Author Topic: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan  (Read 15628 times)

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The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« on: April 21, 2014, 10:00:35 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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So . . . I'm kinda goin' a little nuts waiting for May 20th.  So many potential future scenarios for our Boston Celtics.  I just want to have a clearer idea of what's in store!  Some good ideas being batted around by my fellow posters on the forums these days.  Some not so good ideas (in my opinion). 

Here's my stab at a set of off-season events that would leave me feeling pretty satisfied with the direction of the team headed into next season.  It's kind of a combination of some ideas I've seen around here, plus one or two of my own.


Premise(s): Celtics end up with the #5 pick in the draft.  Lakers end up with the #6.


Step 1:

On draft day / night, trade Rondo to the Lakers for Steve Nash's expiring contract, Kendall Marshall, and the #6 pick (Nash will retire following a buyout agreement).

Step 2:

Also on draft day, trade Keith Bogans and Joel Anthony for Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, and the #25 pick.  Use a chunk of the Pierce Trade Exception to absorb Lin / Asik (either one).  Houston would do this if they felt they had a chance at signing Carmelo Anthony and needed to clear cap space to do so.

Nothing like helping yourself and helping to move the star player of a division rival out of the conference at the same time!

Step 3:

With the #5 pick, take Exum if he is available, or else take Marcus Smart.  With the next pick, take Aaron Gordon.  Later in the 1st round, package the #17 pick and the #25 pick to move up into the late lottery.  Potential trade partners include Orlando and Denver (likely to be sitting at #11 and #12).  Use the resulting pick on Jusuf Nurkic.


That's quite a flurry of moves on draft day, but it doesn't seem so far-fetched to me. 


Step 4:

When Avery Bradley gets an offer close to 4 years / $30 million in free agency, let him walk.  Make an offer to Jodie Meeks for 3 years / $15 million. Go as high as 3 years / $18 million.  That should be sufficient.

Meeks is a similar player to Bradley, except that he takes a large chunk of his shots from behind the arc, rather than deep in 2-point territory.  As a result, he's a much more efficient offensive player with more high-scoring-performance potential.  He also has fewer injury concerns.  His defense is not on the same level, but it's decent. 

Step 5:

Trade Bass and Vitor Faverani to a team with cap space that could use some depth at the big man spots.  Atlanta seems a likely partner -- Brand could retire or move on to a true contender this summer and Pero Antic is already kind of old.  Vitor would be a worthwhile pickup for cheap, and Bass could be a solid replacement for Brand and / or Mike Scott without taking up future cap space.


These moves would result in the following depth chart:


Lin / Marshall / Pressey
Meeks / Smart* / Babb
Green / Johnson / Wallace
Sullinger / Gordon
Asik / Olynyk / Nurkic



*or Exum


Analysis

- That team is more balanced by far than last year's team.  Asik is the defensive anchor that has been missing, and the other four members of the starting lineup can hit the three.  Meeks in particular is a deadeye. 

This would not be an especially good team, but they could be more consistently competitive, and it would give Stevens more logical pieces with which to formulate an actual offensive and defensive system, instead of odds and ends.


- There's lots of young talent on the bench.  Lots.  But having guys like Lin, Meeks, Green, and Asik playing in front of them means playing time will need to be earned, and players won't be forced into roles they aren't ready to play.  Any of the aforementioned players could transition to a bench role if necessary, also.

This ensures that Gordon won't be playing 30+ minutes at SF, a position he probably doesn't know how to play at the NBA level yet, and even more importantly, it means Smart won't be forced to become a full-time NBA point guard right off the bat.


- The contracts are set up pretty nicely.  Lin and Asik expire after next season, though neither should be unreasonably expensive to retain if the team should so choose.  Furthermore, Jeff Green will probably not exercise his player option for the fourth year of his deal, so that means he'll probably expire after next season, too.  Point being: future cap flexibility is maintained under this plan.


- This is obviously not as exciting as trading a mountain of assets for Kevin Love.  Not ending up with Wiggins, Parker, or Embiid would also be a bummer.  You can only work with what you've got, though, and Kevin Love may not be available, and the Celtics probably won't get a top 3 pick (that's just the odds).

This scenario also involves trading away our current best player who is the only thing close to an established star on the roster. 

However, there's a very real possibility that Rondo leaves the Celtics next season to go join a team that's ready to compete for a championship in the short term.  He could very well join the Lakers, in fact (he and Kobe have admitted deep admiration and respect for one another on multiple occasions).  A top 6 pick in this draft (plus a cheap backup point guard who may or may not be better than Pressey) is a great return for a player like Rondo.



Thoughts?  Love?  Hate?  Any of the steps / moves that you liked despite not being so keen on some of the others?  How would you feel about watching the resulting team?
« Last Edit: April 21, 2014, 10:06:33 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2014, 10:09:30 PM »

Offline celticmania

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Don't love it but don't hate it either. The part where we trade up for Nurkic may be unnecessary. Nurkic could maybe be had with the 17th pick. Also im not a fan of Aaron Gordon or anyone in the 5-10 range so its probably not worth trading Rondo and im not even a Rondo fan.

Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2014, 10:18:39 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Steps 1 and 2 are highly unlikely situtions that will happen

- Why in heavens will Danny help the Lakers out?  The Lakers and Celtics don't work out trades
- The Rockets will never do that trade. And the 25th pick??  Even just to take on some big salaries, they will never do such a trade.  And why is everyone set that Melo is off to the Rockets?  I think there is still a good chance he stays in New York

I like the idea of trying to sign Meeks. Likely the Lakers will resign him though, unless they like Bazemore better

Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2014, 10:20:35 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Nash has said he's not giving up any money, so don't plan on a buyout and retirement.

To clear cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony, the Rockets probably can't take back guaranteed contracts such as Joel Anthony (or Bass or Green).

I'd rather have Bradley than Meeks.

If you have to give up an asset to get another team to absorb Bass and Faverani, you are probably better off just holding onto them and letting Bass expire and holding onto Faverani as a project who has a tradeable unguaranteed contract for 2015-16.  If you need roster spots, it makes more sense to cut Pressey and Babb and keep Bass and Fav.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2014, 10:30:10 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Nash has said he's not giving up any money, so don't plan on a buyout and retirement.

To clear cap space to sign Carmelo Anthony, the Rockets probably can't take back guaranteed contracts such as Joel Anthony (or Bass or Green).

I'd rather have Bradley than Meeks.

If you have to give up an asset to get another team to absorb Bass and Faverani, you are probably better off just holding onto them and letting Bass expire and holding onto Faverani as a project who has a tradeable unguaranteed contract for 2015-16.  If you need roster spots, it makes more sense to cut Pressey and Babb and keep Bass and Fav.

- That's fine, let Nash collect his check.

- It doesn't have to be Anthony, there are other salary filler configurations that could work (e.g. Pressey + Faverani).  However, Carmelo is going to have to take a bit less than the max anyhow.

- I'd rather have Meeks than Bradley because he's an elite outside shooter and he has fewer injury concerns.  The fact that he'd almost certainly come substantially cheaper seals the deal for me.

- I don't think you'd have to give up an asset.  A team needing a veteran backup at PF that wants to be competitive next year but doesn't want to compromise future cap space -- I think Atlanta fits the bill -- would have a use for him.  Faverani is just a throw-in here, since in this scenario he wouldn't be in line to get much playing time.  However, he could be kept on as a reserve big instead.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2014, 10:33:40 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Steps 1 and 2 are highly unlikely situtions that will happen

- Why in heavens will Danny help the Lakers out?  The Lakers and Celtics don't work out trades


- The Rockets will never do that trade. And the 25th pick??  Even just to take on some big salaries, they will never do such a trade.  And why is everyone set that Melo is off to the Rockets?  I think there is still a good chance he stays in New York




Gary Payton thinks otherwise.

Honestly, the idea that NBA GMs in opposite conferences would refuse to deal with one another because of a historic rivalry is silly.


As for Houston, I think it's very likely Morey is aggressive in trying to unload Lin and Asik and make a run at Carmelo, especially if they lose in the 1st round to Portland.  The #25 pick is the price of doing business.  The Celtics are taking on a LOT of salary for the 2014-2015 season here (more than will actually be on the cap, due to Lin and Asik's back-loaded deals).
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2014, 10:37:38 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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I understand the logic behind most of these moves, although I don't agree with them. But kudos (and a TP) for attempting to forge some new trade scenarios.

Step 1:

On draft day / night, trade Rondo to the Lakers for Steve Nash's expiring contract, Kendall Marshall, and the #6 pick (Nash will retire following a buyout agreement).

The zombie trade idea that just won't die. I'm still not sure it's a great or even the best available return for Rondo. If you're convinced he's jumping ship and you don't want to deal with the drama, then I can see the motivation.

Step 2:

Also on draft day, trade Keith Bogans and Joel Anthony for Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, and the #25 pick.  Use a chunk of the Pierce Trade Exception to absorb Lin / Asik (either one).  Houston would do this if they felt they had a chance at signing Carmelo Anthony and needed to clear cap space to do so.

Here, I am convinced that something like this is going to go down. But, it has to happen after the draft. Celtics can't take on all that extra payroll and go over the luxury tax threshold during the current season/fiscal year. Easily gotten around by completing the deal after July 1.

Step 3:

With the #5 pick, take Exum if he is available, or else take Marcus Smart.  With the next pick, take Aaron Gordon.  Later in the 1st round, package the #17 pick and the #25 pick to move up into the late lottery.  Potential trade partners include Orlando and Denver (likely to be sitting at #11 and #12).  Use the resulting pick on Jusuf Nurkic.

I'm not crazy about anyone in the 5-8 range aside from Gordon. If Exum is on the board, OK, I can understand the upside. Smart leaves me cool. I mean, what's his ceiling, honestly? Kyle Lowry, if he's lucky?

Instead, leverage that #6 pick for everything it's worth. Slide down and pick up extra assets from a team desperate to move up. Shed some payroll. Really maximize the return, so that you've got Nurkic, plus additional assets, plus the #17 and #25 when you're done, so that you can then move up if necessary to get a guy like Harris or Stauskas (see below).

Step 4:

When Avery Bradley gets an offer close to 4 years / $30 million in free agency, let him walk.  Make an offer to Jodie Meeks for 3 years / $15 million. Go as high as 3 years / $18 million.  That should be sufficient.

Meeks is a similar player to Bradley, except that he takes a large chunk of his shots from behind the arc, rather than deep in 2-point territory.  As a result, he's a much more efficient offensive player with more high-scoring-performance potential.  He also has fewer injury concerns.  His defense is not on the same level, but it's decent. 

Not a fan of using MLE money longer than 2-years on a guy like Meeks. If Bradley is to be let go, find a one- or two-year stopgap vet to mentor Harris or Stauskas.

Step 5:

Trade Bass and Vitor Faverani to a team with cap space that could use some depth at the big man spots.  Atlanta seems a likely partner -- Brand could retire or move on to a true contender this summer and Pero Antic is already kind of old.  Vitor would be a worthwhile pickup for cheap, and Bass could be a solid replacement for Brand and / or Mike Scott without taking up future cap space.

Dumping Bass and Vitor to open cap space? I get the logic here, but then why have you burned cap space on Meeks in Step 4? Save that space, or save Bass' expiring, and then make an offer leveraging some of those extra assets from Step 3, future picks, and financial relief to land a piece to build around.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2014, 10:44:54 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Step 4:

When Avery Bradley gets an offer close to 4 years / $30 million in free agency, let him walk.  Make an offer to Jodie Meeks for 3 years / $15 million. Go as high as 3 years / $18 million.  That should be sufficient.

Meeks is a similar player to Bradley, except that he takes a large chunk of his shots from behind the arc, rather than deep in 2-point territory.  As a result, he's a much more efficient offensive player with more high-scoring-performance potential.  He also has fewer injury concerns.  His defense is not on the same level, but it's decent. 

Not a fan of using MLE money longer than 2-years on a guy like Meeks. If Bradley is to be let go, find a one- or two-year stopgap vet to mentor Harris or Stauskas.

Step 5:

Trade Bass and Vitor Faverani to a team with cap space that could use some depth at the big man spots.  Atlanta seems a likely partner -- Brand could retire or move on to a true contender this summer and Pero Antic is already kind of old.  Vitor would be a worthwhile pickup for cheap, and Bass could be a solid replacement for Brand and / or Mike Scott without taking up future cap space.

Dumping Bass and Vitor to open cap space? I get the logic here, but then why have you burned cap space on Meeks in Step 4? Save that space, or save Bass' expiring, and then make an offer leveraging some of those extra assets from Step 3, future picks, and financial relief to land a piece to build around.


I get where you're coming from on both.

However, for one thing I see Meeks as a legitimate starting shooting guard, and a valuable bench shooter.   Having him at $5-6 million a year is good value either way.  Also, if it's the length that is a problem, you might convince a guy like Meeks to come here for higher annual value but only 2 years (e.g. 2 years / $15 million).  That way, you're spending the same per year that you would on Bradley, but you're making half the financial (and temporal) commitment.

Second, I'm not looking to dump Bass to free up cap space.  The team will have plenty, as you say.  Rather, it's to free up playing time.  With Sullinger, Olynyk, and Gordon, the team does not need a veteran PF fighting for playing time.

Honestly, I never want to see Bass start another game in a Celtics uniform.  He's a great guy, but when he's starting for your team, that's a clear sign that your team lacks good options (and size).
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2014, 10:50:30 PM »

Offline MBunge

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- I'd rather have Meeks than Bradley because he's an elite outside shooter and he has fewer injury concerns.  The fact that he'd almost certainly come substantially cheaper seals the deal for me.

You are massively overvaluing Meeks.  He might be healthier but before a stat-inflating season playing what amounts to extended garbage time in a high scoring system, he'd established himself as a marginal NBA player.  He's also three years older than Avery, who is far exceeding what Meeks did at the same age.

If you want Meeks as part of a plan to tank for another lottery pick, sure.  But there are very good reasons he'll be a lot cheaper than Bradley.

Mike

Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2014, 10:55:35 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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However, for one thing I see Meeks as a legitimate starting shooting guard, and a valuable bench shooter.

I could accept Meeks as a bench scorer, though I want one who can play SF and come off the bench behind both Bradley and Green.  Giving Meeks a long-term contract feels like unnecessarily buying high.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2014, 10:57:56 PM »

Offline BballTim

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  I'm not sure what the goal of all that is. The team won't be terrible but is unlikely to ever be better than decent.

Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #11 on: April 21, 2014, 10:59:23 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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Lucky... When does the trade exception expire?


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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #12 on: April 21, 2014, 11:00:39 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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- I don't think you'd have to give up an asset.  A team needing a veteran backup at PF that wants to be competitive next year but doesn't want to compromise future cap space -- I think Atlanta fits the bill -- would have a use for him.  Faverani is just a throw-in here, since in this scenario he wouldn't be in line to get much playing time.  However, he could be kept on as a reserve big instead.

Injuries happen.  Guys who you had high hopes for end up having disappoint seasons.  Rookies turn out to not be ready for even a limited backup role  I can understand dumping Faverani if you need cap space or to avoid luxury tax or because you have a better use for the roster spot, but you have to squeeze value out of every asset.  A good GM will fight against giving up even a likely late second-round pick if he thinks he doesn't have to because those sometimes yield useful players, even if they usually don't.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #13 on: April 21, 2014, 11:01:45 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Lucky... When does the trade exception expire?

July 12, I believe. Plenty of time between the end of the moratorium and the expiration date to make some hay.
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Re: The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan
« Reply #14 on: April 21, 2014, 11:05:45 PM »

Offline Kane3387

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Lucky... When does the trade exception expire?

July 12, I believe. Plenty of time between the end of the moratorium and the expiration date to make some hay.

I thought the kg to Brooklyn trade was done day of the moratorium ending.


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