Reality Check...Draft Smart/Trade Rondo

[Celtics18]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

[SHAQATTACK]

More I think about this team the more people I think have to leave for it to get healthy .

Probably Rondo, Green , Wallace , and Bass.

Tank and reload ...one more season.

[DraftSmart33]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

Actually I never intended to speculate that others would pay Rondo a max deal (although I know thats how my sentence came across).  I do think he'll expect more money than he is worth to us.  The speculation about his return comes mostly from the facts about what Holiday garnished Philly and Rondo's willingness to sign an extension.  Not many teams are willing to give up assets for a rental.  So to be fair I don't see the confusion with my logic.

[DraftSmart33]

I also think the assumptions made on this thread, while many may not agree with the maneuvers, are at very least realistic and fair.  I'm not getting Harden or Aldridge here for Pressey.

I think we are years away from contention but could be a season away from the playoffs with the right moves.  Lin, Asik and by some miracle Parsons could be a step in that direction.   

The bottom line is we need a good draft this year no matter which players we select or which path we choose.

I appreciate the conversation from all views.

[Celtics18]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

Actually I never intended to speculate that others would pay Rondo a max deal (although I know thats how my sentence came across).  I do think he'll expect more money than he is worth to us.  The speculation about his return comes mostly from the facts about what Holiday garnished Philly and Rondo's willingness to sign an extension.  Not many teams are willing to give up assets for a rental.  So to be fair I don't see the confusion with my logic.

I haven't heard or read anyone claim that they think that Rondo will be able to get a five year deal worth $100million next off-season. 

It doesn't seem like a realistic number, certainly not right now with him coming off two seasons from hell.  I guess maybe if he comes back fully healthy and with an insatiable hunger as Danny Ainge says he expects him to, if he plays himself on to the all star team, leads his team to the playoffs, and basically has his best season ever, then I guess maybe somebody will offer that. 

I think it's possible that he could do that next season.  If he does, then we'll have to see what it will take to keep him.

If we can talk him into signing the extension this summer, and then he goes out and plays like a monster next year, then, well, all the better. 

With all that in mind, desperately trading him away at a bargain basement price for fear that we may end up losing him for nothing seems like the worst possible idea for dealing with the Rondo situation. 


To me, it's the "can't win anyway, so why even try?" attitude that permeates much of the discussion around here lately.  I'm not a fan of that attitude when it comes to my Celtics. 

[slamtheking]

I enjoy reading the blog and have contributed over the years, but I have to say over the last few weeks I have been blown away but the thoughts and posts by some of my fellow Celtics fans.  Trade for J.Smith (Seriously...again)  Rondo for Harden (Seriously..never going to happen) Trade Rondo for Westbrook...Trade Rondo to Houston for Lin, Parsons, Asik, 3 1st's and oh yeah they'll take back Wallace (What the #%).

The truth is simply this...We need a top 3 pick and if we don't land one of those coveted slots we should draft Marcus Smart.  He has elite ability and offers the Celtics something the NBA is built on...mismatches.  At 6'4 and 215 Smart is a tank that defends, gets to the line and shots FT well.  His singular incident is blown way out of proportion and should only be a warning to us all that we are judge severely for missteps and quickly forgotten for best intentions (staying in school to improve his game).

Next we hope that Houston is willing to take Rondo for some package including Parsons but should expect a deal that only returns us Lin and Asik.  A PG even one as talented and accomplished as Rondo in a dime a dozen in this era of the NBA and unfortunately he has less and less value to us and to others as each year passes by.  And when you argue Rondo is truly elite run through the list of NBA teams and their players running the point....Lilliard, Westbrook, Williams, Paul, Curry, Holiday, Bledsoe, Dragic, Lowry, Carter-Williams, Parker, Teague, Rose, Connely..etc.

It might look something like this..

PG- Lin/Smart (whoever is better...Lin a one year rental)
SG- Bradley/Smart/Johnson (Bradley better take it on the cheap for 60 games a season)
SF -Green/Warran/Wallace
PF- Sullinger/Olynyk
C-  Asik/Humphries/Anthony

Contender? Nope  Playoff Team in the East? Yup...add Parsons and the right Free Agents and most teams in the East won't want us in the playoffs.

If the ping pong balls roll right it looks like this

PG- Rondo/Pressy
SG- Bradley/Johnson
SF- Green/Wallace/
PF- Sullinger/Olynyk
C- Embid/Anthony

Which Team is better?  Short Term?  Long Term?

as others mentioned, no need to move Rondo if Smart is drafted.  If Danny did draft Smart, I highly suspect it's for another team with a pick in the late lottery where danny swaps Smart for a good young player and that later pick.

as for your comparisons,
the first team wouldn't scare any contenders.  none.  there isn't a all-star on that roster.  no one that can take over a game or put the team on their shoulders and carry them for a playoff series.  a game in a series?  maybe Green or Sully could get hot but Green lacks the fire and Sully isn't at that level yet (if ever).

The second team is missing the #17 pick.  you selected TJ Warren for your first team option so we'll go with him as your pick on the second team.  if we get Embiid, great.  unlikely but great.  He makes the second team the better option.  for the sake of argument, we'll say it's still the fifth pick and Danny takes Smart but doesn't trade Rondo but plans to develop Smart as a combo guard off the bench to play behind Rondo and AB where he can sub for either.  if Smart can develop into a Dumars-type player, the Cs have themselves a very good guard rotation and can go into next offseason looking to add the centers they need either via the draft (they'll still be a lottery team) or free agency with Rondo to act as a draw.  I have no doubt that provided Danny demonstrates he has a plan for improvement, Rondo will resign for reasonable money.  he's not a max player but he'll get more than he's making now provided he shows he healthy.

having said all that, I'm really leaning towards Danny trading Smart in a draft-day deal if he picks him.

[Eddie20]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

Actually I never intended to speculate that others would pay Rondo a max deal (although I know thats how my sentence came across).  I do think he'll expect more money than he is worth to us.  The speculation about his return comes mostly from the facts about what Holiday garnished Philly and Rondo's willingness to sign an extension.  Not many teams are willing to give up assets for a rental.  So to be fair I don't see the confusion with my logic.

I haven't heard or read anyone claim that they think that Rondo will be able to get a five year deal worth $100million next off-season. 

It doesn't seem like a realistic number, certainly not right now with him coming off two seasons from hell.  I guess maybe if he comes back fully healthy and with an insatiable hunger as Danny Ainge says he expects him to, if he plays himself on to the all star team, leads his team to the playoffs, and basically has his best season ever, then I guess maybe somebody will offer that. 

I think it's possible that he could do that next season.  If he does, then we'll have to see what it will take to keep him.

If we can talk him into signing the extension this summer, and then he goes out and plays like a monster next year, then, well, all the better. 

With all that in mind, desperately trading him away at a bargain basement price for fear that we may end up losing him for nothing seems like the worst possible idea for dealing with the Rondo situation. 


To me, it's the "can't win anyway, so why even try?" attitude that permeates much of the discussion around here lately.  I'm not a fan of that attitude when it comes to my Celtics.

This summer will be interesting because we could offer an extension and also provide him with a no trade clause. If he declines and simply plays out the season then I would think that's a good sign he's looking for John Wall type of money (5 yrs - 80M)

Forsberg:

This summer, Boston has two potential extension options for Rondo. The team can tack on a three-year, $44.8 million extension to the final year of his current deal without a signing bonus, which would pay him the scheduled $12.9 million in 2014-15, $13.9 million in 2015-16; $14.9 million in 2016-17; and $16 million in 2017-18. Or, if Boston can stomach a signing bonus payment of $6.6 million, those annual salaries would drop to $11.7 million, $12.5 million and $13.4 million in the extended seasons.

[BballTim]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

Actually I never intended to speculate that others would pay Rondo a max deal (although I know thats how my sentence came across).  I do think he'll expect more money than he is worth to us.  The speculation about his return comes mostly from the facts about what Holiday garnished Philly and Rondo's willingness to sign an extension.  Not many teams are willing to give up assets for a rental.  So to be fair I don't see the confusion with my logic.

I haven't heard or read anyone claim that they think that Rondo will be able to get a five year deal worth $100million next off-season. 

It doesn't seem like a realistic number, certainly not right now with him coming off two seasons from hell.  I guess maybe if he comes back fully healthy and with an insatiable hunger as Danny Ainge says he expects him to, if he plays himself on to the all star team, leads his team to the playoffs, and basically has his best season ever, then I guess maybe somebody will offer that. 

I think it's possible that he could do that next season.  If he does, then we'll have to see what it will take to keep him.

If we can talk him into signing the extension this summer, and then he goes out and plays like a monster next year, then, well, all the better. 

With all that in mind, desperately trading him away at a bargain basement price for fear that we may end up losing him for nothing seems like the worst possible idea for dealing with the Rondo situation. 


To me, it's the "can't win anyway, so why even try?" attitude that permeates much of the discussion around here lately.  I'm not a fan of that attitude when it comes to my Celtics.

This summer will be interesting because we could offer an extension and also provide him with a no trade clause. If he declines and simply plays out the season then I would think that's a good sign he's looking for John Wall type of money (5 yrs - 80M)

Forsberg:

This summer, Boston has two potential extension options for Rondo. The team can tack on a three-year, $44.8 million extension to the final year of his current deal without a signing bonus, which would pay him the scheduled $12.9 million in 2014-15, $13.9 million in 2015-16; $14.9 million in 2016-17; and $16 million in 2017-18. Or, if Boston can stomach a signing bonus payment of $6.6 million, those annual salaries would drop to $11.7 million, $12.5 million and $13.4 million in the extended seasons.

  Does anyone know how signing bonuses work in terms of cap numbers?

[Celtics18]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

Actually I never intended to speculate that others would pay Rondo a max deal (although I know thats how my sentence came across).  I do think he'll expect more money than he is worth to us.  The speculation about his return comes mostly from the facts about what Holiday garnished Philly and Rondo's willingness to sign an extension.  Not many teams are willing to give up assets for a rental.  So to be fair I don't see the confusion with my logic.

I haven't heard or read anyone claim that they think that Rondo will be able to get a five year deal worth $100million next off-season. 

It doesn't seem like a realistic number, certainly not right now with him coming off two seasons from hell.  I guess maybe if he comes back fully healthy and with an insatiable hunger as Danny Ainge says he expects him to, if he plays himself on to the all star team, leads his team to the playoffs, and basically has his best season ever, then I guess maybe somebody will offer that. 

I think it's possible that he could do that next season.  If he does, then we'll have to see what it will take to keep him.

If we can talk him into signing the extension this summer, and then he goes out and plays like a monster next year, then, well, all the better. 

With all that in mind, desperately trading him away at a bargain basement price for fear that we may end up losing him for nothing seems like the worst possible idea for dealing with the Rondo situation. 


To me, it's the "can't win anyway, so why even try?" attitude that permeates much of the discussion around here lately.  I'm not a fan of that attitude when it comes to my Celtics.

This summer will be interesting because we could offer an extension and also provide him with a no trade clause. If he declines and simply plays out the season then I would think that's a good sign he's looking for John Wall type of money (5 yrs - 80M)

Forsberg:

This summer, Boston has two potential extension options for Rondo. The team can tack on a three-year, $44.8 million extension to the final year of his current deal without a signing bonus, which would pay him the scheduled $12.9 million in 2014-15, $13.9 million in 2015-16; $14.9 million in 2016-17; and $16 million in 2017-18. Or, if Boston can stomach a signing bonus payment of $6.6 million, those annual salaries would drop to $11.7 million, $12.5 million and $13.4 million in the extended seasons.

One thing is for sure, if he declines the extension this summer, it will be in the hopes of earning more in free agency.

How much more (or possibly less) he'll be offered will depend heavily on how he performs next season. 

[Eddie20]

Your logic doesn't make sense to me, DraftSmart.

On the one hand you are saying that we need to trade Rondo because someone's going to pay him $100million over five years next off-season.

On the other hand you are saying that we shouldn't expect much value back for him in this imperative trade because he's not worth very much.

It doesn't add up.

Actually I never intended to speculate that others would pay Rondo a max deal (although I know thats how my sentence came across).  I do think he'll expect more money than he is worth to us.  The speculation about his return comes mostly from the facts about what Holiday garnished Philly and Rondo's willingness to sign an extension.  Not many teams are willing to give up assets for a rental.  So to be fair I don't see the confusion with my logic.

I haven't heard or read anyone claim that they think that Rondo will be able to get a five year deal worth $100million next off-season. 

It doesn't seem like a realistic number, certainly not right now with him coming off two seasons from hell.  I guess maybe if he comes back fully healthy and with an insatiable hunger as Danny Ainge says he expects him to, if he plays himself on to the all star team, leads his team to the playoffs, and basically has his best season ever, then I guess maybe somebody will offer that. 

I think it's possible that he could do that next season.  If he does, then we'll have to see what it will take to keep him.

If we can talk him into signing the extension this summer, and then he goes out and plays like a monster next year, then, well, all the better. 

With all that in mind, desperately trading him away at a bargain basement price for fear that we may end up losing him for nothing seems like the worst possible idea for dealing with the Rondo situation. 


To me, it's the "can't win anyway, so why even try?" attitude that permeates much of the discussion around here lately.  I'm not a fan of that attitude when it comes to my Celtics.

This summer will be interesting because we could offer an extension and also provide him with a no trade clause. If he declines and simply plays out the season then I would think that's a good sign he's looking for John Wall type of money (5 yrs - 80M)

Forsberg:

This summer, Boston has two potential extension options for Rondo. The team can tack on a three-year, $44.8 million extension to the final year of his current deal without a signing bonus, which would pay him the scheduled $12.9 million in 2014-15, $13.9 million in 2015-16; $14.9 million in 2016-17; and $16 million in 2017-18. Or, if Boston can stomach a signing bonus payment of $6.6 million, those annual salaries would drop to $11.7 million, $12.5 million and $13.4 million in the extended seasons.

  Does anyone know how signing bonuses work in terms of cap numbers?

Well giving him the signing bonus would change his cap figure in 15-16 by 2.2m, 16-17 by 2.4m, and 17-18 by 2.6m...that actually comes out to 7.2, but whatever. I think it's a similar situation as Asik, where his cap number differs from his actually salary number.

[chambers]

His stats are eerily similar to Dwyane Wade's in college except he doesn't take the ball to the basket as much because he's playing point guard.
He'd make an excellent combo guard in the NBA and I'd try and make him a swing player like Avery Bradley.
His jumpshot is fine and he'll perfect it in NBA training day in and day out- his form and mechanics are excellent.
He's got the size and strength, most importantly the quickness to match with elite NBA guards.

Probably one of the closest things to a 'sure thing' for me in the NBA.
I have no doubt he'll be at the very least a solid starting point guard for quite some time- if he can attack the basket more and get to the line he'll be a bench All Star. If he can shoot over 40% from 3 point land he'll be a perennial All Star/franchise guy.
His finishing under contact is lethal.

I'd actually draft him and keep him next to Rondo and see if they can co-exist.
Put him at the 2 guard spot and let him attack just like we wanted Avery to do.
If he looks better at point guard after a season, trade Rondo and get a nice piece back as we continue to rebuild.

Cracks me up to see people talking about Aaron Gordon as their pick at #5 because of his defense and hustle, whilst Smart's shooting is a worry.
Gordon's shooting isn't though? lol.
compare Smart and Wade's college season numbers. Wade was a 2 year college player as well.

[CFAN38]

I enjoy reading the blog and have contributed over the years, but I have to say over the last few weeks I have been blown away but the thoughts and posts by some of my fellow Celtics fans.  Trade for J.Smith (Seriously...again)  Rondo for Harden (Seriously..never going to happen) Trade Rondo for Westbrook...Trade Rondo to Houston for Lin, Parsons, Asik, 3 1st's and oh yeah they'll take back Wallace (What the #%).

The truth is simply this...We need a top 3 pick and if we don't land one of those coveted slots we should draft Marcus Smart.  He has elite ability and offers the Celtics something the NBA is built on...mismatches.  At 6'4 and 215 Smart is a tank that defends, gets to the line and shots FT well.  His singular incident is blown way out of proportion and should only be a warning to us all that we are judge severely for missteps and quickly forgotten for best intentions (staying in school to improve his game).

Next we hope that Houston is willing to take Rondo for some package including Parsons but should expect a deal that only returns us Lin and Asik.  A PG even one as talented and accomplished as Rondo in a dime a dozen in this era of the NBA and unfortunately he has less and less value to us and to others as each year passes by.  And when you argue Rondo is truly elite run through the list of NBA teams and their players running the point....Lilliard, Westbrook, Williams, Paul, Curry, Holiday, Bledsoe, Dragic, Lowry, Carter-Williams, Parker, Teague, Rose, Connely..etc.

It might look something like this..

PG- Lin/Smart (whoever is better...Lin a one year rental)
SG- Bradley/Smart/Johnson (Bradley better take it on the cheap for 60 games a season)
SF -Green/Warran/Wallace
PF- Sullinger/Olynyk
C-  Asik/Humphries/Anthony

Contender? Nope  Playoff Team in the East? Yup...add Parsons and the right Free Agents and most teams in the East won't want us in the playoffs.

If the ping pong balls roll right it looks like this

PG- Rondo/Pressy
SG- Bradley/Johnson
SF- Green/Wallace/
PF- Sullinger/Olynyk
C- Embid/Anthony

Which Team is better?  Short Term?  Long Term?

We are on the same page with alot of things but I fail to understand the logic in your rondo to houston trade. Why should the Cs expect to only get back Lin and Asik? If thats the case why bother trading with the Rockets? If the best return the Cs can get for Rondo are just Asik and Lin without Parsons included then just keep Rondo and play a 3 guard rotation with Rondo, Smart and AB. Then look again to move Rondo at the deadline.

The fact that you seem to have forgotten in your worst case houston trade scenario is the ballooned contracts of Lin and Asik. Any team that trades for them is out of pocket paying them for 1 year at a star salary of around 16mill. Why trade Rondo for two over payed players if not getting additionally compensated?

[cb8883]

This is the strategy the Celtics should follow. However, Rondo will get more than Lin and Asik since a fantastic role player is worth more than two bums that don't even belong in a rotation on a rebuilding team. Houston would need to give up Parsons and the Celtics in turn would need to flip Parsons for a pick in the draft. Not sure if Parsons could net the Celtics a pick in the mid lottery however that's the smart play. With the Parsons pick you draft Smart. Rebuilding 101

[BballTim]

This is the strategy the Celtics should follow. However, Rondo will get more than Lin and Asik since a fantastic role player is worth more than two bums that don't even belong in a rotation on a rebuilding team. Houston would need to give up Parsons and the Celtics in turn would need to flip Parsons for a pick in the draft. Not sure if Parsons could net the Celtics a pick in the mid lottery however that's the smart play. With the Parsons pick you draft Smart. Rebuilding 101

  You're pretty sold on the idea that getting draft picks is an assured road to success in the nba. That's likely because you don't have much of an idea of what to expect from draft picks. You're not alone in this. This probably never occurred to you, but all of the players that you're hoping to trade for draft picks were once, in fact, draft picks. In fact if they've been in the league for a number of years they'd be classified as draft picks that turned out well.

  http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

  Take a look at that article. It looks at drafts for a 20 year period and combines the career averages for points and rebounds and assists for each player and gives the average for a given draft spot. So Lin's a bum, but his career averages are 11.9/2.6/4.8. Total those up and you get  19.3. So in terms of raw production (points/rebounds/assists), if you trade him for anything lower than a top 5 pick you're likely to draft a player that's *less* productive than Lin. That's the stark reality of the situation.

[cltc5]

The only answer I to get rid of rondo, green, maybe sully and bass, Bradley, and some dead wegjt and build through draft/trades/free agency.  Were not goin anywhere with the group we have holdin things down now.