« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2016, 09:47:02 PM »
Abso-freaking-lutely!!! The whole point of accumulating all of these assets is to get a stud. The number 2 pick in this draft is very likely going to be a stud. Why would you want to wait and hope picks down the line pay off when you can get the stud you need right now?? I'd do if if they got the third pick.
As LarBrd pointed out though, why on Earth would the other team make the trade???
2005 #2 Pick: Marvin Williams
2005 #4 Pick: Chris Paul
2006 #2 Pick: LeMarcus Aldredge
2006 #6 Pick: Brandon Roy (think about this pre-injury...Roy was a superstar)
2007 #2 Pick: Kevin Durant
2007...skip this year 
2008 #2 Pick: Michael Beasley
2008 #4 Pick: Michael Westbrook (#5 was a guy named Kevin Love)
2009 #2 Pick: Hasheem Thabeet
2009 #3 Pick: James Harden (#7 was Steph Curry)
2010 #2 Pick: Evan Turner
2010 #5 Pick: DeMarcus Cousins
2011 #2 Pick: Derrick Williams
2011...the next 3 or 4 guys are about the same as Williams
2012 #2 Pick: MKG
2012 #3 Pick: Bradley Beal
The point being is that it's a crapshoot. Only with KD was the choice really clear and turned out to be right. In other years the choice for #2 seemed clear and yet guys selected right below that #2 spot turned out to be better pros. So why do they make the deal? Because scouts' opinions differ, every teams' needs are different and teams know there's no such thing as a sure thing. Quality is nice when it's proven. When there's a fairly high chance of variability, quantity is a pretty nice thing to have.
Now I wouldn't put it past Danny to make this deal. Why? Because he already has quantity. He can't put 3 1st rounders on this roster. So he *has* to gamble on putting his eggs in one basket. I don't think it will be with future picks though. Danny isn't that dumb. Any move up will be with 2016 picks and players.
That's some good information but if your strategy is to ignore the players actually in front of you and instead just play the odds, I don't think you're going to go very far. It matters who you are actually getting.
I would not have traded up to #2 in 2012 (when Davis was the only guy who seemed like a sure fire star) or in 2013 (when it was even more of a crapshoot than normal) but would definitely have when it seemed like a 2-man race (like 2007 with Durant/Oden). This season is looking like there are 2 stars. Of course, of the two, I'd prefer to trade up to get Simmons.


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