Author Topic: Just going young  (Read 8527 times)

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Re: Just going young
« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2014, 08:25:49 AM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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I don't know which is further out -- Asik as MVP or Love as DPOY.
 ;D

Can the draft hurry up and get here already?

lolol
LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: Just going young
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2014, 08:40:10 AM »

Offline Casperian

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I mean, it obviously depends on the cost of Love.  If the cost is #6, Sully or Olynyk, and that's it, then I don't see how you don't do it.  Love is a better passer and 3-point shooter than Olynyk, and a better post-player and rebounder than Sullinger.  They all play power forward, which just happens to be the position of most of the likely draftees at #6.  Love is only 25 -- he still has his best years ahead of him in all likelihood.  He's a young star just beginning to enter his 5-7 year prime.  Heck, even if we have to give the lesser of our 2015 picks, I'm okay with that too.  The Celtics will be better off with Love, hands down.

Now, if you're talking a pick a year for three years, then it might be getting overpriced.  Or if some other team who wants to move up in the draft is willing to offer a great price to do so, I'd consider that alternative.  But the talent at the 6th slot is just duplicative with our best talent so as to not be as valuable to us.  Maybe it's a marginal upgrade, or maybe it's not, but it's inferior to the current version of Love in either case.  And if at the same time, you can add an interior defensive anchor like Asik at the cost of zero or minimal future assets, then you do that too, without blinking.  In my opinion, the Celtics should be able to acquire Love and Asik, keep one of Sullinger or Olynyk, and still have a 1st in this year's draft, next year's draft, and still have 5 firsts from 2016-2018.  That'll be more than enough youth, while actually having a solid foundation to integrate that youth into.  Unless some team comes in with a crazy offer for Love (such as #1 overall from Cleveland), it may be possible to have our cake and eat it too.

It's not just the cost of acquiring Love which scares me, though, it's also the cost of retaining Love. Whichever team pays big money to Kevin Love and Rajon Rondo will give up a) financial flexibility to make further moves and b) most likely overpay for both, anyway. Both players are not worth the money they will most definitely demand in comparison to players in the league with similar impact on the W- L column.

In a vacuum, Kevin Love is a nice player. The trade-off between his impact on the court and his impact on the salary cap, though, will turn into a sizable net negative in team production, in my opinion.

That's why I think going for Kevin Love at this stage is the true road to mediocrity. Simply adding him in FA for the money he'll demand would be a net negative, but when you factor in the cost to acquire him, it turns into a huge mistake.

Kevin Love is not a true star player, neither is Rajon Rondo, unless you're talking fantasy basketball. They are the guys you put around the star. Getting those guys first is just crippling our chances at acquiring aforementioned star. If you are ok with perennial second round exits, then by all means, Love is the way to go. Personally, I wish we'd show more patience and shoot for the banners.
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Re: Just going young
« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2014, 09:05:14 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I mean, it obviously depends on the cost of Love.  If the cost is #6, Sully or Olynyk, and that's it, then I don't see how you don't do it.  Love is a better passer and 3-point shooter than Olynyk, and a better post-player and rebounder than Sullinger.  They all play power forward, which just happens to be the position of most of the likely draftees at #6.  Love is only 25 -- he still has his best years ahead of him in all likelihood.  He's a young star just beginning to enter his 5-7 year prime.  Heck, even if we have to give the lesser of our 2015 picks, I'm okay with that too.  The Celtics will be better off with Love, hands down.

Now, if you're talking a pick a year for three years, then it might be getting overpriced.  Or if some other team who wants to move up in the draft is willing to offer a great price to do so, I'd consider that alternative.  But the talent at the 6th slot is just duplicative with our best talent so as to not be as valuable to us.  Maybe it's a marginal upgrade, or maybe it's not, but it's inferior to the current version of Love in either case.  And if at the same time, you can add an interior defensive anchor like Asik at the cost of zero or minimal future assets, then you do that too, without blinking.  In my opinion, the Celtics should be able to acquire Love and Asik, keep one of Sullinger or Olynyk, and still have a 1st in this year's draft, next year's draft, and still have 5 firsts from 2016-2018.  That'll be more than enough youth, while actually having a solid foundation to integrate that youth into.  Unless some team comes in with a crazy offer for Love (such as #1 overall from Cleveland), it may be possible to have our cake and eat it too.

It's not just the cost of acquiring Love which scares me, though, it's also the cost of retaining Love. Whichever team pays big money to Kevin Love and Rajon Rondo will give up a) financial flexibility to make further moves and b) most likely overpay for both, anyway. Both players are not worth the money they will most definitely demand in comparison to players in the league with similar impact on the W- L column.

In a vacuum, Kevin Love is a nice player. The trade-off between his impact on the court and his impact on the salary cap, though, will turn into a sizable net negative in team production, in my opinion.

That's why I think going for Kevin Love at this stage is the true road to mediocrity. Simply adding him in FA for the money he'll demand would be a net negative, but when you factor in the cost to acquire him, it turns into a huge mistake.

Kevin Love is not a true star player, neither is Rajon Rondo, unless you're talking fantasy basketball. They are the guys you put around the star. Getting those guys first is just crippling our chances at acquiring aforementioned star. If you are ok with perennial second round exits, then by all means, Love is the way to go. Personally, I wish we'd show more patience and shoot for the banners.

Love is a true star.  Here's the issue:  LeBron and Durant are underpaid, because of the max salary.  It's a fact.  If you have one of those few players who are worth way more than the max, you're at a huge advantage because they subsidize the rest of your team.  Love is worth a lot of money on the open market because most every team with room for a max salary player would offer him it, except perhaps Dallas and Portland, because of Dirk and Aldridge.  Just because he's worth less than some players who will make near the same (his max number is less than Lebron's, however, by about 15%), doesn't mean he's not worth it.  The open market would indicate he is.

Money shouldn't be the issue.  In fact, trading for players allows the Celtics owners to spend more.  If they're already on the Celtics when they hit free agency, we can go well above the salary cap.  The owners seem very willing to do this, and pay the luxury tax some years, for a winning team.  Passing on players like Love may save you money, but it also will limit the ability to spend the $17-$19 million between the soft cap and the hard cap, which means you're not using all the resources at your disposal.

Re: Just going young
« Reply #18 on: May 28, 2014, 11:27:40 AM »

Offline celticpride1

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Congrats.  You have the perfect recipe for another 20+ years of mediocrity.  With your suggestion, they might as well stick a fork in us and bury us.

No one is talking one year rebuild (why is this a quick misconception around here when it comes to trading for Love?)  The chances of him resigning with us after a year in Boston, barring on Melo coming to town and us having Rondo, is great and legit.  This isn't the Lakers, so get that out of your mind.

Danny WILL not stop after Love.  I feel this point should be hammered home to everyone against the Love trade.  We have one of the very best GM in the league (a very experienced one might I add), if I have the sense that the hardest I have to work is after I nail Love, Danny more than know this and has already chopped this up in ways you couldn't even begin to imagine.  Why would he risk picks and assets on just one year of service knowing that Love staying hinges on the possibility of another star coming to join him?

And we have, more than any other team in the league, the room and the luxury to trade for at least two high caliber stars.  Why think we're just going to get Kevin Love and then stop working?

And the last point is there is absolutely no guarantees with building from scratch...NONE.  I would take my chances (every single time) with proven stars like Kevin Love and Melo than tediously and patiently wait and develop group of guys that may either end up leaving (that's the trend these days in the league) or end up being a bust.  It'll be very naive to think a Lebron or a Durant is in this years drafts.  As a matter of fact, going this route would only net us a lot of Roy Hilberts and Paul Georges (if we're even that lucky).  So this is a resounding NO from me.


I respect your thoughts but I must reply I guess OKC  got a bunch of nobodys when they drafted in the lottery? Durrant Westbrook Ibaka? Need I go on yes i Know the chance of getting lucky like that for three years very unlikely but at this point I dont believe K Love is walking thru that door at a High price tag.

Re: Just going young
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2014, 12:01:01 PM »

Offline KamikazeK

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I find it amusing that the Celtics get screwed in the lottery yet again, and some of you guys want more time in the lottery. It defies logic.  ???

Re: Just going young
« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2014, 12:05:11 PM »

Online slamtheking

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I mean, it obviously depends on the cost of Love.  If the cost is #6, Sully or Olynyk, and that's it, then I don't see how you don't do it.  Love is a better passer and 3-point shooter than Olynyk, and a better post-player and rebounder than Sullinger.  They all play power forward, which just happens to be the position of most of the likely draftees at #6.  Love is only 25 -- he still has his best years ahead of him in all likelihood.  He's a young star just beginning to enter his 5-7 year prime.  Heck, even if we have to give the lesser of our 2015 picks, I'm okay with that too.  The Celtics will be better off with Love, hands down.

Now, if you're talking a pick a year for three years, then it might be getting overpriced.  Or if some other team who wants to move up in the draft is willing to offer a great price to do so, I'd consider that alternative.  But the talent at the 6th slot is just duplicative with our best talent so as to not be as valuable to us.  Maybe it's a marginal upgrade, or maybe it's not, but it's inferior to the current version of Love in either case.  And if at the same time, you can add an interior defensive anchor like Asik at the cost of zero or minimal future assets, then you do that too, without blinking.  In my opinion, the Celtics should be able to acquire Love and Asik, keep one of Sullinger or Olynyk, and still have a 1st in this year's draft, next year's draft, and still have 5 firsts from 2016-2018.  That'll be more than enough youth, while actually having a solid foundation to integrate that youth into.  Unless some team comes in with a crazy offer for Love (such as #1 overall from Cleveland), it may be possible to have our cake and eat it too.
This.   
it's like you've been reading all my posts on this topic ;)

If we can get Love and Asik for reasonable deals, by all means let's do so.  the biggest issue I've seen in all the threads isn't that we shouldn't get Love or Asik but what exactly constitutes a 'reasonable' deal.  For me, it's what you've outlined above which is what I've been suggesting: #6, Sully (or KO), non-guaranteed contracts for salary matching and one of the following: AB S&T OR #17 OR lesser of C's/Clips pick next year. 

Asik's worth depends on whether Houston can get Melo from NY.  If they can, probably take the TPE for Asik and hope we have enough non-guaranteed contracts left to take Lin off their hands.  would require they throw in a future pick for helping them.  If they can't get Melo, probably would have to send them some productive players to complement Harden and Howard like Bass, AB or Green.  May still have to take Lin off their hands but would require them to send a future pick as well.

Re: Just going young
« Reply #21 on: May 28, 2014, 12:16:46 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I'm all for going young, I much prefer home grown Celtics than players we trade for but the cost is too great. I fear that if we are not at the very least a playoff team next year Rondo will bolt for greener pastures, at which point it will be more than a 3 years before we are good again.

Other than a Love trade my ideal situation is drafting two guys this year and having them as well as KO and Sully develop to the point that we make the playoffs with Rondo. Then in the 2015 offseason when we have space we can add a top level talent to add to Rondo and our up and coming core. It all hinges on doing whatever you can to keep Rondo.
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Re: Just going young
« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2014, 12:52:17 PM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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Be great to get the perfect mix of trading some picks / players for established vets and keeping at least 1 1st rounder every year to continue building with young talent.

After the Chauncey Billups & Joe Johnson fiascoes of the past, I lean towards drafting and keeping our own more often that not. Obviously, a home run was hit w/ Ray and KG . . .but that did cost us a chance at drafting Jo Noah, a dude who just won defensive POY and is considered a top 5 or 10 player in the NBA. Steph Curry too, who is thought of as the league's most dangerous shooter.

Had the youth movement stuck (instead of the KG & Ray trades), the Celts could have had players like Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Paul Pierce (or a haul of a return for trading him), Joakim Noah (Boston pick kept from Ray Allen trade), Stephen Curry or DeMar DeRozan (Minny pick kept from KG trade). Rondo. Avery.

There was plenty of speculation about how Noah would fit next to Al Jefferson. Could you imagine it now? They are the perfect tandem some people thought they might be. Both top in the NBA in terms of low post defense and low post offense. Great passers and leaders for their respective teams. Gerald Green took a long time to develop but is truly hitting his stride. Perk could have been flipped for a Jeff Green type or kept for additional interior toughness. 

Very hypothetical starting 5:
-Rondo (All Star)
-S. Curry (All Star)
-Pierce (former All Star)
-Al Jeff (ridiculous he's never been an All Star)
-Noah (All Star)
Very hypothetical bench:
-Avery
-Perkins
-G. Green
-KO
-Sully

Not a terrible outcome. Picks would have been in different places of course, but many of those later 1st round players could have been had in similar spots. The C's would have a much deeper team contending now with additional room to improve. Be tough to have made the salaries work but it sure looks nice on paper.

Re: Just going young
« Reply #23 on: May 28, 2014, 01:14:09 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Be great to get the perfect mix of trading some picks / players for established vets and keeping at least 1 1st rounder every year to continue building with young talent.

After the Chauncey Billups & Joe Johnson fiascoes of the past, I lean towards drafting and keeping our own more often that not. Obviously, a home run was hit w/ Ray and KG . . .but that did cost us a chance at drafting Jo Noah, a dude who just won defensive POY and is considered a top 5 or 10 player in the NBA. Steph Curry too, who is thought of as the league's most dangerous shooter.

Had the youth movement stuck (instead of the KG & Ray trades), the Celts could have had players like Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Paul Pierce (or a haul of a return for trading him), Joakim Noah (Boston pick kept from Ray Allen trade), Stephen Curry or DeMar DeRozan (Minny pick kept from KG trade). Rondo. Avery.

There was plenty of speculation about how Noah would fit next to Al Jefferson. Could you imagine it now? They are the perfect tandem some people thought they might be. Both top in the NBA in terms of low post defense and low post offense. Great passers and leaders for their respective teams. Gerald Green took a long time to develop but is truly hitting his stride. Perk could have been flipped for a Jeff Green type or kept for additional interior toughness. 

Very hypothetical starting 5:
-Rondo (All Star)
-S. Curry (All Star)
-Pierce (former All Star)
-Al Jeff (ridiculous he's never been an All Star)
-Noah (All Star)
Very hypothetical bench:
-Avery
-Perkins
-G. Green
-KO
-Sully

Not a terrible outcome. Picks would have been in different places of course, but many of those later 1st round players could have been had in similar spots. The C's would have a much deeper team contending now with additional room to improve. Be tough to have made the salaries work but it sure looks nice on paper.


I will just be happy that the Celtics got KG and Ray and won the title.



This "best case" scenario would have been a long shot at best.



If the Celtics can get a young star for pieces that would take a lot of luck to develop into something close is almost a no brainer.

Re: Just going young
« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2014, 01:21:26 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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  I wouldn't be as excited about going after Carmelo Anthony and Marcin Gortat, who I consider to be inferior players.

To say Love is better than Melo is comical.  Take a look at their career averages and how may playoff games each has played.  Then come back and tell me again which one is inferior.

As a scorer and a winner Melo leaves Love in his dust.

"We are stuck in a 7 game series against Kevin Love"
- Said nobody EVER
If I had to pick one alleged superstar to go against in a 7-game series, I'd pick Melo every time. Winner? More like whiner, pouter and choker in my book.
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Re: Just going young
« Reply #25 on: May 28, 2014, 01:40:35 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Kevin Love is not a true star player, neither is Rajon Rondo, unless you're talking fantasy basketball. They are the guys you put around the star. Getting those guys first is just crippling our chances at acquiring aforementioned star. If you are ok with perennial second round exits, then by all means, Love is the way to go. Personally, I wish we'd show more patience and shoot for the banners.


If Rajon Rondo and Kevin Love are guys that you put around a star, which star are you hoping to acquire to start the rebuild?
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Re: Just going young
« Reply #26 on: May 28, 2014, 01:46:45 PM »

Offline djsway104

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Enough of the K Love Asik  trade talk.Why is everybody so quick to want a one year rebuild?

I'm not in favor of a one-year rebuild for the sake of doing it quickly, I am in favor of going after specifically Kevin Love and Omer Asik because I believe it is a rare occasion to have a shot at acquiring a potential MVP and a potential DPOY while still having several draft picks left over to either use on young players or trade for more pieces.  I wouldn't be as excited about going after Carmelo Anthony and Marcin Gortat, who I consider to be inferior players.

On no planet will Asik ever be a DPOTY.  Likewise Kevin Love will never be an MVP because he'll never be the best player on a contender.  His teams always lose, and players on losing teams don't win MVP awards.

How about KG?

Re: Just going young
« Reply #27 on: May 28, 2014, 01:55:07 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Enough of the K Love Asik  trade talk.Why is everybody so quick to want a one year rebuild?

I'm not in favor of a one-year rebuild for the sake of doing it quickly, I am in favor of going after specifically Kevin Love and Omer Asik because I believe it is a rare occasion to have a shot at acquiring a potential MVP and a potential DPOY while still having several draft picks left over to either use on young players or trade for more pieces.  I wouldn't be as excited about going after Carmelo Anthony and Marcin Gortat, who I consider to be inferior players.

On no planet will Asik ever be a DPOTY.  Likewise Kevin Love will never be an MVP because he'll never be the best player on a contender.  His teams always lose, and players on losing teams don't win MVP awards.

How about KG?
How about him? He won an MVP once, and the Timberwolves won 58 games that season.
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Re: Just going young
« Reply #28 on: May 28, 2014, 02:47:41 PM »

Offline playdream

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Love is better than KO and Sully but not by much
He is a stat padder and can't win games for his team
that said we shouldn't go all out for him
With only him and Rondo we will most likey to enter the lottery again next year
this year's two first rounders and our next year first rounder, Green, Bass, AB is fair value

Re: Just going young
« Reply #29 on: May 28, 2014, 02:50:33 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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I don't know which is further out -- Asik as MVP or Love as DPOY.
 ;D

Can the draft hurry up and get here already?

lolol

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