We have a bit of a problem here.....

[gift]

No one knows how good or bad this year's draft will be. Lots of people think they know, but no one knows. There are always good and bad surprises. I mean, Boston got Pierce at No. 10.

Most people that follow college basketball and the draft class know that this draft is not going to be very good.

Sure you got guys like Hield and Murray who could be solid players but they are bigger gambles than the picks chosen last year.

Last year it was obvious how good these guys were. This year you are hoping that a guy like Rab or Murray works out. Similar to how we felt about Rozier. The difference is these are middle lottery picks and not after the lottery. There just isn't much game changing talent after the top 5 picks.

The experts repeatedly talked about how weak the 2009 draft was, too. Until these guys are on an NBA floor, we just don't know.

I would add that it really takes several years of these players on an NBA floor before the strength of a draft can accurately be judged (though every draft can be inaccurately judged at any time). We still don't know how the 2014 draft will end up. Do Wiggins and Parker become stars or stay as inconsistent, limited talents? How good will Embiid and Saric be? Will guys like Gordon, Smart and Randle make the leap? If most of these guys stall out, it's a weaker draft. If they reach most of their potential it's much stronger. If all the guys max their potential it's one of the best drafts. All of these scenarios are still in play.

But yeah, we should probably act like we know at this moment how good the 2016 draft will be.

[Celtics18]

You know I'm happy the Celtics have a top 5 pick while being 3rd in the east. What rebuilding team can say the same thing?

This exactly.

Ok but this draft is not close to the last two drafts where you could get a great player with the 6th pick or after.

The 6th pick with this year's draft will be the equivalent of the 13th or so of last years.

It happens in more than 90% of drafts that there's at least one star available after the fifth pick.

The fact that you expect this coming draft to be one of the all-time worst in history as far as depth goes just seems like unfounded pessimism.

never said it was the worst. I said it was not very deep.

This is the same emotional and wrong answer I got last year when I repeatedly said we want a top 9-11 pick.  People kept saying oh you can't tell or that someone is bound to slip. BS.

I guess I misunderstood your comment.  I thought you were implying that you don't think it will be possible to get a "great player" with the sixth pick or later in this draft.

I wasn't getting emotional; I was just pointing out that, historically speaking, chances are high that there will be a good player left at sixth or later.

[Roy H.]

Devin Booker was considered a good prospect but not a future star and he is turning out ok. So if people want to hope that Murray or Hield can turn out like Booker then fine. There are potential solid players out there after 5. Just not stars.

Again I'd point to 2009. DeMarr DeRozan is a legit star who has surprised. Jrue Holiday was an all-star and is a very good player. Jeff Teague. Ty Lawson before the drinking.  Even that "weak" draft generated the MVP at #7 (along with Blake and Harden in the top-3).

I have no idea who will break out and exceed expectations. Perhaps nobody, but history tells us that several guys will defy their projections.

[KeepRondo]

No one knows how good or bad this year's draft will be. Lots of people think they know, but no one knows. There are always good and bad surprises. I mean, Boston got Pierce at No. 10.

Most people that follow college basketball and the draft class know that this draft is not going to be very good.

Sure you got guys like Hield and Murray who could be solid players but they are bigger gambles than the picks chosen last year.

Last year it was obvious how good these guys were. This year you are hoping that a guy like Rab or Murray works out. Similar to how we felt about Rozier. The difference is these are middle lottery picks and not after the lottery. There just isn't much game changing talent after the top 5 picks.

The experts repeatedly talked about how weak the 2009 draft was, too. Until these guys are on an NBA floor, we just don't know.

I would add that it really takes several years of these players on an NBA floor before the strength of a draft can accurately be judged (though every draft can be inaccurately judged at any time). We still don't know how the 2014 draft will end up. Do Wiggins and Parker become stars or stay as inconsistent, limited talents? How good will Embiid and Saric be? Will guys like Gordon, Smart and Randle make the leap? If most of these guys stall out, it's a weaker draft. If they reach most of their potential it's much stronger. If all the guys max their potential it's one of the best drafts. All of these scenarios are still in play.

But yeah, we should probably act like we know at this moment how good the 2016 draft will be.

You have to look at this very straight forward which seems hard for some people. The talent in this draft does not have the same potential as the last two. It's simple. Anything else is just hope.

Like people hoping Smart will shoot 40 percent this year before the season started. I said I doubt he gets over 37 percent. I was mocked.

Just hoping for unlikely outcomes because it helps the Cs does not make it any more correct than my straight forward evaluations of the draft.

[Smitty77]

The Nets lottery odds currently stands at a 12% shot for the Number One pick and a 38% shot for the  Top 3. And that's the optimistic viewpoint. Look at it from the other direction and its an 88% chance the Nets pick isn't Number One and an 62% chance it isn't in the Top 3.

The more wins the Nets accumulate, the more I feel we should've traded the picks at the Deadline. 

Is there any Silver Lining to all this? Who are we gonna target in the draft now?

You want a silver lining?...  The Nets have played .500 ball over the past 12 games.  If they keep up the .500 pace over the remaining 20 games, they'll only finish with 28 wins... which still projects that pick 6th.  Sure, it's not a top 5 pick and this draft might only be 2 players deep, but it's fair to acknowledge that had the Nets stayed healthy, there's a real chance they would have found a grove earlier, won a bit more games and maybe even positioned themselves to make the playoffs for the 4th year straight.    I've never counted on that pick amounting to anything substantial.  According to Bill Simmons, the 2016 Brooklyn pick was one of the 6 picks we offered the Nets when we tried to move up from #16 to #9.   The fact that we're now looking at a pick that is essentially a lock for the top 6 is pretty awesome regardless of how weak this draft may be.   It's free money as far as I'm concerned.   WE traded KG and PIerce about 2 seasons late... they were both completely fried by the time we landed all these assets for them.  The fact that we somehow got a young all-star named Isiah Thomas from that trade is impressive alone... The fact that we're looking at a likely top 6 pick in addition to Thomas?... Good god, that's incredible.  And the assets aren't even done coming in after that... we got a swap in 2017 and their 2018 pick as well.   Ainge is my hero. 

That's your silver lining.   Anyone who was counting on Ben Simmons will be disappointed, but it was foolish to ever expect that.   We still have a decent shot of landing him in the lotto.  And you never know with the draft... March Madness hasn't happened. Maybe there's a gem in there.  Regardless of who we draft, you can fully expect him to be the most untouchable player on the team according to many people on this forum.   This season has been nothing short of incredible.    Between having a shot at the top of the lotto, being a top 3 team in the East, and having max cap space for two potential free agents in an offseason in which Kevin Durant will be available and Boston has as reasonable a shot as any team at snagging him, this is one of the most exciting times to be a Celtic fan in years.   

Be thankful for what you have.  This is amazing.

Very well said LrdBrd!!!  I think you meant that we offered this pick to move up to the 9th pick to either Charlotte and/or Miami:-))

Smitty77

[KeepRondo]

Devin Booker was considered a good prospect but not a future star and he is turning out ok. So if people want to hope that Murray or Hield can turn out like Booker then fine. There are potential solid players out there after 5. Just not stars.

Again I'd point to 2009. DeMarr DeRozan is a legit star who has surprised. Jrue Holiday was an all-star and is a very good player. Jeff Teague. Ty Lawson before the drinking.  Even that "weak" draft generated the MVP at #7 (along with Blake and Harden in the top-3).

I have no idea who will break out and exceed expectations. Perhaps nobody, but history tells us that several guys will defy their projections.

I was pretty big on Lawson.

Also Steph Curry was not unknown. He was getting a lot of attention back then for a guy who played on Davidson. He was doing some crazy stuff with the ball back then also.

You also had dumb GMs like Kahn who let guys slip by making some odd picks.

[Smitty77]

You know I'm happy the Celtics have a top 5 pick while being 3rd in the east. What rebuilding team can say the same thing?

This exactly.

Ok but this draft is not close to the last two drafts where you could get a great player with the 6th pick or after.

The 6th pick with this year's draft will be the equivalent of the 13th or so of last years.

No one knew how deep last year's draft was until like 2 months ago.

Not even close. Guys like Johnson, Turner and Winslow were thought of as great potential picks last year.

There are no players with their talent after the top 5 in this year's draft. You could argue that all three of these guys would go top 5 in this year's draft. That is if they were college rookies all over again.

The only guy I see as a potential steal in this draft  is Davis from Mich St.

It's not really surprising to me that you feel that way. This is usually the time of year during which everyone gets down on the upcoming draft and glorifies past prospects thru revisionist history.

Turner had a seriously underwhelming freshman season.

Johnson never really quieted critics who said his shooting limited his potential until he actually got to the NBA level.

Winslow fell because Orlando, Sacramento, Charlotte and others are blatantly incompetent when it comes to their managerial duties. Last year's draft was deep, but it wasn't "Yeah, Winslow going at 10 seems about right" deep. How far he fell was always a joke from the moment we saw it happening.

I will just take it that you don't really know what you're talking about.

Johnson and Turner were both projected as great picks.

Also, search my posts if you need to. I said Turner had a soft touch and reminded me of Aldridge. Also said Johnson had poise like Dwayne Wade. Was always big on those two guys. But so were many others.

Hield will be 23 and undersized.

Murray lacks quickness

Poeltl could be a solid player but not a game changer.

Lab looks to have about as much game as Fab Melo did.

Valentine. Great talent but lacks quickness. Stuck inbetween positions. Does everything good but lack of athleticism will be tough to overcome.

Stone and Rab look to be gambles. Johnson and Turner were not.

Davis is very raw but could be a great pick.

One problem with your analysis is that you are not considering international players!!  What about these players??

   
Timothe Luwawu
   
Furkan Korkmaz

Zhou Qi

Isaia Cordinier

Juan Hernangomez

Petr Cornelie

Ivica Zubac

These foreigners are projected on draftexpress.com to to 11, 17, 24, 25, 26, 27 and 28.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that any of them could sky rocket into the top 10.

And I did NOT even mention Bender who is projected to be #4.  I didn't mention him because I am hopeful that we do NOT take him as he projects (to me) as a VERY LONG TERM PROJECT!!!

Smitty77

[Smitty77]

No one knows how good or bad this year's draft will be. Lots of people think they know, but no one knows. There are always good and bad surprises. I mean, Boston got Pierce at No. 10.

Most people that follow college basketball and the draft class know that this draft is not going to be very good.

Sure you got guys like Hield and Murray who could be solid players but they are bigger gambles than the picks chosen last year.

Last year it was obvious how good these guys were. This year you are hoping that a guy like Rab or Murray works out. Similar to how we felt about Rozier. The difference is these are middle lottery picks and not after the lottery. There just isn't much game changing talent after the top 5 picks.

The experts repeatedly talked about how weak the 2009 draft was, too. Until these guys are on an NBA floor, we just don't know.

Excellent point as always Roy!!!  Also, the international flavor of this draft could be the largest EVER in the first round!!!!  That is so very difficult to predict and rate, but I KNOW that Kevin is on it:-)))

Smitty77

[KeepRondo]

You know I'm happy the Celtics have a top 5 pick while being 3rd in the east. What rebuilding team can say the same thing?

This exactly.

Ok but this draft is not close to the last two drafts where you could get a great player with the 6th pick or after.

The 6th pick with this year's draft will be the equivalent of the 13th or so of last years.

No one knew how deep last year's draft was until like 2 months ago.

Not even close. Guys like Johnson, Turner and Winslow were thought of as great potential picks last year.

There are no players with their talent after the top 5 in this year's draft. You could argue that all three of these guys would go top 5 in this year's draft. That is if they were college rookies all over again.

The only guy I see as a potential steal in this draft  is Davis from Mich St.

It's not really surprising to me that you feel that way. This is usually the time of year during which everyone gets down on the upcoming draft and glorifies past prospects thru revisionist history.

Turner had a seriously underwhelming freshman season.

Johnson never really quieted critics who said his shooting limited his potential until he actually got to the NBA level.

Winslow fell because Orlando, Sacramento, Charlotte and others are blatantly incompetent when it comes to their managerial duties. Last year's draft was deep, but it wasn't "Yeah, Winslow going at 10 seems about right" deep. How far he fell was always a joke from the moment we saw it happening.

I will just take it that you don't really know what you're talking about.

Johnson and Turner were both projected as great picks.

Also, search my posts if you need to. I said Turner had a soft touch and reminded me of Aldridge. Also said Johnson had poise like Dwayne Wade. Was always big on those two guys. But so were many others.

Hield will be 23 and undersized.

Murray lacks quickness

Poeltl could be a solid player but not a game changer.

Lab looks to have about as much game as Fab Melo did.

Valentine. Great talent but lacks quickness. Stuck inbetween positions. Does everything good but lack of athleticism will be tough to overcome.

Stone and Rab look to be gambles. Johnson and Turner were not.

Davis is very raw but could be a great pick.

One problem with your analysis is that you are not considering international players!!  What about these players??

   
Timothe Luwawu
   
Furkan Korkmaz

Zhou Qi

Isaia Cordinier

Juan Hernangomez

Petr Cornelie

Ivica Zubac

These foreigners are projected on draftexpress.com to to 11, 17, 24, 25, 26, 27 and 28.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that any of them could sky rocket into the top 10.

And I did NOT even mention Bender who is projected to be #4.  I didn't mention him because I am hopeful that we do NOT take him as he projects (to me) as a VERY LONG TERM PROJECT!!!

Smitty77

Lets hope we get one with a late pick and that it works out.

I'm not against hoping. I just think people are being unrealistic.

[Smitty77]

The tiny, small, minuscule glimmer of hope regarding Minny passing the Nets for a higher lotto pick is that at least that would make our second rounder from Minny a 34 or perhaps a 33 pick vs. 35:-)))

Smitty77

[ThaPreacher]

No one knows how good or bad this year's draft will be. Lots of people think they know, but no one knows. There are always good and bad surprises. I mean, Boston got Pierce at No. 10.

Most people that follow college basketball and the draft class know that this draft is not going to be very good.

Sure you got guys like Hield and Murray who could be solid players but they are bigger gambles than the picks chosen last year.

Last year it was obvious how good these guys were. This year you are hoping that a guy like Rab or Murray works out. Similar to how we felt about Rozier. The difference is these are middle lottery picks and not after the lottery. There just isn't much game changing talent after the top 5 picks.

The experts repeatedly talked about how weak the 2009 draft was, too. Until these guys are on an NBA floor, we just don't know.

Well said!!

Next thing you know, you'll be telling us that Dewey will not beat Truman!!!
   Geesh! 
And Are you saying the weathermen are not always right? lol
I agree!   Wait and see! Trust in the process. This draft has gems waiting to be discovered.

[wiley]

This draft is full of big men who are still 19 years old.  That alone makes it likely
that this draft will be viewed in a lesser light now but with good potential to rise in esteem
down the road. 

Remember DeAndre Jordan?  Gortat?  Nurcic (struggling).  Jokic? etc..  All later picks and some much later.  If teams don't want to take the time to develop young centers, preferring to sign more experienced centers in free agency, that's one thing.  But that's not to say that time won't deem this draft a good one due to possible development of the following guys:

Ellenson
Rabb
Davis
Stone
Zimmerman
Damian Jones (can he be DeAndre Jordan on defense in 4-6 years (he'll be 24-26)
Poeltl
Diallo (too early to label a bust...he could be the next DeAndre Jordan if not in size in impact, albeit maybe not for 4 years, when he'll be 23)
Labissiere (too young to call a bust...give him 5 years)
Zhou Qi and the Euro bigs


Youth sucks especially in the case of big men.  Years later we can find out how this
list panned out...

Sometimes they develop faster...like Gortat and Nurcic (injury aside)

[Kane3387]

Devin Booker was considered a good prospect but not a future star and he is turning out ok. So if people want to hope that Murray or Hield can turn out like Booker then fine. There are potential solid players out there after 5. Just not stars.

Again I'd point to 2009. DeMarr DeRozan is a legit star who has surprised. Jrue Holiday was an all-star and is a very good player. Jeff Teague. Ty Lawson before the drinking.  Even that "weak" draft generated the MVP at #7 (along with Blake and Harden in the top-3).

I have no idea who will break out and exceed expectations. Perhaps nobody, but history tells us that several guys will defy their projections.

Very true. I hope that is the case with this draft. In fact very few drafts that I can think of were completely abysmal. The pau gasol draft recently. That draft was victim to it being filled with a bunch of dudes coming out of high school and teams just didn't have enough data on these guys to make informed decisions.

Inevitably when we look back on this draft the narrative will be different than what it is now. 2009 was a classic example when it was hailed the Blake Griffin and others draft. Blake might be at best the third best player in that draft and tyreke Evans was rookie of the year.


When Tim Duncan came out the narrative was the same and that draft had Billups and McGrady in it.


There will be great players in this draft and they won't all go top three.

[Emmette Bryant]

The Nets lottery odds currently stands at a 12% shot for the Number One pick and a 38% shot for the  Top 3. And that's the optimistic viewpoint. Look at it from the other direction and its an 88% chance the Nets pick isn't Number One and an 62% chance it isn't in the Top 3.

The more wins the Nets accumulate, the more I feel we should've traded the picks at the Deadline. 

Is there any Silver Lining to all this? Who are we gonna target in the draft now?

How are you going to feel when Danny trades the pick? 

[hwangjini_1]

The Nets lottery odds currently stands at a 12% shot for the Number One pick and a 38% shot for the  Top 3. And that's the optimistic viewpoint. Look at it from the other direction and its an 88% chance the Nets pick isn't Number One and an 62% chance it isn't in the Top 3.

The more wins the Nets accumulate, the more I feel we should've traded the picks at the Deadline. 

Is there any Silver Lining to all this? Who are we gonna target in the draft now?

yes, the obvious one. the celtics are going to perhaps finish as a top 3-4 team in the eastern division. at the same time they will probably have a bottom 5 draft pick. how many teams would call that "a bit of a problem?"

quite to contrary, i am delighted to have as substantial shot at a good player, or to have a valuable trade asset.

let the ping pong balls bounce their merry way. the celtics are in an enviable position, and may have another two years of such "lottery-problems" coming up.