NBA DRAFT PICK TRADE VALUES

[CFAN38]

The NFL has a loosely established evaluation for trading picks. Meaning teams have a decent idea what the value is to trade up or down in the draft and what they can expect in return. This does not seem to be an established concept. This is logically due to the different dynamics of the games and the NBA's need for quality over quantity unlike the NFL.

In trying to find some established pick value in the NBA draft I took a quick look at the past few years drafts to see if anything can be extrapolated. I did this to really get an idea how fare up we can really expect DA to be able to trade using the stock pile of picks. I skipped over trades that involved players who where actually used by the receiving teams that traded for them as its hard to place a value on the individual player.

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

#10 = #12 + future protected 1st + future 2nd

#24 = #26 + #55 + future 2nd

2013

#9    = #14 + #21

#13  = #16 + 2 future 2nds (KO trade)

#35 = #38 + #54

#38 = #43 + 2 future 2nds

2012

#17 = #24 + #33 + #34

2010

#23 + #56 = #30 + #35

Ok that that now looks like a math Quiz. I an by no means a numbers guy and other may have a been read on this but here is my take,

Looking at the 2014 trade value of #11 the Cs already have the #16 pick they are lacking the #19.

In 2010 the #30 and #35 moved a team up to #23 while also netting a low second. Based on this comp the #28 and #33 should be able to net a trade that moves up 7 spots.

That would give the Cs #16 + #21 + #45

The Celtics where able in 2013 to trade #16 + 2 future 2nds for #13. Holding precedent to be true then #16 + #45 + a future 2nd = #13

That would give the Cs #13 + #21

By consolidating the Cs picks value the end result is very close to the values used in these two trades

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

2013

#9 = 14 +21

This leads me to speculate that the Cs at least have a shot at pooling this years picks and a future 2nd together to move up into the 9-12 range. With the way the talent tiers look in this draft I don't expect this to be as easy as I have laid out. However if DA is willing to include an semi established player like KO or Sully I think drafting in the 8-10 range is a realistic possibility. 

[Ilikesports17]

The NFL has a loosely established evaluation for trading picks. Meaning teams have a decent idea what the value is to trade up or down in the draft and what they can expect in return. This does not seem to hold true in the NBA. This is logically do to the different dynamics of the games and the NBA's need for quality of quantity unlike the NFL. I took a quick look at the past few years drafts to see if anything can be extrapolated to really get an idea how fare up we can really expect DA to be able to trade using the stock pile of picks. I skipped over trades that involved players who where actuallyftp:// used by the teams that traded for them as its hard to place a value on the individual player.

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

#10 = #12 + future protected 1st + future 2nd

#24 = #26 + #55 + future 2nd

2013

#9    = #14 + #21

#13  = #16 + 2 future 2nds

#35 = #38 + #54

#38 = #43 + 2 future 2nds

2012

#17 = #24 + #33 + #34

2010

#23 + #56 = #30 + #35

Ok that that now looks like a math Quiz. I an by no means a numbers guy and other may have a been read on this but here is my take,

Looking at the 2014 trade value of #11 the Cs already have the #16 pick they are lacking the #19.

In 2010 the #30 and #35 moved a team up to #23 while also netting a low second. Based on this comp the #28 and #33 should be able to net a trade that moves up 7 spots.

That would give the Cs #16 + #21 + #45

The Celtics where able in 2013 to trade #16 + 2 future 2nds for #13. Holding precedent to be true then #16 + #45 + a future 2nd = #13

That would give the Cs #13 + #21

By consolidating the Cs picks value the end result is very close to the values used in these two trades

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

2013

#9 = 14 +21

This leads me to speculate that the Cs at least have a shot at pooling this years picks and a future 2nd together to move up into the 9-12 range. With the way the talent tiers look in this draft I don't expect this to be as easy as I have laid out. However if DA is willing to include an semi established player like KO or Sully I think drafting in the 8-10 range is a realistic possibility.

You also hve to keep in mind that the primary motivation for the bulls trade (11 for 16 and 19)Beas to clear cap space by getting a non garumteed and consolidating firsts.

It's not like they were intent on getting good value.

[CFAN38]

The NFL has a loosely established evaluation for trading picks. Meaning teams have a decent idea what the value is to trade up or down in the draft and what they can expect in return. This does not seem to hold true in the NBA. This is logically do to the different dynamics of the games and the NBA's need for quality of quantity unlike the NFL. I took a quick look at the past few years drafts to see if anything can be extrapolated to really get an idea how fare up we can really expect DA to be able to trade using the stock pile of picks. I skipped over trades that involved players who where actuallyftp:// used by the teams that traded for them as its hard to place a value on the individual player.

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

#10 = #12 + future protected 1st + future 2nd

#24 = #26 + #55 + future 2nd

2013

#9    = #14 + #21

#13  = #16 + 2 future 2nds

#35 = #38 + #54

#38 = #43 + 2 future 2nds

2012

#17 = #24 + #33 + #34

2010

#23 + #56 = #30 + #35

Ok that that now looks like a math Quiz. I an by no means a numbers guy and other may have a been read on this but here is my take,

Looking at the 2014 trade value of #11 the Cs already have the #16 pick they are lacking the #19.

In 2010 the #30 and #35 moved a team up to #23 while also netting a low second. Based on this comp the #28 and #33 should be able to net a trade that moves up 7 spots.

That would give the Cs #16 + #21 + #45

The Celtics where able in 2013 to trade #16 + 2 future 2nds for #13. Holding precedent to be true then #16 + #45 + a future 2nd = #13

That would give the Cs #13 + #21

By consolidating the Cs picks value the end result is very close to the values used in these two trades

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

2013

#9 = 14 +21

This leads me to speculate that the Cs at least have a shot at pooling this years picks and a future 2nd together to move up into the 9-12 range. With the way the talent tiers look in this draft I don't expect this to be as easy as I have laid out. However if DA is willing to include an semi established player like KO or Sully I think drafting in the 8-10 range is a realistic possibility.

You also hve to keep in mind that the primary motivation for the bulls trade (11 for 16 and 19)Beas to clear cap space by getting a non garumteed and consolidating firsts.

It's not like they were intent on getting good value.

That is 100% true and one of the many reasons why establishing pick value is different from the NFL. However the fact does hold true that the Nuggets where willing to give up #11 for #16 + #19 and a future second.

[Ilikesports17]

The NFL has a loosely established evaluation for trading picks. Meaning teams have a decent idea what the value is to trade up or down in the draft and what they can expect in return. This does not seem to hold true in the NBA. This is logically do to the different dynamics of the games and the NBA's need for quality of quantity unlike the NFL. I took a quick look at the past few years drafts to see if anything can be extrapolated to really get an idea how fare up we can really expect DA to be able to trade using the stock pile of picks. I skipped over trades that involved players who where actuallyftp:// used by the teams that traded for them as its hard to place a value on the individual player.

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

#10 = #12 + future protected 1st + future 2nd

#24 = #26 + #55 + future 2nd

2013

#9    = #14 + #21

#13  = #16 + 2 future 2nds

#35 = #38 + #54

#38 = #43 + 2 future 2nds

2012

#17 = #24 + #33 + #34

2010

#23 + #56 = #30 + #35

Ok that that now looks like a math Quiz. I an by no means a numbers guy and other may have a been read on this but here is my take,

Looking at the 2014 trade value of #11 the Cs already have the #16 pick they are lacking the #19.

In 2010 the #30 and #35 moved a team up to #23 while also netting a low second. Based on this comp the #28 and #33 should be able to net a trade that moves up 7 spots.

That would give the Cs #16 + #21 + #45

The Celtics where able in 2013 to trade #16 + 2 future 2nds for #13. Holding precedent to be true then #16 + #45 + a future 2nd = #13

That would give the Cs #13 + #21

By consolidating the Cs picks value the end result is very close to the values used in these two trades

2014

#11 = #16 + #19 + future 2nd

2013

#9 = 14 +21

This leads me to speculate that the Cs at least have a shot at pooling this years picks and a future 2nd together to move up into the 9-12 range. With the way the talent tiers look in this draft I don't expect this to be as easy as I have laid out. However if DA is willing to include an semi established player like KO or Sully I think drafting in the 8-10 range is a realistic possibility.

You also hve to keep in mind that the primary motivation for the bulls trade (11 for 16 and 19)Beas to clear cap space by getting a non garumteed and consolidating firsts.

It's not like they were intent on getting good value.

That is 100% true and one of the many reasons why establishing pick value is different from the NFL. However the fact does hold true that the Nuggets where willing to give up #11 for #16 + #19 and a future second.

Yes good point. That is the key takeaway from this trade.

TP for the research btw

[Robb]

This was a really well done exercise in assigning value.

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/36wv9m/trying_to_create_an_nba_draft_trade_value_chart/

[Celtics4ever]

NFL is not NBA though.

[GC003332]

http://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings

The Celtics rank 6th on that one compared to 5th on the Reddit one.

This is the formula behind the rankings on Tankathon

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

[CFAN38]

This was a really well done exercise in assigning value.

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/36wv9m/trying_to_create_an_nba_draft_trade_value_chart/

This value chart doesnt really work at all for the NBA. Based on this the Cs should be able to trade Min all 4 of their 2015 picks for the 2015 #1 pick and in doing so the Cs actually short change them selves. Not realistic.

[CFAN38]

http://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings

The Celtics rank 6th on that one compared to 5th on the Reddit one.

This is the formula behind the rankings on Tankathon

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

This chart seems more reasonable but I cant realistically believe that the Kings would swap #6 for all the Cs picks. In this sense I think past trades are a much better indication of value. 

[GC003332]

http://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings

The Celtics rank 6th on that one compared to 5th on the Reddit one.

This is the formula behind the rankings on Tankathon

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

This chart seems more reasonable but I cant realistically believe that the Kings would swap #6 for all the Cs picks. In this sense I think past trades are a much better indication of value.

TP
In your research have you found any teams that did jump up the draft multiple times in the same draft?

[Robb]

This was a really well done exercise in assigning value.

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/36wv9m/trying_to_create_an_nba_draft_trade_value_chart/

This value chart doesnt really work at all for the NBA. Based on this the Cs should be able to trade Min all 4 of their 2015 picks for the 2015 #1 pick and in doing so the Cs actually short change them selves. Not realistic.

Did you just check the chart? Author addresses that in the paragraph right before the chart and correlates the position to win shares. If you're aiming at predicting what other teams would trade, then that's not going to work, but if you're looking to find out what might make a successful team and make a case that after the first few picks that it might be a good idea to add quantity, then I think you'd have something.

[tazzmaniac]

http://www.tankathon.com/power_rankings

The Celtics rank 6th on that one compared to 5th on the Reddit one.

This is the formula behind the rankings on Tankathon

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

This chart seems more reasonable but I cant realistically believe that the Kings would swap #6 for all the Cs picks. In this sense I think past trades are a much better indication of value.

I think the Reddit formula better reflects the value difference between the top picks and the bottom picks.  Tankathon has the value of the #1 pick to the #56 pick as roughly 100 to 3.  Reddit has it as 1000 to 5 which seems much more realistic.  I don't think either accurately reflects the much higher value of top 5 and even top 10 picks to the rest of the draft.  Past trades are a much better indication of trade value.  However you still have to account for the wide variance in the quality of the drafts.   

[Boris Badenov]

Here's another list I wrote a while back post summarizing draft day trades where picks were the centerpieces. It goes back a little farther and lists players picked.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78108.msg1884494#msg1884494

2014:

#11 (McDermott) for #16 (Nurkic), #19 (G. Harris) and 2015 2nd rounder
#10 (Payton) for #12 (Saric), future 1st, future 2nd
#24 (Napier) for #26 (Hairston), #55, future 2nd

2013:

#9 (Burke) for #14 (Muhammad), #21 (Dieng)
#13 (Olynyk) for #16 (Noguiera), 2 future 2nds
#16 (Nogueira) for #18 (Larkin), #44 (Muscala)
#27 (Gobert) for #46 (Green), cash
#26 (Roberson) for #29 (Goodwin), cash

2012:

#17 (Zeller) for #24 (Cunningham), #33 (James) and #34 (Crowder)
#12 (Lamb) for #14 (Henson), 2nd rounder (other players involved)

2011:

#25 (Brooks) for #27 (JJJ) and 2nd rounder
#23 (Mirotic) for #28 (Cole) and 2nd rounder

2010:

#18 (Bledsoe) for #32 (Pittman) and Daequan Cook
#27 (Crawford) and cash for #24 (D. Jones)
#23 (Booker) and #56 (Ndiaye) for #30 (L. Hayward) and #35 (Bjelica)

2009:

#24 (Mullens) for #25 (Beaubois) and 2nd rounder

Before then I'm being a bit pickier and focusing only on the "marquee" deals involving valuable picks rather than late first rounders.

2008:

#3 (Mayo) plus players for #5 (Love) and players
#11 (Bayless) and filler for #13 (Rush)

2006:

#2 (Aldridge) and filler for #4 (T. Thomas) and filler
#13 (Sefolosha) for #16 (Carney) and future 2nd

[Boris Badenov]

This was a really well done exercise in assigning value.

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/36wv9m/trying_to_create_an_nba_draft_trade_value_chart/

That's a "draft slot player value" chart, which is not really applicable to trade value.

Nor is the NFL applicable to the NBA, and the reason is the same in both cases: opportunity cost.

You can only play five guys at a time in the NBA, so two guys with a value of 0.5 can't be worth the same as one player with a value of 1.0...you just can't add them up on the court at the same time and make a better player, one has to be taken out when another's in the lineup.

This is why the premium on star talent is higher in the NBA than elsewhere...there are fewer slots into which players can go. Bill Belichick doesn't face that problem given how many slots he has on the team and practice squad, so building depth is more valuable.

Another way to put it: this guy's argument that "the math is actually more strongly in favor of quantity over quality" isn't right, because he's not using the right math.

[danpc55]

we have picks #16,#28,#33,#45 this year and 4 1st rd picks and 4-2nd rd picks next year and we have players that are playing in the league now not maybe good enough or hopefuls.cant we package picks and players to move up in the draft?like den wants to trade ty lawson and they have 5 free agents we can help them out by saving them money and give them players .bos trades sully and sign and trade pressey and babb plus picks for there pick #7.then trade for sac for pic #6 and cousins for bostons pick 16,28 plus kelly o,ty lawson,plus 2016 picks if needed what do you think about that?