An Optimistic Story for the Next Year of Celtics Basketball

[PhoSita]

I've spent a lot of time recently voicing my concerns and misgivings about how things are going for the Celtics.

So, I decided what the heck, why not chart out something resembling what I consider to be the best-case-scenario for the next year or so?

Note I said neither "realistic" nor "pipe dream."  I think this could happen, though by no means do I believe that it will.


1. Early in the season, with Toronto's struggles from last year carrying over to the new season despite the addition of Demarre Carroll, Toronto trades Demar Derozan, likely a free agent at year's end, for Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger, and the top 12 protected Minnesota 1st rounder.


2.  Jahlil Okafor leads all rookies in points, rebounds, and double doubles, and is firmly entrenched as the Sixers' starting center, making Nerlens Noel, an elite defender with no range, the odd man out. 

At the trade deadline the Sixers agree to trade Noel and Jason Thompson to Boston for Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko, James Young, the Celtics' 2016 1st round pick, and Brooklyn's 2018 1st round pick.


3.  By season's end, Marcus Smart is firmly entrenched as the Celtics' starting shooting guard, averaging 14 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals after the All-Star break, and garnering strong consideration for the NBA All-Defensive team.


4.  Terry Rozier has a strong rookie season, earning regular playing time in excess of 20 minutes per game by the second half of the season.  During a stretch of 12 games with Isaiah Thomas sitting due to injury, Rozier starts and averages 13 points, 5 assists, and 1 steal in almost 30 minutes a game, looking significantly more poised and polished -- especially on defense -- than fellow rookie point guards getting extended starting minutes such as Mudiay and Grant.

Both of the above prompt talk of "Rozier and Smart are the Celtics' backcourt of the future -- and we mean it this time!"


5. The Celtics finish the season as the 6th seed in the East.  They lose a hard-fought seven game first round series against the 3rd seeded Miami Heat.  Isaiah Thomas averages 25 points per game for the series, David Lee averages 18 and 10, and Marcus Smart hits a game winner in Game 6 to keep the Celts' season alive. 


6. Both the Mavericks and the Nets miss the playoffs, due to injuries to key veteran players and lack of depth.  The Mavericks' first round pick ends up at #12, while the Nets' pick ends up at #8.


7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.


8.  That summer, the Celtics re-sign Demar Derozan to a 5 year deal worth upwards of $100 million.  They also match a 4 year, $50 million contract for Tyler Zeller.  Somehow these seem like good deals compared to the crazy numbers getting thrown around in the new cap environment.  Case in point, David Lee signs with the Knicks for 4 years, $70 million after re-establishing his market value in his lone season as a starter for the Celtics.


9.  Result: the Celtics head into the 2016-2017 season with a starting lineup of Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Demar Derozan, Ben Simmons, and Nerlens Noel, featuring key backups RJ Hunter, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, and Tyler Zeller.


A young team with promise and upside and the ability to compete somewhat in the present, featuring a completely different core group than a couple years previous.  All of that with only one tanking season required to get there, and a couple of playoff appearances in between.


I'd be thrilled with that.

[max215]

TP, well thought out dream scenario. The part about the Lee contract with the Knicks was especially amusing.

[action781]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

[Robb]

Mine goes like this: The Cs go for it, trade for Gallo, win 50 games and a first round series, lose in 7 in the second. The Nets are terrible and get a top 5 pick that the Cs use on Dragan Bender or Ben Simmons, the Mavs miss the playoffs and get a top 10 pick and the Cs draft Jakob Poeltl, resign Gallo, let Lee walk, sign Kevin Durant.

Dream big.

[Celtics18]

I don't love all the parts of your story, but I give you a TP for giving optimism a try. 

[beantownboy171]

I think i'm probably more upbeat than you are with how the team is developing right now. But i think it's very possible that we win the Atlantic and have two picks in the lottery next year.

[Neurotic Guy]

Well done!   
I think the likelihood of everything playing out exactly as you predit is extremely low, however, the chance that good players become available due their team's circumstances is extemely high.  With all C's assets and with a 1/2-season of player development, the C's will be poised to pounce on good opportunities if/when they arise.

[PhoSita]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

Simmons looks great now,  but Mudiay was a consensus number 2 heading into last year and finished 7.  My thinking is that New York might hesitate to draft another combo forward,  and Simmons might slide down just far enough to make a trade up possible.

[MikeJelly]

I'm just trying to get Ben Simmons next year. Is it that much to ask 

[littleteapot]

Unless something crazy happens and we end up with a top 3 pick, I don't think we are going to get a sure bet prospect in the draft.

It would obviously be great if Simmons slid, but he would be sliding for a reason. Didn't one of the top rated recruits this year go undrafted?

We're in a somewhat tough spot because even though Danny doesn't seem in love with his mid-first draft picks, everyone else values them even lower. I think at some point we just have to take some bigger risks and in particular take a risk to get a big man in the draft.

I think it's still completely reasonable to think that we have enough assets to pounce if another Kevin Love situation happens (like your DeRozan example).

I think what we should basically be hoping for is to land someone like DeRozan and then draft the next Deandre Jordan or someone like that (and that 2 of the guys we have now stick around and become something between very good starters and all-stars).

[Evantime34]

I really appreciate you making an optimistic post. It's funny because I have envisioned optimistic scenarios for the upcoming season and the season after but they were very different from yours. Here are mine.
1. The Celtics become a top 5 defense. Smart improves on defense is a clear first team nba defender, his improved ball handling allows us to start Crowder and give him more time which further improves our defense. Amir Johnson is fully healthy and protects the rim as well as he did during the '13-14' season. Last year Bradley got called for fouls regularly when he tried to play aggressive defense, which leads me to believe it was a point of emphasis, this year it will no longer be a point of emphasis and he will be an elite defender again.

2. 3 point shooting improvements. Smart and Olynyk improve their 3 point shooting through repetitions in the off season. Thomas, Bradley and Crowder all shot below their career 3 point percentage I expect there to be some mean reversion there.

3. Thomas and Lee are unstoppable in the pick and roll against bench units.

4. The C's finish in the 5th seed, due to improved defense, better 3 point shooting and playing a high percentage of their games against the dreadful Atlantic competition. They win one round and then are knocked out by the Cavs except this time they take two games.

5. My draft scenario is similar to yours in that the C's use the Mavs and Nets pick to move up high enough to get one of Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram and Skal Labissiere.

[colincb]

OP's piling low probability assumptions upon low probability assumptions. I equate "optimistic" with best case realistic scenario. This is a pipedream scenario. Put down the pipe.

[Chris22]

Ainge and Stevens will get it done.
Mark my words.

[Evantime34]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

Simmons looks great now,  but Mudiay was a consensus number 2 heading into last year and finished 7.  My thinking is that New York might hesitate to draft another combo forward,  and Simmons might slide down just far enough to make a trade up possible.

I could be wrong but I think, New york doesn't have their first round pick in 2016

[PhoSita]

OP's piling low probability assumptions upon low probability assumptions. I equate "optimistic" with best case realistic scenario. This is a pipedream scenario. Put down the pipe.

In what way is "a series of improbable but plausible things all happen in sequence" not a best case scenario?

It doesn't even rely on  any especially unlikely events independently.