With the Heat getting Dragic and the Pistons getting Jackson+Prince, I can't see us coming close to the playoffs now. Combining that we've got a rough stretch coming up with 7 games against playoff teams without Sullinger and possibly Olynyk and we could be looking at losing all 7 games.
We play the
-Raptors twice
-The Cavs twice
-The Bucks twice
-Pistons once
Some of these games would be winnable with Sullinger, but I have strong doubts on our chances without him.
I think the trade deadline definitely hurt our playoff chances considering the Heat and Pistons got so much better. (And arguably the Nets too).
If Sully misses 6 or 7 games it sure will help our draft position. I'm not sure when Olynyk is back but having Sully and Olynyk out for another 5 games will certainly help the draft cause.
I'd like to see James Young get more minutes and I'd like to see Smart get 30 minutes + consistently.
To get the best chance at a top 8 pick, we need:
*Paul George to come back in March like he is hoping he will.
*Kemba Walker to return to the Hornets in March like he's hoping he will.
*The Kings to start winning a few games with Coach Karl
*Thad Young to provide some spark for the Nets. I think this is very possible because he'll be the 4th option on this squad and find himself getting a lot of easy buckets. His energy in transition will be great for them.
Yes. The schedule and the health of Sully & KO are the key factors now.
Our schedule since mid December has been much lighter than the start of the season and we've predictably, gotten more wins out of it -- but our SRS ranking has stayed pretty much the same -- 19th overall, 8th in the East. That's because it's looking at our wins against weaker teams now with about the same love as our close losses to stronger teams earlier in the season. So, given that most of the rest of the schedule is overall neutral, we would seemingly be on course for contending for the 8th seed. We have a somewhat lighter stretch in these first 5 games after the break and then it gets hard for long stretch, as you point out. Then the remainder of the schedule is slightly on the easier side.
BUT ... SRS doesn't factor in the latest, sudden changes to the teams. Miami, Brooklyn and Detroit all made significant improvements today.
And while on one hand, we made a significant positive improvement to our pick&roll offense by acquiring Thomas for basically nothing, on the other it looks like we will be without Sully for several weeks and possible the rest of this season, if they decide to shut him down. Don't laugh - there is a serious risk of stress fracture and stress fractures in the feet of big men are not something the team wants to be casual about.
And Olynyk's return is also up in the air. He won't be back until at least Sunday and he looked doubtful about that when asked about it today. Ankles can be real slow to heal.
If we have to go the rest of the way, missing both Sully and Olynyk for significant stretches, I think that would make it really, really hard to steal that 8th playoff spot, especially given that there are literally 4 or 5 other teams fighting for that spot - and several of them should be notably improved after the break.