What is Best for the Nets Picks

[Moranis]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario.  They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece. 

[slamtheking]

IMHO, Lopez will never play a full season.  they're lucky if they get 60-65 games out of him each season.  Granted Thad is an improvement for them but not a huge one.  I think if he has the option to jump ship, he's gone to a contender because I can't see him wanting to play for yet another lousy team

Lopez played 3 consecutive full seasons (82 games) his first three years.  He averaged 18.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg his sophomore year and 20 ppg and 6 rpg his junior year.

Then, he played:
5 games his 4th year
74 games his 5th year
17 games his 6th year
63 games his 7th year (aka this year)

So basically, he got hurt at the end of his third year and it seems to still be bothering him.  I know I am biased and rooting for him to be injured for our picks*, but even in a vacuum, I wouldn't bet on him playing even 40 games next year. 

*thus making me a terrible person, I know

so... you're basically agreeing with my assessment that they'd be lucky to get 60-65 games out of him next year -- correct?

[slamtheking]

I'd say Atlanta wants them to lose more since 70% of this forum would prefer for us to miss the playoffs anyways.

I think your guess is off.  you and the 5 persistant negative-nelly, pro-tanker crowd don't make up 70% of the people here.

[hwangjini_1]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario. They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece.

good points and insightful post, thanks and a tp. i understand your points and do not disagree. yes, johnson might be traded, possible scenarios can be imagined. but it remains, in my mind, a low probability.

plus, what would the nets be taking back that would both make a trade work salary-wise yet benefit them? a hard nut to crack as opposed to simply waiting one more year for johnson and lopez to vanish.

[Monkhouse]

IMHO, Lopez will never play a full season.  they're lucky if they get 60-65 games out of him each season.  Granted Thad is an improvement for them but not a huge one.  I think if he has the option to jump ship, he's gone to a contender because I can't see him wanting to play for yet another lousy team

Lopez played 3 consecutive full seasons (82 games) his first three years.  He averaged 18.8 ppg and 8.6 rpg his sophomore year and 20 ppg and 6 rpg his junior year.

Then, he played:
5 games his 4th year
74 games his 5th year
17 games his 6th year
63 games his 7th year (aka this year)

So basically, he got hurt at the end of his third year and it seems to still be bothering him.  I know I am biased and rooting for him to be injured for our picks*, but even in a vacuum, I wouldn't bet on him playing even 40 games next year. 

*thus making me a terrible person, I know

so... you're basically agreeing with my assessment that they'd be lucky to get 60-65 games out of him next year -- correct?

Lopez has been the most disappointing player on the Nets. With Joe Johnson, most GM's already knew it was a mistake. At the time, inking Lopez to that contract was pretty cut clear and simple. 60-65 is being generous, I don't see him averaging more than 40-45. A player that has such problems staying healthy this close to his age, doesn't seem too promising for his future when he gets older.

[mef730]

So basically, he got hurt at the end of his third year and it seems to still be bothering him.  I know I am biased and rooting for him to be injured for our picks*, but even in a vacuum, I wouldn't bet on him playing even 40 games next year. 

*thus making me a terrible person, I know

"Mommy, somebody on the internet is judging me!" 

Nothing people here haven't already thought.  You don't want him injured, per se.  You just want the consequences of an injury.  Think of it this way: We want Brooke Lopez to fall in love in September and become so enamored with his B'Sheret that he quits basketball to spend all his time with her, living happily ever after.

The troubling thing about the Nets picks is always going to be that they have absolutely no incentive to suck.  In fact, the very idea of handing 3 high lottery picks to the C's over the next three years has to be abhorrent to a violent degree to anyone in the Nets organization.  This has the potential of making the organization into an annual laughing stock. Not to mention, it's the Celtics and Danny Ainge that are making them look that way.   Because of this, I think that the Nets brain trust will do everything they can to remain a playoff team for the next three years.

Given the above premise, I would love to see the C's use the Brooklyn picks to get some star talent or star potential.  If Nets pick(s) added to a package gets the right player(s) in return, it may be the best use of the picks.

That is the thing that worries me as well. That along with the cap boost which will give them some room to crawl their way out of their predicament.

Ive been trying to think of ways to sell their picks back to them as they are more valuable to them than any other team by far as it would provide to them an avenue to get really good players. The currently have no such avenue. However they are so devoid of assets I cant think of a pakcage they could offer us which would be worth a single nets pick.

I personally like Plumlee a lot. He is an athletic big who I think could do really well given the opportunity, but I wouldn't give up the Nets pick for him and hes the only thing of value really on their roster.

I've thought about the free agent issue a lot, particularly as it pertains to 2016.  But I'm having trouble getting there.  The Nets will have cap space and be in a desirable location, but so will many other teams who actually have their own picks.  LA, New York, Dallas, etc.  I don't see Davis or Durant going there.  Maybe you get a Roy Hibbert?  Not sure, but anybody who goes there knows that they have a looonnnggg rebuild ahead of them.

They have no reason to tank, but they might not be able to help it.  And please note, I'm an eternal pessimist, so imagining a scenario as good as this one is hard for me, but it's certainly possible.

Mike

[Moranis]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario. They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece.

good points and insightful post, thanks and a tp. i understand your points and do not disagree. yes, johnson might be traded, possible scenarios can be imagined. but it remains, in my mind, a low probability.

plus, what would the nets be taking back that would both make a trade work salary-wise yet benefit them? a hard nut to crack as opposed to simply waiting one more year for johnson and lopez to vanish.

most of those trades wouldn't require the Nets to take back any salary as Johnson would just slot into existing cap room.  They would obviously get something from the trade (aside from a massive trade exception) but wouldn't have to take back major salary.

[slamtheking]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario. They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece.

good points and insightful post, thanks and a tp. i understand your points and do not disagree. yes, johnson might be traded, possible scenarios can be imagined. but it remains, in my mind, a low probability.

plus, what would the nets be taking back that would both make a trade work salary-wise yet benefit them? a hard nut to crack as opposed to simply waiting one more year for johnson and lopez to vanish.

most of those trades wouldn't require the Nets to take back any salary as Johnson would just slot into existing cap room.  They would obviously get something from the trade (aside from a massive trade exception) but wouldn't have to take back major salary.

I suspect they will though.  not because the salary cap restrictions will require it but whoever their trading partner is will require it.  not in one large matching contract but in multiple, smaller bad contracts.  JJ's contract may be for 1 year but that is an extremely large cap hit regardless of what cap is increased to and why should a team to the Nets the favor of taking that deal on AND give them a huge trade exception without looking to unload some players/contracts they themselves don't want?

[tazzmaniac]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario. They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece.

good points and insightful post, thanks and a tp. i understand your points and do not disagree. yes, johnson might be traded, possible scenarios can be imagined. but it remains, in my mind, a low probability.

plus, what would the nets be taking back that would both make a trade work salary-wise yet benefit them? a hard nut to crack as opposed to simply waiting one more year for johnson and lopez to vanish.

most of those trades wouldn't require the Nets to take back any salary as Johnson would just slot into existing cap room.  They would obviously get something from the trade (aside from a massive trade exception) but wouldn't have to take back major salary.

I suspect they will though.  not because the salary cap restrictions will require it but whoever their trading partner is will require it.  not in one large matching contract but in multiple, smaller bad contracts.  JJ's contract may be for 1 year but that is an extremely large cap hit regardless of what cap is increased to and why should a team to the Nets the favor of taking that deal on AND give them a huge trade exception without looking to unload some players/contracts they themselves don't want?

They probably wouldn't unless they were incentivized by a draft pick or young player.  There were rumors about Jordan wanting Johnson and the Nets getting Stephenson.  The following trade would work.  They could add a 3rd team (e.g. Philly) to take Williams and/or Roberts for draft pick(s).     

Brooklyn gets:   Stephenson, Williams, Roberts
Charlotte gets:   Johnson
 

[hwangjini_1]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario. They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece.

good points and insightful post, thanks and a tp. i understand your points and do not disagree. yes, johnson might be traded, possible scenarios can be imagined. but it remains, in my mind, a low probability.

plus, what would the nets be taking back that would both make a trade work salary-wise yet benefit them? a hard nut to crack as opposed to simply waiting one more year for johnson and lopez to vanish.

most of those trades wouldn't require the Nets to take back any salary as Johnson would just slot into existing cap room.  They would obviously get something from the trade (aside from a massive trade exception) but wouldn't have to take back major salary.

I suspect they will though.  not because the salary cap restrictions will require it but whoever their trading partner is will require it.  not in one large matching contract but in multiple, smaller bad contracts.  JJ's contract may be for 1 year but that is an extremely large cap hit regardless of what cap is increased to and why should a team to the Nets the favor of taking that deal on AND give them a huge trade exception without looking to unload some players/contracts they themselves don't want?

They probably wouldn't unless they were incentivized by a draft pick or young player.  There were rumors about Jordan wanting Johnson and the Nets getting Stephenson.  The following trade would work.  They could add a 3rd team (e.g. Philly) to take Williams and/or Roberts for draft pick(s).     

Brooklyn gets:   Stephenson, Williams, Roberts
Charlotte gets:   Johnson

even given this could or does happen, i dont see it moving the nets out of lottery-land. while many things are possible, i dont see the nets making a dramatic turn around in the next year, and hopefully for years after that.

yes, i too am a terrible person. 

[loco_91]

The key factor in this question: Billy King. He might be the worst GM of all time. They have no incentive to suck, sure--in fact, as pointed out, they are desperate to be decent. But that desperation might be their undoing. I can see them making another bad trade for an over-the-hill vet, still ending up 9th or 10th in 2016, and then continuing to regress in 2017 and '18.

I don't think they'll end up bottom-3, as they won't out-tank the tankers, but I won't be surprised if those '17 and '18 picks are top 10.

Another factor to consider is lotto reform. If it happens, then mid- to late-lotto picks become way more valuable, and we'd have a real shot to land a top-3 pick.

[Quetzalcoatl]

so... you're basically agreeing with my assessment that they'd be lucky to get 60-65 games out of him next year -- correct?

Yeah I actually had a stupid joke about how he missed most games every other season and is now due for a big injury that I deleted, but that part also included a more forceful "I agree with you" part that I edited out along with it.  Kind of a clunky post, but still, I think he gets injured next year.

Bill Simmons tweeted today that even if Lopez opts out, the Nets are still over the cap.  That is amazing, now I've changed my mind again and want him to walk.   

[mef730]

The key factor in this question: Billy King. He might be the worst GM of all time. They have no incentive to suck, sure--in fact, as pointed out, they are desperate to be decent. But that desperation might be their undoing. I can see them making another bad trade for an over-the-hill vet, still ending up 9th or 10th in 2016, and then continuing to regress in 2017 and '18.

I don't think they'll end up bottom-3, as they won't out-tank the tankers, but I won't be surprised if those '17 and '18 picks are top 10.

Another factor to consider is lotto reform. If it happens, then mid- to late-lotto picks become way more valuable, and we'd have a real shot to land a top-3 pick.

They're looking pretty bad.  If they don't make some good signings at the end of 2016, they could be pretty suck-ilicious in 17 and 18.

Mike

[JBcat]

I think there is a decent chance the Nets will be the second or third worst team in the eastern conference next year.  Even if Lopez opts out they still won't have cap space.  Even if he opts in he is injured every year, you are also probably stuck with an injury prone Williams, and now Johnson will be in his mid 30s.  How much trade value do any of these guys really have.

The Knicks will have a good amount of cap space and a returning Melo.  They could leapfrog the Nets.

The Magic and Pistons like us have young improving talent plus lotto picks for the Pistons and Magic again this year.

The Hornets if they re-sign Jefferson should be right back where they are now.  That team could go down quickly though if he leaves.  They don't have much scoring besides him and Walker.

The Pacers could be much better next year with a healthy George.

I don't see the rest of the playoff teams now really regressing that much.  The Heat will get Bosh back.

If you look at the bottom feeders out west you could say the Jazz, Kings, and Wolves all have better talent than the Nets, and I would they those teams should improve.

The Lakers will get Kobe and Randle back, another top pick this year, and loads of cap space.

I could see the Nuggets regressing next year.

I think the Nets are really stuck.  Things don't look too promising for them.

[tazzmaniac]

Johnson has a huge contract but he is still a pretty effective scorer and a quality all around player.  Because of the contract it will be hard to find a good spot for him, but if any of the big money teams miss out on the free agents, I could see him being a fit.   For example, a team like the Lakers might have an interest in a guy like Joe Johnson in that scenario. They could go all in with Johnson and Bryant along with Randle and their top 5 pick this year.  Kobe and JJ then come off the books the next summer and they can try again in free agency.  The Knicks fit that mold as well.  A team like the Sixers who may be well under the salary floor might think a guy like Johnson will help the young guys, so might want him for that role, especially if they start making a push towards relevancy (which they might with Embiid back and their draft picks).

I expect Lopez to opt into in his contract next year, and if he does he certainly has value around the league.  Williams would be tough to move because he will still have another year, but you just never know what team might think a guy like Williams is their missing piece.

good points and insightful post, thanks and a tp. i understand your points and do not disagree. yes, johnson might be traded, possible scenarios can be imagined. but it remains, in my mind, a low probability.

plus, what would the nets be taking back that would both make a trade work salary-wise yet benefit them? a hard nut to crack as opposed to simply waiting one more year for johnson and lopez to vanish.

most of those trades wouldn't require the Nets to take back any salary as Johnson would just slot into existing cap room.  They would obviously get something from the trade (aside from a massive trade exception) but wouldn't have to take back major salary.

I suspect they will though.  not because the salary cap restrictions will require it but whoever their trading partner is will require it.  not in one large matching contract but in multiple, smaller bad contracts.  JJ's contract may be for 1 year but that is an extremely large cap hit regardless of what cap is increased to and why should a team to the Nets the favor of taking that deal on AND give them a huge trade exception without looking to unload some players/contracts they themselves don't want?

They probably wouldn't unless they were incentivized by a draft pick or young player.  There were rumors about Jordan wanting Johnson and the Nets getting Stephenson.  The following trade would work.  They could add a 3rd team (e.g. Philly) to take Williams and/or Roberts for draft pick(s).     

Brooklyn gets:   Stephenson, Williams, Roberts
Charlotte gets:   Johnson

even given this could or does happen, i dont see it moving the nets out of lottery-land. while many things are possible, i dont see the nets making a dramatic turn around in the next year, and hopefully for years after that.

yes, i too am a terrible person. 

I just proposed it as a possible way to move Johnson.  If they got a 3rd team to take on Williams and Roberts, the Nets would get a big trade exception.   It is a possible way for them to try to get themselves out of the mess they are in.  Of course they could just play 2016 out and try to improve in 2017.