The success of the NBA middle class in the playoffs - Zach Lowe

[Mr October]

Yeah, I think this is a pretty weak angle. Memphis made a good move trading a usage guy for a 3-and-D guy, but the case that the Rockets are failing and the Wizards are succeeding because of how they prioritize mid-tier talent is pretty weak.

The Rockets are mostly losing because their superstars are mercurial and a terrible fit with one another, not because two middling vets would be holding it down where Francisco Garcia and Terrence Jones are failing. They are also staked to a shootout strategy, which has very high variance. To make matters worse, they are running into a buzz saw in an opponent whose strengths match up perfectly with their weaknesses.

The Wizards are winning because John Wall and Bradley Beal are arriving, Nene is (somehow) healthy and playing at his peak potential for the first time in years, and Chicago is held together with duct tape. I think Marcin Gortat is a fun guy, too, but this is getting silly.

When the Pistons entered the 2004 playoffs did many people think they were going to win the title, toppling the mighty Lakers or Spurs? I think people thought they were contenders, but certainly not favorites. How about the 2011 Dallas Mavericks? I recall them having a reputation as a bunch of playoff chokers, before that run. Teams can win in ways beyond the 2-3 superstar formula.

And i dont think Lowe is suggesting that a team of skilled middle class players is enough to contend. They can just make up a little bit of the difference. All champions need some level of star power, absolutely.

And unless you have Lebron, you might need a couple really good middle class players that will cost you 5-12 million per year to go with your core stars, like Dirk or John Wall. Minimum wagers and rookies might not be enough to round out a roster. That i believe is the point of the article.

[Mr October]

You mean a 5-10 million dollar player is generally better than someone on a veteran minimum contract.  Shocking.  Stop the presses.  The World is ending.

And let's not kid ourselves here, those type players do not make teams contenders, sure they can make a difference in a series, but a team full of them is not getting anywhere near a title and probably doesn't even make the playoffs like say Phoenix (which is what they are with Bledsoe being hurt).

As an overall criticism of the piece he also only looked a few discreet examples.  I mean where was the praise for Marvin Williams of the Jazz, Aaron Afflalo & Jameer Nelson of the Magic, etc.

Not all middle class players are good contracts to have on your roster. Don't jump to extremes here. This article isn't meant to suggest all middle class contracts are good.

If Afflalo were playing for the Clippers, Thunder, or Rockets he would also probably be praised. The Rockets or Thunder in particular could really use a guy like him.

The point is that middle class contracts have become a bit of an albatross in the NBA, and perhaps unjustly so. There are more ways to build a contender outside of the 3 superstars plus a bunch of minimum wagers formula.

This isn't a revolutionary idea, but it does buck what is the trend among teams, media and fans in general.

[Mr October]

The clippers are the deepest team in the league. I really don't like particular players on their team so I can't root for them. The blazers do fall in love with jumpshots but they have the ability to attack the rim. LA is starting to play in the paint more as well. They also have great individual defenders in batum and Mathews. Lopez is the key to that team. But I remember Ainge saying he wants to build a pistons style lineup when they had their recent championship team. I do believe we need an allstar on this team that's not rondo. A bonafide scorer is a must and a dirty work type 5. Lopez is that 5 for the blazers. Deandre is that for the clippers.

The Clippers biggest weakness is that when Jordan sits, they become very small. Griffin and Davis are a little short when competing against elite big men. And Ryan Hollins is well, Ryan Hollins.

I hope the Blazers bounce the Rockets and i get a chance to see them play some more. I am a fan of Aldridge. Right now i think Griffin and Aldridge are the top 2 big men in the entire NBA, and by a margin. Marc Gasol gets in the mix as long as he is healthy.

The parity in the NBA is interesting as well. i thought parity was on its way when the last bargaining agreement was signed. I am surprised it is here so soon, and will be curious to see how long it stays around.

I agree with your Ainge desires for the celtics. A dirty work big, a wing scorer/creator, another guard that can create and score, as well as a low post threat are probably essential for success.

In theory, an Asik, Parker/Wiggins, Rondo, Sully could be that core 4 to begin building around.

[CelticG1]

How is this stuff different than any other year?

[Mr October]

How is this stuff different than any other year?

Perhaps that is also more fuel to Lowe's point. Middle class players have a history of helping teams win in the playoffs. And that is even more reason not to avoid them like a diseased appendage that needs to be chopped off or avoided.

Even with regards to the Rockets, a lot of attention is going towards the idea of adding Carmelo to the nucleus of Howard and Harden, forming another 3 superstar super team. Maybe that team is better off trading Harden for a better half court player and/or adding some elite role players.

[wdleehi]

How many of the teams he is mentioning in a position where teams want to be?  Do they have a path to being a contender or are the maxing out right now just under that level?


The Wiz are in position to keep moving up because they have young players from being bad for so long.  Guy taken in the top of the draft. 



Memphis on the other hand, I just don't see them with anywhere to go.  They are a good team, but not a contender.

[Mr October]

How many of the teams he is mentioning in a position where teams want to be?  Do they have a path to being a contender or are the maxing out right now just under that level?

The Wiz are in position to keep moving up because they have young players from being bad for so long.  Guy taken in the top of the draft. 

Memphis on the other hand, I just don't see them with anywhere to go.  They are a good team, but not a contender.

I am not ready to declare Memphis a non contender. They have been to one west finals already. They have a very good team, that if they were in the East, i would rank just behind the Heat. And in a playoff series, they have the size to give the Heat all they can handle. The grizzlies only lack an efficient wing who can create his own shot. They have everything else going for them.

And yes the Wizards have a great back court core to build around, and i dont think keeping middle class guys like Gortat, Ariza and/ or Nene is going to prevent them from progressing towards contender status.

What team really is where it wants to be roster wise? Maybe the Heat and Spurs, or perhaps the Clippers. Everyone else has some major flaw. Even the Heat are vulnerable inside, and the Spurs consistently have Father Time tapping on their door.

Again i raise the example of the 2011 Mavs. They had one superstar, and a defensive center who peaked at the right time, and a bunch of veteran role players on middle class contracts. Who expected them to win the title that year? Was it a mistake to assemble that team in the first place?

Jason Terry, Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd were integral to that title team.

[Mr October]

I am not advocating filling a roster with only middle class players. I am suggesting that perhaps having a couple really good middle class role players can actually be a good thing when building a title contender. Right now Jeff Green, Branden Bass and Gerald Wallace are holding, and in the case of Wallace clogging those middle class salary roster slots. And Rondo has yet to prove whether he has fallen to the middle class zone, or if he can regain all NBA level impact on the games.

Lots of new scenarios will be created after the lottery order is determined, and the draft day arrives.

Here is one. I could be very happy going forward with a line up of Rondo, Wiggins, Green, Sullinger, Gortat/Asik next year. Green's position could be upgraded after he and Wallace are no longer on the roster.

[CFAN38]

This goes along with subject I had posted around the trade deadline. If the Cs are set on building with Rondo the best and most likely option might be to build the strongest starting 5 possible not aim for the best 2-3 like other teams. (miami, Cs big 3, NYK with melo and amare, OKC). Try to emulate the success of the early 2000s pistons and build with 5 fringe all-stars and a talented bench.

[Moranis]

You mean a 5-10 million dollar player is generally better than someone on a veteran minimum contract.  Shocking.  Stop the presses.  The World is ending.

And let's not kid ourselves here, those type players do not make teams contenders, sure they can make a difference in a series, but a team full of them is not getting anywhere near a title and probably doesn't even make the playoffs like say Phoenix (which is what they are with Bledsoe being hurt).

As an overall criticism of the piece he also only looked a few discreet examples.  I mean where was the praise for Marvin Williams of the Jazz, Aaron Afflalo & Jameer Nelson of the Magic, etc.

Not all middle class players are good contracts to have on your roster. Don't jump to extremes here. This article isn't meant to suggest all middle class contracts are good.

If Afflalo were playing for the Clippers, Thunder, or Rockets he would also probably be praised. The Rockets or Thunder in particular could really use a guy like him.

The point is that middle class contracts have become a bit of an albatross in the NBA, and perhaps unjustly so. There are more ways to build a contender outside of the 3 superstars plus a bunch of minimum wagers formula.

This isn't a revolutionary idea, but it does buck what is the trend among teams, media and fans in general.

but they aren't albatross'.  Pretty much every team in the league has multiple players in that category of player.  When you just pick a couple to look at to try to some prove some point, you just look silly.

[pokeKingCurtis]

You mean a 5-10 million dollar player is generally better than someone on a veteran minimum contract.  Shocking.  Stop the presses.  The World is ending.

And let's not kid ourselves here, those type players do not make teams contenders, sure they can make a difference in a series, but a team full of them is not getting anywhere near a title and probably doesn't even make the playoffs like say Phoenix (which is what they are with Bledsoe being hurt).

As an overall criticism of the piece he also only looked a few discreet examples.  I mean where was the praise for Marvin Williams of the Jazz, Aaron Afflalo & Jameer Nelson of the Magic, etc.

Not all middle class players are good contracts to have on your roster. Don't jump to extremes here. This article isn't meant to suggest all middle class contracts are good.

If Afflalo were playing for the Clippers, Thunder, or Rockets he would also probably be praised. The Rockets or Thunder in particular could really use a guy like him.

The point is that middle class contracts have become a bit of an albatross in the NBA, and perhaps unjustly so. There are more ways to build a contender outside of the 3 superstars plus a bunch of minimum wagers formula.

This isn't a revolutionary idea, but it does buck what is the trend among teams, media and fans in general.

but they aren't albatross'.  Pretty much every team in the league has multiple players in that category of player.  When you just pick a couple to look at to try to some prove some point, you just look silly.

The new CBA is punitive to getting these "middling" players apparently.

That's the reason why first round picks are extra valuable right now.

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But I would say that using the Pacers and the Rockets as examples of teams not using mid-level guys well is a bit of a stretch.

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I think most of the time, taking things to the extreme tends to make you wrong.

There's no one best way of building an NBA team I'd say. The Heat have nothing but max guys and min guys, for example. While the Spurs have Splitter and a bunch of mid-guys.

[Moranis]

You mean a 5-10 million dollar player is generally better than someone on a veteran minimum contract.  Shocking.  Stop the presses.  The World is ending.

And let's not kid ourselves here, those type players do not make teams contenders, sure they can make a difference in a series, but a team full of them is not getting anywhere near a title and probably doesn't even make the playoffs like say Phoenix (which is what they are with Bledsoe being hurt).

As an overall criticism of the piece he also only looked a few discreet examples.  I mean where was the praise for Marvin Williams of the Jazz, Aaron Afflalo & Jameer Nelson of the Magic, etc.

Not all middle class players are good contracts to have on your roster. Don't jump to extremes here. This article isn't meant to suggest all middle class contracts are good.

If Afflalo were playing for the Clippers, Thunder, or Rockets he would also probably be praised. The Rockets or Thunder in particular could really use a guy like him.

The point is that middle class contracts have become a bit of an albatross in the NBA, and perhaps unjustly so. There are more ways to build a contender outside of the 3 superstars plus a bunch of minimum wagers formula.

This isn't a revolutionary idea, but it does buck what is the trend among teams, media and fans in general.

but they aren't albatross'.  Pretty much every team in the league has multiple players in that category of player.  When you just pick a couple to look at to try to some prove some point, you just look silly.

The new CBA is punitive to getting these "middling" players apparently.

That's the reason why first round picks are extra valuable right now.

----

But I would say that using the Pacers and the Rockets as examples of teams not using mid-level guys well is a bit of a stretch.

----

I think most of the time, taking things to the extreme tends to make you wrong.

There's no one best way of building an NBA team I'd say. The Heat have nothing but max guys and min guys, for example. While the Spurs have Splitter and a bunch of mid-guys.

The Heat have 2 players between 4-5 million and 2 more between 3-4 million which are not on rookie contracts and Haslem, Battier, and Allen all took clear discounts or gave up bigger money because they wanted to be in Miami (Chalmers might have as well, though with him I'm not as sure).  That also doesn't count Mike Miller who they are still paying and who they amnestied.

How about Sacramento, why no analysis of them.  I mean they have Gay on a max deal and Cousins max deal kicks in next year, so they basically have 2 max contract players.  They have Landry, Thompson, Williams, and Terry all making between 5-10 million (though Williams is still on his rookie contract).  They also have Travis Outlaw and Aaron Gray on decent size non-rookie contracts.  I suspect they will re-sign Thomas somewhere in the 5-10 million range as well.  Why not use them to show a team with these solid 5-10 million dollar veterans?  Oh wait, because it goes against the point of the value of those players.

It is a silly position taken by Lowe. 

[wdleehi]

My biggest take away from this is when you get those middle class players.


Take the Wizards.  They had already drafted Wall and Beal.  They had young potential stars in place.  Those middle class players can help fill the roster and help them grow.  They have a path to get better.




On the other side, you have the Hawks minus Hortford.  They do not have the young potential star.  They have a fringe all star and good middle class player.  They do not have a clear path for growth without the good possibility of a step back. 



I do believe (as I think many do) that the Celtics are at the point where they are looking to add those potential stars.  Any middle class player they have should be used as potential paths to get the stars. 

[Mr October]

I agree 100% wdleehi. Middle class players have value, but need to be acquired carefully and with a plan for the future. If clog your cap space with too many of them, then you become the 1990s Celtics or the 2000s Knicks.

[pokeKingCurtis]

The Heat have 2 players between 4-5 million and 2 more between 3-4 million which are not on rookie contracts and Haslem, Battier, and Allen all took clear discounts or gave up bigger money because they wanted to be in Miami (Chalmers might have as well, though with him I'm not as sure).  That also doesn't count Mike Miller who they are still paying and who they amnestied.

How about Sacramento, why no analysis of them.  I mean they have Gay on a max deal and Cousins max deal kicks in next year, so they basically have 2 max contract players.  They have Landry, Thompson, Williams, and Terry all making between 5-10 million (though Williams is still on his rookie contract).  They also have Travis Outlaw and Aaron Gray on decent size non-rookie contracts.  I suspect they will re-sign Thomas somewhere in the 5-10 million range as well.  Why not use them to show a team with these solid 5-10 million dollar veterans?  Oh wait, because it goes against the point of the value of those players.

It is a silly position taken by Lowe.

I kind of see the point he's trying to make. Rookie deals and vet min deals are all the rage now. Either that, or you get a max superstar.

But the way I see it, a rookie deal that gets you insane value for zero cost is fairly rare. As is a vet min deal that actually pays off. You do have low risk, but you also get fairly low expected return. You also only get so many tries (15 roster spots, you've also got to give your player the time to show if he's worth it).

Needless to say, finding a superstar is incredibly difficult.

Of course, if you can, you take advantage of these deals. But the reality is I don't think they're all that available.

The new CBA is still very new. We're talking about a scope of decades when it comes to building teams, a sample size of 30 each time and the data is very unscientific (an insane amount of variables that are constantly being tinkered).

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As for the Heat, I think Lowe's talking about guys in the 5-10 range.

Yes. Everyone's on a discount. This is the goodwill gained by having LeBron on your team. Though it's not like many of their role players aren't damaged goods in some way. So they're, in a way, min guys.

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Lastly, I agree, he's very guilty of cherry picking. Though there's risk involved in both large and tiny deals, there's also risk in mid-level deals. The Bucks and the Hawks in the past have been screwed by mid-level deals, I believe.

At the end of the day, we've learned nothing.