Ranking All 2662 Summer-League Performances since 2008

[LarBrd33]

Gee willikers... People sure did rip into me for my "Undrafted Players who put up similar/better SL stats to RJ Hunter" thread.

Some folks made the suggestion that it would be more constructive to compare his performance vs other drafted shooting guards.    I took it a step further and sorted all 2662 SL performances since 2008:

HTML Version:  http://publish.smartsheet.com/f272f19cae1c43a9ae617c06be77e20e
Interactive Version:  https://app.smartsheet.com/b/publish?EQBCT=8a9b068134c6487cb8d970be0af95424

Important Notes: 
- I am sorting the players by their EFF rating in Summer-league (points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks ... subtract missed shots and turnovers)
- For comparison sake, I also included "NBA EFF" which shows their EFF rating in the 2014-15 NBA season (if the played)
-In the Interactive version you can right click on any column header to filter or sort

Feel free to filter and sort however you see fit.

Examples: 

- Try filtering the NBA EFF column to only show players who put up an EFF at higher than 14 last season in the NBA.   From that, you can come to the conclusion that DeMarr Carroll is the best-case scenario for a player who was disastrous in SL (in 2012 he put up dreadful stats over 3 games) and developed into an impactful player.  Here's hoping James Young (#1379) was just slumping. 

- Try filtering "Draft Data" so that it contains "blank"... You'll see the top undrafted summerleague performers of the past 8 years...   Looks like Malcolm Thomas is the King of undrafted Summerleague players:



... Let me know if have any other ideas based on this.  You guys can interpret this however you want.   SummerLeague is such a small sample size in general.  I'm not sure you can make any meaningful predictions based on a handful of games, but if there's some kind of equation based on this data that you think might help predict how a rookie's SL performance will translate into the real NBA, I'm open to hearing it.   Is there some way, for instance, that you can say "Well based on this data, power forwards taken in the top 15 who put up an EFF of at least 12 had an X% chance of averaging X in the NBA?   I doubt it.

Rapid-fire random observations:   Anthony Randolph was the greatest SL performer of the past 8 years and yet he isn't even in the NBA at this point.  Take that for what it's worth.   Kelly Olynyk was a SL beast (top 25).  MIght want to keep an eye on Myles Turner in your fantasy league this year...   Marcus Smart's big performance was 262nd on the list.   Not surprisingly, the guys taken in the 1st round tend to outperform the undrafted or 2nd round talent.  Go figure!

Also, for those curious, RJ Hunter's big 12 point 34% shooting performance can be found at #806 between Terrico White and Glen Robinson III (both taken in roughly the same draft range)... fwiw. 

[greece66]

I stopped reading the list after realizing Ryan Anderson had the same numbers as KD 

[LarBrd33]

I stopped reading the list after realizing Ryan Anderson had the same numbers as KD 

... and worse than Cole Aldrich and Anthony Randolph... who were both lotto picks.  So yeah... take it for what it's worth. 

[Celtics18]

TP for the effort.

[sofutomygaha]

this is funnnn thanks for the post. Harangody wasn't quite as good as I remember (but still pretty [dang] good)

Do you have a tool to make a quick SL vs NBA efficiency heat map?

[LarBrd33]

this is funnnn thanks for the post. Harangody wasn't quite as good as I remember (but still pretty [dang] good)

Do you have a tool to make a quick SL vs NBA efficiency heat map?

How would you envision that looking ?

[jdz101]

long offseason huh

[crimson_stallion]

Amusing as this is, I don't really see what it achieves as a 'predictive' tool.

From what I've seen, summer league performance seems to have had little bearing on real world talent. 

If there was a correlation there, then we should all jump for joy while we wait for Jordan Mickey to develop into an All-Star, since he was one of the best players in all of summer league this year.

Also while we wait for Dionte Christmas to finally reach his star talent level. 

It also doesn't bode well for Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell or Justise Winslow - all of whom had pretty mediocre Summer League stats this year.

[LarBrd33]

Amusing as this is, I don't really see what it achieves as a 'predictive' tool.

From what I've seen, summer league performance seems to have had little bearing on real world talent. 

If there was a correlation there, then we should all jump for joy while we wait for Jordan Mickey to develop into an All-Star, since he was one of the best players in all of summer league this year.

Also while we wait for Dionte Christmas to finally reach his star talent level. 

It also doesn't bode well for Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell or Justise Winslow - all of whom had pretty mediocre Summer League stats this year.

Kwhit10 summed it up pretty well when he told me, "SL only tells you who is bad.  Not who is good."

I agree.  If a drafted player struggles, it's cause for concern.  If a drafted player plays well, it's pretty meaningless since they were obviously good enough as amatuers to be drafted high in the first place...  it shouldn't surprise anyone that guys who were superior on the College level would be superior on the summerleague level.  That doesn't mean they can hang in with pros on the NBA level.

Some mildly interesting stuff here though.  Marcus Smart went from averaging 13.2EFF in 2014 to 14.2EFF in 2015.   Whoopy.  Roughly the same amount of progress Lorenzo Brown made between 2014 and 2015 (11.4 to 14.2).

[viulo]

Wait, so no advanced stats?
Anyone who just stands on defence doesn't lose points?
SL means nothing, but so does EFF.
That said, I'm having a lot of fun looking over the data.
TP

[Emmette Bryant]

Christ I can't wait until the preseason starts.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Good post. Always fun looking at data... don't need to derive beta weights from this in order to enjoy it, Lar

[hwangjini_1]

Amusing as this is, I don't really see what it achieves as a 'predictive' tool.

From what I've seen, summer league performance seems to have had little bearing on real world talent. 

If there was a correlation there, then we should all jump for joy while we wait for Jordan Mickey to develop into an All-Star, since he was one of the best players in all of summer league this year.

Also while we wait for Dionte Christmas to finally reach his star talent level. 

It also doesn't bode well for Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell or Justise Winslow - all of whom had pretty mediocre Summer League stats this year.

i guess this is why so many of us preach the "its only SL" gospel to the band of posters excited over SL performances.

nice job by lb to confirm this. tp for him.

[crimson_stallion]

Amusing as this is, I don't really see what it achieves as a 'predictive' tool.

From what I've seen, summer league performance seems to have had little bearing on real world talent. 

If there was a correlation there, then we should all jump for joy while we wait for Jordan Mickey to develop into an All-Star, since he was one of the best players in all of summer league this year.

Also while we wait for Dionte Christmas to finally reach his star talent level. 

It also doesn't bode well for Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell or Justise Winslow - all of whom had pretty mediocre Summer League stats this year.

Kwhit10 summed it up pretty well when he told me, "SL only tells you who is bad.  Not who is good."

I agree.  If a drafted player struggles, it's cause for concern.  If a drafted player plays well, it's pretty meaningless since they were obviously good enough as amatuers to be drafted high in the first place...  it shouldn't surprise anyone that guys who were superior on the College level would be superior on the summerleague level.  That doesn't mean they can hang in with pros on the NBA level.

Some mildly interesting stuff here though.  Marcus Smart went from averaging 13.2EFF in 2014 to 14.2EFF in 2015.   Whoopy.  Roughly the same amount of progress Lorenzo Brown made between 2014 and 2015 (11.4 to 14.2).

So according to what you're saying here, we should be VERY worried about the top 3 picks from this year - since you could make a legit argument that none of them performed convincingly better than Hunter this year in SL.

Likewise we should be glad Danny didn't trade our three picks for Winslow since Rozier, Hunter and Mickey combined produced a LOT more in SL than Winslow did.

That also indicates that any team who tanked for a top pick this year should very strongly question their approach, since everybody in the top 3 has mediocre written all over them.

Fair conclusion?

P.s.

There are examples of players who struggled in summer league, but went on to be pretty nice players.  DeAndre Jordan, Patrick Beverly, Marcin Gortat, Nicholas Batum and David West, Greivis Vasquez and Wesley Matthews are a few examples.  Tim Duncan (shock) was another. 

[crimson_stallion]

Amusing as this is, I don't really see what it achieves as a 'predictive' tool.

From what I've seen, summer league performance seems to have had little bearing on real world talent. 

If there was a correlation there, then we should all jump for joy while we wait for Jordan Mickey to develop into an All-Star, since he was one of the best players in all of summer league this year.

Also while we wait for Dionte Christmas to finally reach his star talent level. 

It also doesn't bode well for Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell or Justise Winslow - all of whom had pretty mediocre Summer League stats this year.

i guess this is why so many of us preach the "its only SL" gospel to the band of posters excited over SL performances.

nice job by lb to confirm this. tp for him.

The thing is, when I watch guys play in Summer League I don't get excited (or otherwise) based on their stats.  I don't just their SL based on their stats at all really.

I look at what they can do on the court - what skills, talents and abilities they present.  Things like explosive athleticism, shooting ability, rebounding fundamentals (boxing out, etc), post moves and footwork, ball handling skills, court vision, motor, etc.

For example I was dissapointed by James Young not because of terrible stats (he actually averaged close to double figures I think) but because of the way he played.  Lots of poor shot selection, no movement off the ball, no signs of effort on defense, little to no hustle, poor court vision and a general feeling that he just looked lost and lacking in confidence.

I was impressed with Rozier because even though his stats weren't that amazing, I saw flashes of fantastic ball handling ability, explosive quickness, constant effort on D (regardless of the end result), great motor, unselfishness, solid form on his jumper, no fear of taking clutch shots, etc.  I felt like he looked mature out there, but I thought he showed a ton of talent with a great deal of room to grow.

Kelly Olynyk was dominant in Summer League, but it was what he shows (showed basketball IQ, passing ability, jump shot, ball handling, willingness to run in transition, etc) that impressed me...not the outright stats.