An Optimistic Story for the Next Year of Celtics Basketball

[PhoSita]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

Simmons looks great now,  but Mudiay was a consensus number 2 heading into last year and finished 7.  My thinking is that New York might hesitate to draft another combo forward,  and Simmons might slide down just far enough to make a trade up possible.

I could be wrong but I think, New york doesn't have their first round pick in 2016

Oh?   Change it to some other team likely to end up in the top 5.

[GC003332]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

Simmons looks great now,  but Mudiay was a consensus number 2 heading into last year and finished 7.  My thinking is that New York might hesitate to draft another combo forward,  and Simmons might slide down just far enough to make a trade up possible.

I could be wrong but I think, New york doesn't have their first round pick in 2016

You are correct, Denver has the right to swap it, if not Toronto gets it.

[Evantime34]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

Simmons looks great now,  but Mudiay was a consensus number 2 heading into last year and finished 7.  My thinking is that New York might hesitate to draft another combo forward,  and Simmons might slide down just far enough to make a trade up possible.

I could be wrong but I think, New york doesn't have their first round pick in 2016

Oh?   Change it to some other team likely to end up in the top 5.

Sorry didn't mean to be nit picky. I love that you are making an effort to be optimistic in order to play devil's advocate and increase discussion. TP.

[Fred Roberts]

Best case has zero to do with anyone over 26 years old.  Best case involves Hunter, Rozier, Smart, Mickey, PJIII, Young, KO and Bradley Sully types making a major jump and showing signs of being true keepers.

That's it. Hopefully Amir and Lee look good, but they are what they are. Seeing some of the younger guys come into their own is the best case imo.

[PhoSita]

7.  On draft night, the Celtics trade the #8 and #12 picks, along with Isaiah Thomas and the Grizzlies' 2018 1st round pick, to New York in order to move into the top 5 of the draft and select the one-and-done sensation from LSU, Ben Simmons.

I appreciate the thoughtfulness and optimism of this post!

My really only problem with it is that if Ben Simmons looks as promising on draft night as he does now, then no team is trading his drafting rights for a package of picks.  I think he's going to be special.  Even trading him for the #3 + #5 overall picks would be tough.  He looks like a special player -- moreso than anyone in the 2015 draft and I've thought that for a while now.

That said, I'm kind of hoping we miss the playoffs and get 2 shots at those ping pong balls!  I would give up any current prospect on our roster and take on any contract in the league for another unprotected 1st rounder from a potential lottery team right now.  I know it's unlikely, but Cleveland did it!  (Ty Lawson, anybody?)

Simmons looks great now,  but Mudiay was a consensus number 2 heading into last year and finished 7.  My thinking is that New York might hesitate to draft another combo forward,  and Simmons might slide down just far enough to make a trade up possible.

I could be wrong but I think, New york doesn't have their first round pick in 2016

Oh?   Change it to some other team likely to end up in the top 5.

Sorry didn't mean to be nit picky. I love that you are making an effort to be optimistic in order to play devil's advocate and increase discussion. TP.

Heh I didn't mean to sound peevish I appreciate you letting me know. 

[Monkhouse]

Best case is we trade for Cousins, and run with a team of

Smart/IT
Hunter/Young
Gallanari
Jerebko
Cousins

[colincb]

OP's piling low probability assumptions upon low probability assumptions. I equate "optimistic" with best case realistic scenario. This is a pipedream scenario. Put down the pipe.

In what way is "a series of improbable but plausible things all happen in sequence" not a best case scenario?

It doesn't even rely on  any especially unlikely events independently.

Actually it does. You have two teams in conference trading major assets in two different trades to us, both of which fix a major need. Because you developed our future backcourt in Smart and Rozier, we can acquire Derozan, move him to SF, and it all works brilliantly even if he's never played SF and is not big for the  position. Then we get two lottery picks and trade up for the guy listed 2nd in Draft Express's 2016 mock and keep the free agents we want.

That's a pipedream to me. Too many low probability events. If Danny's looking a for a best case scenario it's something along the lines of we get better (75%) + we get multiple lottery picks (75%) + we snag a good or great free agent looking at us as a team on the verge or we swing a major trade (25%), and as a result we're a pretender (or better) going into next season. 75%*75%*25%= 14% chance of that outcome. That's plausible, unlikely, and a best case scenario.

[BornReady]

1. Doubt it as they have clearly invested in demarre Carroll
more likely to trade Lowry first as derozan is less easy to be replaced. Also would ask for at least 1 guarantee 1st rounder to get derozan

2. I believe everything about okafor but probly keep Noel and try use him as a 4 as he has the speed and rim protecting ability so okafor and Noel can switch so Noel is guarding the tougher player. Most likely embiid may be traded for whatever Philly can salvage from his value after this season as he is leaning towards a bust with 2 seasons not played

3. I believe that but also that rozier may start a few games at PG with smart at SG as a Stevens experiment

4. No on this as rozier is more of a project right now and Stevens probly prefer starting smart or Thomas as they are right now better than rozier. Rozier needs to earn playing time and right now I don't seem him being better than either.

5. No on this as well. I think we make the 8th seed or barely miss the playoffs

6. I believe mavs and nets both miss the playoffs but mavs = 10-14, nets= 6-10

[The One]

I've spent a lot of time recently voicing my concerns and misgivings about how things are going for the Celtics.

So, I decided what the heck, why not chart out something resembling what I consider to be the best-case-scenario for the next year or so?

Note I said neither "realistic" nor "pipe dream."  I think this could happen, though by no means do I believe that it will

Thanks bro...I can now whistle while I work.

[PhoSita]

OP's piling low probability assumptions upon low probability assumptions. I equate "optimistic" with best case realistic scenario. This is a pipedream scenario. Put down the pipe.

In what way is "a series of improbable but plausible things all happen in sequence" not a best case scenario?

It doesn't even rely on  any especially unlikely events independently.

Actually it does. You have two teams in conference trading major assets in two different trades to us, both of which fix a major need. Because you developed our future backcourt in Smart and Rozier, we can acquire Derozan, move him to SF, and it all works brilliantly even if he's never played SF and is not big for the  position. Then we get two lottery picks and trade up for the guy listed 2nd in Draft Express's 2016 mock and keep the free agents we want.

That's a pipedream to me. Too many low probability events. If Danny's looking a for a best case scenario it's something along the lines of we get better (75%) + we get multiple lottery picks (75%) + we snag a good or great free agent looking at us as a team on the verge or we swing a major trade (25%), and as a result we're a pretender (or better) going into next season. 75%*75%*25%= 14% chance of that outcome. That's plausible, unlikely, and a best case scenario.

Well, I guess I just find my scenario more likely than the most common one thrown around here in which the Celts end up with Demarcus Cousins and multiple top 5 picks from the Nets while winning two rounds in the playoffs as soon as next summer.

That said, I think the probability for the scenario I outlined is probably a lot less than your 14%.  But hey, I did say I was inclined to be less than optimistic.  This thread is me trying to envision the pie in the sky without writing a fantasy novel.

[Celtics4ever]

I think we will make some progress this year in developing some of the kids, with the exception of one or two of them.   I think other teams in the EC have improved more than we did though and it will be a fight to get back to the playoffs. 

I am still hoping for another deal.

[slamtheking]

I think I have a different concept of 'optimism' for this team.

My take:
- Nets fail badly this year.  results in top 5 pick for C's
- Dallas fails this year as well.  result in a pick in the 8-11 range for the C's.
- Minny succeeds more than most expect.  youth movement takes a real leap.  Pick conveys to C's at #13
- Smart develops better handles and passing.  his shot becomes more consistent from outside but he drives much more than last year.  Starts looking like a really solid starter for us.
- Sully comes to camp in shape and looks really good -- like an 18/10 player if he was getting major minutes.  looks good enough that the C's think he's worth investing in for a reasonable contract resigning while letting Lee walk next year.  Improves his D to at least be respectable.
- KO develops aggressiveness on offense where he's consistently racking up double-digit scoring games.  improves his rebounding and his D as well.  Not what we'd hope for a seven footer but he's at least acceptable in those aspects now.
- Rozier and Hunter develop and show they'll be solid NBA players to build with.  They show enough promise that AB, Turner and IT are looking like expendable trade chips to land a good player.
- Young develops some consistency in his shot and effort.  less clueless when on the court including his defense.  at least gets to the point where people aren't dismissing him as a wasted pick.
- PJIII shows some ability that has him looking like the prospect we hoped to get with that wasted Fab pick. 
- Mickey develops enough to look like a decent big off the bench at some point. 
- Lee, Amir and Jonas show leadership for this team as it fights for a playoff spot but I suspect the team comes up just short due to the East's overall improvement over last season. 
- The rest of the players play well and don't diminish their trade value.
- C's are competitive for that last play off spot but cannot catch any of the teams that finished better than them last year and Miami and Indy pass them in the standings thanks to players returning from injury and their top draft picks really panning out this year.  What does the C's in is that lack of a top player that can carry them down the 4th quarter stretch when points are tough to come by.
- (pipedream part) C's finally catch their long-delayed break in the lottery and jump from the 13th spot to top 3 (pushing Minny from #12 up to #13 to convey that pick )

I think Danny pulls a midseason deal to move AB, Turner and one of Sully/KO/Lee/Johnson and pick (and/or IT) to land either a starting-quality SF or another center that's a bit better fundamentally than Zeller.  I think that type of package could fetch either Dieng or Pek from Minny. 

[PhoSita]

I think I have a different concept of 'optimism' for this team.

Interesting, because most of what you described ends up the same as what I described, though you take some different routes to get there.

I guess the main difference is that I don't have much investment or faith in Sully or Olynyk turning into starting caliber players.  I'd happily trade both to get some high quality pieces, along with Bradley, Turner, and Young.


Anyway, I think it's fascinating to see what people regard as their "optimistic but plausible" scenarios.  I think it reveals a lot about people's values or priorities for the team.

With me, I think you can see that I want the team to construct a core young group that is young, athletic, and has a high ceiling.  I'm ready and willing to watch a young, inexperienced team figure things out over time if they have talent I can believe in.

I'm not invested at all in many of the current key pieces, including IT and Lee.

[action781]

1.  Marcus Smart showed modest improvements in his all around game early in the season, but suffers a shoulder injury in mid-December and is out for the season (everything can't go smoothly!).  He should heal fine for the 2016-17 season.  But in his place, Terry Rozier shines and although he has some hiccups along the way, overall he looks like a very promising prospect averaging 28mpg, 14.4ppg, 5.5apg, 3rpg as he has earned the starting pg spot and a place on the all rookie first team.

2.  The celtics play well and wins 45 games to earn the 7 seed, where they meet the Atlanta Hawks and lose in a 7 game series.  Rozier had a couple awesome breakout games during the series.  David Lee had a good season (14 and 9) and the celts tried hard to trade him during at the trade deadline, but Danny didn't find the offers to be "good enough value" and didn't want to "trade him for the sake of trading him".

3.  The Cousins-Karl situation worsens as they fell to 8-11 early in the season.  A few of those losses have been close games and Cousins has shown a clear disapproval in late game play calls.  Rondo isn't making the situation any better.  The team continues to flounder in a difficult conference, while WCS looks like a promising young talent a little better than Nerlens Noel.  Lots of trade rumors involving Cousins at the trade deadline, but nothing happens.

4.  The Nets are bad.  They finish the season with the 6th worst record in the league and land the #3 spot in the lottery.

5.  Celtics and Kings agree to a trade on draft night -- Demarcus Cousins for Terry Rozier, Nets #3 pick, and Mavs #11 pick.  The Kings want to unload Rudy Gay on us too to go into a full rebuild, but Celtics aren't interested.  (But include him in your fantasy, if you want!)

6.  Next offseason is bananas as predicted.  Turns out to be a no-brainer to pick up option on Amir Johnson.  Jared Sullinger signs an offer sheet for 4 yr, $70 mil with Sacramento that the celtics choose to not match and let him walk (Kings were interested in him in a lot of trade deadline talks that fell through).  Celtics instead prudently resign David Lee to a 3 yr, $45 mil contract which looks like a bargain the way other contracts are being signed.  Celtics saw no improvement in James Young, so declined his team option, but did see a few flashes of promise in RJ Hunter.

Smart/IT2
Bradley/Hunter
Crowder
Lee/Olynyk
Cousins/Amir/Mickey

is what we're looking at as our roster two days into free agency next offseason (there is no more moratorium) with a nice looking cap sheet (somewhere between $17-27 mil in cap space) and still a good amount of future draft picks to work with including our own #16 pick and some second rounders in the 2016 draft.

[jade88]

1. Marcus Smart becomes a legitimate NBA starting point guard, averaging 14/5/6

2. IT4 is the 6th man of the year and makes plenty of clutch baskets

3. Celtics trade for Boogie Cousins at the deadline using  2 Nets picks,Sully, and Zeller as the bait.

4. Celtics trade the last Nets pick (right to swap in 17) and Rozier, Young, and Lee to NYK for Carmelo Anthony.