[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.
Just to continue on from my post above ...
Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.
A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.
Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.
I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.
Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic... How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?
In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan. Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.
Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.
Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.
It seems like your argument is based mainly on WS/48, which is probably dependent on how much players shoot/score much like PER is. And you're probably right that Rondo's style of play isn't suitable for a franchise player on your typical nba club. but it does seem suited to strong postseason play. It's true that Rondo's somewhat less effective without good scorers around him than better scoring star players are (duh) but he's also better at maximizing the talents of others.
Thanks for the response, BBallTim, I've been interested to see what you think of this.
It does seem like stats like WS/48 favors scorers/shooters, much like PER. I have to say I agree with the bias WS/48 and other advanced stats exhibit towards scorers as they assume players who aren't of that ilk have to be exceptional at other offensive skills in order to be as impactful as a dominant scorer. After all, as we both agree, Rondo's style of play doesn't seem to be suitable for the typical franchise player.
I would agree that it is suitable for postseason play, but assuming they make the postseason, that is probably because they have at least one really good scorer on the team.
Check out some other stats (Rondo-led Cs vs. other single-star-led teams):
Pau Gasol-led '04-05 Memphis Grizzlies:
http://www.82games.com/0405MEM.HTMThese Grizzlies won 45 games and made the playoffs (bounced in the first round). Their leading scorer and shot-blocker was Pau Gasol, who was also second-best on the team as a rebounder. With Gasol on the floor, the Grizzlies were a net +2.8, good for fifth on the team. Gasol was third in both offensive, defensive and total win shares. Their second best player was Mike Miller, probably no better than Jeff Green this season. They also had three other double-digit PPG players, to bring it to a total of five double-digit PPG players. The Cs have four double-digit PPG players, none of whom are Rajon Rondo.
Michael Redd-led '07-08 Milwaukee Bucks:
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708MIL.HTMThese Bucks were pitiful, winning 26 games and of course missing the playoffs. Their leading scorer was Michael Redd, who also posted the third-best assist average and averaged around 36% from behind the arc while shooting a whopping five threes per game. With Redd on the floor, the Bucks were a net +.80; Redd also outperformed his opponent by a net +7.1. Redd led the Bucks by far in offensive win shares, though only contributed a measly 0.2 defensive win shares. This Bucks team had four other double-digit scorers (including Desmond Mason, who averaged 9.7 per game), a potent shot-blocker (Bogut), and a pretty good backup guard in Ramon Sessions (8p/7.5a/3.4r).
Paul Pierce-led '05-06 Boston Celtics:
http://www.82games.com/0506/0506BOS.HTMThese Celtics were meh, winning 33 games and missing the playoffs. Their leading scorer and assist-giver was Paul Pierce, who was also the team's second-leading rebounder. With Pierce on the floor, the Cs were a net +2.6. Pierce also outperformed his opponent by an impressive net +11.8. He also led the team in defensive (and obviously offensive) win shares, though that's not as impressive a feat as it sounds. This Cs team had four other double-digit scorers, a pretty good shot-blocker in Perk, and no major facilitators outside of Pierce. Their starting PG, D. West, averaged less than five dimes a game. Man, it's crazy how underrated Pierce was for the longest time.
Rajon Rondo-led '14-15 Boston Celtics:
http://www.82games.com/1415/1415BOS.HTMThese Cs are lotto-bound, having lost 14 of their first 21 games. Rondo is the team's leading assist-giver by far (also leading the league) and second-leading rebounder. He is tied for the team's eighth-leading scorer. His overall efficiency has been disappointing thus far (39.5%). With Rondo on the floor, the Cs are a net -0.4. Rondo has also been outperformed by his opponent by a net -1.8. It must be noted that the Cs have played a fair amount of really good PGs thus far, which may explain this concerning stat. However, Rondo has also contributed -0.2 offensive win shares thus far, with his relieving 0.8 total defensive win shares buoying his total win shares at 0.5. Rondo is last on the team in offensive win shares, but is leading the team in defensive win shares. One interesting nugget: one particular player, Tyler Zeller, seems to enjoy playing with Rondo. He has already tied his total offensive win shares from last season.
edit: Do Win Shares accurately compensate for the elevated OWS averages of players who play with Rondo?
Interpret this as you will. Keep in mind the small sample size.
Topic: Rondo's ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars (Read 13215 times)