ESPN geeks liking the Celtics upside

[TheFlex]

Toronto, Boston and Detroit are going to own the East for years to come.

The praise heaped on Boston and Detroit is quite obviously warranted, but I'm surprised no one took the time to talk about the Raptors. Lowry, DDR and Valanciunas are all under 30. DDR and Valanciunas are well under 30 while Lowry has one of the best value deals in the NBA. They've got some nice prospects (Delon Wright, Caboclo, Nogueira, Biyombo) and they should own a lottery pick, albeit in the back half of the lottery, thanks to the Andrea Bargnani trade (lol Knicks). This team could reach the Finals this year if they get D. Carroll healthy.

Surprisingly, despite the consistent foolishness of James Dolan throughout his entire tenure as owner, the Knicks could challenge this group. He isn't talked about as much anymore, but Phil Jackson has done a terrific job with these Knicks. He's added Porzingis, Galloway, Jerian Grant and Lance Thomas while balancing the ongoing process of appeasing Carmelo Anthony with the signings of Afflalo and Robin Lopez. While those signings could easily be characterized as overpays, they allowed the Knicks to sustain a level of competitive integrity that has prevented Melo from demanding a trade and thus crushing his trade value.

Finally, don't sleep on Philadelphia. As a fan, I don't condone the extremism with which they allow their strategy to be founded on, but they have the assets and franchise appeal to come out of nowhere. Once they lose their tanking stink (probably next year), they'll look a lot more formidable.

The reason that Toronto can't be talked about as a team of this future is that DeRozan is an unrestricted free agent.  If they are unable to retain him, that team takes a hit.  I think he's more likely than not to stay, but it makes their future a bit too uncertain to put them at the top of the list of teams with bright futures.

Also, Lowry is right around 30 and it's fair to wonder how many more seasons like this one he has left.  Once Lowry stops playing like a top 20 guy, that team isn't so impressive anymore, unless Derozan stays and actually improves, Valanciunas takes another step forward, or they get an unexpected contribution somewhere else.

It is fair to wonder, but reasonable to conclude otherwise.

There are many reasons why Lowry should be able to sustain his production for at least 3 more years. He is also on a great deal.

"Unless DDR stays..." You really think he's leaving? "...and actually improves." What is this supposed to mean? DeRozan has improved every year in the league and isn't even 28 years old yet.

Valanciunas is 23 years old and will likely finish the season averaging a double-double given recent trends. He has at least one more leap in him. I'd be shocked if he remains the player he is now over the next 10-12 years. And they have him locked up at great value.

It seems there are a lot of misconceptions about Toronto. They are far from being the next Joe Johnson/Josh Smith/Al Horford Atlanta Hawks. And there are as many questions about other teams' futures as there are about Toronto's.

[Moranis]

Even more so than the Cs, Toronto is a team you look at and wonder how they can possibly be as good as they are. At least with Atlanta last year, you had a full team of all-stars who all had a history of performing at a high level / name recognition.

I am not sure if it's the mere fact that they are in Toronto that they don't seem all that impressive from the outlook or if their coaching is really that good. Either way, they seem to have a lot to build on there.

Toronto has three starters with a PER above 20 (they are all under 30 years old as well).  The Cavs don't have 3 players above 20 (Love is very close to making it 3 though).  Neither do the Warriors (though Curry is at an incredible 32.6, which would be the highest single season in NBA history if he stays that way).  Neither do the Spurs (though they have 2 and a number of guys in the upper teens).  The Thunder and Clippers have three players above 20 PER.  Thomas is the only Celtic above 20 PER and no one else is even close (aside from Mickey who isn't even a rotation guy). 

It isn't hard to see why a team with 3 very good players (if you have a 20 PER you have to be very good, at least statistically) is having the kind of success they are having. 

[hwangjini_1]

So much depends on where that picks falls and what Danny Ainge can make happen this summer.

The Celts are in a very good position, but it is one with a great deal of variance.

#1 overall pick and a trip to the conference finals sounds amazing.  Losing in the first round and getting pick #6 or even #7, also conceivable, much less exciting.
...

good points. i would only add that the window for ainge to act may very well extend beyond this summer. the celtics do have the nets pick for two more years (one a switch). the nets may be bad for a while, in which case ainge's suitcase of assets would not be empty after this summer.

i am not in any way refuting your points, simply adding one more.

[ahonui06]

The addition of Sean Marks as GM for the Brooklyn franchise isn't going to help the Celtics. I have a feeling he might actually know what he is doing and make them marginally better over the next 2 seasons.

[saltlover]

Even more so than the Cs, Toronto is a team you look at and wonder how they can possibly be as good as they are. At least with Atlanta last year, you had a full team of all-stars who all had a history of performing at a high level / name recognition.

I am not sure if it's the mere fact that they are in Toronto that they don't seem all that impressive from the outlook or if their coaching is really that good. Either way, they seem to have a lot to build on there.

Not sure where you have been but Lowry and Derozan have been one of the best starting backcourts in the league for three years running now. Val was a pretty heralded draft pick back in 2012 and he is finally coming into his own on both sides of the court.

Atlanta was the team that surprised everyone, and it's clear it was an outlier seeing as they have crashed back to earth this season.

Outlier plus the fact that Toronto signed one of their best players.

[PhoSita]

So much depends on where that picks falls and what Danny Ainge can make happen this summer.

The Celts are in a very good position, but it is one with a great deal of variance.

#1 overall pick and a trip to the conference finals sounds amazing.  Losing in the first round and getting pick #6 or even #7, also conceivable, much less exciting.
...

good points. i would only add that the window for ainge to act may very well extend beyond this summer. the celtics do have the nets pick for two more years (one a switch). the nets may be bad for a while, in which case ainge's suitcase of assets would not be empty after this summer.

i am not in any way refuting your points, simply adding one more.

That's fair.  The book won't be written entirely this summer.

That said, I don't think the Celts can afford to walk into next season with a handful of rookies to add to 4-5 guys currently on the roster who have zero meaningful NBA experience, unless of course they're willing to take a significant step back next year.

Given that, it feels like Ainge will have to make some significant moves this summer unless he drafts a bunch of foreigners who won't come over here for a while.

[PhoSita]

It seems there are a lot of misconceptions about Toronto. They are far from being the next Joe Johnson/Josh Smith/Al Horford Atlanta Hawks. And there are as many questions about other teams' futures as there are about Toronto's.

I like the Raptors a lot.  I'm bullish about them.

Just pointing out, I think there are valid reasons to have some hesitancy about expecting them to not only stay at their currently level but continue improving beyond it.

Lowry should be a really good player for at least a few more years, but this is also probably going to be the best season of his career.  Derozan has been in the league long enough that it's reasonable to conclude he's mostly a finished product (not a bad thing since he's pretty darn good for a non-shooting wing).  I like Valanciunas, but from what I've read there are a lot of different opinions about his overall value and potential for improvement.

Worth noting, as well, that Scola and Biyombo have been really valuable bench pieces for them this year, and both are free agents this summer.  They also have to make a decision about whether to bring back Terrence Ross.


Again, though ... I like the Raptors.

[Ed Hollison]

the window for ainge to act may very well extend beyond this summer. the celtics do have the nets pick for two more years (one a switch). the nets may be bad for a while, in which case ainge's suitcase of assets would not be empty after this summer.

This is being enormously undervalued if you ask me. We all talk about Simmons and Ingram, but the reality is that we could be having this discussion about whom we might land in the lottery THREE YEARS IN A ROW, on top of being a competitive team. Even if the Nets resurrected Red Auerbach in his prime as GM, that team is so screwed I still like the odds.

[Lucky17]

Even more so than the Cs, Toronto is a team you look at and wonder how they can possibly be as good as they are. At least with Atlanta last year, you had a full team of all-stars who all had a history of performing at a high level / name recognition.

I am not sure if it's the mere fact that they are in Toronto that they don't seem all that impressive from the outlook or if their coaching is really that good. Either way, they seem to have a lot to build on there.

Toronto has three starters with a PER above 20 (they are all under 30 years old as well).  The Cavs don't have 3 players above 20 (Love is very close to making it 3 though).  Neither do the Warriors (though Curry is at an incredible 32.6, which would be the highest single season in NBA history if he stays that way).  Neither do the Spurs (though they have 2 and a number of guys in the upper teens).  The Thunder and Clippers have three players above 20 PER.  Thomas is the only Celtic above 20 PER and no one else is even close (aside from Mickey who isn't even a rotation guy). 

It isn't hard to see why a team with 3 very good players (if you have a 20 PER you have to be very good, at least statistically) is having the kind of success they are having.

I was curious, so I checked: with the recent addition of Tobias Harris, Detroit also has three players with PER above 20 (Jackson and Drummond). Jackson turns 26 in April, and is the old man of the three.

[cltc5]

I'd throw Orlando and maybe Milwaukee in the mix too

[AngryAndIrritable]

I'd throw Orlando and maybe Milwaukee in the mix too

Not while the Bucks have Carter-Williams at the point...

[jambr380]

Even more so than the Cs, Toronto is a team you look at and wonder how they can possibly be as good as they are. At least with Atlanta last year, you had a full team of all-stars who all had a history of performing at a high level / name recognition.

I am not sure if it's the mere fact that they are in Toronto that they don't seem all that impressive from the outlook or if their coaching is really that good. Either way, they seem to have a lot to build on there.

Not sure where you have been but Lowry and Derozan have been one of the best starting backcourts in the league for three years running now. Val was a pretty heralded draft pick back in 2012 and he is finally coming into his own on both sides of the court.

Atlanta was the team that surprised everyone, and it's clear it was an outlier seeing as they have crashed back to earth this season.

Outlier plus the fact that Toronto signed one of their best players.

I don't know, I guess it is just me, but the name recognition in ATL seemed clearly better than that of Toronto. Lowry wasn't anything all that special before he arrived and DeRozan has only recently received the respect he deserves. Jonas has been good, but nothing on the Horford/Milsap level in terms of national attention.

I am not saying the players there aren't good, I am just inferring that the city of Toronto has been a little forgotten since Carter left and they are just now finally coming back into the spotlight. Their emergence with their lack of [super]star power has made them a bit difficult to embrace as a real contender.