(Marcus Smart, #16, & 2016 Brooklyn 1st Rounder) for 2015's #1 or #2 pick?

[crimson_stallion]

In fairness, MCW and Olynyk were 22 year old rookies and Hardaway and Oladipo were 21 while Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, and Exum were all 19.  It's not really a fair comparison.

Why not?

Anthony Davis was 19 as a rookie and averaged 13 and 8.

Chris Paul was 20 as a rookie and averaged 16/8/5

Demarcus Cousins was 20 as a rookie and averaged 14/8/3

Greg Monroe was 20 as a rookie, averaged 10/8

Durant was 19 as a rookie, averaged 20/5

Lebron was 19 as a rookie, averaged 20/5/6

Bradley Beal was 19, averaraged 14/4

John Wall was 20, averaged 16/8/6

Kyrie Irving was 19, averaged 18/5/4

Tyreke Evans was 20, averaged 20/5/6

The list goes on and on. 

There are plenty of players who are superstars today, who put up good numbers at 19/20 years of age in their rookie years.  In the case of those who didn't (e.g. Harden) it's usually because they never got the playing time.  That may be a valid excuse for guys like Exum and Gordon, but it's no excuse for guys like Parker and Wiggins.

The only perimeter guys in the list above who put up scoring numbers like Wiggins their rookie year and became big stars are CP3 and Wall, but both of those guys also put up outstanding assist and rebound numbers (for their position) and the thing that has made those guys so good is their all round game - not just their outright scoring.

When you look at the elite scorers, most of the ones who got big minutes in their rookie years scored at a very high rate from the get go. 

I';m sure you can pull out exceptions, but in most cases that seems to be the case.

[max215]

IMO, Embiid and Wiggins both have the potential to be top 5 players in the NBA, while no one from 2013 does (for the record, Giannis is one of my favorite players in the league). Just a side note: Bennett probably makes 2013 look a lot worse than it was. I think it's more that the talent from 2013 was more evenly dispersed throughout (ie many early picks busted while players like Giannis and Gobert pick up the slack) than in 2014.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I look at Wiggins and I see a floor of Jeff Green and a Ceiling of Demar Derozan.  He's not a good enough passer, rebounder or defender to become an all-out superstar and he doesn't have offensive skill set or drive to become a lights out scorer.    If Wiggins ever becomes even a top 15 player, I'll be surprised.

Embiid is a bit harder to predict because we just haven't seen what he can do on an NBA level yet.  He's got great physical gifts for a center, and has a very versatile range of skills - but all of those skills are pretty raw and from what I've seen he needs a LOT of development.  I see question marks in his attitude - does he have the motor, the basketball IQ and the work ethic to reach his potential?  Will his body (which has seemingly given him trouble since high school) hold up long enough to allow him to reach that potential? 

Remember in 2003 everybody was so sure Darko Milicic would become a superstar.  He has similar physical attributes to Embiid, and was also seen as very versatile and skilled...but he struggled to adapt to the NBA, struggled to get his head in it, and we all know where he went from there.  Similar deal with Michael Olowokandi, who had amazing physical attributes (IIRC he was actually a sprinter, or something along those lines) but turned out to be a total bust.  Then there are guys like Vin Baker - similar levels of promise, and skill, but held back by attitude problems and a lack of motivation.

Embiid is high risk player, even before you factor in the injuries.  Throw medical history in there, and he's a higher risk than I'd be willing to take.  I wouldn't be shocked if he became a superstar, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he's out of the NBA by the age of 25 with zero all-star appearance.   

Parker - I don't think he's gonna be anything special.  Never did.  I don't think he has the skills to be the next Joe Johnson, nor the toughness to be the next Paul Pierce.  I think he'll be a 'nice' player - maybe a Nicholas Batum caliber player.  Doubt he'll become much more than that.  Maybe we'll get lucky and he'll become Steve Smith 2.0 - that's a possibility, but I don't think so.  Smith had more guard skills.  A poor man's Shareef Abdur Rahim maybe?   

Payton could easily become (ironically) the next Gary Payton.  Similar physical attributes,  great defender, pretty good passer, and Payton wasn't a great jump shooter at the start (or ever really). I think people are sleeping on him...I think he could become a better player than Wiggins one day.

Smart reminds me of a cross between Tim Hardaway and Andre Iguodala.  I think he'll be a very good player, I've never really seen a guard who's started on a playoff team as a rookie, and made the team better on both ends of the court...and then not become somebody.

Vonleh I think has huge upside, but like Embiid it depends on whether he has the IQ/Motor to reach it.  I think Vonleh has more upside than Embiid though because he's got the three point shot (which he shot very well in college), because he has a bigger length advantage (relative to his position), and because his medical history is far better.  I think he'll be a special kid one day, but we'll find out I guess.  Maybe another Antonio McDyess?

I don;t think Gordon will become anything honestly...same with McDermott, Randle and Stauskas.  I think those guys are all pure 100% busts who will be coming off the bench for somebody 3-4 years from now.

Exum makes me think Shaun Livingston.

Yep, I guess so. I do totally agree with you on Randle though. His style just won't translate to the NBA where everyone is either as big and strong as he is or bigger and stronger. Compound this with the fact that he will never come close to being a passable defender in the NBA and Randle has bust tattooed on his forehead.