(Marcus Smart, #16, & 2016 Brooklyn 1st Rounder) for 2015's #1 or #2 pick?

[GreenPride17]

No because after watching some Utah Andre Bogut Highlights he looks like Karl Towns and Okafor is a rich mans Al Jefferson We need a two way player if we're gonna use the 2016 Brooklyn pick

[PhoSita]

Of course I would.  None of the assets the Celts give up in the trade are likely to turn into franchise cornerstones.  Okafor and Towns could turn into franchise caliber big men.

No way would that package be enough for the Wolves or Lakers.  A package like that wasn't enough to get the Wolves to trade Kevin Love.

Of course it wasn't enough for the Wolves to trade Love - Love was a 25 year old coming of season in which he put up 25/13/3 - no team in it's right mind would trade a player that good for Marcus Smart and two draft picks.

But this thread isn't talking about trading for Kevin Love - it's talking about trading for a top 2 draft pick.

Are you seriously trying to argue that a #1/#2 pick in this year's draft is as valuable as Kevin Love on the open market, because (with all due respect) if you're trying to argue that then I think you're a bit delusional. 

I don't like Kevin Love at all, but he is a multi-time All Star, a superstar, and considered by many (not me) to be a franchise player.

To even try to argue he's worth the same on the trade market as a top 2 pic in ANY draft is just crazy. 

Hell even in 2003 if you offered Clevleand a player of Love's caliber in return for their #1 pick (then, Lebron James) I'm pretty sure Cleveland would have taken the deal and traded the rights to Lebron.

You just don't take the gamble of a prospect/draft pick over the certainty of a young NBA superstar, no matter how high that prospect's upside may seem to be.

The top pick isn't as much of a sure thing as an established player, but that's offset by the super low cost of the rookie deal.  Then you get them for their second contract which is a bargain if they are the real deal.

like it or not, top picks have tremendous value unless it's a really weak draft (e.g. 2013).

[Rondo9]

Of course I would.  None of the assets the Celts give up in the trade are likely to turn into franchise cornerstones.  Okafor and Towns could turn into franchise caliber big men.

No way would that package be enough for the Wolves or Lakers.  A package like that wasn't enough to get the Wolves to trade Kevin Love.

Of course it wasn't enough for the Wolves to trade Love - Love was a 25 year old coming of season in which he put up 25/13/3 - no team in it's right mind would trade a player that good for Marcus Smart and two draft picks.

But this thread isn't talking about trading for Kevin Love - it's talking about trading for a top 2 draft pick.

Are you seriously trying to argue that a #1/#2 pick in this year's draft is as valuable as Kevin Love on the open market, because (with all due respect) if you're trying to argue that then I think you're a bit delusional. 

I don't like Kevin Love at all, but he is a multi-time All Star, a superstar, and considered by many (not me) to be a franchise player.

To even try to argue he's worth the same on the trade market as a top 2 pic in ANY draft is just crazy. 

Hell even in 2003 if you offered Clevleand a player of Love's caliber in return for their #1 pick (then, Lebron James) I'm pretty sure Cleveland would have taken the deal and traded the rights to Lebron.

You just don't take the gamble of a prospect/draft pick over the certainty of a young NBA superstar, no matter how high that prospect's upside may seem to be.

The top pick isn't as much of a sure thing as an established player, but that's offset by the super low cost of the rookie deal.  Then you get them for their second contract which is a bargain if they are the real deal.

like it or not, top picks have tremendous value unless it's a really weak draft (e.g. 2013).

I'd much rather trade for the established star than the number 1 or 2 pick.

[GetLucky]

Of course I would.  None of the assets the Celts give up in the trade are likely to turn into franchise cornerstones.  Okafor and Towns could turn into franchise caliber big men.

No way would that package be enough for the Wolves or Lakers.  A package like that wasn't enough to get the Wolves to trade Kevin Love.

Of course it wasn't enough for the Wolves to trade Love - Love was a 25 year old coming of season in which he put up 25/13/3 - no team in it's right mind would trade a player that good for Marcus Smart and two draft picks.

But this thread isn't talking about trading for Kevin Love - it's talking about trading for a top 2 draft pick.

Are you seriously trying to argue that a #1/#2 pick in this year's draft is as valuable as Kevin Love on the open market, because (with all due respect) if you're trying to argue that then I think you're a bit delusional. 

I don't like Kevin Love at all, but he is a multi-time All Star, a superstar, and considered by many (not me) to be a franchise player.

To even try to argue he's worth the same on the trade market as a top 2 pic in ANY draft is just crazy. 

Hell even in 2003 if you offered Clevleand a player of Love's caliber in return for their #1 pick (then, Lebron James) I'm pretty sure Cleveland would have taken the deal and traded the rights to Lebron.

You just don't take the gamble of a prospect/draft pick over the certainty of a young NBA superstar, no matter how high that prospect's upside may seem to be.

Love actually did get traded for the #1 pick.

[PhoSita]

Of course I would.  None of the assets the Celts give up in the trade are likely to turn into franchise cornerstones.  Okafor and Towns could turn into franchise caliber big men.

No way would that package be enough for the Wolves or Lakers.  A package like that wasn't enough to get the Wolves to trade Kevin Love.

Of course it wasn't enough for the Wolves to trade Love - Love was a 25 year old coming of season in which he put up 25/13/3 - no team in it's right mind would trade a player that good for Marcus Smart and two draft picks.

But this thread isn't talking about trading for Kevin Love - it's talking about trading for a top 2 draft pick.

Are you seriously trying to argue that a #1/#2 pick in this year's draft is as valuable as Kevin Love on the open market, because (with all due respect) if you're trying to argue that then I think you're a bit delusional. 

I don't like Kevin Love at all, but he is a multi-time All Star, a superstar, and considered by many (not me) to be a franchise player.

To even try to argue he's worth the same on the trade market as a top 2 pic in ANY draft is just crazy. 

Hell even in 2003 if you offered Clevleand a player of Love's caliber in return for their #1 pick (then, Lebron James) I'm pretty sure Cleveland would have taken the deal and traded the rights to Lebron.

You just don't take the gamble of a prospect/draft pick over the certainty of a young NBA superstar, no matter how high that prospect's upside may seem to be.

The top pick isn't as much of a sure thing as an established player, but that's offset by the super low cost of the rookie deal.  Then you get them for their second contract which is a bargain if they are the real deal.

like it or not, top picks have tremendous value unless it's a really weak draft (e.g. 2013).

I'd much rather trade for the established star than the number 1 or 2 pick.

It would depend on the situation the rest of my team is in.

If the rest of the team is a disaster, I'd rather start with the top pick.  Unless the established player is a clear cut number one guy -- that's not Love.

[crimson_stallion]

Of course I would.  None of the assets the Celts give up in the trade are likely to turn into franchise cornerstones.  Okafor and Towns could turn into franchise caliber big men.

No way would that package be enough for the Wolves or Lakers.  A package like that wasn't enough to get the Wolves to trade Kevin Love.

Of course it wasn't enough for the Wolves to trade Love - Love was a 25 year old coming of season in which he put up 25/13/3 - no team in it's right mind would trade a player that good for Marcus Smart and two draft picks.

But this thread isn't talking about trading for Kevin Love - it's talking about trading for a top 2 draft pick.

Are you seriously trying to argue that a #1/#2 pick in this year's draft is as valuable as Kevin Love on the open market, because (with all due respect) if you're trying to argue that then I think you're a bit delusional. 

I don't like Kevin Love at all, but he is a multi-time All Star, a superstar, and considered by many (not me) to be a franchise player.

To even try to argue he's worth the same on the trade market as a top 2 pic in ANY draft is just crazy. 

Hell even in 2003 if you offered Clevleand a player of Love's caliber in return for their #1 pick (then, Lebron James) I'm pretty sure Cleveland would have taken the deal and traded the rights to Lebron.

You just don't take the gamble of a prospect/draft pick over the certainty of a young NBA superstar, no matter how high that prospect's upside may seem to be.

Love actually did get traded for the #1 pick.

Not exactly...

They got Kevin Love for the #1 pick, Anthony Bennett, Thaddeus Young and a $6.3M trade exception. 

Then they traded Thaddeus Young to the Nets for Kevin Garnett who is a $12M expiring contract.

So what they essentially did is traded Kevin Love for the 2014 #1 pick (Wiggins), the 2013 #1 pick (Bennett - who's yet to live up to his promise but is still a young prospect), a $6,3M trade exception, and $12M in free cap space. 

AND Love was an unrestricted free agent who very clearly stated that if they didn't trade him he would walk. 

That's a clear distinction from the simple "they traded Kevin Love for the #1 pick" idea. 

[crimson_stallion]

The top pick isn't as much of a sure thing as an established player, but that's offset by the super low cost of the rookie deal.  Then you get them for their second contract which is a bargain if they are the real deal.

like it or not, top picks have tremendous value unless it's a really weak draft (e.g. 2013).

I agree, the top picks certainly have high trade value - but not 'superstar' high. 

Of course there will always be SOME dependency on your situation as a team.  If you're going through a rebuild, and your superstar is a 33 year old low level superstar (say, Marc Gasol three years from now) then yeah you'd probably trade him for a #1 or #2 pick in a deep draft.

If your superstar is a 24-25 year old guy (like Love) then you'll probably never trade that guy for a #1 or #2 pick, regardless of whether you are trying to compete or rebuild. 

Love was a special circumstance because he was an unrestricted free agent and was forcing his way out of Minnesota.  It was basically "trade me or I walk".  The Wolves didn't trade him because the #1 pick was more valuable to them...they traded him because it was either that, or let him walk for nothing. 

If Love was willing to re-sign with Minnesota, then I VERY strongly doubt that trade would have even been discussed.

If I was on a team like the Celtics (young, but wanting to win ASAP) and had the #1 or #2 pick in a draft like this one...and I was offered LaMarcus Aldridge, Anthony Davis, Demarcus Cousins or Jimmy Butler in a trade for that draft pick...then I'd make that trade in a heartbeat.

Why? 

Because the main reason you WANT that draft pick is in the hope that the player you choose may one day becomes as good as those very superstars.  Why HOPE you could one day have that star, if you can have that star for certain right now? 

You're basically saying that the only benefit to a #1 or #2 pick over an established superstar is that you're paying them less money.  So what, you're going to give up on the chance to add a superstar to your team just for the sake of saving a few million bucks?  A team with that type of approach isn't going anywhere in today's NBA. 

Nah, the teams who DO go far by building through the draft (OKC, Golden State, etc) do so because that was their only option at the time.  They didn't have the money and/or appeal to attract any major free agents, so they went after draft picks instead.  If they could have gotten big name stars via trade / FA instead, I can assure you they'd have done it.

For example, lets say the Timberwolves offered the Knicks the #1 pick this year for Carmelo Anthony - do you think the Knicks do it?  I would say, no chance.  Carmelo is the face of the Knicks right now, he's what keeps fans coming to games and money coming in the doors.  Trade him for a draft pick and watch your profits sift away like water down a drain, 

[crimson_stallion]

Towns - Yes
Okafor - Not without qualms, but yes.
Embiid - No. Too much risk. There is a pattern here with the injuries and the healing. It will happen again.

2014's draft was clearly stronger going in than this year's. The top two tiers aren't as deep, and though the middle is as good, the back end is much weaker.

If this is true the DEFINITELY a no, because the 2014 draft was terrible...really terrible.  The highest scorer in he draft averaged what - 17 PPG on one of the worst teams in the NBA?  The second best scorer averaged 13 PPG or so.  That's got to be historically one of the worst draft's of the past 10 years, right?

I mean in terms of impact Marcus Smart was CLEARLY the most valuable player in the entire draft, since he played a critical role in leading Boston to the playoffs.  If you have arguably the most valuable player in the this year's draft, why would you trade him for another draft pick in a WORSE draft?

I take it you don't watch much basketball, because Andrew Wiggins had a fantastic rookie campaign and Jabari Parker looked pretty good until he went down with injury. Maybe you're thinking of the 2013 Draft, which was quite literally one of the worst drafts in NBA history. But if you're talking about the 2014 Draft then frankly, you're just wrong.

Sorry, but Wiggins averaged 17 points (on an pretty inefficient 1.21 points per FGA) to go 2.1 assists and a woeful (for a hyper athletic 6'8" SF) 4.6 rebounds in 36 minutes per game, while ranking bottom 15% (74/86) in the league defensively at the small forward position.

Parker averaged 12.3 points (on an even more inefficient 1.17 points per FGA) to go with 5.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 29.5 MPG while ranking and ranking bottom 5% (82/86) in the league defensively at the small forward position.  Parker's overall Real-Plus-Minus of -4.33 ranks 40th worst (bottom 9%) among all active NBA players, regardless of position.  That means when he got on the court his team got a LOT worse on both ends of the court.

Those were clearly the two best players from the draft class statistically, yet both were clearly one sided players - all offense, no defense - and both statistically made their teams worse when they stepped on the court. 

Lets be serious here...when the second best player in a draft class ends up averaging 12 PPG and being bottom 5% in the entire league defensively...that's a really bad draft class.

Everybody talks about how bad the 2013 draft class was, but the top two scorers in that draft were Michael Carter-Williams (16.7 PPG) and Victor Oladipo (13.8 PPG) - those guys were right up there statistically with Wiggins and Parker.  Then you can add Nerlens Noel to that list too, since he also came from the 2013 draft.

In fact, the 2013 draft produced two players who (in their rookies years) managed to average double figure scoring while also having a positive defensive impact on their teams:

1) Victor Oladipo (13.8 PPG and +0.97 DRPM) 
2) Nerlens Noel (10 PPG and +3.36 DRPM)

There isn't a single player from the 2014 draft who can make that same claim - not a single guy who you could even try to argue was a two-way player. 

Now looking back at 2014, lets look at the top 8 picks:

1) Wiggins: Good offensive player, slight defensive liability
2) Parker: Average offensive player, major defensive liability
3) Embiid: Didn't play a single game
4) Gordon: Sucked completely, barely got minutes on a lottery team
5) Exum: Sucked completely, barely got minutes on a lottery team
6) Smart: Below average offensive player, elite defensively
7) Randle: Played one game
Nik Stauskas: Sucked completely, barely got minutes on a lottery team
9) Noah Vonleh: Some injury issues and barely got minutes on a lottery team
10) Elfrid Payton: Below average offensive player, elite defensively

So looking at that time 10 I would have to say the top 4 players from that year were:

1) Wiggins - Very good offense, below average defense
=2) Smart - below average offense, elite defense
=2) Payton - Below average offense, elite defense
4) Parker - average offense, horrible defense

Yep...that's a pretty bad draft if those are your top 4 players.

[max215]

Towns - Yes
Okafor - Not without qualms, but yes.
Embiid - No. Too much risk. There is a pattern here with the injuries and the healing. It will happen again.

2014's draft was clearly stronger going in than this year's. The top two tiers aren't as deep, and though the middle is as good, the back end is much weaker.

If this is true the DEFINITELY a no, because the 2014 draft was terrible...really terrible.  The highest scorer in he draft averaged what - 17 PPG on one of the worst teams in the NBA?  The second best scorer averaged 13 PPG or so.  That's got to be historically one of the worst draft's of the past 10 years, right?

I mean in terms of impact Marcus Smart was CLEARLY the most valuable player in the entire draft, since he played a critical role in leading Boston to the playoffs.  If you have arguably the most valuable player in the this year's draft, why would you trade him for another draft pick in a WORSE draft?

I take it you don't watch much basketball, because Andrew Wiggins had a fantastic rookie campaign and Jabari Parker looked pretty good until he went down with injury. Maybe you're thinking of the 2013 Draft, which was quite literally one of the worst drafts in NBA history. But if you're talking about the 2014 Draft then frankly, you're just wrong.

Wiggins averaged a pretty inefficient (1.21 points per FGA)  17 points, 2.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds in 36 minutes and ranked 74/86 (bottom 15% in the league) at his position defensively.  His overall Real-Plus-Minus of -1.65 indicates that the Timberwolves (who were already one of the worst teams in the NBA) got worse every time he stepped on the floor.

Parker averaged an even more inefficient (1.17 points per FGA) 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 29.5 MPG and ranked 82/86 (bottom 55 in the league) at his position defensively.  His overall Real-Plus-Minus of -4.33 ranks 40th worst among all NBA players regardless of position.  That means the Bucks got drastically worse when he got on the court.  They might need to thank his injury, because if Parker was on the court all season the Bucks may have never made the playoffs.   

Wiggins is really the only player from the 2014 rookie class who showed any thing even resembling star potential, and even then his defense was so poor that he was a liability to the team overall when he was on the court.

The only two rookies who actually made their teams better were Marcus Smart and Elfrid Payton, neither of whom put up any special statistical numbers. 

Lets be serious here...when the second best player in a draft class ends up averaging 12 PPG and being bottom 5% in the entire league defensively...that's a really bad draft class.

I mean, everybody talks about the 2013 draft class, that produced Kelly Olynyk, as one of the worst in NBA history...but the top three scorers in that draft from memory were Michael Carter-Williams (16.7 PPG), Victor Oladipo (13.8 PPG) and Tim Hardaway Jr (10.2 PPG).   Then you can add Nerlens Noel to that list, since he is (right now) far and away superior to any big men that came through in 2014. 

How on earth was the 2014 draft any better than that, going off rookie year numbers alone?

In fact last season Victor Oladipo managed to put up double figure scoring numbers (13.8 points,  4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists) while also having a positive defensive impact (DRPM of +0.97) - showing that he has the ability to be a two-way player.   

Nerlens Noel did the same, averaging 10 points and 8 rebounds (plus 1.8 steals and 1.9 blocks) and having one of the best defensive ratings in the NBA.

There is not even one single guy from the 2014 draft who you could legitimately consider to be a two-way player.  Not one player who was able to put up double figure scoring numbers AND have a positive defensive impact on the defensive end of the court.

Then consider the fact that four of the guys taken in the top 5 were duds in their rookie year:
* Joel Embiid didn't play a game
* Aaron Gordon and  Dante Exum sucked and struggled to get minutes on lottery teams
* Julius Randle played in one game before being lost for the season 

Oh yeah, it was a bad draft class.  A real bad draft class.  Look up the past 20 years of drafts and try to find the worst ones you can possible find - this one was right up there.
 

Yes, my friend -

TP, good post. I've got to admit it, in terms of stats, you're definitely right. I didn't realize just how great the quality disparity was in terms of stats. However, if we're talking star potential, Wiggins (and maybe) Parker each have much more star potential than anyone from 2013. Not to mention that 1 and 2 years respectively are not large enough sample sizes to judge draft classes. I do think that in roughly 5 (or probably fewer) years the 2014 Draft will compare more favorably to the 2013 Draft. I do have to admit though, as of now, you're right and I'm wrong.

[Ilikesports17]

Towns - Yes
Okafor - Not without qualms, but yes.
Embiid - No. Too much risk. There is a pattern here with the injuries and the healing. It will happen again.

2014's draft was clearly stronger going in than this year's. The top two tiers aren't as deep, and though the middle is as good, the back end is much weaker.

If this is true the DEFINITELY a no, because the 2014 draft was terrible...really terrible.  The highest scorer in he draft averaged what - 17 PPG on one of the worst teams in the NBA?  The second best scorer averaged 13 PPG or so.  That's got to be historically one of the worst draft's of the past 10 years, right?

I mean in terms of impact Marcus Smart was CLEARLY the most valuable player in the entire draft, since he played a critical role in leading Boston to the playoffs.  If you have arguably the most valuable player in the this year's draft, why would you trade him for another draft pick in a WORSE draft?

I take it you don't watch much basketball, because Andrew Wiggins had a fantastic rookie campaign and Jabari Parker looked pretty good until he went down with injury. Maybe you're thinking of the 2013 Draft, which was quite literally one of the worst drafts in NBA history. But if you're talking about the 2014 Draft then frankly, you're just wrong.

Wiggins averaged a pretty inefficient (1.21 points per FGA)  17 points, 2.1 assists and 4.6 rebounds in 36 minutes and ranked 74/86 (bottom 15% in the league) at his position defensively.  His overall Real-Plus-Minus of -1.65 indicates that the Timberwolves (who were already one of the worst teams in the NBA) got worse every time he stepped on the floor.

Parker averaged an even more inefficient (1.17 points per FGA) 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 29.5 MPG and ranked 82/86 (bottom 55 in the league) at his position defensively.  His overall Real-Plus-Minus of -4.33 ranks 40th worst among all NBA players regardless of position.  That means the Bucks got drastically worse when he got on the court.  They might need to thank his injury, because if Parker was on the court all season the Bucks may have never made the playoffs.   

Wiggins is really the only player from the 2014 rookie class who showed any thing even resembling star potential, and even then his defense was so poor that he was a liability to the team overall when he was on the court.

The only two rookies who actually made their teams better were Marcus Smart and Elfrid Payton, neither of whom put up any special statistical numbers. 

Lets be serious here...when the second best player in a draft class ends up averaging 12 PPG and being bottom 5% in the entire league defensively...that's a really bad draft class.

I mean, everybody talks about the 2013 draft class, that produced Kelly Olynyk, as one of the worst in NBA history...but the top three scorers in that draft from memory were Michael Carter-Williams (16.7 PPG), Victor Oladipo (13.8 PPG) and Tim Hardaway Jr (10.2 PPG).   Then you can add Nerlens Noel to that list, since he is (right now) far and away superior to any big men that came through in 2014. 

How on earth was the 2014 draft any better than that, going off rookie year numbers alone?

In fact last season Victor Oladipo managed to put up double figure scoring numbers (13.8 points,  4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists) while also having a positive defensive impact (DRPM of +0.97) - showing that he has the ability to be a two-way player.   

Nerlens Noel did the same, averaging 10 points and 8 rebounds (plus 1.8 steals and 1.9 blocks) and having one of the best defensive ratings in the NBA.

There is not even one single guy from the 2014 draft who you could legitimately consider to be a two-way player.  Not one player who was able to put up double figure scoring numbers AND have a positive defensive impact on the defensive end of the court.

Then consider the fact that four of the guys taken in the top 5 were duds in their rookie year:
* Joel Embiid didn't play a game
* Aaron Gordon and  Dante Exum sucked and struggled to get minutes on lottery teams
* Julius Randle played in one game before being lost for the season 

Oh yeah, it was a bad draft class.  A real bad draft class.  Look up the past 20 years of drafts and try to find the worst ones you can possible find - this one was right up there.
 

Yes, my friend -

You absolutely cannot judge a draft based on the first year. Ppt for rookies isn't particularly meaningful.

As you said randle embiid parker and Gordon faced injuries but they still all have high ceilings. Exum and vonleh were projects and it's silly I dismiss them already.

Smart and Payton both were good this year, wiggins has undeniable talent. Nurkic clarkson hood all showed a good deal of promise and we still haven't seen hardly anything from saric young or McDermott  and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few nice players.

Sure no one from this draft leapt of the page in year 1, but I think it's ridiculous to crown it the worst draft ever while the #2 pick
Missed 1/2 a season #3,7 and 12 missed the whole year , and 4,5,and 9 were all huge projects who faced injuries.

[crimson_stallion]

TP, good post. I've got to admit it, in terms of stats, you're definitely right. I didn't realize just how great the quality disparity was in terms of stats. However, if we're talking star potential, Wiggins (and maybe) Parker each have much more star potential than anyone from 2013. Not to mention that 1 and 2 years respectively are not large enough sample sizes to judge draft classes. I do think that in roughly 5 (or probably fewer) years the 2014 Draft will compare more favorably to the 2013 Draft. I do have to admit though, as of now, you're right and I'm wrong.

All good, it was easy to get caught up in the hype of the draft and even I was expecting huge things from some of those players, but sadly most of them busted pretty badly in year 1!

In fact if you compare the per 36 minute numbers of Jabari Parker and Kelly Olynyk from their rookie years, Parker quickly starts to look...not so spectacular:

Parker: 15.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, 49% FG, 25% 3PT, 70% FT
Olynyk: 15.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, 46% FG, 35% 3PT, 81% FT

Honestly, even if you're talking about future potential, the 2013 draft also produced:

1) Nerlens Noel
2) Ben McLemore
3) Giannis Antetokounmpo
4) Steven Adams
5) Kelly Olynyk
6) Dennis Schroeder
7) Gorgui Dieng
Rudy Gobert

If you ask me, personally, I'd say that's at least as many players with high future upside as you'd find in the 2014 draft, where you basically have:

1) Embiid
2) Wiggins
3) Parker (debatable - I don't think he'll be as good as others do)
4) Exum
5) Smart
6) Payton
7) Vonleh
Lavine

Really don't see any more upside in the 2014 draft either, TBH.

[max215]

TP, good post. I've got to admit it, in terms of stats, you're definitely right. I didn't realize just how great the quality disparity was in terms of stats. However, if we're talking star potential, Wiggins (and maybe) Parker each have much more star potential than anyone from 2013. Not to mention that 1 and 2 years respectively are not large enough sample sizes to judge draft classes. I do think that in roughly 5 (or probably fewer) years the 2014 Draft will compare more favorably to the 2013 Draft. I do have to admit though, as of now, you're right and I'm wrong.

All good, it was easy to get caught up in the hype of the draft and even I was expecting huge things from some of those players, but sadly most of them busted pretty badly in year 1!

In fact if you compare the per 36 minute numbers of Jabari Parker and Kelly Olynyk from their rookie years, Parker quickly starts to look...not so spectacular:

Parker: 15.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.2 blocks, 49% FG, 25% 3PT, 70% FT
Olynyk: 15.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, 46% FG, 35% 3PT, 81% FT

Honestly, even if you're talking about future potential, the 2013 draft also produced:

1) Nerlens Noel
2) Ben McLemore
3) Giannis Antetokounmpo
4) Steven Adams
5) Kelly Olynyk
6) Dennis Schroeder
7) Gorgui Dieng
Rudy Gobert

If you ask me, personally, I'd say that's at least as many players with high future upside as you'd find in the 2014 draft, where you basically have:

1) Embiid
2) Wiggins
3) Parker (debatable - I don't think he'll be as good as others do)
4) Exum
5) Smart
6) Payton
7) Vonleh
Lavine

Really don't see any more upside in the 2014 draft either, TBH.

IMO, Embiid and Wiggins both have the potential to be top 5 players in the NBA, while no one from 2013 does (for the record, Giannis is one of my favorite players in the league). Just a side note: Bennett probably makes 2013 look a lot worse than it was. I think it's more that the talent from 2013 was more evenly dispersed throughout (ie many early picks busted while players like Giannis and Gobert pick up the slack) than in 2014.

[crimson_stallion]

You absolutely cannot judge a draft based on the first year. Ppt for rookies isn't particularly meaningful.

As you said randle embiid parker and Gordon faced injuries but they still all have high ceilings. Exum and vonleh were projects and it's silly I dismiss them already.

Smart and Payton both were good this year, wiggins has undeniable talent. Nurkic clarkson hood all showed a good deal of promise and we still haven't seen hardly anything from saric young or McDermott  and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few nice players.

Sure no one from this draft leapt of the page in year 1, but I think it's ridiculous to crown it the worst draft ever while the #2 pick
Missed 1/2 a season #3,7 and 12 missed the whole year , and 4,5,and 9 were all huge projects who faced injuries.

Who said it's the worst draft ever?  I didn't, 

All I said is that if you compare the rookie season's of guys from this year's draft to guys from previous drafts, this year's class was horrible.

Randle and Embiid, as you said, didn't really play.  That means we can't call them busts - but we also can't say they were successful.  Both guys have a long history of injury problems, and bigs are more prone to injuries than other players - plus both are pretty heavy (240-250 pounds) guys so no matter how you look at it, there's a lot of risk in both cases.

Gordon and Parker both faced injuries, but we got more than enough pre-injury games from both players to get a feel for how their rookie season would have gone.  Gordon absolutely sucked (and I don't see the upside you do) and Parker shows zero indication that his offense will translate to the NBA (but every indicate that his horrible defense would). 

Exum and Vonleh are raw prospects, as you say, so you don't expect consistently great results.  But neither of those guys showed even flashes of brilliance, so forgive me if I don't get overwhelmed with excitement.

Smart and Payton are both elite defensive guards who have a long way to go offensively.  Neither has shown any real signs that they have legit star potential, but I do think both will be (at the very least) good NBA players. 

Clarkson is Jordan Crawford 2.0 from head to toe - he's chucker who scored a good number of points of a ton of attempts on a bad team, and his defense was terrible.

Saric may or may not ever come over...and nobody knows if he'll be any good at all. 

McDermott struggled pretty badly at the one single thing he's supposed to be great at - shooting.

Nurkic showed he can be a defensive force, but didn't get enough minutes to prove he can be a legitimate offensive presence in the league.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter how you choose to sugarcoat it...so far the 2014 draft class has done NOTHING AT ALL to show that it's any better than the 2013 class was at this time last year. That may or may not change over the next 2-3 years, but we can't judge a class based on what it might one day be - we can only judge based on what we see now, then re-evaluate later.

Consider that the 2012 NBA draft produced the following players (first year stats in brackets):
* Anthony Davis (13.5 points, 8 rebounds)
* Bradley Beal (13.9 Points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists)
* Damian Lillard (19 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists)
* Harrison Barnes (9.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists)

That's already four guys who put up pretty much double figure scoring in their first year...whearas this year we only had two (Wiggins and Parker).  Plus I don't think either of those 4 guys were as bad defensively in their first year as Parker was this year.

[knuckleballer]

Towns - Yes
Okafor - Not without qualms, but yes.
Embiid - No. Too much risk. There is a pattern here with the injuries and the healing. It will happen again.

2014's draft was clearly stronger going in than this year's. The top two tiers aren't as deep, and though the middle is as good, the back end is much weaker.

If this is true the DEFINITELY a no, because the 2014 draft was terrible...really terrible.  The highest scorer in he draft averaged what - 17 PPG on one of the worst teams in the NBA?  The second best scorer averaged 13 PPG or so.  That's got to be historically one of the worst draft's of the past 10 years, right?

I mean in terms of impact Marcus Smart was CLEARLY the most valuable player in the entire draft, since he played a critical role in leading Boston to the playoffs.  If you have arguably the most valuable player in the this year's draft, why would you trade him for another draft pick in a WORSE draft?

I take it you don't watch much basketball, because Andrew Wiggins had a fantastic rookie campaign and Jabari Parker looked pretty good until he went down with injury. Maybe you're thinking of the 2013 Draft, which was quite literally one of the worst drafts in NBA history. But if you're talking about the 2014 Draft then frankly, you're just wrong.

Sorry, but Wiggins averaged 17 points (on an pretty inefficient 1.21 points per FGA) to go 2.1 assists and a woeful (for a hyper athletic 6'8" SF) 4.6 rebounds in 36 minutes per game, while ranking bottom 15% (74/86) in the league defensively at the small forward position.

Parker averaged 12.3 points (on an even more inefficient 1.17 points per FGA) to go with 5.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists in 29.5 MPG while ranking and ranking bottom 5% (82/86) in the league defensively at the small forward position.  Parker's overall Real-Plus-Minus of -4.33 ranks 40th worst (bottom 9%) among all active NBA players, regardless of position.  That means when he got on the court his team got a LOT worse on both ends of the court.

Those were clearly the two best players from the draft class statistically, yet both were clearly one sided players - all offense, no defense - and both statistically made their teams worse when they stepped on the court. 

Lets be serious here...when the second best player in a draft class ends up averaging 12 PPG and being bottom 5% in the entire league defensively...that's a really bad draft class.

Everybody talks about how bad the 2013 draft class was, but the top two scorers in that draft were Michael Carter-Williams (16.7 PPG) and Victor Oladipo (13.8 PPG) - those guys were right up there statistically with Wiggins and Parker.  Then you can add Nerlens Noel to that list too, since he also came from the 2013 draft.

In fact, the 2013 draft produced two players who (in their rookies years) managed to average double figure scoring while also having a positive defensive impact on their teams:

1) Victor Oladipo (13.8 PPG and +0.97 DRPM) 
2) Nerlens Noel (10 PPG and +3.36 DRPM)

There isn't a single player from the 2014 draft who can make that same claim - not a single guy who you could even try to argue was a two-way player. 

Now looking back at 2014, lets look at the top 8 picks:

1) Wiggins: Good offensive player, slight defensive liability
2) Parker: Average offensive player, major defensive liability
3) Embiid: Didn't play a single game
4) Gordon: Sucked completely, barely got minutes on a lottery team
5) Exum: Sucked completely, barely got minutes on a lottery team
6) Smart: Below average offensive player, elite defensively
7) Randle: Played one game
Nik Stauskas: Sucked completely, barely got minutes on a lottery team
9) Noah Vonleh: Some injury issues and barely got minutes on a lottery team
10) Elfrid Payton: Below average offensive player, elite defensively

So looking at that time 10 I would have to say the top 4 players from that year were:

1) Wiggins - Very good offense, below average defense
=2) Smart - below average offense, elite defense
=2) Payton - Below average offense, elite defense
4) Parker - average offense, horrible defense

Yep...that's a pretty bad draft if those are your top 4 players.

In fairness, MCW and Olynyk were 22 year old rookies and Hardaway and Oladipo were 21 while Wiggins, Parker, Gordon, and Exum were all 19.  It's not really a fair comparison.

[crimson_stallion]

IMO, Embiid and Wiggins both have the potential to be top 5 players in the NBA, while no one from 2013 does (for the record, Giannis is one of my favorite players in the league). Just a side note: Bennett probably makes 2013 look a lot worse than it was. I think it's more that the talent from 2013 was more evenly dispersed throughout (ie many early picks busted while players like Giannis and Gobert pick up the slack) than in 2014.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I look at Wiggins and I see a floor of Jeff Green and a Ceiling of Demar Derozan.  He's not a good enough passer, rebounder or defender to become an all-out superstar and he doesn't have offensive skill set or drive to become a lights out scorer.    If Wiggins ever becomes even a top 15 player, I'll be surprised.

Embiid is a bit harder to predict because we just haven't seen what he can do on an NBA level yet.  He's got great physical gifts for a center, and has a very versatile range of skills - but all of those skills are pretty raw and from what I've seen he needs a LOT of development.  I see question marks in his attitude - does he have the motor, the basketball IQ and the work ethic to reach his potential?  Will his body (which has seemingly given him trouble since high school) hold up long enough to allow him to reach that potential? 

Remember in 2003 everybody was so sure Darko Milicic would become a superstar.  He has similar physical attributes to Embiid, and was also seen as very versatile and skilled...but he struggled to adapt to the NBA, struggled to get his head in it, and we all know where he went from there.  Similar deal with Michael Olowokandi, who had amazing physical attributes (IIRC he was actually a sprinter, or something along those lines) but turned out to be a total bust.  Then there are guys like Vin Baker - similar levels of promise, and skill, but held back by attitude problems and a lack of motivation.

Embiid is high risk player, even before you factor in the injuries.  Throw medical history in there, and he's a higher risk than I'd be willing to take.  I wouldn't be shocked if he became a superstar, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he's out of the NBA by the age of 25 with zero all-star appearance.   

Parker - I don't think he's gonna be anything special.  Never did.  I don't think he has the skills to be the next Joe Johnson, nor the toughness to be the next Paul Pierce.  I think he'll be a 'nice' player - maybe a Nicholas Batum caliber player.  Doubt he'll become much more than that.  Maybe we'll get lucky and he'll become Steve Smith 2.0 - that's a possibility, but I don't think so.  Smith had more guard skills.  A poor man's Shareef Abdur Rahim maybe?   

Payton could easily become (ironically) the next Gary Payton.  Similar physical attributes,  great defender, pretty good passer, and Payton wasn't a great jump shooter at the start (or ever really). I think people are sleeping on him...I think he could become a better player than Wiggins one day.

Smart reminds me of a cross between Tim Hardaway and Andre Iguodala.  I think he'll be a very good player, I've never really seen a guard who's started on a playoff team as a rookie, and made the team better on both ends of the court...and then not become somebody.

Vonleh I think has huge upside, but like Embiid it depends on whether he has the IQ/Motor to reach it.  I think Vonleh has more upside than Embiid though because he's got the three point shot (which he shot very well in college), because he has a bigger length advantage (relative to his position), and because his medical history is far better.  I think he'll be a special kid one day, but we'll find out I guess.  Maybe another Antonio McDyess?

I don;t think Gordon will become anything honestly...same with McDermott, Randle and Stauskas.  I think those guys are all pure 100% busts who will be coming off the bench for somebody 3-4 years from now.

Exum makes me think Shaun Livingston.