Theoretically, which is the riskier pick?

[LilRip]

Inspired by the Upshaw thread about all these red flags and whatnot, it got me thinking to a draft some years back when we ended up with Sully. He was supposed to be a lottery pick but reports of injuries marred his draft stock and he fell all the way to 21. Obviously, that's worked out for us so far.

But now, I ask: which is the riskier pick, in your eyes? To draft a rookie with red flags on injuries (ala Sullinger), or to draft a rookie with red flags on character/attitude (ala Upshaw)?

[BleedGreen1989]

I'll take the guy with injuries. Worst case scenario, he can't play and that's all.

If somebody has character and substance abuse issues, there's really no telling what the "worse case" scenario is.

[hpantazo]

Upshaw by far is the riskier pick. It's not even close.

[nickagneta]

I'll take the guy with injuries. Worst case scenario, he can't play and that's all.

If somebody has character and substance abuse issues, there's really no telling what the "worse case" scenario is.

Agreeing with this but want to stipulate that it really depends on the severity of the character/substance abuse/criminal problems/mental health issues versus that of the nature of the injured player with red flags.

Kid that smokes too much pot, I probably take over a player that is large and has foot injuries similar to that of Brook Lopez and Yao Ming. Kid with severe mental health issues or addiction to something other than pot I probably stay away from more than a kid that blew out an ACL in the NCAA tourney.

Thing is we speculate based on the limited amount of information we have. Those calling for Upshaw in the draft aren't informed enough and given all the red flags that existed, probably wanted to remained uninformed hoping Upshaw was something he wasn't. But to get thrown out of two D1 schools, get an interview with the Celtics bu then not an invite to work out, was pretty much a guarantee that he isn't going to be drafted by the Celtics.

With the Aaron Hernandez situation happening here in Boston and the Celtics having experienced Vin Baker, this team is going to be sensitive to problem prospects and err on the side of taking someone without those red flags. At least that's my opinion.

[wdleehi]

This is dependent on the injury and personality risks. 



Also dependent on how long you think you can use the player before the issue becomes an issue.  Is it long enough to build a "trade value"?   If so, make sure you move that player before the issue hits.



Sully was cleared by the doctor.  It doesn't sound that Upshaw has been cleared by who ever looks at his type of issues.

[hpantazo]

If Upshaw's issues were that he's a kid who smokes too much pot and has some depression issues, similar to Sanders, he would be a great pick. The red flags and projections that he may not even be drafted has me thinking his issues are more along the lines of Aaron Hernadez, in that he is a class A jerk/criminal. That type of player I would stay far, far away from.

[Granath]

No contest.

Injuries heal. Stupid is forever.

[wdleehi]

If Upshaw's issues were that he's a kid who smokes too much pot and has some depression issues, similar to Sanders, he would be a great pick. The red flags and projections that he may not even be drafted has me thinking his issues are more along the lines of Aaron Hernadez, in that he is a class A jerk/criminal. That type of player I would stay far, far away from.

He doesn't have to be a criminal type player to get the non-draftable red flag.

[hpantazo]

If Upshaw's issues were that he's a kid who smokes too much pot and has some depression issues, similar to Sanders, he would be a great pick. The red flags and projections that he may not even be drafted has me thinking his issues are more along the lines of Aaron Hernadez, in that he is a class A jerk/criminal. That type of player I would stay far, far away from.

He doesn't have to be a criminal type player to get the non-draftable red flag.

Considering his talent and size, he does if it's for off court or personality issues rather than physical injury.

[Celtics4ever]

Both, but Upshaw would be riskier also more reward.

[wdleehi]

If Upshaw's issues were that he's a kid who smokes too much pot and has some depression issues, similar to Sanders, he would be a great pick. The red flags and projections that he may not even be drafted has me thinking his issues are more along the lines of Aaron Hernadez, in that he is a class A jerk/criminal. That type of player I would stay far, far away from.

He doesn't have to be a criminal type player to get the non-draftable red flag.

Considering his talent and size, he does if it's for off court or personality issues rather than physical injury.

There are plenty of other mental or personality issues that can cause it. 

[KG Living Legend]

Both, but Upshaw would be riskier also more reward.

Great. Celtics forever up so maybe a knucklehead but he's averaging over 4 blocks in like 20 minutes per game that's ridiculous 8 blocks for 40 minutes I know you can't fix stupid. But stupid is as stupid does my momma always said life is like a box of chocolates you never know what you're gonna get me and Jenny was like peas and carrots.

[PhoSita]

Upshaw.

Sullinger was expected to be a productive, useful NBA player, albeit one without a terribly high ceiling.  He made an immediate impact as a rookie, but only played the first half of that season.


Upshaw might never be able to find his way into an NBA rotation, because guys like that have a tendency to alienate teammates and coaches alike due to personality, work ethic, or fitness issues.  He might even get himself suspended, or decide that he doesn't really want to be a professional basketball player that badly.

It's always riskier to take the guy who might never contribute to your team over the guy who will almost certainly contribute, but not as consistently or reliably as somebody with a better health prognosis.

[saltlover]

Both, but Upshaw would be riskier also more reward.

I think this is the part of the narrative that is too taken for granted.  Coming out of high school, Sullinger was ranked in the top 5-10 players nationally, whereas Upshaw was around 50.  Sullinger had a great freshman year, whereas Upshaw stunk.  To boot, Sullinger was up against much better competition (Big 10 vs. WAC).  Sullinger's numberS were nearly the same his sophomore year.  When Upshaw played after sitting out a year, he looked much better, but also consider that most of his numbers were against Washington's non-conference opponents (he was dismissed three weeks into the conference schedule).  Washington played the 339th strong out of 351 non-conference schedules.  So yes, for a little more than two months Upshaw looked awesome, but it was against very poor competition.  It is ignoring the evidence to say that Upshaw provides more potential reward than did Sullinger on draft night 2012.  Coming to such a conclusion either means you're letting Sullinger's at time frustrating professional career color your opinion, you aren't fully aware of their respective high school and college performances, or both.

[Geo123]

Upshaw by far is the riskier pick. It's not even close.

+1

However having said that we have the picks to take a risk...