Author Topic: How many games does this team win  (Read 3275 times)

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How many games does this team win
« on: February 25, 2016, 05:48:43 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Okafor
 Horford
 Crowder
 Bradley
 Thomas

 Smart, Kelly, Sully and Turner (resigned), Jonas, Mickey

 In this scenario Rozier, Hunter, Young are gone plus Brooklyn's pick for Okafor.

 That's a fierce 9 man rotation. 55 wins easily for Boy Genius .

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2016, 05:54:47 AM »

Online Who

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A fair bit would depend on J.Okafor. On how he develops.

The rest of the team is quite strong and I agree mid 50s win potential. Okafor, though, hurts his team more than he helps them at this point. It could be a few years (say 3-4 seasons) before that changes.

I am gonna guess that Okafor holds them back a bit to a low 50s win total. So only a minor improvement over this year's team in the W-L column despite adding a top talent like Horford and very good young prospect like Okafor.

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2016, 06:40:24 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Are we going to have cap room for Horford if we resign Sully and Turner? I honestly haven't looked, but my guess is that we'd have to let at least one of them go.


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Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2016, 08:36:44 AM »

Offline Hemingway

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We would have more than enough room. The cap is going up and we have lees spot. We also could part ways with amir and jonas if we needed more space but we shouldn't

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2016, 09:02:32 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I'm gonna say high 40s low 50s.  Better team talentwise but figuring out how to use the big men would take time.
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Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2016, 09:14:58 AM »

Offline Al91

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50-55 barring injury.
Long-form is far from dead, but please refrain from paragraph-laden posts! Who wants to read that?!

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2016, 09:35:05 AM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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Idk, Okafor would really strongly change the dynamics of how this team operates. It's not like you could just plug him into Sully's current role, because while Okafor is a better low-post scorer than Sully by far, a big part of Sully's role is grabbing boards and making passes that create scoring chances for others. If Sully didn't have as high a BBIQ as he does, I think he would be playing a less significant role on this team, and Okafor is lacking that BBIQ at this stage.

My big quarrel with Okafor isn't just his really poor defense (He'll never even be able to switch onto 4's, a huge component of CBS' defensive schemes), but that his offensive contribution is so heavily based on isolation post-ups. He's not a runner, so he won't contribute much to scoring on the break (the way Zeller or KO does, for example). He's not a particularly great passer like Monroe is, so you can't really run offense through him in the high post, and you can't expect him to find the open shooter whenever he is double teamed. He lacks a consistent jump shot from 15-20 feet , so unless he's got the ball in the post 1 on 1, he's probably hurting your offense. He's not even an above-average rebounder so it's not like he can just feast on tip-ins/put backs either.

He's just the kind of guy you really need to center your offense around in order to get a positive contribution from, and considering the major strength of our current offense is passing/creating open shots (even if we don't always hit them) it's hard for me to see Okafor just being plugged into our current roster and it being some huge positive. I'm not sure that team wins 5 more games than this one.

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2016, 09:54:03 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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Idk, Okafor would really strongly change the dynamics of how this team operates. It's not like you could just plug him into Sully's current role, because while Okafor is a better low-post scorer than Sully by far, a big part of Sully's role is grabbing boards and making passes that create scoring chances for others. If Sully didn't have as high a BBIQ as he does, I think he would be playing a less significant role on this team, and Okafor is lacking that BBIQ at this stage.

My big quarrel with Okafor isn't just his really poor defense (He'll never even be able to switch onto 4's, a huge component of CBS' defensive schemes), but that his offensive contribution is so heavily based on isolation post-ups. He's not a runner, so he won't contribute much to scoring on the break (the way Zeller or KO does, for example). He's not a particularly great passer like Monroe is, so you can't really run offense through him in the high post, and you can't expect him to find the open shooter whenever he is double teamed. He lacks a consistent jump shot from 15-20 feet , so unless he's got the ball in the post 1 on 1, he's probably hurting your offense. He's not even an above-average rebounder so it's not like he can just feast on tip-ins/put backs either.

He's just the kind of guy you really need to center your offense around in order to get a positive contribution from, and considering the major strength of our current offense is passing/creating open shots (even if we don't always hit them) it's hard for me to see Okafor just being plugged into our current roster and it being some huge positive. I'm not sure that team wins 5 more games than this one.

Nice analysis.

TP
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PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
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PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2016, 04:17:07 PM »

Offline mgent

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Are we going to have cap room for Horford if we resign Sully and Turner? I honestly haven't looked, but my guess is that we'd have to let at least one of them go.

I'm not sure what happened to Amir in the OP's proposal, but if we kept him instead of trading his expiring contract for 2nd round picks, we'd have ~51 million (71 million, if you give Horford 20 million per year) committed to:

IT/Smart
Bradley
Crowder/Jerebko
Horford/Kelly/Mickey
Okafor/Amir

Plus our 1st round pick (~1.7mil) leaves us with 73 million committed.

If you believe the estimated salary cap of 90 million next year (cap was higher than estimated this year) that gives us 17 million in cap space, and already a lethal 9 man rotation, without Sully and Turner.  So if you remove Amir's contract, the OP's suggested roster is possible with room to spare.

With Horford, Okafor, Kelly, Amir, and Mickey do we really want Sully?  If you prefer him over Amir, you could easily move Amir's expiring like I said earlier.

Regardless, with one of Amir/Sully for 12 million, that still leaves 17 million for a max-level SG that could possibly push Bradley to the 2nd unit.  Or use it on Turner and/or a combination of other players.

I personally prefer the 2 max player scenario over keeping both Turner AND Sully AND all the projects (regardless of whether we get Okafor).
« Last Edit: February 25, 2016, 04:30:11 PM by mgent »
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2016, 01:26:54 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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Idk, Okafor would really strongly change the dynamics of how this team operates. It's not like you could just plug him into Sully's current role, because while Okafor is a better low-post scorer than Sully by far, a big part of Sully's role is grabbing boards and making passes that create scoring chances for others. If Sully didn't have as high a BBIQ as he does, I think he would be playing a less significant role on this team, and Okafor is lacking that BBIQ at this stage.

My big quarrel with Okafor isn't just his really poor defense (He'll never even be able to switch onto 4's, a huge component of CBS' defensive schemes), but that his offensive contribution is so heavily based on isolation post-ups. He's not a runner, so he won't contribute much to scoring on the break (the way Zeller or KO does, for example). He's not a particularly great passer like Monroe is, so you can't really run offense through him in the high post, and you can't expect him to find the open shooter whenever he is double teamed. He lacks a consistent jump shot from 15-20 feet , so unless he's got the ball in the post 1 on 1, he's probably hurting your offense. He's not even an above-average rebounder so it's not like he can just feast on tip-ins/put backs either.

He's just the kind of guy you really need to center your offense around in order to get a positive contribution from, and considering the major strength of our current offense is passing/creating open shots (even if we don't always hit them) it's hard for me to see Okafor just being plugged into our current roster and it being some huge positive. I'm not sure that team wins 5 more games than this one.





 Well your right about the Defensive switching ability, but wrong on his passing. He's q very good passer, his BBIQ is excellent in my eyes.
 I don't blame him for not passing, who us he going to pass it to? Stuaskas? Noel?

 The team is garbage and he's the best scorer they have by far, he's decided to get his numbers so he can get a boatload of money when it's time.

 He's very capable of playing whatever role Steven's gives to him.

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2016, 08:17:55 AM »

Offline loco_91

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Idk, Okafor would really strongly change the dynamics of how this team operates. It's not like you could just plug him into Sully's current role, because while Okafor is a better low-post scorer than Sully by far, a big part of Sully's role is grabbing boards and making passes that create scoring chances for others. If Sully didn't have as high a BBIQ as he does, I think he would be playing a less significant role on this team, and Okafor is lacking that BBIQ at this stage.

My big quarrel with Okafor isn't just his really poor defense (He'll never even be able to switch onto 4's, a huge component of CBS' defensive schemes), but that his offensive contribution is so heavily based on isolation post-ups. He's not a runner, so he won't contribute much to scoring on the break (the way Zeller or KO does, for example). He's not a particularly great passer like Monroe is, so you can't really run offense through him in the high post, and you can't expect him to find the open shooter whenever he is double teamed. He lacks a consistent jump shot from 15-20 feet , so unless he's got the ball in the post 1 on 1, he's probably hurting your offense. He's not even an above-average rebounder so it's not like he can just feast on tip-ins/put backs either.

He's just the kind of guy you really need to center your offense around in order to get a positive contribution from, and considering the major strength of our current offense is passing/creating open shots (even if we don't always hit them) it's hard for me to see Okafor just being plugged into our current roster and it being some huge positive. I'm not sure that team wins 5 more games than this one.

I think this is spot on, TP. If you're trading for Okafor, you're hoping that Stevens can just make it work with whatever talent he has. I'm sure Ainge talked to Stevens about it before making an offer, and if Stevns thinks he can make it work, that gives me hope that it's possible. If not for this rumor, I'd say that Okafor was just a terrible fit that we should never go for.

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2016, 09:13:04 AM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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Idk, Okafor would really strongly change the dynamics of how this team operates. It's not like you could just plug him into Sully's current role, because while Okafor is a better low-post scorer than Sully by far, a big part of Sully's role is grabbing boards and making passes that create scoring chances for others. If Sully didn't have as high a BBIQ as he does, I think he would be playing a less significant role on this team, and Okafor is lacking that BBIQ at this stage.

My big quarrel with Okafor isn't just his really poor defense (He'll never even be able to switch onto 4's, a huge component of CBS' defensive schemes), but that his offensive contribution is so heavily based on isolation post-ups. He's not a runner, so he won't contribute much to scoring on the break (the way Zeller or KO does, for example). He's not a particularly great passer like Monroe is, so you can't really run offense through him in the high post, and you can't expect him to find the open shooter whenever he is double teamed. He lacks a consistent jump shot from 15-20 feet , so unless he's got the ball in the post 1 on 1, he's probably hurting your offense. He's not even an above-average rebounder so it's not like he can just feast on tip-ins/put backs either.

He's just the kind of guy you really need to center your offense around in order to get a positive contribution from, and considering the major strength of our current offense is passing/creating open shots (even if we don't always hit them) it's hard for me to see Okafor just being plugged into our current roster and it being some huge positive. I'm not sure that team wins 5 more games than this one.


 Well your right about the Defensive switching ability, but wrong on his passing. He's q very good passer, his BBIQ is excellent in my eyes.
 I don't blame him for not passing, who us he going to pass it to? Stuaskas? Noel?

 The team is garbage and he's the best scorer they have by far, he's decided to get his numbers so he can get a boatload of money when it's time.

 He's very capable of playing whatever role Steven's gives to him.

Well, I wouldn't say he's a poor passer (like Whiteside), but he's not particularly great either. I mean, Philly sucks, but Covington, Smith, Canaan, etc. are all decent outside shooters and Okafor, who sees a lot of double-teams, often takes on two defenders trying to score instead of making the smart pass to the open man. You say it's cause he's on a crappy Philly team and he's just trying to pad stats, but I'm not so sure he can make that pass consistently yet. He's a good enough passer to develop that skill, for sure, and his overall BBIQ isn't dreadfully low, but for a guy who's the center of his offense when he's out there, I'd like to see him make better decisions, because even if he came here his skill set demands being a top option on O

Still, the point remains. He's not a Gasol/Monroe level passer, not even a Sully level passer, and even if he learns to make the simple pass when doubled I don't think he'll ever be the kind of guy you can run an offense through in the high post, so that means your offense is going to be very isolation heavy, lacking in ball movement, which really takes away from the skills of all the other guys we have on the roster. He's not a P&R monster like Drummond or Jordan either, so we'll be taking the ball out of IT/Smart's hands more than we should. I'm not against an old school post-up big man, but I don't want one that isn't a top-notch passer, can't shoot consistently from the mid-range, is slow getting down-court on the break (on a team that gets a TON of fast breaks), isn't at least an above average rebounder and can't do much of anything defensively.

To me, his poor defensive abilities is what makes me not want him. He'll never even be able to switch onto 4's for short periods without getting burned, and this very good Stevens defense does a whole lot of switching. On top of that he's a poor P&R defender, below average rim protector, is really lacking defensive instincts, and he lacks a good understanding of team defensive schemes. When you add that to his already limited offensive game, I just don't see the kind of future star other people see. I wouldn't trade the Brooklyn pick and Bradley for him, especially if I didn't know where that pick ends up. I mean, would you trade that package for a 21 year old Al Jefferson? I wouldn't.

I'm sure CBS could find a role for him and use him in a positive way because he's a fantastic coach,  but to do so would mean changing the whole dynamic of this team on both ends of the floor. Just wouldn't wanna do that for a guy like Okafor.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2016, 09:18:15 AM by BDeCosta26 »

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2016, 10:16:09 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Okafor
 Horford
 Crowder
 Bradley
 Thomas

 Smart, Kelly, Sully and Turner (resigned), Jonas, Mickey

 In this scenario Rozier, Hunter, Young are gone plus Brooklyn's pick for Okafor.

 That's a fierce 9 man rotation. 55 wins easily for Boy Genius .
I don't like the fit of Okafor and Horford. Neither is a great rebounder, which is a problem. Okafor would be fun though, because of our ball movement he would get a ton of quality looks.

If they trade for Okafor on draft night, I'm not sure it will help us convince Horford to stay here.

Regardless, this is probably a really good team. We would be better offensively than we currently are and probably slightly worse on defense (depending on what Brad can get out of Okafor).

I'd say that team wins 52 games because I think we win 48 this year and Horford/Okafor/Sully is at least a 4 game upgrade over Amir/Sully/Zeller. It could be better than that if everything meshes quickly.
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Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2016, 11:19:04 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Are we going to have cap room for Horford if we resign Sully and Turner? I honestly haven't looked, but my guess is that we'd have to let at least one of them go.

Yes, with plenty to spare.

Re: How many games does this team win
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2016, 12:04:29 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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Are we going to have cap room for Horford if we resign Sully and Turner? I honestly haven't looked, but my guess is that we'd have to let at least one of them go.

Yes, with plenty to spare.
Especially if they sign Horford first and wait to sign Turner/Sully since their cap hold will certainly be lower than what they get per year.
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