#DeflateGate (Court of Appeals Reinstates Suspension)

[Moranis]

I've often found that when a judge is particularly hard on one side, the judge is doing so because that is the side the judge thinks need to be pushed hard on to reach a settlement.  All judges want all cases settled as no judge every really wants to decide the fate of two entities/people.  It is of course their job, but it is always better when the two sides settle because both sides can at least live with the result. 

I've also found that isn't a very good way to determine what a judge will ultimately do.  Sure sometimes a judge rules like you would think, but just as often the judge sides with the party he was being particularly hard on.  Makes appeals more difficult since the losing side got everything it wanted. 

[footey]

... which is about as useful as the random guy off the streets educated guesswork.

I practice in front of the same group of judges daily, against the same attorneys. I don't think any of us can guess definitively what a judge will do in a complicated case.

Well, not guessing definitively is not the same as being as useful as the random guy off the street. Some guesses are better than others.

Yes, and if the source had provided some context, maybe his opinion would have some value.  The "he absolutely will vacate the suspension" is sheer nonsense, though.  I doubt even his law clerks can make a statement like that with any degree of confidence at this stage. 

If it was an easy case, sure.  If it was an ideological case, sure.  In an arbitration dispute where the central question is whether the arbitrator should be deferred to?  The guy on the street probably has as much insight, at least in terms of what the judge "absolutely" will do.

Roy, Were you surprised by the degree to which the judge focused on the merits of the NFL's claim against Brady?  I was. I thought the focus was going to be on due process related stuff.

[Moranis]

... which is about as useful as the random guy off the streets educated guesswork.

I practice in front of the same group of judges daily, against the same attorneys. I don't think any of us can guess definitively what a judge will do in a complicated case.

Well, not guessing definitively is not the same as being as useful as the random guy off the street. Some guesses are better than others.

Yes, and if the source had provided some context, maybe his opinion would have some value.  The "he absolutely will vacate the suspension" is sheer nonsense, though.  I doubt even his law clerks can make a statement like that with any degree of confidence at this stage. 

If it was an easy case, sure.  If it was an ideological case, sure.  In an arbitration dispute where the central question is whether the arbitrator should be deferred to?  The guy on the street probably has as much insight, at least in terms of what the judge "absolutely" will do.

Roy, Were you surprised by the degree to which the judge focused on the merits of the NFL's claim against Brady?  I was. I thought the focus was going to be on due process related stuff.

He did that to push settlement.

[Jon]

The judge is really ripping into the NFL. This is looking more and more like Brady will be vacated or at worst, get one game. 

Hopefully the owners come to their senses and can Goodell. And their financial success is not a reason to keep Goodell around. A monkey could make money for the owners given the popularity of football in America.

And the monkey would probably do better job with discipline.

[Donoghus]

Seems like more & more of the national media is coming around to how inept the NFL league office looks in this case.

Just following Stephen Berman's blow by blow account of today's proceedings on Twitter, it certainly sounded like he was extremely critical of NFL procedure here.

A lot of people have been chiming in on this particular statement by Berman via @PPVSRB regarding Pash;

Stephen Brown ?@PPVSRB  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Berman: "I believe some arbitration awards have been vacated" because a witness was not allowed to be called without explanation.

[D.o.s.]

There's also been rumblings that Brady will accept guilt (and the suspension, although it would probably be reduced) if it's made explicit that his suspension was for disobeying the NFL, rather than the findings of the Wells Report.

The NFL, so far, isn't going for it.

[Donoghus]

There's also been rumblings that Brady will accept guilt (and the suspension, although it would probably be reduced) if it's made explicit that his suspension was for disobeying the NFL, rather than the findings of the Wells Report.

The NFL, so far, isn't going for it.

I saw the Schefty report this mornign.  Couldn't figure out who leaked that out there although hunch says the league.  Jeff Howe & Rapoport came out in the past hour or so & basically shot that down that saying sources were telling them that Brady isn't willing to accept any suspension in a settlement.

[D.o.s.]

Yeah that's a bit of a weird one since, on the face of it, it makes no sense as a stance in principle and makes even less sense to leak -- unless you believe that Brady is obsessed with the idea that he'll become the NFL's version of Barry Bonds if he cops to guilt in exchange for a shortened suspension, which would jive nicely with the denials issued later in the day, since that's hardly a sentiment that can be expressed publicly.

No idea if that has any factual bearing on that, it's just the path that makes the most sense to me.

[PhoSita]

A one or two game suspension based on lack of cooperation, at this point, seems like it'd be an outstanding resolution for the NFL.  The judge has been openly skeptical of the NFL's positions from the beginning.

I have to imagine Brady is actually pushing for reduction of the punishment to a heavy fine and a public admission of guilt re: lack of cooperation and nothing else.  The NFL then goes ahead and leaks this story about Brady accepting a suspension on the same ground, hoping to incite media pressure for Brady to accept a substantial reduction in his suspension.

My guess -- Brady holds fast unless the NFL drops the suspension entirely.  He'll take his chances with the judge otherwise.

[Evantime34]

It's interesting to think that the NFL filed to have this case heard in New York court because they expected a more sympathetic judge. If Berman is a more sympathetic judge, I am curious what would have happened if the case was in Minnesota (where the player's union wanted it).

Would the Minnesota judge have immediately vacated the suspension and made the NFL give back the draft picks and the fine?

[KeepRondo]

I've often found that when a judge is particularly hard on one side, the judge is doing so because that is the side the judge thinks need to be pushed hard on to reach a settlement.  All judges want all cases settled as no judge every really wants to decide the fate of two entities/people.  It is of course their job, but it is always better when the two sides settle because both sides can at least live with the result. 

I've also found that isn't a very good way to determine what a judge will ultimately do.  Sure sometimes a judge rules like you would think, but just as often the judge sides with the party he was being particularly hard on.  Makes appeals more difficult since the losing side got everything it wanted.

Good point. I was also thinking he may disagree with how the NFL conducted their case against Brady but he might not be able to legally do much except voice his disagreement with them.

[footey]

guys like polian on espn keep saying that it is whether or not the process was followed properly, and that it is unlikely for the NFL to be overturned on that narrow basis. While I understand that courts are very deferential to arbitration awards, for good reason, I see a lot of holes in the NFL following the process properly. Particularly punishing Brady for a conduct violation that is not spelled out in the CBA.  It is my understanding that the CBA sets out discipline for drug test violations, so for the league to make this analogy does not hold up logically. 

I still can't believe it has come to this.  What a waste of time.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

guys like polian on espn keep saying that it is whether or not the process was followed properly, and that it is unlikely for the NFL to be overturned on that narrow basis. While I understand that courts are very deferential to arbitration awards, for good reason, I see a lot of holes in the NFL following the process properly. Particularly punishing Brady for a conduct violation that is not spelled out in the CBA.  It is my understanding that the CBA sets out discipline for drug test violations, so for the league to make this analogy does not hold up logically. 

I still can't believe it has come to this.  What a waste of time.

It's great that ESPN relies so much on a former Colts executive for an unbiased assessment of the Patriots. 

[Neurotic Guy]

It's interesting to think that the NFL filed to have this case heard in New York court because they expected a more sympathetic judge. If Berman is a more sympathetic judge, I am curious what would have happened if the case was in Minnesota (where the player's union wanted it).

Would the Minnesota judge have immediately vacated the suspension and made the NFL give back the draft picks and the fine?

I've heard numerous times that the judge has no say with regard to the draft picks.  I wonder if anyone can provide the actual legal reason for why the judge can't rule that the NFL's processes and conclusions are faulty and that all penalites that stemmed from faulty processes and conclusions should be voided.   I am sure the reason rests in the actual claim being addressed in the case, but as a non-lawyer I don't understand a judge's limitations.    Lawyers please explain -- thanks.

[D.o.s.]

Because the suit is an appeal filed by the NFLPA in regard to Brady's four-game suspension, rather than a lawsuit from the Patriots in regards to the punishment as a whole.


disclosure: not a lawyer, and the above is my best guess as someone who is not.