individuality...when your metric gives players a boost just for being tall...nah, I need something better. The height thing, which I had always thought was literally a joke whenever I saw it mentioned, is probably a significant reason why Bradley's ESPN DRPM is so low.

To me, there is no substitute for looking at the actual 5-man units, noting carefully which combinations work and which ones don't and who is on them.

I don't believe you can distill this down to a single number.

[guava_wrench]

Stats are just numbers. You still need to interpret them. That requires understanding the stats, what they account for, and what they don't account for.

[mmmmm]

Stats are just numbers. You still need to interpret them. That requires understanding the stats, what they account for, and what they don't account for.

Yup!

[td450]

He has a negative Defensive Boxscore Plus Minus.  His DRPM is negative also, and ranked quite low leaguewide.  He has 2.6 Defensive Win Shares on the season, which is fine, but not close to top 20.  His defensive rating is 106, which is not horrible, but not particularly great either.  His steal percentage of 2.2 is fine but far from exceptional.

Part of it is that these metrics are awful measures of defensive ability. Another part is that his defense is somewhat overrated.

You are right about #1 but the debate comes from both Lillard and McCollum stating that they believe he is the best.  And they would know much better than anyone on this blog.

The fact that Lillard and McCollum doesn't like having someone in their face when they dribble the ball doesn't necessarily make them an overall impact defender.

First off, that isn't a fact, because that's not what Lillard and McCollum said.

And even if it was, being able to stay in an elite ballhandler's face when they dribble may not be the only ability you need to have to be a great defender, but it is certainly the hardest one.