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Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« on: December 05, 2015, 06:40:15 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Do you realize how eerily similar their production is?

Per 40 minutes (because the Celtics are deeper than the Blazers and Thomas only plays 30 minutes a game compared to Lillard's 37)
Thomas - 27 points, 3 rebounds, 8 assists, 2.3 steals, 55 TS%, 23 assist%, 9 to%, 30 usage rate, 22 per, 4.5 ORPM, -3.1 DRPM, 1.7 WARP

Lilllard -  27 points, 5 rebounds, 8 assists, 1.2 steals, 54 TS%, 21 assist%, 11 to%, 31 usage rate, 22 per, 5.3 ORPM, -3.3 DRPM, 2.3 WARP

The only major differences are rebounds, steals, and to%. Lillard wins the rebounds (although the vast majority of his are uncontested rebounds and their adjusted rebound % is very similar). Thomas wins steals and TO%.

Lillard has upped his individual defense a bit this year, but compare Thomas' defense this year with Lillard's all-star season last year. These numbers mark the difference between a player's normal shooting percentage and their shooting percentage against Thomas and Lillard. Negative is good.

Thomas - Overall 4%, 3's 1%, 2's 6%, <6 ft 17%, <10 ft 16%, >15 ft 2%
Lillard - Overall 1 %, 3's -3%, 2's 2%, <6ft 16%, <10 ft 13%, >15 ft, -2%

I might mention also that Thomas' numbers were a bit better a few games ago and that players only shoot 7 times a game against Thomas, whereas they shot 11 times a game against Lillard, meaning players actually averaged more points against Lillard last year than Thomas. That was with Matthews and Batum as defenders to cover Lillard up.

Lillard was an All-star last year because he (combined with maybe the best PF in the NBA) led his team to the playoffs last year. And because his fan base was behind him.

If Thomas leads us to the playoffs this year, and if we end up being a 45-50 win team, then Thomas deserves to be an All-star, regardless of his deficiencies on defense. If they don't matter with Lillard, then they don't matter with Thomas.

Get behind Thomas. We do have a star on our team. He is a little star. He has a big heart. He is leading us to a really good record so far in his career as a Celtic.

Make Thomas an All-Star!!!!
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2015, 07:23:42 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Nice numbers.

I'm curious what the splits are in terms of production versus starters and production versus bench players.

I seem to recall reading something a week or two ago that suggested Thomas, and the Celts in general, score with much greater efficiency against opposing bench players.  That seems like something that would be true of every team.  But it also might make sense that the diminutive Thomas would get a lot of his points when the opponents bigger, better defenders aren't on the floor.

Looking at their shooting splits (distribution of shots and percentages), those are very similar, as well, except that Isaiah actually finishes much better inside (0-3 feet) and a much higher percentage of his field goals are assisted. 

Actually, 40% of Isaiah's 2 point field goals are assisted and 81% of his 3P field goals are assisted.  That's much higher than I would have expected. It's also much higher than any of his previous seasons, so maybe it's an aberration.

It speaks to how Isaiah has integrated himself into the Celts' offense, though it also speaks to how Lillard, by contrast, is having to do a lot more by himself for the scoring-thin Blazers.


I really enjoy watching IT.  It would be really cool if he made the All-Star team.  I think he can get there if the Celts have one of the better records in the conference.  He has a lot of competition, though.

What if Isaiah made it in over John Wall, who is struggling?  The best guard in the conference so far has probably been Lowry.  Wall might get voted in, however.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2015, 07:41:02 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Love the added number PhoSita. Where are the shooting ranges? And % of fgs assisted? Those are interesting.

Many comparison tools have Thomas' 2014-2015 season to be closest to Lillard's 2014-1015 season.

I'm going to continue to lobby for Thomas as long as he is playing this well. Like it or not, Wade, and Lowry are both in the All-Star game. Jackson, Wall, and Walker are all the competition for Thomas. Depending on how they are classified, Butler and Batum could be competition too. If the Celtics have a better record and Thomas continues to have better numbers, I think he deserves it.

Our fan base needs to support our guy as an All-star, because the only way he gets in is through a grass roots movement.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2015, 08:15:09 PM »

Offline pearljammer10

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I hate per minute stats. It's a nice "what if" number but who knows if players can sustain that rate of play over the time that is given. There is a reason why a guy like Brandon wright plays 15 minutes as opposed to 32 and thats just one example.

Damian Lillard is a better talent than Thomas. Not to take away anything from Thomas, he is playing great ball for us and I like his fit in our system. My only criticism being his shot selection. However, I choose Lillard over Thomas everyday.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2015, 08:23:37 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I choose Thomas for 7 million a year over Lillard for 15 million a year any day, especially when their production is identical.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2015, 08:38:38 PM »

Offline dreamgreen

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Good stuff. I always root for our players and IT4 is an amazing player to do what he does in the NBA with his size. I don't get a chance to watch Lillard much so I'm not sure about his defense and more importantly I can't give him the eye test. Also my big question is how does he do in the playoffs? To me it always comes down to how well a player does against the best competition and good coaching. IMO this is where you pay a price for having IT4 and he got and will get neutralized and sometimes just flat out abused.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2015, 09:20:48 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps on December 05, 2015, 07:41:02 PM
Love the added number PhoSita. Where are the shooting ranges? And % of fgs assisted? Those are interesting.

'

Basketball-reference, player page, Shooting section
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2015, 10:34:51 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps on December 05, 2015, 08:23:37 PM
I choose Thomas for 7 million a year over Lillard for 15 million a year any day, especially when their production is identical.

Whoa.

Take Lillard over Thomas 10 times out of 10. Lillard is taller, better shooter, and overall a far better offensive scorer.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2015, 11:25:02 PM »

Offline pearljammer10

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Quote from: Monkhouse on December 05, 2015, 10:34:51 PM
Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps on December 05, 2015, 08:23:37 PM
I choose Thomas for 7 million a year over Lillard for 15 million a year any day, especially when their production is identical.

Whoa.

Take Lillard over Thomas 10 times out of 10. Lillard is taller, better shooter, and overall a far better offensive scorer.

11 times out of 10.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2015, 11:49:25 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Quote from: Monkhouse on December 05, 2015, 10:34:51 PM
Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps on December 05, 2015, 08:23:37 PM
I choose Thomas for 7 million a year over Lillard for 15 million a year any day, especially when their production is identical.

Whoa.

Take Lillard over Thomas 10 times out of 10. Lillard is taller, better shooter, and overall a far better offensive scorer.

1. As if taller means he is a better basketball player. Curry should be teaching everyone that. I just gave you tons of stats that indicate that Thomas is the same level of basketball player that Lillard is, and you give me 5'9'' and 6'2''.

2. He is not a better shooter. Don't equate highlight plays with shooting ability. Career shooting percentages are almost identical. Thomas is 44%, 36%, 86%. Lillard is 43%, 37%, 87%. I would also argue that Lillard has consistently had better teammates than Thomas, which means his efficiency should have been higher because the attention was more on Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum.

3. Lillard is a more versatile scorer, but I would not say he is a far better scorer. Versatility can make a scorer more effective, but Thomas does several things really well. It's not about how many ways you can put the ball in the hoop, it's about whether or not you do. In comparable usage rates, they average the same points per 40 minutes.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2015, 12:02:29 AM by DefenseWinsChamps »
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2015, 07:36:33 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I fully believe that as our young players continue to develop and become more settled in their strengths and/or when we get a star, less focus will be on Thomas and his shooting percentages will rise.

He is shooting the worst three point percentage of his career this year, which will eventually regress to the mean.

But as he gets more settled in his role and other players continue to take the pressure off of him, Thomas will get more efficient.
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2015, 08:30:31 AM »

Offline dreamgreen

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Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps on December 05, 2015, 11:49:25 PM
Quote from: Monkhouse on December 05, 2015, 10:34:51 PM
Quote from: DefenseWinsChamps on December 05, 2015, 08:23:37 PM
I choose Thomas for 7 million a year over Lillard for 15 million a year any day, especially when their production is identical.

Whoa.

Take Lillard over Thomas 10 times out of 10. Lillard is taller, better shooter, and overall a far better offensive scorer.

1. As if taller means he is a better basketball player. Curry should be teaching everyone that. I just gave you tons of stats that indicate that Thomas is the same level of basketball player that Lillard is, and you give me 5'9'' and 6'2''.

2. He is not a better shooter. Don't equate highlight plays with shooting ability. Career shooting percentages are almost identical. Thomas is 44%, 36%, 86%. Lillard is 43%, 37%, 87%. I would also argue that Lillard has consistently had better teammates than Thomas, which means his efficiency should have been higher because the attention was more on Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum.

3. Lillard is a more versatile scorer, but I would not say he is a far better scorer. Versatility can make a scorer more effective, but Thomas does several things really well. It's not about how many ways you can put the ball in the hoop, it's about whether or not you do. In comparable usage rates, they average the same points per 40 minutes.

5 inches in the NBA is HUGE!
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2015, 09:16:45 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I don't disagree. If Thomas is as effective of a player as Lillard at 5'9'', just imagine if he was 6'2''. He might average 30 and 8 a game.

My point is that you cannot say he is a lesser basketball player because of height, especially when I gave you tons of stats that indicate he is just as effective as Lillard and worthy of being an All-Star.
« Last Edit: December 06, 2015, 09:26:08 AM by DefenseWinsChamps »
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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2015, 09:12:16 AM »

Offline LilRip

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wow, IT4 over Dame?? The green goggles are strong in this thread. I'm not saying IT4 isn't playing well, but if I were starting a franchise? I'd take Lillard over Thomas.


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Re: Comparing Lillard to Thomas
« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2015, 09:18:44 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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I suspect that there are numbers somewhere out there in the ether that demonstrate it's easier for opponents to stop Thomas from scoring if they really try, whereas Lillard is tougher.  Also, subjectively, it seems to me that Lillard has more frequent 30+ point performances.

Those are just hunches, though.  I'm open to the possibility that's my bias in favor of a player who's taller and more widely recognized as a star.
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