Another Draft Miss: Rodney Hood

[ssspence]

Ainge drafted pretty well until 2006. Here are his draft picks since 2007:

2007: Gabe Pruitt (32nd pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Marc Gasol, Josh McRoberts and Ramon Sessions
2007: Glen Davis (35th pick) -- bench contributor, now out of the league
2008: JR Giddens (30th pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Goran Dragic, Omer Asik, The Fresh Prince, Sonny Weems, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ante Tomic, and Sasha Kuan
2008: Bill Walker (47th pick) -- bust; out of the league
2008: Semih Erden (60th pick) -- bust, out of the league
2009: Lester Hudson (58th pick) -- bust, out of the league
2010: Avery Bradley (19th pick) -- NBA rotation player; pretty good value when looking at the whole of this draft. Arguably Ainge's best pick of this time period.
2010: Luke Harangody (52nd pick) -- bust, out of the league
2011: JaJuan Johnson (27th pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Norris Cole, Jimmy Butler, Cory Joseph, Shelvin Mack, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kyle Singler, Chandler Parsons, Jon Leuer, Lavoy Allen, and Isaiah Thomas
2011: E'Twaun Moore (55th pick) -- getting checks in the league for reasons that are unclear to me; Isaiah Thomas taken a few picks later.
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st pick) -- NBA rotation player; players selected after include Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton and Kyle O'Quinn
2012: Fab Melo (22nd pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton and Kyle O'Quinn
2012: Kris Joseph (52nd pick) -- bust, out of the league
2013: Kelly Olynyk (13th pick) -- NBA rotation player; players selected after include Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freak, Denis Schroder and Gorgui Dieng
2013: Colton Iverson (48th pick) -- bust, never going to play in the league. Selected two slots after: Joffrey Lauvergne
2014: Marcus Smart (6th pick) -- NBA rotation player. Jury still out.
2014: James Young (17th pick) -- Very shaky. Celtics went out of their way to hype his upside, but he's largely looked lost and unplayable. Players selected after include Gary Harris, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Mitch McGary, Nikola Jokic, Jordan Clarkson and Dwight Powell
2015: Terry Rozier (16th pick) -- Considering by virtually everyone outside the Cs to be a reach at this pick. Essentially has not played. Players selected after include Rashad Vaughn, Jerian Grant, Delon Wright, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Larry Nance, Jr.
2015: RJ Hunter (28th pick) -- Has shown flashes, but has barely played.
2015: Jordan Mickey (33rd pick) -- Hype train central, but has yet to see his first meaningful minute in the NBA. High hopes.
2015: Marcus Thornton (45th pick) -- Struggling in Australia; Players selected after include a variety of European players, 1 or 2 of which will materialize into NBA players, like every other year.

Takeaways:

• two starters on a .500 team
• two bench players on a .500 team
• zero all-star appearances
• zero players selected from outside North America
• outside of rookies currently on the Cs + James Young, only one other guy in the league (who rides pine)
• 12 out of 21 guys out of the league, but this doesn't account for 3 Cs rookies + Young, who may or may not make it
• Over a dozen European players taken after the Cs picks who would have been better selections
• A long list of meaningful NBA players missed, including a good number of All-Stars, high impact players, and rising stars

This is not an above average draft history. If there was even one Rondo or Jefferson in this list, it might make the sting of fairly consistent misses -- and the Cs complete lack of European scouting -- look a little better.

Is Turkey now part of North America?

Yes, I overlooked him, the latest of all Ainge's picks....

[KG Living Legend]

 The miss can be summed up in one word.

 Athleticism. Hood is a very good athlete. Young has been so disappointing in that regard. Add to that Hood is 6'8" tall. And it's a big miss by Danny. Can't sugar coat it any longer.

[PhoSita]

 The miss can be summed up in one word.

 Athleticism. Hood is a very good athlete. Young has been so disappointing in that regard. Add to that Hood is 6'8" tall. And it's a big miss by Danny. Can't sugar coat it any longer.

Actually, I think the difference is much simpler:

James Young spent a single season at Kentucky under John Calipari.


Rodney Hood spent a season at Mississippi State, and another season at Duke under Coach K.

Basically, Hood actually learned to play team basketball before getting to the NBA, and he was drafted by a team that prioritizes developing young players.

[oldtype]

At the end of the day Hood is just all right. He's definitely better than James Young, but swinging for the fences on a high-potential prospect is worth missing out on "just all right" players from time to time.

I'm much more angry about the Rozier pick than I ever will be about the Young pick.

[byennie]

Oh c'mon. Hood is 23 years old playing for a rebuilding team that was starting Exum last year... and he's performing at a lower level than Avery Bradley did at the same age. 13 and 3 having been handed the starting job isn't exactly setting the world on fire.

Young was 19 years old in his rookie year. He won't even turn 21 until next season, and he was drafted by a playoff team.

The jury is absolutely still out unless you enjoy jumping to negative conclusions. Young was supposed to be a couple years away. Hood was supposed to play right away.

[KG Living Legend]

 Pho, if Rodney Hood is a 8.5, Just as an athlete.

 Then James Young is a 6.0

 Young tested out ok at the combine, but the eye test. I'm so disappointed its not even funny.

 His dunk in the tournament is the most impressive thing he's ever done, he had hops on one play that's it.

[KG Living Legend]

 Hood can actually dribble and take it to the rim, stop for a floater, make difficult layups.

 When Young does drive all the way to the hoop, it looks like he's never been there before. It's comical.

[aingeforthree]

Would you play Hood over Crowder ?

[aingeforthree]

Ainge drafted pretty well until 2006. Here are his draft picks since 2007:

2007: Gabe Pruitt (32nd pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Marc Gasol, Josh McRoberts and Ramon Sessions
2007: Glen Davis (35th pick) -- bench contributor, now out of the league
2008: JR Giddens (30th pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Goran Dragic, Omer Asik, The Fresh Prince, Sonny Weems, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ante Tomic, and Sasha Kuan
2008: Bill Walker (47th pick) -- bust; out of the league
2008: Semih Erden (60th pick) -- bust, out of the league
2009: Lester Hudson (58th pick) -- bust, out of the league
2010: Avery Bradley (19th pick) -- NBA rotation player; pretty good value when looking at the whole of this draft. Arguably Ainge's best pick of this time period.
2010: Luke Harangody (52nd pick) -- bust, out of the league
2011: JaJuan Johnson (27th pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Norris Cole, Jimmy Butler, Cory Joseph, Shelvin Mack, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kyle Singler, Chandler Parsons, Jon Leuer, Lavoy Allen, and Isaiah Thomas
2011: E'Twaun Moore (55th pick) -- getting checks in the league for reasons that are unclear to me; Isaiah Thomas taken a few picks later.
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st pick) -- NBA rotation player; players selected after include Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton and Kyle O'Quinn
2012: Fab Melo (22nd pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton and Kyle O'Quinn
2012: Kris Joseph (52nd pick) -- bust, out of the league
2013: Kelly Olynyk (13th pick) -- NBA rotation player; players selected after include Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freak, Denis Schroder and Gorgui Dieng
2013: Colton Iverson (48th pick) -- bust, never going to play in the league. Selected two slots after: Joffrey Lauvergne
2014: Marcus Smart (6th pick) -- NBA rotation player. Jury still out.
2014: James Young (17th pick) -- Very shaky. Celtics went out of their way to hype his upside, but he's largely looked lost and unplayable. Players selected after include Gary Harris, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Mitch McGary, Nikola Jokic, Jordan Clarkson and Dwight Powell
2015: Terry Rozier (16th pick) -- Considering by virtually everyone outside the Cs to be a reach at this pick. Essentially has not played. Players selected after include Rashad Vaughn, Jerian Grant, Delon Wright, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Larry Nance, Jr.
2015: RJ Hunter (28th pick) -- Has shown flashes, but has barely played.
2015: Jordan Mickey (33rd pick) -- Hype train central, but has yet to see his first meaningful minute in the NBA. High hopes.
2015: Marcus Thornton (45th pick) -- Struggling in Australia; Players selected after include a variety of European players, 1 or 2 of which will materialize into NBA players, like every other year.

Takeaways:

• two starters on a .500 team
• two bench players on a .500 team
• zero all-star appearances
• zero players selected from outside North America
• outside of rookies currently on the Cs + James Young, only one other guy in the league (who rides pine)
• 12 out of 21 guys out of the league, but this doesn't account for 3 Cs rookies + Young, who may or may not make it
• Over a dozen European players taken after the Cs picks who would have been better selections
• A long list of meaningful NBA players missed, including a good number of All-Stars, high impact players, and rising stars

This is not an above average draft history. If there was even one Rondo or Jefferson in this list, it might make the sting of fairly consistent misses -- and the Cs complete lack of European scouting -- look a little better.

Your biggest takeaway should be the fact that his best pick locations were 6th and 13th.....the rest of those locations are garbage.  Hot garbage.

BTW, at 6th he took Marcus Smart.  At #13 he took Kelly Olynyk.

[oldtype]

It's worth noting that Olynyk is looking like a fantastic pick at 13 now. He may even go 6 or 7th in a redraft.

I'm not sure he's even that much worse than Giannis at this point. (Giannis has higher upside, but right now they're about as useful as each other.)

[ssspence]

We need a thread specifically for people to complain about "missed draft picks". It's pretty frustrating to see these posts pop up once a week with Danny Missed Again: <insert player who just had a great game here> topic titles. It's the draft, it is hard to predict how these KIDS will develop, and if we are going to play this game we are going to go mad over every Butler, Thomas, Green, Ginobli etc. that we "miss".

Here's my tip: check who made the thread.  It's usually the same posters going on about the same players who aren't even anything special.

In fact, I virtually never post about the draft. This is my first thread started about a pick gone wrong. I'd say I've reached a bit of a breaking point on the topic, and feel it has a real effect on the Celtics rebuild. I tend to focus more on the cap and trades. And I'm arguably Ainge's biggest fan on this blog regarding those elements.

What's your thing? Pejorative non-analysis? Or are you saying it's unfair for me to expect the Boston Celtics front office to recognize the difference between Fab Melo and Draymond Green? Or JR Giddens and DeAndre Jordan? Or JaJuan Johnson and Jimmy Butler? And how many times does it need to happen before it's a topic worth your approval?

[Snakehead]

It's worth noting that Olynyk is looking like a fantastic pick at 13 now. He may even go 6 or 7th in a redraft.

I'm not sure he's even that much worse than Giannis at this point. (Giannis has higher upside, but right now they're about as useful as each other.)

Very agreed.  Giannis still has huge potential but he has not made the leap a lot of people acted like he was already making going into this year.

Olynyk's three point shooting right now is really special.  And Olynyk still has huge potential too, I think.  He changes the game that's for sure.  Only big in the top 10 in three point %.

And of course this could clearly lower over the course of the year, but he is shooting a better % right now than Dirk has ever shot from three in his career.  So he's clearly not there as a total player but his three point shooting accuracy wise could be really special.  He is different.  I think his defense this year is better than Dirk's has ever been so he has his own style.

[manl_lui]

Ainge drafted pretty well until 2006. Here are his draft picks since 2007:

2007: Gabe Pruitt (32nd pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Marc Gasol, Josh McRoberts and Ramon Sessions
2007: Glen Davis (35th pick) -- bench contributor, now out of the league
2008: JR Giddens (30th pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include DeAndre Jordan, Mario Chalmers, Goran Dragic, Omer Asik, The Fresh Prince, Sonny Weems, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ante Tomic, and Sasha Kuan
2008: Bill Walker (47th pick) -- bust; out of the league
2008: Semih Erden (60th pick) -- bust, out of the league
2009: Lester Hudson (58th pick) -- bust, out of the league
2010: Avery Bradley (19th pick) -- NBA rotation player; pretty good value when looking at the whole of this draft. Arguably Ainge's best pick of this time period.
2010: Luke Harangody (52nd pick) -- bust, out of the league
2011: JaJuan Johnson (27th pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Norris Cole, Jimmy Butler, Cory Joseph, Shelvin Mack, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kyle Singler, Chandler Parsons, Jon Leuer, Lavoy Allen, and Isaiah Thomas
2011: E'Twaun Moore (55th pick) -- getting checks in the league for reasons that are unclear to me; Isaiah Thomas taken a few picks later.
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st pick) -- NBA rotation player; players selected after include Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton and Kyle O'Quinn
2012: Fab Melo (22nd pick) -- bust, out of the league; players selected after include Draymond Green, Miles Plumlee, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton and Kyle O'Quinn
2012: Kris Joseph (52nd pick) -- bust, out of the league
2013: Kelly Olynyk (13th pick) -- NBA rotation player; players selected after include Rudy Gobert, The Greek Freak, Denis Schroder and Gorgui Dieng
2013: Colton Iverson (48th pick) -- bust, never going to play in the league. Selected two slots after: Joffrey Lauvergne
2014: Marcus Smart (6th pick) -- NBA rotation player. Jury still out.
2014: James Young (17th pick) -- Very shaky. Celtics went out of their way to hype his upside, but he's largely looked lost and unplayable. Players selected after include Gary Harris, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Mitch McGary, Nikola Jokic, Jordan Clarkson and Dwight Powell
2015: Terry Rozier (16th pick) -- Considering by virtually everyone outside the Cs to be a reach at this pick. Essentially has not played. Players selected after include Rashad Vaughn, Jerian Grant, Delon Wright, Bobby Portis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Larry Nance, Jr.
2015: RJ Hunter (28th pick) -- Has shown flashes, but has barely played.
2015: Jordan Mickey (33rd pick) -- Hype train central, but has yet to see his first meaningful minute in the NBA. High hopes.
2015: Marcus Thornton (45th pick) -- Struggling in Australia; Players selected after include a variety of European players, 1 or 2 of which will materialize into NBA players, like every other year.

Takeaways:

• two starters on a .500 team
• two bench players on a .500 team
• zero all-star appearances
• zero players selected from outside North America
• outside of rookies currently on the Cs + James Young, only one other guy in the league (who rides pine)
• 12 out of 21 guys out of the league, but this doesn't account for 3 Cs rookies + Young, who may or may not make it
• Over a dozen European players taken after the Cs picks who would have been better selections
• A long list of meaningful NBA players missed, including a good number of All-Stars, high impact players, and rising stars

This is not an above average draft history. If there was even one Rondo or Jefferson in this list, it might make the sting of fairly consistent misses -- and the Cs complete lack of European scouting -- look a little better.

Your biggest takeaway should be the fact that his best pick locations were 6th and 13th.....the rest of those locations are garbage.  Hot garbage.

BTW, at 6th he took Marcus Smart.  At #13 he took Kelly Olynyk.

to be COMPLETELY honest, the list doesn't really make Ainge a bad drafter. Bill Walker, Lester, Semih, Moore, Joseph, Iverson, and Thorton are mostly players towards the end of the draft...like at pick 40 and after, what are you really looking for in a draft? a superstar? an all-star? a rotational player? Sadly the NBA isn't the same as the NFL where there is a pool of talented player from round 1 to round 4...

Anything outside of top 10, how many people REALLY end up being stars? I think, and that is my opinion, we can really judge Ainge based on what he drafted in the top 20. at 6, Smart is a solid pick, and Kelly is also a solid pick in my honest opinion. I mean yea he probably didn't draft us a superstar, but let's look at all those drafts and our position during those drafts and if it was actually POSSIBLE for us to draft one.

I think Danny's real value is in the trading business. I do think however, his drafting abilities could be improved but I won't say he is completely terrible at it. In a way I wish we have the Spurs' scouting team and pick very good players and starters late in the draft

[ssspence]

Your biggest takeaway should be the fact that his best pick locations were 6th and 13th.....the rest of those locations are garbage.  Hot garbage.

BTW, at 6th he took Marcus Smart.  At #13 he took Kelly Olynyk.

Smugness aside, one of those Hot Garbage picks could have produced a player that's currently putting up much better numbers than either Smart or Olynyk: Rodney Hood.

I won't get hyperbolic about this. I'm not eager to have Hood over Smart or KO. But the point is simple: this head-in-the sand stuff about comparables on rookie deals is just nonsense.

Rodney Hood is a better player than James Young at this point. And this is nothing new as it pertains to Cs drafts.

[oldtype]

Looking at that list makes me think that Ainge is an average to slightly above average drafter. He seems really good at finding rotation players with middling picks, which is a useful skill.

I think what makes us underrate his drafting is that he's never really hit a total home run (I guess you could argue that Rondo was one.) But it's not easy to hit a home run with the picks we've had. The Draymond Green/Deandre Jordan/Jimmy Butlers of the world are extreme outliers.

What really makes a GM a bad drafter is messing up high picks, and Ainge hasn't had that opportunity yet. Marcus isn't exactly blowing the league away but the only other realistic option at that position was Randle and I'm pretty sure we made the right choice. If something goes seriously wrong with the Brooklyn pick this year, that's probably when the difficult questions start getting asked. I don't think that will happen though.