The superstar model may be irrelevant for the Celtics

[TheFlex]

You have to have top level stars to win a championship. Only the 2004 Pistons one could argue are the exception. Otherwise, you must have Hall of Fame talent on your roster. There is no other way. Thus we need to get lucky in the draft. We drafted Pierce, that led to a championship. (It took a while but it happened) I think Boston can be players in free agency, we will have real money in 2015 so lets see what happens. Plus, tradition and an amazing fan base counts. Players talk to each other and they know playing for a Boston team means something special.

I am for letting the young players play and develop this year, rolling the dice in the draft and then going for some top notch free agents.

I post this article every time the '04 Pistons get brought up, but there's a bit of an argument to be made that Ben Wallace was certainly a top level star that year:
http://wagesofwins.com/2013/01/02/the-myth-of-the-2004-pistons/

Awesome stuff. Thanks for reminding me how great Wages of Wins is. It's amazing how amateur defensive analysis was and still is even today. If Ben Wallace is only "above average," Bill Russell wasn't anything special either, only "pretty good." Thankfully, we have smart people who can speak the language of numbers to tell us that both claims are way off-base.

[CFAN38]

Just thought I would add to this thread a roster that I think would have been attainable over the past two offseason (with a lot of changes). Rondo is clearly the "star of this team".

How would this team have done in last years playoffs?

How would this team project against the current Cavs and Bulls?


PG Rondo
SG Afflalo (just traded for young SG and 2nd rd pick)
SF Green
PF Milsap (signed with hawks in 2013 2yr 19 mill)
C  Asik (just traded for protected 1st)
6th AB
7th Sullinger
8th Paul Pierce (could have been solid on return this offseason) or Caron butler (just signed 3r 9mill)

The rest of the bench would need to be rounded out with a PG and backed center but those 8 would get 95% of the minutes.

Like I said in my previous post in order for that unit to compete each player need to fill a role and excel at it. I think this team would. Every player listed other then Asik and Sully are very good perimeter defenders who can guard more then one position. This creates a versatile defense. On offense while the team lacks an elite scorer all four starters other then Asik would likely average over 14ppg. Both Rondo and Milsap have shown the ability to step up in a playoff series and to a lesser extent so has Green. If PP was brought back he is a wildcard on the bench capable of the big moments that win games.


This would be the type of "star less" team I would want to see constructed.

[Moranis]

Just thought I would add to this thread a roster that I think would have been attainable over the past two offseason (with a lot of changes). Rondo is clearly the "star of this team".

How would this team have done in last years playoffs?

How would this team project against the current Cavs and Bulls?


PG Rondo
SG Afflalo (just traded for young SG and 2nd rd pick)
SF Green
PF Milsap (signed with hawks in 2013 2yr 19 mill)
C  Asik (just traded for protected 1st)
6th AB
7th Sullinger
8th Paul Pierce (could have been solid on return this offseason) or Caron butler (just signed 3r 9mill)

The rest of the bench would need to be rounded out with a PG and backed center but those 8 would get 95% of the minutes.

Like I said in my previous post in order for that unit to compete each player need to fill a role and excel at it. I think this team would. Every player listed other then Asik and Sully are very good perimeter defenders who can guard more then one position. This creates a versatile defense. On offense while the team lacks an elite scorer all four starters other then Asik would likely average over 14ppg. Both Rondo and Milsap have shown the ability to step up in a playoff series and to a lesser extent so has Green. If PP was brought back he is a wildcard on the bench capable of the big moments that win games.


This would be the type of "star less" team I would want to see constructed.

That team would get slaughtered by the Cavs or Bulls.  5 games max. 

[Csfan1984]

Just thought I would add to this thread a roster that I think would have been attainable over the past two offseason (with a lot of changes). Rondo is clearly the "star of this team".

How would this team have done in last years playoffs?

How would this team project against the current Cavs and Bulls?


PG Rondo
SG Afflalo (just traded for young SG and 2nd rd pick)
SF Green
PF Milsap (signed with hawks in 2013 2yr 19 mill)
C  Asik (just traded for protected 1st)
6th AB
7th Sullinger
8th Paul Pierce (could have been solid on return this offseason) or Caron butler (just signed 3r 9mill)

The rest of the bench would need to be rounded out with a PG and backed center but those 8 would get 95% of the minutes.

Like I said in my previous post in order for that unit to compete each player need to fill a role and excel at it. I think this team would. Every player listed other then Asik and Sully are very good perimeter defenders who can guard more then one position. This creates a versatile defense. On offense while the team lacks an elite scorer all four starters other then Asik would likely average over 14ppg. Both Rondo and Milsap have shown the ability to step up in a playoff series and to a lesser extent so has Green. If PP was brought back he is a wildcard on the bench capable of the big moments that win games.


This would be the type of "star less" team I would want to see constructed.

Not a bad team but they don't win. Duncan and Parker are playoff risers and their role players played exceptionally well where one even won finals MVP. People want to pretend they all average players with chemistry. No Spurs have an All Time Great. There is no Duncan force on that Cs team. Not even uncanny elite specialists such as young Billups clutch performer, Rip go to mid range scorer + the Wallaces along with Prince unique game styles. Also no top ten player such as Dirk was. So no way I can see them winning any title. They would have lost to Heat most likely in efc. As of this year they are bounced 2nd round probably but could get a good match and make efc for 2nd straight year and lose to Cavs.

[Who]

Just thought I would add to this thread a roster that I think would have been attainable over the past two offseason (with a lot of changes). Rondo is clearly the "star of this team".

How would this team have done in last years playoffs?

How would this team project against the current Cavs and Bulls?


PG Rondo
SG Afflalo (just traded for young SG and 2nd rd pick)
SF Green
PF Milsap (signed with hawks in 2013 2yr 19 mill)
C  Asik (just traded for protected 1st)
6th AB
7th Sullinger
8th Paul Pierce (could have been solid on return this offseason) or Caron butler (just signed 3r 9mill)

The rest of the bench would need to be rounded out with a PG and backed center but those 8 would get 95% of the minutes.

Like I said in my previous post in order for that unit to compete each player need to fill a role and excel at it. I think this team would. Every player listed other then Asik and Sully are very good perimeter defenders who can guard more then one position. This creates a versatile defense. On offense while the team lacks an elite scorer all four starters other then Asik would likely average over 14ppg. Both Rondo and Milsap have shown the ability to step up in a playoff series and to a lesser extent so has Green. If PP was brought back he is a wildcard on the bench capable of the big moments that win games.


This would be the type of "star less" team I would want to see constructed.

I think that is a very strong team. A title contender right up there with the likes of Indiana and Chicago -- similarly built teams based around defense/rebounding and team balance.

It wouldn't have done well in last year's playoffs because Rondo was quite poor last season after returning from injury.

I think next season it would be a top 3 team in the East alongside Chicago and Cleveland. Capable of beating either team in a 7 game series.

[GetLucky]

Duncan is clearly a future hall of famer but he really is not playing at a hall of fame level at this point in his career.  A very high level but not HOF level. I don't think Parker or Ginobili are HOF players, maybe Parker, but I don't know.

So you could argue that the Spurs won a championship without any single player playing at a hall of fame level.

I would always rather have stars than not of course but there is a model for building a team that is more balanced with really good players with greater depth.  Smart could be a player at that really good level even if the HOF for him is a stretch.  Rondo is/could be/was (I don't know) but may also be traded for a young player with the promise to be really good.  That is a start; not much of a start; but a start.

I don't know what else a team can do.  You draft where the ping pong balls say you draft, you sign who you can sign, you hope for the 1 in 1,000 home run trade, and you hope someone over achieves or like Duncan, just stays good forever and never gets hurt (and there was a lot of luck in getting Duncan in the first place).

I hate to argue about minute details, but this is a very common misconception. If you look, Duncan's per 36 minute numbers (a stat that a lot of people here seem to love) are right on par with the rest of his career across the board. The only dip this past year was points, which was a fairly insignificant 1 basket per 36.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

[BballTim]

Duncan is clearly a future hall of famer but he really is not playing at a hall of fame level at this point in his career.  A very high level but not HOF level. I don't think Parker or Ginobili are HOF players, maybe Parker, but I don't know.

So you could argue that the Spurs won a championship without any single player playing at a hall of fame level.

I would always rather have stars than not of course but there is a model for building a team that is more balanced with really good players with greater depth.  Smart could be a player at that really good level even if the HOF for him is a stretch.  Rondo is/could be/was (I don't know) but may also be traded for a young player with the promise to be really good.  That is a start; not much of a start; but a start.

I don't know what else a team can do.  You draft where the ping pong balls say you draft, you sign who you can sign, you hope for the 1 in 1,000 home run trade, and you hope someone over achieves or like Duncan, just stays good forever and never gets hurt (and there was a lot of luck in getting Duncan in the first place).

I hate to argue about minute details, but this is a very common misconception. If you look, Duncan's per 36 minute numbers (a stat that a lot of people here seem to love) are right on par with the rest of his career across the board. The only dip this past year was points, which was a fairly insignificant 1 basket per 36.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

  Even if he's putting up good per36 numbers, the fact that he's playing fewer minutes lessens his impact on the games.

[cb8883]

You have to have top level stars to win a championship. Only the 2004 Pistons one could argue are the exception. Otherwise, you must have Hall of Fame talent on your roster. There is no other way. Thus we need to get lucky in the draft. We drafted Pierce, that led to a championship. (It took a while but it happened) I think Boston can be players in free agency, we will have real money in 2015 so lets see what happens. Plus, tradition and an amazing fan base counts. Players talk to each other and they know playing for a Boston team means something special.

I am for letting the young players play and develop this year, rolling the dice in the draft and then going for some top notch free agents.

Agreed with most of this. The problem is with your last statement. The Boston Celtics will never land a big name free agent. Ever. Weather is horrible and the nightlife is better in places like Texas, LA, Miami etc...we will always be a second/third tier franchise because of this. The sooner we know our place at the table, the sooner the fans can get behind the right way to build this team. Philly understood it, why is it so difficult for Celtics fans? Marcus Banks 2.0 is the type of player you get when you don't tank hard. Besides, other than Aldridge and Gasol no one is even close to star level on the market in 2015. Both have no reason to come to a worse situation as both of their current teams have much better players than the Celtics on the roster.

[Celtics4ever]

Weather is horrible and the nightlife is better in places like Texas, LA, Miami etc.

I have lived in Texas (near Dallas and El Paso) and I doubt they are going to Texas for the night life.  It is the lack of state income tax that draws people there.   Not that Texas night life is bad, I loved El Paso.

[slamtheking]

You have to have top level stars to win a championship. Only the 2004 Pistons one could argue are the exception. Otherwise, you must have Hall of Fame talent on your roster. There is no other way. Thus we need to get lucky in the draft. We drafted Pierce, that led to a championship. (It took a while but it happened) I think Boston can be players in free agency, we will have real money in 2015 so lets see what happens. Plus, tradition and an amazing fan base counts. Players talk to each other and they know playing for a Boston team means something special.

I am for letting the young players play and develop this year, rolling the dice in the draft and then going for some top notch free agents.

Agreed with most of this. The problem is with your last statement. The Boston Celtics will never land a big name free agent. Ever. Weather is horrible and the nightlife is better in places like Texas, LA, Miami etc...we will always be a second/third tier franchise because of this. The sooner we know our place at the table, the sooner the fans can get behind the right way to build this team. Philly understood it, why is it so difficult for Celtics fans? Marcus Banks 2.0 is the type of player you get when you don't tank hard. Besides, other than Aldridge and Gasol no one is even close to star level on the market in 2015. Both have no reason to come to a worse situation as both of their current teams have much better players than the Celtics on the roster.

your whole argument is just a fallacy.  C's have not had the cap room to sign a major FA.  that's the only reason they haven't signed one.  name one FA they had the money to sign but didn't.  The only player that even comes close to that scenario was David West and he chose Indy for what he considered a better shot at a title---not for any reason you mentioned.  Indy has worse weather, taxed nearly as much and a much worse nightlife.  based on your reasoning, West wouldn't have even considered signing there.

Boston has never had an issue signing FAs for any other sport.  Sox?  are you kidding -- almost always the second highest payroll because of the free agents they sign.  Pats?  no problems signing whoever they want.  Bruins?  no problems there either.  your arguments about Boston life, taxes, weather, etc..  have no merit when it comes to signing free agents.  they will go where they can get the most $, have a chance to win, have a great fanbase or a combination of those 3.  Once the C's have cap room to sign a top FA and show that their on their way to contending, the team will be in the mix for landing that FA.  the fanbase is second to none and the players know it and appreciate it.

[Moranis]

You have to have top level stars to win a championship. Only the 2004 Pistons one could argue are the exception. Otherwise, you must have Hall of Fame talent on your roster. There is no other way. Thus we need to get lucky in the draft. We drafted Pierce, that led to a championship. (It took a while but it happened) I think Boston can be players in free agency, we will have real money in 2015 so lets see what happens. Plus, tradition and an amazing fan base counts. Players talk to each other and they know playing for a Boston team means something special.

I am for letting the young players play and develop this year, rolling the dice in the draft and then going for some top notch free agents.

Agreed with most of this. The problem is with your last statement. The Boston Celtics will never land a big name free agent. Ever. Weather is horrible and the nightlife is better in places like Texas, LA, Miami etc...we will always be a second/third tier franchise because of this. The sooner we know our place at the table, the sooner the fans can get behind the right way to build this team. Philly understood it, why is it so difficult for Celtics fans? Marcus Banks 2.0 is the type of player you get when you don't tank hard. Besides, other than Aldridge and Gasol no one is even close to star level on the market in 2015. Both have no reason to come to a worse situation as both of their current teams have much better players than the Celtics on the roster.

your whole argument is just a fallacy.  C's have not had the cap room to sign a major FA.  that's the only reason they haven't signed one.  name one FA they had the money to sign but didn't.  The only player that even comes close to that scenario was David West and he chose Indy for what he considered a better shot at a title---not for any reason you mentioned.  Indy has worse weather, taxed nearly as much and a much worse nightlife.  based on your reasoning, West wouldn't have even considered signing there.

Boston has never had an issue signing FAs for any other sport.  Sox?  are you kidding -- almost always the second highest payroll because of the free agents they sign.  Pats?  no problems signing whoever they want.  Bruins?  no problems there either.  your arguments about Boston life, taxes, weather, etc..  have no merit when it comes to signing free agents.  they will go where they can get the most $, have a chance to win, have a great fanbase or a combination of those 3.  Once the C's have cap room to sign a top FA and show that their on their way to contending, the team will be in the mix for landing that FA.  the fanbase is second to none and the players know it and appreciate it.

David West is not a big name free agent.  He was and still is a very good player, but he isn't taking a 30 win team to a 45 win team or anything like that.  He is a complimentary piece.

New York had cap room for two max free agents and could only come away with Amare Stoudemire.  Chicago, with a 21/6/4 2nd year 21 year old PG (as well as Deng and Noah), could only land Carlos Boozer with all their cap room.  Chicago's own Dwayne Wade rejected them outright.  Dallas struck out twice.  Houston just struck out.  The Lakers just struck out royally.  I mean the reality is, even teams in better places have a hard time drawing free agents, but when you start looking at the weather, the taxes, the cost of living, etc. and Boston starts becoming less and less attractive.  That is why a top 3 pick would have been so much better for Boston.  You add a legit young talent to Rondo (or a legit talent to trade for Love) and the idea of winning becomes greater.  That is now gone and there is a very good chance Rondo leaves because it will be real obvious that Boston is not anywhere near a title contending team this year.

[D.o.s.]

'Could only come away with Amar'e Stoudemire' is a bit of a misleading sentence, since the season before he signed in New York he averaged 23-9 while playing in all 82 games in PDX.

Also, I like the weather here.

[JBcat]

I just think we need to remain patient, and continue accumulating assets.  Things can change on a hurry,and the landscape within a couple years in the NBA could be different than it is today.

I'm keeping my eye on Bosh in Miami who could play a smallish center for us.  I still think the Knicks situation is fragile so you never know what could happen with Melo.  Who knows maybe Indiana implodes, and George is on the market. Maybe if the Kings don't show significant improvement Cousins is on the table. If we can somehow at least upgrade our SF and C position over the next couple years we could be a contender.

I've mentioned this before I really think a rotation of Rondo PG, Bradley SG, and Smart combo guard could work great long term.  as Rondo enters his 30's you could keep his minutes low around 30 MPG while Smart's minutes increases.  between all 3 averaging around 30 MPG mixed in with a big SG playing spot minutes (maybe Young) we could be set there for a while.  If Sully and KO make jumps in their we could be very strong if we can get our hands on a top 10 center in a 3 man rotation.  Green still has some good value, and can be used with other assets for upgrades.

I think we are in decent shape now.  Just need to continue to be patient.

[slamtheking]

You have to have top level stars to win a championship. Only the 2004 Pistons one could argue are the exception. Otherwise, you must have Hall of Fame talent on your roster. There is no other way. Thus we need to get lucky in the draft. We drafted Pierce, that led to a championship. (It took a while but it happened) I think Boston can be players in free agency, we will have real money in 2015 so lets see what happens. Plus, tradition and an amazing fan base counts. Players talk to each other and they know playing for a Boston team means something special.

I am for letting the young players play and develop this year, rolling the dice in the draft and then going for some top notch free agents.

Agreed with most of this. The problem is with your last statement. The Boston Celtics will never land a big name free agent. Ever. Weather is horrible and the nightlife is better in places like Texas, LA, Miami etc...we will always be a second/third tier franchise because of this. The sooner we know our place at the table, the sooner the fans can get behind the right way to build this team. Philly understood it, why is it so difficult for Celtics fans? Marcus Banks 2.0 is the type of player you get when you don't tank hard. Besides, other than Aldridge and Gasol no one is even close to star level on the market in 2015. Both have no reason to come to a worse situation as both of their current teams have much better players than the Celtics on the roster.

your whole argument is just a fallacy.  C's have not had the cap room to sign a major FA.  that's the only reason they haven't signed one.  name one FA they had the money to sign but didn't.  The only player that even comes close to that scenario was David West and he chose Indy for what he considered a better shot at a title---not for any reason you mentioned.  Indy has worse weather, taxed nearly as much and a much worse nightlife.  based on your reasoning, West wouldn't have even considered signing there.

Boston has never had an issue signing FAs for any other sport.  Sox?  are you kidding -- almost always the second highest payroll because of the free agents they sign.  Pats?  no problems signing whoever they want.  Bruins?  no problems there either.  your arguments about Boston life, taxes, weather, etc..  have no merit when it comes to signing free agents.  they will go where they can get the most $, have a chance to win, have a great fanbase or a combination of those 3.  Once the C's have cap room to sign a top FA and show that their on their way to contending, the team will be in the mix for landing that FA.  the fanbase is second to none and the players know it and appreciate it.

David West is not a big name free agent.  He was and still is a very good player, but he isn't taking a 30 win team to a 45 win team or anything like that.  He is a complimentary piece.

New York had cap room for two max free agents and could only come away with Amare Stoudemire.  Chicago, with a 21/6/4 2nd year 21 year old PG (as well as Deng and Noah), could only land Carlos Boozer with all their cap room.  Chicago's own Dwayne Wade rejected them outright.  Dallas struck out twice.  Houston just struck out.  The Lakers just struck out royally.  I mean the reality is, even teams in better places have a hard time drawing free agents, but when you start looking at the weather, the taxes, the cost of living, etc. and Boston starts becoming less and less attractive.  That is why a top 3 pick would have been so much better for Boston.  You add a legit young talent to Rondo (or a legit talent to trade for Love) and the idea of winning becomes greater.  That is now gone and there is a very good chance Rondo leaves because it will be real obvious that Boston is not anywhere near a title contending team this year.

I'm not claiming West was a big free agent -- just the biggest name they tried to sign in free agency with what $ they had available.

what you mentioned about how much the other teams struck out has some leaks in it.  There were a lot of teams that had a money all at the same time and only a few top FAs to throw it at.  a number of teams were going to come up empty-handed and did.  Add in that Bron, Bosh and Wade colluded to play together and the writing was on the wall in terms of Miami coming out the big winner with everyone else pretty much sucking wind.

the point about other top places striking out other than that year more or less supports what I'm saying in that other teams aren't more attractive than the C's based on the theory they have better weather, taxes, nightlife/culture, etc... 
Dallas and Houston have a weather/tax 'advantage' over Boston--didn't help them.
Chicago and New York have a nightlife/culture advantage over Boston--didn't help them.
LA has a weather/nightlife advantage--didn't help them.
Miami has all 3 as an advantage--didn't help them keep Lebron did it because trust me, Cleveland is even worse the Boston on all 3 counts.

My core point is that cities with those supposed advantages aren't really at an advantage when you look at where players go.  They move for the 3 reasons I mentioned:
Money, chance to win, fanbase/team culture and in that order of priority IMHO.

[Vermont Green]

Duncan is clearly a future hall of famer but he really is not playing at a hall of fame level at this point in his career.  A very high level but not HOF level. I don't think Parker or Ginobili are HOF players, maybe Parker, but I don't know.

So you could argue that the Spurs won a championship without any single player playing at a hall of fame level.

I would always rather have stars than not of course but there is a model for building a team that is more balanced with really good players with greater depth.  Smart could be a player at that really good level even if the HOF for him is a stretch.  Rondo is/could be/was (I don't know) but may also be traded for a young player with the promise to be really good.  That is a start; not much of a start; but a start.

I don't know what else a team can do.  You draft where the ping pong balls say you draft, you sign who you can sign, you hope for the 1 in 1,000 home run trade, and you hope someone over achieves or like Duncan, just stays good forever and never gets hurt (and there was a lot of luck in getting Duncan in the first place).

I hate to argue about minute details, but this is a very common misconception. If you look, Duncan's per 36 minute numbers (a stat that a lot of people here seem to love) are right on par with the rest of his career across the board. The only dip this past year was points, which was a fairly insignificant 1 basket per 36.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

  Even if he's putting up good per36 numbers, the fact that he's playing fewer minutes lessens his impact on the games.

Thanks Tim, yes, what he said.  Duncan is still a very valuable player but the Hall of Fame is not going to make adjustments for per36 stats.

Duncan's longevity, durability, and consistency (consistently high level) have really been amazing, there is no doubt about that.