isaiah thomas-how to make him even better

[Cman]

This is the Manhattanite in me, but you got "$15" and "draft" in the same line and I'm thinking -- what cool beer did you get at Gingerman?

[hwangjini_1]

He spells his name Isaiah.

wow. so he has been misspelling his name all his life?

 

[hwangjini_1]

ha, ha...beat me to it. actually i was looking to post stilts. 

[Boris Badenov]

Get him to play some D.  Worst defensive player on the team last year.  If he was an average defender he'd be a great player.

I went to ESPN's real plus/minus to try and prove you wrong and I ended up proving you right:-))

IT is the 73rd worst defender out of 83 PG's.  OUCH!!!

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/1

I will support your argument now and shut up!!!

Smitty77

That same ranking has Rondo 19th, Tony Parker 82nd, Steph Curry 2nd, Mike Conley 24th and Patrick Beverley 26th.

[knuckleballer]

should only take a couple of months

[tarheelsxxiii]

should only take a couple of months

Hahaa. My brother had this procedure done for his adopted pit bull mix. It worked! Incredible stuff. TP for the reminder of little Sidney.

[Celtics18]

I think that becoming a better and more willing passer would improve Isiah's game immensely. 

There's not much he can do about his height. 

[mmmmm]

Get him to play some D.  Worst defensive player on the team last year.  If he was an average defender he'd be a great player.

I went to ESPN's real plus/minus to try and prove you wrong and I ended up proving you right:-))

IT is the 73rd worst defender out of 83 PG's.  OUCH!!!

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/1

I will support your argument now and shut up!!!

Smitty77

I've become _extremely_ skeptical of ESPN's version of adjusted-plus-minus ratings.  If you look up and down their rankings, some of them are pretty seriously begging questions.

If you look at the top by-minute (most used) 5-man lineups that Thomas played in last year (the five units that got at least 20 minutes of usage, there is a common, easily-spotted issue between the 3 with very good defensive ratings and the two with poor defensive ratings:



unit                                 minutes   ORtg   DRtg
Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Crowder-Zeller   41     1.02    1.02
Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Crowder-Bass     37     1.18    1.17
Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller      30     1.21    .96
Thomas-Smart-Crowder-Jerebko-Olynyk    26     1.33    .92
Thomas-Smart-Young-Crowder-Jerebko     21     1.21    1.12

In the units with a 7 footer at center, the defense was fine-to-great.  In the units with Bass or Jerebko as the 'center', the defense was awful.

This suggests strongly that a Thomas-Bradley or Thomas-Smart backcourt is not really a defensive problem at all.

This same pattern also persists with most of Thomas' other 5-man units, though the minute sample sizes are small.

[SHAQATTACK]

Growth hormones

[Vermont Green]

I don't look at it as how can we make him better but rather how can we best utilize his skills or how can we get the most out of his skills and efforts (which is pretty much the same thing I think).

I think the Celtics have already figured out now to best use Thomas.  He is a great guy to turn loose on the second team.  Any defensive issues are as big a problem because there is less overall talent on the court.  Plus, I think David Lee will pair well with him on the second unit.

[slamtheking]

I think that becoming a better and more willing passer would improve Isiah's game immensely. 

There's not much he can do about his height. 

yup and improve his ball handling skills too.  playoffs exposed that he has some serious difficulties playing against bigger, aggressive defenders and when teams ramp up their D, he has trouble making passes around the perimeter too.

was ok with acquiring him as a player when we traded for him but really became dissatisfied with him in the playoffs

[BDeCosta26]

I don't look at it as how can we make him better but rather how can we best utilize his skills or how can we get the most out of his skills and efforts (which is pretty much the same thing I think).

I think the Celtics have already figured out now to best use Thomas.  He is a great guy to turn loose on the second team.  Any defensive issues are as big a problem because there is less overall talent on the court.  Plus, I think David Lee will pair well with him on the second unit.

Eh, I think they'll be a great P&R tandem, but then again I thought him and Zeller were pretty good at that too. I think we might see a lot of Amir at the 5 with Lee, Sully or Olynyk so Zeller could get some time with Thomas while adding better D than Lee. Probably necessary if were playing KO and Sully off the bench too.

I'm hoping Marcus and Lee develop some great P&R chemistry to build his confidence and give a boost to the starting line up

[crimson_stallion]

Get him to play some D.  Worst defensive player on the team last year.  If he was an average defender he'd be a great player.

I went to ESPN's real plus/minus to try and prove you wrong and I ended up proving you right:-))

IT is the 73rd worst defender out of 83 PG's.  OUCH!!!

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/1

I will support your argument now and shut up!!!

Smitty77

I've become _extremely_ skeptical of ESPN's version of adjusted-plus-minus ratings.  If you look up and down their rankings, some of them are pretty seriously begging questions.

If you look at the top by-minute (most used) 5-man lineups that Thomas played in last year (the five units that got at least 20 minutes of usage, there is a common, easily-spotted issue between the 3 with very good defensive ratings and the two with poor defensive ratings:



unit                                 minutes   ORtg   DRtg
Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Crowder-Zeller   41     1.02    1.02
Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Crowder-Bass     37     1.18    1.17
Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller      30     1.21    .96
Thomas-Smart-Crowder-Jerebko-Olynyk    26     1.33    .92
Thomas-Smart-Young-Crowder-Jerebko     21     1.21    1.12

In the units with a 7 footer at center, the defense was fine-to-great.  In the units with Bass or Jerebko as the 'center', the defense was awful.

This suggests strongly that a Thomas-Bradley or Thomas-Smart backcourt is not really a defensive problem at all.

This same pattern also persists with most of Thomas' other 5-man units, though the minute sample sizes are small.

There is another pattern here also...

---

The best defensive rating was the 4th lineup, which featured:
* Thomas: -2.69 DRPM
* Smart: +1.05 DRPM
* Jerebko: +1.65 DRPM
* Olynyk: +1.71 DRPM
* Crowder: -1.07 DRPM

Total:
+0.65 DRPM

Conclusion
This lineup featured three of Boston's four top defensive players (according to DRPM) - Olynyk, Jerebko and Smart.  The positive impact of these guys was enough to offset the negative impact of Crowder and Thomas.

---

The second best defensive rating was the 3rd lineup, which featured:
* Thomas: -2.69 DRPM
* Bradley: +0.73 DRPM
* Turner:-0.28 DRPM
* Bass: -0.21 DRPM
* Zeller:  +1.36 DRPM

Total:
-1.09 DRPM

Conclusion
Despite dropping three of the team's top defensive players, this team was able to remain somewhat competitive defensively by replacing Crowder with Bass.  In the meantime Zeller, Bradley and Turner were solid enough to offset the loss of Smart, Jerebko and Olynyk.

---

The third best defensive rating was unit #1, which featured:
* Thomas: -2.69 DRPM
* Bradley: +0.73 DRPM
* Turner: -0.28 DRPM
* Crowder: -1.07 DRPM
* Zeller: +1.36 DRPM
Total: -1.95 DRPM

Conclusion:
This lineup is the same as the previous one, with the only change being that Bass is replaced by Crowder.  The team immediately gets worse defensively as a result, but Bradley and Zeller are able to hold things down well enough to give the team a fighting chance on 'D'.

---

The fourth best defensive rating was unit #5, which featured:
* Thomas: -2.69 DRPM
* Smart: +1.05 DRPM
* Young: -2.07 DRPM
* Crowder: -1.07 DRPM
* Jerebko: +1.65 DRPM
Total: -3.13 DRPM

Conclusion
Replacing Zeller and Smart for Jerebko and Bradley makes little difference, as both are strong defensive duo's.  The challenge comes with having Thomas, Young and Crowder (statstically, three of the team's worst defensive players) on the court at ones.  The resulting DRPM of -5.83 is so bad that you would have needed two Top 30 defensive players just to break even.

-

The fifth best (or worst) defensive lineup was unit #2, which featured:
* Thomas: -2.69 DRPM
* Bradley: +0.73 DRPM
* Turner: -0.28 DRPM
* Crowder: -1.07 DRPM
* Bass: -0.21 DRPM
Total: -3.52 DRPM

Conclusion
This lineup never had a hope.  The rotation of Thomas, Turner, Crowder and Bass leads to a total net DRPM of -4.25, and Bradley (as the only plus defender in this lineup) has no hope of making up for that.  In fact statistically there are only 6 guys in the NBA who could have, and they are Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan. Demarcus Cousins, Tony Allen, Andrwe Bogut and Draymond Green.  The fact that the Spurs and Warriors both have two guys from that list shows why both teams are so tough!

---

Looking at the above lineups, there are three things that I'm starting to see with consistency here:


Statistical relevance of Real Plus Minus
There seems to be a very strong correlation between DRPM and Defensive Rating - the ranks of the lineups are identical with both stats.  If you believe in Defensive Rating, then this indicates that it might be worth putting some trust in RPM too.


Impact of one bad defender
If you have a really bad defensive player on the court (e.g. Thomas: -2.69 DRPM) then it takes four 'Avery Bradley' caliber defenders (+0.73 DRPM) to compensate and break even as a team defensively.


Impact of multiple bad defenders
If you have two really bad defensive players (e.g. Thomas and Young) in an lineup, then to offset that liability you will need either:

* One Top 5 defensive player and two defenders who can hold their own
* Two Top 40 defensive player and one defender who can hold his own
* Three Top 60 Defensive players

That's won't even gain you an advantage, that's merely what you need to hold your own defensively while those two guys are on the court.


Defensive impact of 2015 roster changes
After the roster changes this season, we now have:

* 6 positive defensive players: Kelly Olynyk (+1.71), Jonas Jerebko (+1.65), Tyler Zeller (+1.36), Amir Johnson (+1.32), Marcus Smart (+1.05 DRPM), Avery Bradley (+0.73)
* 3 approximately neutral defensive players: Sullinger (+0.15), Turner (-0.28), Lee (-0.35)
* 4 negative defensive players: Thomas (-2.69), Young (-2.07), Perry Jones (-2.07), Crowder (-1.07)
* 3 Rookies who all have solid defensive potential: Rozier, Hunter and Mickey

Assuming that either Young or Jones is waived before the season starts, this would mean that - depending on how the rookies go - anywhere from 9/15 (60%) to 12/15 (80%) of all the guys on our roster are either positive defensive players, or at least capable of holding their own. I think we should have more than enough depth on the defensive end of the floor to ensure that we always have 3 plus-defenders on the court any time Thomas is out there, in order to help cover up for his limitations.

[mmmmm]

I think that becoming a better and more willing passer would improve Isiah's game immensely. 

There's not much he can do about his height.

He dished 7.5 assists/36 after joining the Celtics and assisted 35.2% of his team's shots on the floor -- those are pretty solid indications that his passing is pretty decent and willing.

[crimson_stallion]

I think that becoming a better and more willing passer would improve Isiah's game immensely. 

There's not much he can do about his height.

He dished 7.5 assists/36 after joining the Celtics and assisted 35.2% of his team's shots on the floor -- those are pretty solid indications that his passing is pretty decent and willing.

Agreed.

Thomas' solid assist numbers combined with his excellent scoring efficiency (PTS / FGA) indicate to me that he did a very good job of letting the offense come to him (rather than forcing it), and passing off to teammates when he didn't have a good look.

From the games I did watch, I felt he did a really top job at making that call.  While he may have taken the off contested shot here and there, most of the time he took shots he could make...and he seemed very willing to pass it if a teammate had a better shot.