Closer to Contending: Knicks, Lakers, Celtics, Philly?

[celticsclay]

there was a great article a few weeks ago on how rare it is for a team that wins less than 25 games to win 50 games within a 5 year period. I will give a bunch of tps for anyone that can find it.

People remember the celtics the year they formed the big 3 and may remember cleveland this year if they are successful. However, the reality is that teams almost always take several years to build off a 20 win squad and when they do it, it is done through a transcendent trade or free agent signing. The pelicans even with massive improvement last year from Davis and some veteran stars were unable to make the playoffs. The idea the 76ers will improve 20 some wins next year off embiid and what looks like the third or 4th pick is extremely optimistic and doesn't really match the historical performance of NBA teams. Obviously they could sign a free agent... but I do think it is a fair point that Philly would not be a top desitination right now for the chance to sign up with rookies.

[tazzmaniac]

And do you seriously think Sam Hinkie is going to evaluate a cost controlled top 3 pick with less than a season of evaluation and trade him away?

He just traded MCW after a total of 101 games and a Rookie of the Year award.  If Embiid comes in and immediately looks like Olajuwon 2.0, no one would trade that.  But if he comes in and looks like a guy who played less than 30 college games and hasn't been in a competitive game for a year and a half, who's to say what Hinkie would do?

Mike

If MCW was still on the Sixers, you'd knock him for being horribly inefficient and say he got the ROY because it was a weak rookie class.  There are plenty of PGs around that could replace MCW.  Hinkie was smart to trade him when he got a very good offer.  If Ainge had traded KO or Sully for the Lakers 1st, I expect most folks would have given it a good grade. 

[tazzmaniac]

TBH, I think it goes like this:
1. Boston
2. NY
3. LA
4. Philly

Why:
Boston - best GM of the bunch, Stevens showing he's a very good coach, decent young assets although none I'd consider a cornerstone, a boatload of picks to use or trade (those Brooklyn picks are looking better every day), a large TPE to use on a player making good money and a sizable chunk of cap space coming up.  Add in Danny's demonstrated history of willing to make a big move to improve the team, I have to give the nod to the C's here.

NY has Melo ready to come back next year, a pick likely to be top 3 barring a major surprise in the draft, a decent amount of cap space and Phil Jackson to act as a lure for FA's impressed by his resume.

LA has Kobe ready to come back next year (he's unlikely to be as productive as Melo at this stage but he has a much stronger competitive mentality), a pick likely to be top 5 barring a major surprise in the draft, a decent amount of cap space and the lure of LaLa land for FAs impressed by that. 

Philly has a 2nd-year rookie that's improving and 2 rookies that aren't playing for them but could be very good.  they own picks will likely be high in the lottery for a few more years because they're expected to stink, NOT IMPROVE.  They'll get LA's pick probably next when LA has had an opportunity to improve their team and the pick will likely be late lottery if not out of the lottery.  The biggest drawback for Philly is that by the time they're young players start to develop some real skills, they'll be ready for restricted free agency and have a strong incentive to play for their QO and become an unrestricted free agent just to get out of that losing atmosphere while still getting their first big contract.  Granted this is yet to happen but I strongly believe they will bleed young talent that wants to go to a winning environment.

I understand that expectation from the general populous but it's not in line with Philly's intentions at all. They'll be much more stable next year and have more depth. They'll be nipping at the heels of the playoffs if not securely in them in 16-17 unless the NBA loses a season. They've said from the beginning they want to be in serious contention within 5 years, this nonsense about Hinkie giving away good players for nothing to tank forever is a baseless narrative.

That puts the as a playoff team right as Noel enters RFA, and I don't think they're let him go anywhere he's right up there with Gobert as a defensive prospect. Plus they'll have the cap room to fill out the wings with 3&D guys if they don't like what they see in the draft.

I'd put Boston above them but the C's still need rim protection and a 2nd option on offense for Thomas.

They won't even be close to sniffing the playoffs next season. More than likely they'll be the worst in the East with NY getting Melo back and FAs and pretty much everyone but Brooklyn getting better.

They'll be a 30 win team next year unless injuries really derail them, which to me is Embiid/Noel missing a combined 50 games. If they do anything in FA and their young guys improve more than expected maybe a 32-35 win team. For all the talk about how great Boston is at developing their young guys I've yet to see any of them make the jump Noel has. James Young has barely played, and has as long to go as anybody Philly's drafted. Smart is a pretty mediocre offensive player, comparable offensively to a guy the same age we drafted with a pick in the 30s so I'm not really seeing where this "we're awesome at developing guys" swag is coming from.

Boston is clearly better now, and I trust Ainge to be decisive when an opportunity presents itself to grab a star but there is a very real risk of a 45 win holding pattern while you guys pray for a Nets implosion(likely if they keep Billy King). If that's the course you have to take we're talking a very long rebuild.

had a good size rebuttal to this but lost it when I hit the wrong key by accident.  I don't feel like retyping it all so I'll condense it.

all you're continuing to do is spew your love for Philly and trying to support it with baseless speculation.

bottom line:
Hinkie's intentions don't mean squat.  if the players get sick of losing and the culture of losing (and I have little doubt some will) they will play out their rookie contract, sign for just the QO as an RFA and hit the market the following year as a UFA to get out of there.  Not saying they'll lose all of those young players like this but I believe it will happen enough to expose the folly of Philly's full-tank-until-drafting-a-stud philosophy. 

Also, there roster is incredibly unbalanced/lackin in terms of their top prospects.  they've got 3, 2 of which aren't playing this year and the other is a second-year rookie.  no way those 3, assuming Saric were to come over which he'd be foolish to do now, would get that team in the playoffs no matter who they added with their pick this year.  don't forget, they have to fill the rest of that roster with guys who can actually play if the intention is to do more than stink the joint up.  what talented vet would actually choose to join that disaster unless they're being obscenely overpaid?  none, and even then I still doubt there'd be enough money to lure someone AND with the playoffs a distant thought, no way Hinkie empties his piggy bank to try to sign a FA of any quality at this point.

Philly may be better next year but barely.  you're missing the obvious point that other teams doing crappy this year will all figure to be better next year as well.  who is Philly going to pass in the standings realistically?  no one I can see.

Just because a team is losing a lot doesn't mean they have a losing culture.  The Sixers are around 12th best in defensive efficiency.  They're doing that with a roster that has limited talent and lots of player turnover.  If there was a losing culture mindset, the Sixers would be at the bottom of the league in defense.  The reason why they are losing is because they are by far the worst offensive team.  If they just improve their offense up to the Knicks 2nd worst in the league level, the Sixers net rating would be better than 7 teams. 

Very few significant restricted free agents take their qualifying offer.  Monroe did but that was because he didn't like Detroit's offer.  If the Sixers offer good contracts, their RFAs will stay.  I don't think Hinkie will spend much on mediocre free agents just to get a few more wins.  However if a star he likes becomes available via free agency or trade, the piggy bank will definitely be emptied.  I don't think that will happen.  So next season I expect the Sixers to field a young roster with few veterans and win maybe 25 games.  The following season is when I think they'll push for the playoffs.     

[LarBrd33]

A "winning culture" is super overrated.  All it takes is an elite player or two to turn a "losing culture" into a winning team.  It's not like you can hover around .500 and springboard off that success into being a champion.   Celtics went from a bottomfeeder to contender immediately after adding KG.  Look at the Cavs right now.  If Philly adds the right talent, they'll improve dramatically.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

TBH, I think it goes like this:
1. Boston
2. NY
3. LA
4. Philly

Why:
Boston - best GM of the bunch, Stevens showing he's a very good coach, decent young assets although none I'd consider a cornerstone, a boatload of picks to use or trade (those Brooklyn picks are looking better every day), a large TPE to use on a player making good money and a sizable chunk of cap space coming up.  Add in Danny's demonstrated history of willing to make a big move to improve the team, I have to give the nod to the C's here.

NY has Melo ready to come back next year, a pick likely to be top 3 barring a major surprise in the draft, a decent amount of cap space and Phil Jackson to act as a lure for FA's impressed by his resume.

LA has Kobe ready to come back next year (he's unlikely to be as productive as Melo at this stage but he has a much stronger competitive mentality), a pick likely to be top 5 barring a major surprise in the draft, a decent amount of cap space and the lure of LaLa land for FAs impressed by that. 

Philly has a 2nd-year rookie that's improving and 2 rookies that aren't playing for them but could be very good.  they own picks will likely be high in the lottery for a few more years because they're expected to stink, NOT IMPROVE.  They'll get LA's pick probably next when LA has had an opportunity to improve their team and the pick will likely be late lottery if not out of the lottery.  The biggest drawback for Philly is that by the time they're young players start to develop some real skills, they'll be ready for restricted free agency and have a strong incentive to play for their QO and become an unrestricted free agent just to get out of that losing atmosphere while still getting their first big contract.  Granted this is yet to happen but I strongly believe they will bleed young talent that wants to go to a winning environment.

I understand that expectation from the general populous but it's not in line with Philly's intentions at all. They'll be much more stable next year and have more depth. They'll be nipping at the heels of the playoffs if not securely in them in 16-17 unless the NBA loses a season. They've said from the beginning they want to be in serious contention within 5 years, this nonsense about Hinkie giving away good players for nothing to tank forever is a baseless narrative.

That puts the as a playoff team right as Noel enters RFA, and I don't think they're let him go anywhere he's right up there with Gobert as a defensive prospect. Plus they'll have the cap room to fill out the wings with 3&D guys if they don't like what they see in the draft.

I'd put Boston above them but the C's still need rim protection and a 2nd option on offense for Thomas.

They won't even be close to sniffing the playoffs next season. More than likely they'll be the worst in the East with NY getting Melo back and FAs and pretty much everyone but Brooklyn getting better.

They'll be a 30 win team next year unless injuries really derail them, which to me is Embiid/Noel missing a combined 50 games. If they do anything in FA and their young guys improve more than expected maybe a 32-35 win team. For all the talk about how great Boston is at developing their young guys I've yet to see any of them make the jump Noel has. James Young has barely played, and has as long to go as anybody Philly's drafted. Smart is a pretty mediocre offensive player, comparable offensively to a guy the same age we drafted with a pick in the 30s so I'm not really seeing where this "we're awesome at developing guys" swag is coming from.

Boston is clearly better now, and I trust Ainge to be decisive when an opportunity presents itself to grab a star but there is a very real risk of a 45 win holding pattern while you guys pray for a Nets implosion(likely if they keep Billy King). If that's the course you have to take we're talking a very long rebuild.

had a good size rebuttal to this but lost it when I hit the wrong key by accident.  I don't feel like retyping it all so I'll condense it.

all you're continuing to do is spew your love for Philly and trying to support it with baseless speculation.

bottom line:
Hinkie's intentions don't mean squat.  if the players get sick of losing and the culture of losing (and I have little doubt some will) they will play out their rookie contract, sign for just the QO as an RFA and hit the market the following year as a UFA to get out of there.  Not saying they'll lose all of those young players like this but I believe it will happen enough to expose the folly of Philly's full-tank-until-drafting-a-stud philosophy. 

Also, there roster is incredibly unbalanced/lackin in terms of their top prospects.  they've got 3, 2 of which aren't playing this year and the other is a second-year rookie.  no way those 3, assuming Saric were to come over which he'd be foolish to do now, would get that team in the playoffs no matter who they added with their pick this year.  don't forget, they have to fill the rest of that roster with guys who can actually play if the intention is to do more than stink the joint up.  what talented vet would actually choose to join that disaster unless they're being obscenely overpaid?  none, and even then I still doubt there'd be enough money to lure someone AND with the playoffs a distant thought, no way Hinkie empties his piggy bank to try to sign a FA of any quality at this point.

Philly may be better next year but barely.  you're missing the obvious point that other teams doing crappy this year will all figure to be better next year as well.  who is Philly going to pass in the standings realistically?  no one I can see.

The Nets are a possibility. Possibly the Magic if they continue to receive no coaching. Detroit is a possibility as well. And every year there is a terrible team nobody saw coming.

its unbalanced if you ignore everyone on their roster I suppose. Which given your affinity for passing a secondhand opinion of the team as fact makes sense I guess.

Covington and Grant are legit rotation players. Both are solid 3 pt shooters who are about 6'8 and can play 3/4. They're a PG away from a 30 win 8 man rotation. They're already a decent defensive team, and young players tend to get better as they age. They're significantly better post all-star break, and have been way less of an offensive dumpster fire since MCW left.

But yes feel free to dismissively proclaim Hinkie will probably trade everybody for 2nd rd picks har har har. The "worst" trade he ever made was getting a back up PG and a 2nd round pick for a backup wing. The humanity.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

there was a great article a few weeks ago on how rare it is for a team that wins less than 25 games to win 50 games within a 5 year period. I will give a bunch of tps for anyone that can find it.

People remember the celtics the year they formed the big 3 and may remember cleveland this year if they are successful. However, the reality is that teams almost always take several years to build off a 20 win squad and when they do it, it is done through a transcendent trade or free agent signing. The pelicans even with massive improvement last year from Davis and some veteran stars were unable to make the playoffs. The idea the 76ers will improve 20 some wins next year off embiid and what looks like the third or 4th pick is extremely optimistic and doesn't really match the historical performance of NBA teams. Obviously they could sign a free agent... but I do think it is a fair point that Philly would not be a top desitination right now for the chance to sign up with rookies.

They're not going to win 20 more games. That'd be nuts, they'll probably be a ~30 win team that continues to outperform net ratings due to the variance of their 3 pt shooting.

[LHR]

Still can't get over how LarBrd33 read my mind and started this topic because I couldn't wait to ask it to Ian Thomsen on this week's show (and also am releasing a column on it, partly, on the 22nd - will go much more into detail then as I spoke to some people about it.)  Here's my discussion with Ian regarding it during the wee hours of this morning:

http://bit.ly/1FiXUjN

[mr. dee]

A "winning culture" is super overrated.  All it takes is an elite player or two to turn a "losing culture" into a winning team.  It's not like you can hover around .500 and springboard off that success into being a champion.   Celtics went from a bottomfeeder to contender immediately after adding KG.  Look at the Cavs right now.  If Philly adds the right talent, they'll improve dramatically.

And how many years we have to wait before those "elite prospects" comes out? Last year, I remember you saying that 2014 draft will have 5-10 superstar potentials. We picked #6 in Marcus Smart and suddenly he's now a "defensive role player". We won't land top 5 since there are better tanker than us. So would you rather trade Sully, KO and Smart for 2nd rounders? That's no different from Pitino's mentality.

Tanking is not the only path to contention. How about collecting assets and strike for an opportunity to land an "Elite Superstar" like Danny has done with KG? If Al Jeffersons, Delonte Wests and Gerald Greens of the world are what would it takes to land KG-like talent, then tanking shouldn't be necessary.

Drafting in the mid teens isn't that bad either. We can fool other GMs if we can develop Sully, KO and Smart. Or we can just simply use them as championship pieces. And history proves that you can find a "superstar" in the teens pick.

[LHR]

A "winning culture" is super overrated.  All it takes is an elite player or two to turn a "losing culture" into a winning team.  It's not like you can hover around .500 and springboard off that success into being a champion.   Celtics went from a bottomfeeder to contender immediately after adding KG.  Look at the Cavs right now.  If Philly adds the right talent, they'll improve dramatically.

And how many years we have to wait before those "elite prospects" comes out? Last year, I remember you saying that 2014 draft will have 5-10 superstar potentials. We picked #6 in Marcus Smart and suddenly he's now a "defensive role player". We won't land top 5 since there are better tanker than us. So would you rather trade Sully, KO and Smart for 2nd rounders? That's no different from Pitino's mentality.

Tanking is not the only path to contention. How about collecting assets and strike for an opportunity to land an "Elite Superstar" like Danny has done with KG? If Al Jeffersons, Delonte Wests and Gerald Greens of the world are what would it takes to land KG-like talent, then tanking shouldn't be necessary.

Drafting in the mid teens isn't that bad either. We can fool other GMs if we can develop Sully, KO and Smart. Or we can just simply use them as championship pieces. And history proves that you can find a "superstar" in the teens pick.

Great work, mr. dee.

[incoherent]

How about the 20 picks in the next three years.

Those have to be worth something.