The Celtics' search for a star

[hpantazo]

So I suppose the Nets and Hornets simply didn't try hard enough to win this year, huh?  Same with the Pacers?  The Kings and Suns, too ... clearly they just didn't want to win badly enough.

I think with those teams they did indeed try. But neither of them had the upheaval we did in getting their top 2 players traded.

BOS overcame that, CBS righted the ship, and we were on our way.

Next season, with the roster as is, we won't have to worry about those upheavals. Indy and other teams will be better, but so will we.

I expect TOR to falter a bit, NY to still flounder, and - unfortunately - some Star(s) in our conference WILL get hurt, which will help our rankings. This is happening every season, it seems.

Toronto may actually blow it up this summer and rebuild, we could realistically win the division next year.

[GreenFaith1819]

So I suppose the Nets and Hornets simply didn't try hard enough to win this year, huh?  Same with the Pacers?  The Kings and Suns, too ... clearly they just didn't want to win badly enough.

I think with those teams they did indeed try. But neither of them had the upheaval we did in getting their top 2 players traded.

BOS overcame that, CBS righted the ship, and we were on our way.

Next season, with the roster as is, we won't have to worry about those upheavals. Indy and other teams will be better, but so will we.

I expect TOR to falter a bit, NY to still flounder, and - unfortunately - some Star(s) in our conference WILL get hurt, which will help our rankings. This is happening every season, it seems.

Toronto may actually blow it up this summer and rebuild, we could realistically win the division next year.

If they did that, maybe we could snag Amir and Val? Those two could help us up front.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I say the best course of action is to do exactly what we did last off-season. Absorb unwanted contracts (1 year max) and collect picks/ other assets. IMO many teams will be trying to move around unwanted contracts in order to get FA's because of the cap going up. Hopefully the unwanted players we get will be good/great locker room guys ala Wallace and we can use them to help our younger guys while also boosting their stock (Thornton).

In the Draft we trade Avery or + another for a 9-12 pick and get Myles Turner. Then later in the round draft Cliff Alexander. If Upshaw measures a longer wingspan and standing reach than originally thought then we draft him as well. Aleksnader V from Greek league is also another 2nd rounder we can grab.

[greece66]

I say the best course of action is to do exactly what we did last off-season. Absorb unwanted contracts (1 year max) and collect picks/ other assets. IMO many teams will be trying to move around unwanted contracts in order to get FA's because of the cap going up. Hopefully the unwanted players we get will be good/great locker room guys ala Wallace and we can use them to help our younger guys while also boosting their stock (Thornton).

In the Draft we trade Avery or + another for a 9-12 pick and get Myles Turner. Then later in the round draft Cliff Alexander. If Upshaw measures a longer wingspan and standing reach than originally thought then we draft him as well. Aleksnader V from Greek league is also another 2nd rounder we can grab.

Am I the only one who sees a vicious circle here? Trade talent for more draft picks, and once the draft picks prove their talent, we trade them for more picks etc...

Btw, I agree on Aleksander Venenkov Vezenkov from Ares Salonica, if he comes as low as nr 33, he could be a good choice. Good scorer, only 19 yo old, and has experience in a professional league.
Edit: typo correction

[Csfan1984]

I say the best course of action is to do exactly what we did last off-season. Absorb unwanted contracts (1 year max) and collect picks/ other assets. IMO many teams will be trying to move around unwanted contracts in order to get FA's because of the cap going up. Hopefully the unwanted players we get will be good/great locker room guys ala Wallace and we can use them to help our younger guys while also boosting their stock (Thornton).

In the Draft we trade Avery or + another for a 9-12 pick and get Myles Turner. Then later in the round draft Cliff Alexander. If Upshaw measures a longer wingspan and standing reach than originally thought then we draft him as well. Aleksnader V from Greek league is also another 2nd rounder we can grab.

Am I the only one who sees a vicious circle here? Trade talent for more draft picks, and once the draft picks prove their talent, we trade them for more picks etc...

Btw, I agree on Aleksander Venenkov from Ares Salonica, if he comes as low as nr 33, he could be a good choice. Good scorer, only 19 yo old, and has experience in a professional league.

@Future, I am all for those strategies not necessarily for Turner. But wouldn't mind.
@greece666, I agree there is that type of risk. Moving any decent player for a just a draft position bump is always a gamble.

[Greyman]

I don't like the use of the word 'overachieved' because it feels like you aren't giving credit for what has been done - often because your own expectations need validating. The team could only play the teams placed in front of them and proved themselves worthy on the NBA stage. Though ultimately still a team lacking in key areas.

If the Celtics were taken on as a project on 'Pimp my NBA Team', they might be told to just give the standard tune up and drive around for another year. Bring the team back in a year when more has been saved up to spend and there might be more to spend it on. This would make sense like any parent giving advice to their offspring buying a vehicle.

'Pimp my NBA Team' wouldn't be much of a show if that happened though and no young person buying a vehicle really wants to hear what's sensible. You want a more powerful motor, a few stylish fancy things and the ability to beat that car that that other kid has off at the lights.

I am ready for an underwhelming offseason if that is what is needed, sensible. Mostly though I want DA to find that motor and style and give this team the pimping that raises it to 'contender' status. I'm glad there's a part of me that really wants it this offseason and backs DA to have a shot with what he's got.

[PhoSita]

Just for fun, I took a look at the Win Shares per 48 for the guys who finished the year with the Celtics, and did some rough calculations to figure out what the win total would be for a full season with those guys.

I left out Bass and included Jerebko, and used the following rotation:

Smart - 28 min
Thomas - 30 min
Bradley - 30 min
Crowder - 20 min
Turner - 28 min
Zeller - 24 min
Sullinger - 28 min
Olynyk - 24 min
Jerebko - 20 min
Datome - 10 min


The resulting win total, if all of the above played 82 games with those minute averages ....

46.98 wins.


Meaningless?  Sure.  But if you're one of those people who believes the group that went on a run to end the season could win close to 50 games if healthy over a full season, well, that's some ammo for ya.

[greece66]

@PhoSita
Excellent job!
I love it when people get in real detail in their posts.
IMO It's too early to say anything for next year, but I think that if the team we had played together from the beginning it should have been around 50 wins.

[PhoSita]

Okay, I just noticed I allotted 242 minutes instead of 240, so the win total would be slightly lower.  Approximately the same result, though.

[Hemingway]

There are a lot of maybes this offseason. We have an outside chance at a lot of guys and trades, hopefully one or two of these long shots will come through. If we don't get lucky, I expect we can at least broker a trade similar to getting Zeller and Thorton for free last summer.

The cap increases in 16 and 17 really scare me. Normally we could just wait it out, eventually we would have the best deal when a star is getting traded. But now, every team is getting a ton of cap help. So teams that don't look good next year are going to have a hard 2 years. 

[Csfan1984]

There are a lot of maybes this offseason. We have an outside chance at a lot of guys and trades, hopefully one or two of these long shots will come through. If we don't get lucky, I expect we can at least broker a trade similar to getting Zeller and Thorton for free last summer.

The cap increases in 16 and 17 really scare me. Normally we could just wait it out, eventually we would have the best deal when a star is getting traded. But now, every team is getting a ton of cap help. So teams that don't look good next year are going to have a hard 2 years.

Though cap is going up so is the max contract rates. 1/3 or even possibly 2/3 of the league won't have the kind of $ to sign a new max rate player in 2016. C's should remain patient in their spending if they don't land big FA they can afford two (maybe guys that want to pair up) max players next offseason.

[MBunge]

If the Celtics were taken on as a project on 'Pimp my NBA Team', they might be told to just give the standard tune up and drive around for another year. Bring the team back in a year when more has been saved up to spend and there might be more to spend it on. This would make sense like any parent giving advice to their offspring buying a vehicle.

I think Ainge has to do something this offseason.  Whether it's packaging picks this year to move up or signing a free agent or getting involved in a trade, he needs to make a move to maintain the forward momentum.  The rising cap means hording cap space means little and other teams, particularly in the East, should be improving.

Mike

[Csfan1984]

MBunge, I disagree with the cap if certain rfa this year sign only qualifying offers the FA pool next year could be incredible. The C's could sign two max guys which means two players can team up if that appeals to them. Also if C's let their FAs  walk and they make a move up in draft by trading AB and/or Sully they take a step back. Yet in doing so you can land Simmons and Lab lotto shot. You have to believe a pair up of max players, Smart, Lab/Simmons and CBS (and maybe Young) should entice FAs  next year. Patience is key.

[Surferdad]

I say the best course of action is to do exactly what we did last off-season. Absorb unwanted contracts (1 year max) and collect picks/ other assets. IMO many teams will be trying to move around unwanted contracts in order to get FA's because of the cap going up. Hopefully the unwanted players we get will be good/great locker room guys ala Wallace and we can use them to help our younger guys while also boosting their stock (Thornton).

In the Draft we trade Avery or + another for a 9-12 pick and get Myles Turner. Then later in the round draft Cliff Alexander. If Upshaw measures a longer wingspan and standing reach than originally thought then we draft him as well. Aleksnader V from Greek league is also another 2nd rounder we can grab.

Am I the only one who sees a vicious circle here? Trade talent for more draft picks, and once the draft picks prove their talent, we trade them for more picks etc...

Btw, I agree on Aleksander Venenkov Vezenkov from Ares Salonica, if he comes as low as nr 33, he could be a good choice. Good scorer, only 19 yo old, and has experience in a professional league.
Edit: typo correction

It is not futile. The idea is to slowly improve the talent of the team through smart moves, generate trade exceptions, and collect more assets. At some point, the opportunity will arise to acquire one or more difference-makers type players. That is how to build a team.

[Csfan1984]

I say the best course of action is to do exactly what we did last off-season. Absorb unwanted contracts (1 year max) and collect picks/ other assets. IMO many teams will be trying to move around unwanted contracts in order to get FA's because of the cap going up. Hopefully the unwanted players we get will be good/great locker room guys ala Wallace and we can use them to help our younger guys while also boosting their stock (Thornton).

In the Draft we trade Avery or + another for a 9-12 pick and get Myles Turner. Then later in the round draft Cliff Alexander. If Upshaw measures a longer wingspan and standing reach than originally thought then we draft him as well. Aleksnader V from Greek league is also another 2nd rounder we can grab.

Am I the only one who sees a vicious circle here? Trade talent for more draft picks, and once the draft picks prove their talent, we trade them for more picks etc...

Btw, I agree on Aleksander Venenkov Vezenkov from Ares Salonica, if he comes as low as nr 33, he could be a good choice. Good scorer, only 19 yo old, and has experience in a professional league.
Edit: typo correction

It is not futile. The idea is to slowly improve the talent of the team through smart moves, generate trade exceptions, and collect more assets. At some point, the opportunity will arise to acquire one or more difference-makers type players. That is how to build a team.

Reminds me of DAs words paraphrasing but went something like, Assets are picks and exemptions. Players are talent. Takes a combination of the two to make big trades happen.