Would you trade the 16th pick for Dieng

[Tr1boy]

Lol.   Would you trade Dieng for a 1/10 chance at the next Hedo Turkoglu?

For what value of x would you trade Dieng if it meant a x/10 chance at the next Hedo Turkoglu?  I think there exists a value of x less than 10 where that trade should be made.

FYI Hedo never made an allstar team, but I agree he had a good stretch for a few years and is definitely one of a handful of players drafted at #16 who actually made it in the league. 

I can't tell if people are underrating Dieng or not getting my point.   Dieng is a nice player.  He can probably be a starting center somewhere.   Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.  Why would you trade Dieng for a 1/10 chance at Dieng?  Why would you trade Dieng for a 9/10 chance for Dieng?  He's a capable starting center on a rookie contract.  If you're trading him, you should be getting a sure thing in return.  #16 is a crap shoot.  Could maybe see moving him for  5-9 pick if they are targeting someone there.   

If they needed a more traditional PF I could maybe see them moving Dieng for Sully, but Sully being an overweight injury-prone player makes such a trade unlikely.

Bc dieng is not that good (but still has room to grow).All phx got for IT was a future 1st likely worse than 16 and thornton. And IT is a better overall player than Dieng.

You do make a valid pt about how good picks usually end up turning out, especially outside the lotto. But it also depends. If the wolves really like someone at 16 , celts dont and wolves dont need 3 centers. Remember dieng went 19 or somthing when he was drafted

[LarBrd33]

Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.

Your best-case scenario is landing someone who is at least as good as the best player who was ever drafted in that spot, possibly better. 

A 1/30 chance is approximately 3.3%.  The 11th-worst record gives you a 2.9% chance of moving into the top three in the draft lottery.  It may have a small chance of happening, but there's a tangible enough chance of it happening that you shouldn't treat it as practically zero.

If All-Star selections mattered, you failed to highlight at least two former All-Stars on your list.

I highlighted at a quick glance.  Who were the all-stars I missed?  Dana Barros made an all-star team once.  Accidentally skipped him. 

Still shows that picks that late are a crap-shoot.  Why trade a young guy on a rookie contract who can actually play and receive a scratch ticket in return.  Dieng has as much trade value as anyone on this team aside from maybe Marcus Smart.  You can talk me into the plausibility of trading Dieng for someone like Sully or Olynyk.  Sure, we might end up getting a better player at #16, but the odds are against it happening.

[Irish Stew]

This would be a pretty good deal. Dieng is not an exciting player, but he's a starting caliber center who fills a need for us on the cheap: $1.5m in '15-'16 then a team option for 2.3m. He's 25. On the open market I expect he'd command ~$6-8m/yr, so that's a real asset.

I'd give up #16 for him unless someone like Oubre or Poetl dropped to us there.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that Poeltl has decided to stay. Other than that, you have identified why the Wolves wouldn't make this deal. He is effective and works cheap. Pekovik's physical problems make managing his minutes an important part of their strategy, so the more good bigs the better.

[loco_91]

Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.

Your best-case scenario is landing someone who is at least as good as the best player who was ever drafted in that spot, possibly better. 

A 1/30 chance is approximately 3.3%.  The 11th-worst record gives you a 2.9% chance of moving into the top three in the draft lottery.  It may have a small chance of happening, but there's a tangible enough chance of it happening that you shouldn't treat it as practically zero.

If All-Star selections mattered, you failed to highlight at least two former All-Stars on your list.

I highlighted at a quick glance.  Who were the all-stars I missed?  Dana Barros made an all-star team once.  Accidentally skipped him. 

Still shows that picks that late are a crap-shoot.  Why trade a young guy on a rookie contract who can actually play and receive a scratch ticket in return.  Dieng has as much trade value as anyone on this team aside from maybe Marcus Smart.  You can talk me into the plausibility of trading Dieng for someone like Sully or Olynyk.  Sure, we might end up getting a better player at #16, but the odds are against it happening.

This is a real exaggeration. Dieng is a good asset and worth more than #16, but there's no way he's worth say a top 10, and there's also quite a decent chance that a #16 pick in this draft will pan out better than him. The guy is a solidly average starting center on a good contract, nothing to go gaga about.

[LooseCannon]

Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.

Your best-case scenario is landing someone who is at least as good as the best player who was ever drafted in that spot, possibly better. 

A 1/30 chance is approximately 3.3%.  The 11th-worst record gives you a 2.9% chance of moving into the top three in the draft lottery.  It may have a small chance of happening, but there's a tangible enough chance of it happening that you shouldn't treat it as practically zero.

If All-Star selections mattered, you failed to highlight at least two former All-Stars on your list.

I highlighted at a quick glance.  Who were the all-stars I missed?  Dana Barros made an all-star team once.  Accidentally skipped him. 

Still shows that picks that late are a crap-shoot.  Why trade a young guy on a rookie contract who can actually play and receive a scratch ticket in return.  Dieng has as much trade value as anyone on this team aside from maybe Marcus Smart.  You can talk me into the plausibility of trading Dieng for someone like Sully or Olynyk.  Sure, we might end up getting a better player at #16, but the odds are against it happening.

Besides Barros, you also missed the immortal Chris Gatling.

You can talk about things being a crap shoot in the abstract, but on draft day, I think there is at least a 50% chance that there will be a specific player available at #16 who you like more than Dieng to the point that you would be mad at Ainge if he traded for Dieng rather than taking your preferred target.

[jambr380]

Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.

Your best-case scenario is landing someone who is at least as good as the best player who was ever drafted in that spot, possibly better. 

A 1/30 chance is approximately 3.3%.  The 11th-worst record gives you a 2.9% chance of moving into the top three in the draft lottery.  It may have a small chance of happening, but there's a tangible enough chance of it happening that you shouldn't treat it as practically zero.

If All-Star selections mattered, you failed to highlight at least two former All-Stars on your list.

I highlighted at a quick glance.  Who were the all-stars I missed?  Dana Barros made an all-star team once.  Accidentally skipped him. 

Still shows that picks that late are a crap-shoot.  Why trade a young guy on a rookie contract who can actually play and receive a scratch ticket in return.  Dieng has as much trade value as anyone on this team aside from maybe Marcus Smart.  You can talk me into the plausibility of trading Dieng for someone like Sully or Olynyk.  Sure, we might end up getting a better player at #16, but the odds are against it happening.

Besides Barros, you also missed the immortal Chris Gatling.

You can talk about things being a crap shoot in the abstract, but on draft day, I think there is at least a 50% chance that there will be a specific player available at #16 who you like more than Dieng to the point that you would be mad at Ainge if he traded for Dieng rather than taking your preferred target.

That is generally correct and explains the 'allure' of potential. And as LarBrd pointed out, most people / gms are often wrong (at least when selecting at #16).

Also, LarBrd, when I mentioned Bass earlier as a proven asset worth a late first - I failed to mention that I meant last year (when he still had another year on his contract) and we were also busy moving players in trades.

[LarBrd33]

Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.

Your best-case scenario is landing someone who is at least as good as the best player who was ever drafted in that spot, possibly better. 

A 1/30 chance is approximately 3.3%.  The 11th-worst record gives you a 2.9% chance of moving into the top three in the draft lottery.  It may have a small chance of happening, but there's a tangible enough chance of it happening that you shouldn't treat it as practically zero.

If All-Star selections mattered, you failed to highlight at least two former All-Stars on your list.

I highlighted at a quick glance.  Who were the all-stars I missed?  Dana Barros made an all-star team once.  Accidentally skipped him. 

Still shows that picks that late are a crap-shoot.  Why trade a young guy on a rookie contract who can actually play and receive a scratch ticket in return.  Dieng has as much trade value as anyone on this team aside from maybe Marcus Smart.  You can talk me into the plausibility of trading Dieng for someone like Sully or Olynyk.  Sure, we might end up getting a better player at #16, but the odds are against it happening.

Besides Barros, you also missed the immortal Chris Gatling.

You can talk about things being a crap shoot in the abstract, but on draft day, I think there is at least a 50% chance that there will be a specific player available at #16 who you like more than Dieng to the point that you would be mad at Ainge if he traded for Dieng rather than taking your preferred target.

Are there 16 guys in this draft you think will end up having better careers than Dieng is having already? 

I'm not sure we have a comparable asset on this team.  Most here would agree Marcus Smart is a more valuable chip.   A lot of people have soured on Sullinger due to his atittude, health and injury history.  Some fans here actively want to see us dump Sullinger.   Olynyk is a meh player with a meh future.   If Dieng was on the Celtics he'd probably be the 2nd most valuable asset on the team behind Marcus Smart. 

I was going to ask, "Would you trade Olynyk/Sullinger for a #17 pick?", but it's not a fair question since I imagine a lot of fans here would gladly do that.    Nonetheless, imagine a scenario where we landed another PF... either via the draft, trade (Randle, Lee, Faired) or free agency (Kevin Love, Monroe).    Are you happy with dumping Oly/Sully for a pick in the 20-25 range?  I think that's a fair comparison to the Wolves dumping Dieng for #16.

[ssspence]

What's the chances that the player picked #16 ends up as good as Dieng is right now?  The best-case scenario with a pick that late is someone like Dieng.   It's like saying, "I'll trade you $20 bucks for a scratch ticket where the grand prize is $20 bucks"

Decent. Myriad very good NBA players have been picked there or later (including Dieng, who is merely above average with very little room for growth considering his age).

My point: beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If Flip 'don't call me Bondy' Sanders thinks he sees the next Kahwi Leonard or Greek Freak at 16, you don't think he'd trade Dieng for him considering how young his squad is? Not saying I see it happening, but not major stretch either.

[LarBrd33]

What's the chances that the player picked #16 ends up as good as Dieng is right now?  The best-case scenario with a pick that late is someone like Dieng.   It's like saying, "I'll trade you $20 bucks for a scratch ticket where the grand prize is $20 bucks"

Decent. Myriad very good NBA players have been picked there or later (including Dieng, who is merely above average with very little room for growth considering his age).

My point: beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If Flip 'don't call me Bondy' Sanders thinks he sees the next Kahwi Leonard or Greek Freak at 16, you don't think he'd trade Dieng for him considering how young his squad is? Not saying I see it happening, but not major stretch either.

Certainly good players can be taken after the lotto.  Dieng is a good example of that.   But it's foolish to trade a good player for a long-shot chance at drafting a good player.  If all picks in the 20s landed Dieng-like talent, obviously it would be a trade worth considering.  But at this point you gotta look at Dieng as a top 9 player from his draft.   If Dieng is traded, it'll be for a player who is already established as a comparable young talent... or a draft pick with better odds of landing a quality player.

[BornReady]

id do that in a heart beat
ive been high on dieng since i saw him as a prospect

but wolves would never do this
he is a big part of their future
and if they drafted karl towns that would make an epic athletic big 3

i agree they will try to get rid of pekovic after drafting towns or okafor

[LooseCannon]

Your best case scenario with a pick like that is landing someone like Dieng.

Your best-case scenario is landing someone who is at least as good as the best player who was ever drafted in that spot, possibly better. 

A 1/30 chance is approximately 3.3%.  The 11th-worst record gives you a 2.9% chance of moving into the top three in the draft lottery.  It may have a small chance of happening, but there's a tangible enough chance of it happening that you shouldn't treat it as practically zero.

If All-Star selections mattered, you failed to highlight at least two former All-Stars on your list.

I highlighted at a quick glance.  Who were the all-stars I missed?  Dana Barros made an all-star team once.  Accidentally skipped him. 

Still shows that picks that late are a crap-shoot.  Why trade a young guy on a rookie contract who can actually play and receive a scratch ticket in return.  Dieng has as much trade value as anyone on this team aside from maybe Marcus Smart.  You can talk me into the plausibility of trading Dieng for someone like Sully or Olynyk.  Sure, we might end up getting a better player at #16, but the odds are against it happening.

Besides Barros, you also missed the immortal Chris Gatling.

You can talk about things being a crap shoot in the abstract, but on draft day, I think there is at least a 50% chance that there will be a specific player available at #16 who you like more than Dieng to the point that you would be mad at Ainge if he traded for Dieng rather than taking your preferred target.

Are there 16 guys in this draft you think will end up having better careers than Dieng is having already? 

I'm not sure we have a comparable asset on this team.  Most here would agree Marcus Smart is a more valuable chip.   A lot of people have soured on Sullinger due to his atittude, health and injury history.  Some fans here actively want to see us dump Sullinger.   Olynyk is a meh player with a meh future.   If Dieng was on the Celtics he'd probably be the 2nd most valuable asset on the team behind Marcus Smart. 

I was going to ask, "Would you trade Olynyk/Sullinger for a #17 pick?", but it's not a fair question since I imagine a lot of fans here would gladly do that.    Nonetheless, imagine a scenario where we landed another PF... either via the draft, trade (Randle, Lee, Faired) or free agency (Kevin Love, Monroe).    Are you happy with dumping Oly/Sully for a pick in the 20-25 range?  I think that's a fair comparison to the Wolves dumping Dieng for #16.

I haven't really delved into which draft prospects are any good.  I don't watch any college basketball, so I just don't care enough.

What I do believe is that if there are ten players in this draft who will be better than Dieng, more than one of them will probably still be available at #16.

[Bucketgetter]

C'mon. You have to be realistic when making these threads! Dieng is a top ten defensive center in the league with a respectable offensive game. I would give up KO and two first round picks in a heartbeat. I root for Twolves and Cetics and if the 16th pick for Dieng trade ever happened, I wouldn't watch another twolves game until Flip was out the door.

[Ilikesports17]

C'mon. You have to be realistic when making these threads! Dieng is a top ten defensive center in the league with a respectable offensive game. I would give up KO and two first round picks in a heartbeat. I root for Twolves and Cetics and if the 16th pick for Dieng trade ever happened, I wouldn't watch another twolves game until Flip was out the door.

Noel
Jordan
Gasol
Bogut
Chandler
Cousins
Drummond
Lopez
Gobert
Horford
Hibbert

I would say all of these are better defenders at the center position. I also think Len, Biyombo, Asik, and Whiteside could be argued. And thats just off the top of my head. I am sure there is one or two more.

[Bucketgetter]

C'mon. You have to be realistic when making these threads! Dieng is a top ten defensive center in the league with a respectable offensive game. I would give up KO and two first round picks in a heartbeat. I root for Twolves and Cetics and if the 16th pick for Dieng trade ever happened, I wouldn't watch another twolves game until Flip was out the door.

Noel
Jordan
Gasol
Bogut
Chandler
Cousins
Drummond
Lopez
Gobert
Horford
Hibbert

I would say all of these are better defenders at the center position. I also think Len, Biyombo, Asik, and Whiteside could be argued. And thats just off the top of my head. I am sure there is one or two more.

Bogut? Horford? Hibbert? Maybe offensively, but Dieng finished 7th in blocks among centers and he didn't even start the first 15 games when Pek was fully healthy. Clearly top 10 defensively.

[colincb]

C'mon. You have to be realistic when making these threads! Dieng is a top ten defensive center in the league with a respectable offensive game. I would give up KO and two first round picks in a heartbeat. I root for Twolves and Cetics and if the 16th pick for Dieng trade ever happened, I wouldn't watch another twolves game until Flip was out the door.

Noel
Jordan
Gasol
Bogut
Chandler
Cousins
Drummond
Lopez
Gobert
Horford
Hibbert

I would say all of these are better defenders at the center position. I also think Len, Biyombo, Asik, and Whiteside could be argued. And thats just off the top of my head. I am sure there is one or two more.

Bogut? Horford? Hibbert? Maybe offensively, but Dieng finished 7th in blocks among centers and he didn't even start the first 15 games when Pek was fully healthy. Clearly top 10 defensively.

 

The Wolves are fortunate to have Dieng as a backup on a team with the worst record in the league. Two first rounders don't seem like enough to me. However, Tyler Zeller had better per 36 numbers, a better PER, and a better defensive rating per 100 possessions.  Better Real +/- scores too. So maybe not two firsts.