rondo is so studied and criticised

[Fafnir]

Rondo used to be great.
Now he is not.
Everybody gets old.

Yeah but no one gets old at 28.

The do if they have had a knee injury.
Rondo is a poor shooter and a poor defender.
The team is a minus 3 with Rondo on the floor.
He passes and rebounds well.

Where the heck is this -3 coming from. The link you provided didn't have it, nor do I see it on basketball reference. You don't even say what the minus means. If your'e talking raw +/- I don't think that's accurate, and even if it is raw +/- is pretty meaningless.

[Celtics18]

Every NBA champion I can think of in my life time has featured top players 28 years of age or older.

Every NBA champion I can think of has featured at least one player that's been traded at least once, too.

Every NBA champion I can think of in my lifetime has featured a player with a sneaker endorsement.

So on, so forth. Based on everything we know about basketball, the average NBA player is at his peak at 25-27, with some wiggle room. That's also true for NBA superstars, but in their case they're so good that they're still mopping the floor with the rest of the league. Post-retirement Jordan is a pretty good example of that, but in case you'd like to read more:

http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2aa0r2/study_at_what_age_an_nba_player_reaches_his_peak/

edit: I should add that there's an argument to be made in favor of the mental gains that a player experiences throughout his NBA career, but that's largely a 'common sense,' confirmation- and hindsight-bias fueled observation.

Thanks for posting the links, but I've read them all before.   Anyway, it remains to be seen how rapid Rajon Rondo's "decline" will be, and how many good years he has left in him.

I remain optimistic--and I don't think unrealistically so--that he can continue to play some very good ball through his mid-thirties. 

[Celtics18]

Rondo used to be great.
Now he is not.
Everybody gets old.

Yeah but no one gets old at 28.

The do if they have had a knee injury.
Rondo is a poor shooter and a poor defender and his fourth quarter play is terrible.
The team is a minus 3 with Rondo on the floor.
He passes and rebounds well, however.

I love how you throw in "he passes and rebounds well" as an afterthought. 

Wouldn't it be more accuse to say; he passes and rebounds at historically great levels. 

[D.o.s.]

Every NBA champion I can think of in my life time has featured top players 28 years of age or older.

Every NBA champion I can think of has featured at least one player that's been traded at least once, too.

Every NBA champion I can think of in my lifetime has featured a player with a sneaker endorsement.

So on, so forth. Based on everything we know about basketball, the average NBA player is at his peak at 25-27, with some wiggle room. That's also true for NBA superstars, but in their case they're so good that they're still mopping the floor with the rest of the league. Post-retirement Jordan is a pretty good example of that, but in case you'd like to read more:

http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2aa0r2/study_at_what_age_an_nba_player_reaches_his_peak/

edit: I should add that there's an argument to be made in favor of the mental gains that a player experiences throughout his NBA career, but that's largely a 'common sense,' confirmation- and hindsight-bias fueled observation.

Thanks for posting the links, but I've read them all before.   Anyway, it remains to be seen how rapid Rajon Rondo's "decline" will be, and how many good years he has left in him.

I remain optimistic--and I don't think unrealistically so--that he can continue to play some very good ball through his mid-thirties. 

Oh, I definitely agree. I think we can win a championship with Rondo at the point in the next 4-5 years without desperately needing an upgrade at the point guard spot.


Just pointing out that expecting him to be any better than he has been historically is a little unrealistic at this point in his career.

[Celtics18]

Every NBA champion I can think of in my life time has featured top players 28 years of age or older.

Every NBA champion I can think of has featured at least one player that's been traded at least once, too.

Every NBA champion I can think of in my lifetime has featured a player with a sneaker endorsement.

So on, so forth. Based on everything we know about basketball, the average NBA player is at his peak at 25-27, with some wiggle room. That's also true for NBA superstars, but in their case they're so good that they're still mopping the floor with the rest of the league. Post-retirement Jordan is a pretty good example of that, but in case you'd like to read more:

http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2aa0r2/study_at_what_age_an_nba_player_reaches_his_peak/

edit: I should add that there's an argument to be made in favor of the mental gains that a player experiences throughout his NBA career, but that's largely a 'common sense,' confirmation- and hindsight-bias fueled observation.

Thanks for posting the links, but I've read them all before.   Anyway, it remains to be seen how rapid Rajon Rondo's "decline" will be, and how many good years he has left in him.

I remain optimistic--and I don't think unrealistically so--that he can continue to play some very good ball through his mid-thirties. 

Oh, I definitely agree. I think we can win a championship with Rondo at the point in the next 4-5 years without desperately needing an upgrade at the point guard spot.


Just pointing out that expecting him to be any better than he has been historically is a little unrealistic at this point in his career.

I'm not expecting him to be better statistically over the course of the next 4 or 5 years than he's been over the course of his career to date.

I don't think you'd find a lot of people who are. 

[D.o.s.]

Rondo used to be great.
Now he is not.
Everybody gets old.

Yeah but no one gets old at 28.

The do if they have had a knee injury.
Rondo is a poor shooter and a poor defender.
The team is a minus 3 with Rondo on the floor.
He passes and rebounds well.

Where the heck is this -3 coming from. The link you provided didn't have it, nor do I see it on basketball reference. You don't even say what the minus means. If your'e talking raw +/- I don't think that's accurate, and even if it is raw +/- is pretty meaningless.

Looks like your facts are getting the silent treatment, Faf.

[Roy H.]

Rondo used to be great.
Now he is not.
Everybody gets old.

Yeah but no one gets old at 28.

The do if they have had a knee injury.
Rondo is a poor shooter and a poor defender.
The team is a minus 3 with Rondo on the floor.
He passes and rebounds well.

Where the heck is this -3 coming from. The link you provided didn't have it, nor do I see it on basketball reference. You don't even say what the minus means. If your'e talking raw +/- I don't think that's accurate, and even if it is raw +/- is pretty meaningless.

According to 82games.com (which has info as of 12/4), the Celtics are a collective -4.7 points/100 possessions with Rondo in the game, and -4.0 with him not playing.  So, in theory, they're 0.6 - 0.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench.

No idea with where the -3 comes from, and my guess is that the reason for the slight point differential is due to statistical noise and garbage time.  The idea that we'd be better with Pressey or whoever in the game ahead of Rondo seems off to me.

[Vermont Green]

I think Rondo is healthy and has as much of his peak athleticism at 28 as you would expect of any professional athlete.  He probably has lost some of his reckless abandon and now plays a more mature game but I think he is still pretty much the same guy he has always been.  I think a good barometer is his rebounding.  He is averaging more Rebs than ever in his career.  Doesn't seem like that would be the case if he had lost all that much of his giddy-up.

The opposing defenses are focusing on stopping him more now so he is simply not going to get to the hoop as easily.  This combined with the fact that he may be subconsciously a little less reckless in going to the hoop due to the injury and also just being a little older in general.  The coach/team may also be asking him not to go crazy because they want him healthy for the whole year.

I think Roy H said it well.  Rondo is a polarizing player because he has such extreme abilities and extreme weaknesses.  He is very unique in that regard.  He has also been in the discussion of league MVP and max contracts so he is held to a pretty high (perhaps unfair) standard.

I think one of Rondo's weakness (and strengths at the same time) is that he is psychologically fickle.  He can be really on or really off.  Playoffs, big games; really on.  Miss some free throws, get a shot blocked when going to the hoop; things like that seem to mess with his head.  I know I am way outside my expertise to be trying to be trying to analyze Rondo's psyche but I think this contributes to Rondo's highs and lows.

[Boris Badenov]

The opposing defenses are focusing on stopping him more now so he is simply not going to get to the hoop as easily.  This combined with the fact that he may be subconsciously a little less reckless in going to the hoop due to the injury and also just being a little older in general.  The coach/team may also be asking him not to go crazy because they want him healthy for the whole year.

I think Roy H said it well.  Rondo is a polarizing player because he has such extreme abilities and extreme weaknesses.  He is very unique in that regard.  He has also been in the discussion of league MVP and max contracts so he is held to a pretty high (perhaps unfair) standard.

Agree with Roy. I posted something the other day along the lines of Rondo being either first or last in most major categories among PGs - e.g., first in REB and AST, last in FG% and FT%. He's just a peculiar player and therefore not easily comparable to others., So, opinions will be diverse.

On the FGs-at-the-rim point, I would guess that some of it has to do with age (many players take it to the hole less often as they age). But another factor might be that Rondo has fewer offensive threats around him, so his drive-and-dish threat is reduced. If he doesn't have Ray Allen in the corner, he's going to get covered more tightly on drives, and therefore do that less often. Just a possibility, I haven't really explored it in detail.