Summer Prediction: Cs sign Biyombo to two year, approx $12mil deal

[PhoSita]

A rim protector is important, but I actually think you can take Brad and Ainge at their word on this one -- priority number one is finding some high level talents (or, if you like, "dynamic scorers") who can be the bedrock of the team. 

Once you have that core in place, the guys who set the tone and determine how you are going to set up your game plan each night, then you can make a trade or a savvy signing to shore up the backline defense.  Rim protectors aren't easy to find, true, but there's usually a Timofey Mozgov or Robin Lopez or Chris Andersen type guy available for trade somewhere, and if you have elite talent already in place, that's enough.

The rim protector types who you can actually build a team around -- those are exceptionally rare, and very hard to get.

[Ilikesports17]

Based on CBS's interviews the last few weeks discussing the celtics biggest needs, he consistently says we need 'scoring' and 'versatility'. Biyombo provides neither, and I would never see him fitting into CBS's system anyways.

Too lazy to find the quote you are referring to but I'm pretty sure he acknowledged that our obvious most pressing need was interior defense and that very few of those guys were available in the league. So he listed off some of the other things we need to improve to get out of mediocrity.

No, hpantazo is right. Stevens said the two things we need is versatility and scorers. Biyombo doesn't fit either description.

The quote: 

"From a basketball standpoint,? Stevens said, ?I just think we need to continue to focus on ability to be a little bit more versatile, which I thought helped us as we got later on in the season with a couple of our changes that we made. And then I think shooting is a big deal. Obviously, everybody?s going to talk about rim protectors and those type of things. There?s only so many of those guys. So, I think those other two areas are really important for us."

My impression of that was that people took it out of context.  He was asked what the team needed to add.  I read his response to be, "Well... obviously rim protectors... duh... but that's such an obvious answer, so here's a few of the other many things this crappy team needs to improve."

I believe Ssspence... Biyombo is likely very much on Boston's radar.  And sure, "versatility" and "scoring" are probably right up there with our desires this year.   

EDIT:  Found the video... Check out the context of the quote right here (1:22 mark):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EeyOzXPdwRQ#t=84

It's Brad himself who brings up the obvious need for rim protectors and then tempers our expectations by admitting that... rim protectors are rare.  Only so many of those guys are in the league (and Biyombo happens to be a good one).  Don't be surprised if the team fails to get one.  Certainly Boston will go for the big names... chances are they'll strike out.   There's a chance they will fail to get Biyombo as well since he's restricted.   And trading up for WCS is no easy task.  So... lower them expectations boys... lots of stuff we have to address beyond rim protection.  Whole team is kinda a mess of mediocrity.  Consider Biyombo our "Plan B".  I don't want to see Plan C.

After reading this quote and watching the video more carefully I actually think its less likely to sign Biyombo than I did before.

I read it as him saying. Of course we need a rim protector, but those guys are so rare that we are not going to let it consume our offseason trying to get a guy like Noel or Jordan.

We are going to go after versatile well rounded 2 way guys and build up our team instead.

I took it as him saying we are going to pursue the elite ones.

Maybe we will look at WCS in the draft, Jordan in FA, and try to steal away Noel via trade. However, we will not waste our time signing a mediocre player just because his biggest strength is rim protection.

There are only a few rim protectors out there worth signing and Asik and Ajinca and Biyombo probably arent in that group.

[Ilikesports17]

A rim protector is important, but I actually think you can take Brad and Ainge at their word on this one -- priority number one is finding some high level talents (or, if you like, "dynamic scorers") who can be the bedrock of the team. 

Once you have that core in place, the guys who set the tone and determine how you are going to set up your game plan each night, then you can make a trade or a savvy signing to shore up the backline defense.  Rim protectors aren't easy to find, true, but there's usually a Timofey Mozgov or Robin Lopez or Chris Andersen type guy available for trade somewhere, and if you have elite talent already in place, that's enough.

The rim protector types who you can actually build a team around -- those are exceptionally rare, and very hard to get.

I should have read this before posting.

TP, you put it more eloquently than I did.

basically Brad said if you can get the 1 or 2 rim protectors in the league worth building around then do it. But dont waste your money on some ok rim protector without the rest in place.

[slamtheking]

mediocre

Second that.

Biyombo is not that good.

I don't get the fascination for Biyombo.  hasn't shown anything yet.  if he were as good as some people here rave about, he'd be getting heavy minutes in Charlotte. 

need to add the big piece of the puzzle before bringing in the roster fillers

[Cman]

Just calling it now. I have it on good authority the Cs org feels they can work him into a better, more rounded player, and therefore leverage his shotblocking ability more consistently. If they strike out on a marquee big man early in FA, look for this to happen.

As the "big piece"? Pass. But as a consolation prize on not-top-dollar? I'm interested.
But, I'm most interested in your source. Please don't tell me "deli guy"

[Ilikesports17]

mediocre

Second that.

Biyombo is not that good.

I don't get the fascination for Biyombo.  hasn't shown anything yet.  if he were as good as some people here rave about, he'd be getting heavy minutes in Charlotte. 

need to add the big piece of the puzzle before bringing in the roster fillers

hes 22(younger than Sully and KO) and when he has started hes done quite well.

6.8 points 8.4 boards 1.8 blocks is 27 minutes on 4 fga

This year his per 36 numbers were 9 points 12 boards and 3 blocks.

It would be very reasonable to see an increase in production and unlike Sully or KO he doesnt have the fitness or foul limitations that would keep him from reaching his per 36 stats.

I think he could be a nice pick up regardless, but he becomes a MUCH nicer one if we can add a star or 2 prior to his arrival.

Also, like any free agent you cant overpay him.

[D.o.s.]

Biyombo's biggest limitation is that he sucks at basketball. There is a reason he is the least-passed to player in the NBA, even on the Bobcats (who are not a good offensive team). He has the hands of an obnoxious drunk and the coordination to match. He has flashes of great defensive potential, and if you don't watch Charlotte you could look at the numbers and say "eh, salvagable", but the dude makes Rodman and Ben Wallace look like Steph Curry and Steve Nash on the offensive end.

[LarBrd33]

Biyombo's biggest limitation is that he sucks at basketball.

If 22 year old Biyombo sucks at basketball, so does 21 year old Marcus Smart.   Neither is worth any salt on offense unless you consider Smart's mediocre 3-point shooting or Biyombo's elite FG% around the rim.   Both earn their paychecks on the defensive end.   Saying Biyombo sucks at basketball discounts everything that has been mentioned about him in the previous pages of this thread.  He's a very good rebounder and defender.  He has the capacity to anchor a defense inside. 

According to Synergy, in a small sample size, Biyombo held opponents to just 0.55 points per possession in isolation situations. That placed him in the 95th percentile. His numbers when defending the post were less impressive but still sturdy (55th percentile). Last year, the Hornets allowed 98.7 points per 100 possessions with Biyombo on the floor and 102.0 when he sat?the difference between the second- and 12th-best defenses in the league.

The Hornets? one stretch of real success this season came when starters Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson were out with injuries. During Jefferson?s absence, the Hornets put up an 8-3 record, including wins against the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat, all coming on the strength of their defense. The offense continued to struggle, putting up an Offensive Rating of 101.5 over those eleven games. The defense, however, improved dramatically, stifling opposing offense to the tune of a 95.2 Defensive Rating.

The biggest reason for the Hornets? defensive success over that 11 game stretch was the increased minutes for Bismack Biyombo. While Jefferson has given up a terrible 55.2% field goal percentage to opposing players at the rim this year, Biyombo has held opponents to a 47.8% shooting percentage in the same system. And that difference in rim protection translates to the entire team?s efficiency. When Jefferson is on the court this year, the Hornets defensive rating is 103.9., but when Biyombo is on the court, the Hornets defensive rating plummets to 96.5.

Also, double check Wallace's offensive stats before assuming that he was in any way superior to Biyombo on that end.   I take 22 year old Biyombo's offense over prime 29 year old Wallace's offense.

[D.o.s.]

We have had this exact disagreement in every single Biyombo thread, and I really have no desire to go back and link to the numbers behind his crippling bad offense or the fact that as the Bobcats have tried to improve, rather than tank, his minutes have diminished. Or the fact that he's never going to play 36 minutes per game on a good team so his per 36 is largely irrelevant. It's all still true, and we've gone back and forth about that at least a half dozen times over the time that he's been one of your pet projects for a potential reclaimation.

I will note, however, that "22 year old Biyombo" is a much more charitable description than "four year NBA Professional Biyombo", especially compared to "rookie Marcus Smart."

[LarBrd33]

We have had this exact disagreement in every single Biyombo thread, and I really have no desire to go back and link to the numbers behind his crippling bad offense or the fact that as the Bobcats have tried to improve, rather than tank, his minutes have diminished. Or the fact that he's never going to play 36 minutes per game on a good team so his per 36 is largely irrelevant. It's all still true, and we've gone back and forth about that at least a half dozen times over the time that he's been one of your pet projects for a potential reclaimation.

I will note, however, that "22 year old Biyombo" is a much more charitable description than "four year NBA Professional Biyombo", especially compared to "rookie Marcus Smart."

I think two years of College ball probably does more to develop a player than 17mpg in 14 games in Spain.   Biyombo was as raw as they come when he entered the league.   Smart was supposed to be NBA ready.   Anyways, I'm not saying Smart's future is limited here... I'm saying that calling Biyombo a "garbage basketball player" isn't any different than calling Marcus Smart a garbage basketball player.   They both are terrible offensive players.  They both are really great on the defensive end.  And I don't think either is done developing.

And simply due to the way basketball works, BIyombo's defensive impact as a big man is more than Smart's defensive impact.  It's the same argument I've had with people when talking about nerlens noel vs Smart.   A guard like Smart can be a total pest defensively and give opposing guards hell.   A defensive big can transform an entire defense by himself.  You'll never see a guard as the focal-point of a defense in the NBA.   Bill Russell and Ben Wallace weren't great offensive players.  THey both won championships by anchoring a dominant defense.

[D.o.s.]

So now that we're reduced to quoting bleacher report  (uncited, no less! ), let's look at the stats being presented here.

According to Synergy, in a small sample size, Biyombo held opponents to just 0.55 points per possession in isolation situations. That placed him in the 95th percentile. His numbers when defending the post were less impressive but still sturdy (55th percentile)

Fun fact: Ryan Hollins is the leader in opponents points per possession in isolation situations in a similar sample size. Also ahead of Biyombo: Jameer Nelson, Jae Crowder, Phil Pressey, Aaron Afflalo, and Tyreke Evans. This is using the link cited in that B/R article you didn't link to, by the way:

http://stats.nba.com/playtype/#!/isolation/?dir=1&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile

Last year, the Hornets allowed 98.7 points per 100 possessions with Biyombo on the floor and 102.0 when he sat?the difference between the second- and 12th-best defenses in the league.

Last year Bismack played 19 minutes per game and almost exclusively came off the bench against the opposing second string. For anyone interested in seeing how he worked with the various lineups used by the Hornets this year, you can see everything you'd want to here:
http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/opponent/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612766

The Hornets? one stretch of real success this season came when starters Al Jefferson and Lance Stephenson were out with injuries. During Jefferson?s absence, the Hornets put up an 8-3 record, including wins against the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat, all coming on the strength of their defense. The offense continued to struggle, putting up an Offensive Rating of 101.5 over those eleven games. The defense, however, improved dramatically, stifling opposing offense to the tune of a 95.2 Defensive Rating.

The biggest reason for the Hornets? defensive success over that 11 game stretch was the increased minutes for Bismack Biyombo. While Jefferson has given up a terrible 55.2% field goal percentage to opposing players at the rim this year, Biyombo has held opponents to a 47.8% shooting percentage in the same system. And that difference in rim protection translates to the entire team?s efficiency. When Jefferson is on the court this year, the Hornets defensive rating is 103.9., but when Biyombo is on the court, the Hornets defensive rating plummets to 96.5.

I will agree that Bismack Biyombo is a better defender than Al Jefferson. The same could be said for almost every big in the NBA.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2487399-bismack-biyombo-is-the-most-underrated-free-agent-for-celtics-this-offseason

From that same article:

c. Wording it nicely, Biyombo’s offensive game is a dire work in progress. If he can’t crash the paint off a high screen, suck help in or rise above ground-bound defenders to smash lobs through the rim, then it’s hard to envision his ever playing more than 30 minutes a night, regardless of how good his defense is.

He's athletic enough to become a miniature version of DeAndre Jordan but doesn't come close to matching Jordan's hand-eye coordination.

Opponents don’t have to guard Biyombo. He shot 65.7 percent within three feet of the rim last season and well under 30 percent when beyond an arm’s length away. He turns it over a ton and has terrible hands. More often than not, passing him the ball is a mystical journey with a tragic ending.

[Evantime34]

I like Biymobo, and I think he is a good option for a low risk high reward player who could turn out to be a very good player in the future.

I am not however, in for the idea that he is the solution to what we lack defensively. He is not a player we should sign and count on for production. He is a player that we should sign, develop and will eventually produce for us. For example, I think he would be a great signing this offseason in conjunction with bringing in a guy like Koufos, I just pray he is not a player we count on next year for consistent minutes.

[LarBrd33]

D.o.s., I see this pretty frequently on this forum.   An article will share a variety of stats that paint a picture.  IN this case, several articles all over the internet paint a picture of Biyombo as an elite level rim protector who could be a great fit here.  It uses a variety of stats to give context to that statement.    People then respond by trying to discredit the stat.  Seems like a waste of time.  Instead of using your efforts to discredit the stats, how about you find a defensive stat that you actually respect and tell me how Biyombo fares.   That's way more interesting to me.   In a conversation about Noel, Roy Hobbs conceded that Noel put up some impressive defensive stats, but then Hobbs found some even more obscure defensive stats to suggest Noel still needs work (he probably does).   I thought that was interesting. 

If you disagree that Biyombo can be a needed addition here based on his ability to protect the rim, show me why. 

I personally don't have a defensive stat I lean on.  I'm actually not that in depth as a fan.  I mostly just relay what others are saying.   Seems some people put some faith in defensive rating.  I see that Biyombo had the best defensive rating on his team (99) for two years running.  Oddly he had the best offensive rating on his team as well (115).   The player with the best defensive rating on the Celtics this year (discounting Shavlik and Powell, who only played brief minutes in a couple games) were Rondo (101), Olynyk (103) and Sully (103).  Bit strange that Smart (104) and Bradley (107) weren't better, but maybe the stat favors bigs.  Zeller's defensive rating was 105. 

Biyombo's rating of 99 would have put him Top 10 had he qualified.  Here's the leaders:



Maybe that stat is worthless (it's filled mostly with names I'd expect to see there, but it's odd that Big Al is so high considering all the other stats point out how much better Biyombo was as a defender).   Maybe that stat is broken.  What's a better one?

[SHAQATTACK]

I d be highly disappointed if he is THE best DA can do given the assets available .

The best pickup,he can make in the off season .....

Then it's a failure...IMO


He is an ok player off the bench , but we need seriously better talent level than what he brings to the table.

[PhoSita]

Biyombo's biggest limitation is that he sucks at basketball.

Absolutely true, but he's a fantastic volleyball player.

There are a handful of fantastic volleyball players in the league now who have proven extremely valuable -- Drummond, Chandler, Jordan.

I'm not giving those three enough credit calling them volleyball players -- they're a lot more skilled than Biyombo -- but I think it's fair to think he could be some sort of facsimile of that kind of player.


We've been watching a Finals where two of the most important guys on the floor for much of the game -- Thompson and Bogut -- have very little offensive ability and are simply very good at grabbing rebounds and blocking shots.  Biyombo will likely never be as good as either of those guys, but I think he could certainly have plenty of value in the right situation.