8 games left. I think we finish 5th worst with 29.2% chance of a top 3 pick.

[LilRip]

Probability theory and an understanding of mathematics.

When the outcome is unknown the best any human can do is achieve the best odds. I'd rather have "AA" than "KK" or "9s8s" in a hand of hold 'em.

No on knows what the winning combination is yet, that combination has not been created yet it is in the future. Thus the best position is the one which will result in the most favorable outcome in the draft lottery.

If you're going to get metaphysical and talk up how falling to the 5th for the C's led to Allen which led to KG which led to a title was the best position the day after the C's draft lottery then you're just talking hindsight and mysticism.

The idea that because the future is unknown thus we can't evaluate what's a good situation int the present is an argument against any sort of critical thought.

Thanks for the arrogance, but I know a thing or two about math, as well.

No metaphysics, I´m talking facts. Unlike you. You also didn´t answer my question. Which source do you have that turns your beliefs into knowledge? Where´s the equation?

As I said, you do not know, you believe. You believe in probability. Of course, that´s your prerogative. You can believe in probability, Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, for all I care. I like facts. Who said that if people do not believe in God, they´d believe in anything?

Here are some "facts":
We´re talking about a (hopefully) one-off event of the Celtics being in the lottery, a random event which can have any kind of outcome, even the worst position winning it all. That´s why your poker reference has no bearing on the topic at hand, as a professional poker player plays millions of hands in his career. Additionally, the chance (see: probability) for the worst record to win it all is 3x smaller than the chance for it to not win.
Since I don´t know who´s going to win it, and you don´t know who´s going to win it (even though you claim otherwise), how about we both accept that any attempt to "game" the system is futile? If we could accept this "fact" as common ground, we could finally move on from this useless exercise and focus on the stuff which actually (you know, in reality) has a tangible influence on our future records.

Unless you want to admit right now that, in fact, you do not know what the best position is, why don´t you put your money where your mouth is, and make a little bet with me? Let´s say 200 Bucks for a good cause of the winner´s choice?

Deal?
Anybody else? Bueller?

If you refuse, I´ll have to assume you were talking out of your rear end when you claimed you "know what the best position is". If that´s the case, then please keep your snake oil salesman/kitchen stochastic out of the discussion, mkay?

wait, so... you don't believe in probability? let's make a deal indeed.

I bet you a TP that the team that ends up with the 14th worst record (projected to be either the Griz, Mavs or Suns) will not end up with a top 3 pick in the draft. Furthermore, I bet an additional TP that the C's (who will likely end up in the 4th, 5th or 6th worst record) will pick higher than either the Mavs, Griz or Suns.

I may lose, but as crimson_stallion pointed out, i'll PROBABLY win. what say you? 

[BigAlTheFuture]

Utah won!

[footey]

Yep, we're officially 4th worst!! woo hoo!

[hpantazo]

Lakers are also up at the half, with Nash playing what might be his last game. This is turning into a great night for our lottery odds.

[LilRip]

The best thing you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed, because random things (like luck) will naturally play themselves out.

...and you know what the best position is?

Yes the position with the most number combinations in the lottery.

Source?

The truth is, you do not "know", you "believe".

Probability theory and an understanding of mathematics. Plus the belief that having the first choice in the draft is preferable to others. I don't see why having the player you most want is a ever a bad thing.

When the outcome is unknown the best any human can do is achieve the best odds. I'd rather have "AA" than "KK" or "9s8s" in a hand of hold 'em.

No on knows what the winning combination is yet, that combination has not been created yet it is in the future. Thus the best position is the one which will result in the most favorable outcome in the draft lottery.

If you're going to get metaphysical and talk up how falling to the 5th for the C's led to Allen which led to KG which led to a title was the best position the day after the C's draft lottery then you're just talking hindsight and mysticism.

The idea that because the future is unknown thus we can't evaluate what's a good situation int the present is an argument against any sort of critical thought.

The mathematics involved are absolutely correct but the fact is we are dealing with a basketball team not crunching numbers at a CPA's office. Yes, losing all the remaining games on purpose gives the team a better chance at securing an overall better drafting position but that's no guarantee.

Also, the strategy to lose all the remaining games has to be weighed against the human element and variable that you are telling people, who you pay to ultimately secure the franchise's ultimate goal, to win a championship, to lose. That's counter to everything that the people you employ have been taught to do their entire lives. We are dealing with human beings here. Not numbers. So the chance to maximize a draft slot though mathematically makes sense, needs to be counterbalanced with how much damage you do in managing the people you employ to do the opposite of what they are trained to do.

Its real easy to be the accountant for a company, see the numbers, find out what would be the best thing to do within the company to maximize profit, but its another thing to have to be the person and people that have to manage the people who do the jobs and get them to perform what the accountant views as so easy because its just numbers and math.

You are talking a completely different dynamic. And I think its this dynamic that so many of the arm chair GMs we have here at the site just do not get. I think the best strategy is just continue to do what they are doing. Coach to win. Play to win. Most of the vets have probably check out mentally already. Most of the youngsters are probably getting beat up after a long season. The talent level on the team is fairly low. Just keep doing what they are doing.

If they lose every game, great. If they win a couple to a bunch of games, so be it. Don't compromise the system, the management, the coaching, the decision making or the mental approach of the players. Keep that consistent. People respond to consistency. People tend to fight doing things that are against their nature.

nick, i hear you on this, but let me try and get into the "mindset" of the parties involved.

For one, I actually don't think players ever play-to-lose. They can become demotivated or play less hard, that much is true, especially when they see that their team has such low chances of winning. However, i doubt any player ever takes a shot in hopes that it will miss. At worst, I think they will not care, which in turn births a more selfish "i gotta get mine" approach towards games. Breaking plays, not playing defense, tuning out the coach, etc. That said, I don't think any player has been given instructions to go out there and lose or throw games.

Now, for players like Bayless and the rest, I get that this might be a frustrating time and I don't blame them. Their main concern, after all, should not be the C's but rather themselves. At this point, I think these guys are watching their numbers more than the W's and L's. After all, whoever signs them up to their next contract isn't going to say "Yes Player X, you were scoring like a 6th Man of the Year candidate in that last month of the season. But since your team kept losing, I think we'll sign Gabe Pruitt instead since he was part of a winning culture back in 07-08."


I think coaches, however, can afford to lose. I think this is true particularly when the two factors are present:
1. They have the backing of the front office. In our case, I absolutely think DA has Stevens' back in losing games. Plus, he's signed long-term so there's some tangible security there as well. Plus, it's not like Stevens isn't doing his job in developing guys. He can simply make questionable decisions: such as letting an opposing team go on a run without calling a timeout and then telling the guys that they have to learn to 'play through it'. He can play someone who hasn't been playing well and tell him he believes in him which is why he's giving him a 2nd chance to prove himself that night. He can not foul at the end of games. He can entrust some of his guys, like Humphries, to take game-tying long fadeaway jumpers. Some of these have actually happened.

2. You have the support of your best player (or the "franchise player"). In this case, I think Rondo understands what's going on and he likes Stevens. It also seems that RR has a good relationship with DA. I don't know everything going on backstage (in the same way how no one truly knows the psyche of the players/coaches/mgmt), but it seems like these 3 are on the same page. These 3 are also the ones in the long haul for the C's, and thus, have the most incentive to look to the future.

[Quetzalcoatl]

You know what's funny?  I was thinking about the players I don't mind still being on the team next year and I think Gerald Wallace is one of them.  I am not sure if it's because he hasn't played in a minute now so I have blocked out the bad memories, but I about 10x less frustrated with him than Jeff Green right now

[droopdog7]

Probability theory and an understanding of mathematics.

When the outcome is unknown the best any human can do is achieve the best odds. I'd rather have "AA" than "KK" or "9s8s" in a hand of hold 'em.

No on knows what the winning combination is yet, that combination has not been created yet it is in the future. Thus the best position is the one which will result in the most favorable outcome in the draft lottery.

If you're going to get metaphysical and talk up how falling to the 5th for the C's led to Allen which led to KG which led to a title was the best position the day after the C's draft lottery then you're just talking hindsight and mysticism.

The idea that because the future is unknown thus we can't evaluate what's a good situation int the present is an argument against any sort of critical thought.

Thanks for the arrogance, but I know a thing or two about math, as well.

No metaphysics, I´m talking facts. Unlike you. You also didn´t answer my question. Which source do you have that turns your beliefs into knowledge? Where´s the equation?

As I said, you do not know, you believe. You believe in probability. Of course, that´s your prerogative. You can believe in probability, Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, for all I care. I like facts. Who said that if people do not believe in God, they´d believe in anything?

Here are some "facts":
We´re talking about a (hopefully) one-off event of the Celtics being in the lottery, a random event which can have any kind of outcome, even the worst position winning it all. That´s why your poker reference has no bearing on the topic at hand, as a professional poker player plays millions of hands in his career. Additionally, the chance (see: probability) for the worst record to win it all is 3x smaller than the chance for it to not win.
Since I don´t know who´s going to win it, and you don´t know who´s going to win it (even though you claim otherwise), how about we both accept that any attempt to "game" the system is futile? If we could accept this "fact" as common ground, we could finally move on from this useless exercise and focus on the stuff which actually (you know, in reality) has a tangible influence on our future records.

Unless you want to admit right now that, in fact, you do not know what the best position is, why don´t you put your money where your mouth is, and make a little bet with me? Let´s say 200 Bucks for a good cause of the winner´s choice?

Deal?
Anybody else? Bueller?

If you refuse, I´ll have to assume you were talking out of your rear end when you claimed you "know what the best position is". If that´s the case, then please keep your snake oil salesman/kitchen stochastic out of the discussion, mkay?

wait, so... you don't believe in probability? let's make a deal indeed.

I bet you a TP that the team that ends up with the 14th worst record (projected to be either the Griz, Mavs or Suns) will not end up with a top 3 pick in the draft. Furthermore, I bet an additional TP that the C's (who will likely end up in the 4th, 5th or 6th worst record) will pick higher than either the Mavs, Griz or Suns.

I may lose, but as crimson_stallion pointed out, i'll PROBABLY win. what say you? 

Wait, I need to jump in here.  It's not easy for me to track who is saying what but whoever is comparing probabilities to the tooth fairy is absolutely off their rocker.  Or shall I say  100% off their rocker.

And yeah, I will take the same bet.  And let explain why none of us would be crazy enough to bet tufa the celts win the lottery.  Because the odds are against it.  In fact, pick any team.  Everyone of them and I would best against them winning the lottery.  You know why?  Because every team has less than 50% chance to win it.

[Casperian]

Sheesh, this thread became quite active after my post, huh? Let me clarify a few things.

First, I have to apologize to Fafnir, as I attacked him quite harshly in my post. I was pretty drunk when I wrote that, and I usually never drink anything. I am sorry, faf, you did not deserve that, have a TP.

Furthermore, the offer still stands.
No, it´s not about who ends up last, it´s for those people who claim they know which record eventually leads to the "best position to be in" (and in his second post, Fafnir explicitly said he does not). Noone does, and that´s precisely the point. There´s nothing crazy about stating that despite having a higher chance with a worse record, the actual outcome of this particular lottery could be anything from the worst record to the 14th worst record winning it.

The thing is, you´re not accounting for the transfer of theory to reality. Again, we´re talking about a one-off event here, anything could happen. If you want the Celtics to lose for a better chance at a higher pick, you´re ignoring what we just established: Nobody knows the best position to be in.

I think it is quite telling that almost everyone around here is rooting for the Celtics to go 0-82 (for the greater good, of course), yet nobody has taken me up on my offer. Apparently, Celtics fans can actively root for losses for a whole season, but are not willing to bet $200 for a good cause to back that up.

If I'm reading this correctly, you're saying that any uncertainty is exactly the same as total uncertainty?  That's really interesting, I've never met a probability denialist before.  Would you like to play cards sometime?

Oh, I´m not denying probability per se, I´m denying it´s legitimacy in certain circumstances, like one-off events with random number generators, for example.

Sure, I´m down, if we only play one round, and you can tell me before the flop who´s taking the pot. I´ll even show you my hand.

It's pretty simple.

Lets say there are 6 boxes on the table in front of you, and each of these boxes contains a rubber ball.  4 of the boxes contain a red ball each, 2 of the boxes contain a blue ball each.

The aim is that you need to pick a colour, then pick a box.  If the colour of the ball inside that box matches the colour you guessed at the start, you get to keep your house plus you win a new car on top.  If the colour is wrong, you lose your house and end up living on the street.


The boxes are jumbled in a randomised order so you have no idea which box has which ball.

If you had to choose red or blue, which would you choose?

Personally, I would choose red.

So, you´re willing to bet your house on that game? For a new car? How about a year of your life? How about a year of the Celtics´ life? Because that´s pretty much the actual bet you´re taking here.

The correct answer is not "Red", the correct answer is "No thanks, and now leave my house before I call the cops".

[PhoSita]

So, you´re willing to bet your house on that game? For a new car? How about a year of your life? How about a year of the Celtics´ life? Because that´s pretty much the actual bet you´re taking here.

The correct answer is not "Red", the correct answer is "No thanks, and now leave my house before I call the cops".

Is this box example supposed to represent the lottery?

Because if so, it's pretty off the mark.


The Celtics are going to finish with a bottom 5-6 record.  Meaning they might get a "new car" (i.e. a top 3 pick).  Or, they might just get a new motorcycle, a new refrigerator, or a new set of bedroom furniture, instead.

We don't know what the Celtics will get from the lottery.  But the chances are VERY good that it won't be nothing.  It certainly won't result in the Celtics losing their proverbial "house."  Unless by "house" you mean Rondo, in which case they're losing him sometime in the next year to trade or free agency unless they can find a way to get a lot better really fast.  But that would have happened anyway.

What the Celtics gave up to get where they are now is a handful of players who would have only allowed them to finish with 35-45 wins and lose in the 1st round of the playoffs this season, exchanging that type of season for the messy, difficult season we've been enduring (but the alternative would have been painful, too).  We also got to give lots of minutes to players who might actually be with the team in 2 or 3 years.

[Casperian]

Is this box example supposed to represent the lottery?

Because if so, it's pretty off the mark.

I guess. You have to ask crimson_stallion, who came up with this example. I just ran with it for argument´s sake.

And yes, it´s pretty off the mark.

[footey]

Sheesh, this thread became quite active after my post, huh? Let me clarify a few things.

First, I have to apologize to Fafnir, as I attacked him quite harshly in my post. I was pretty drunk when I wrote that, and I usually never drink anything. I am sorry, faf, you did not deserve that, have a TP.

Furthermore, the offer still stands.
No, it´s not about who ends up last, it´s for those people who claim they know which record eventually leads to the "best position to be in" (and in his second post, Fafnir explicitly said he does not). Noone does, and that´s precisely the point. There´s nothing crazy about stating that despite having a higher chance with a worse record, the actual outcome of this particular lottery could be anything from the worst record to the 14th worst record winning it.

The thing is, you´re not accounting for the transfer of theory to reality. Again, we´re talking about a one-off event here, anything could happen. If you want the Celtics to lose for a better chance at a higher pick, you´re ignoring what we just established: Nobody knows the best position to be in.

I think it is quite telling that almost everyone around here is rooting for the Celtics to go 0-82 (for the greater good, of course), yet nobody has taken me up on my offer. Apparently, Celtics fans can actively root for losses for a whole season, but are not willing to bet $200 for a good cause to back that up.

If I'm reading this correctly, you're saying that any uncertainty is exactly the same as total uncertainty?  That's really interesting, I've never met a probability denialist before.  Would you like to play cards sometime?

Oh, I´m not denying probability per se, I´m denying it´s legitimacy in certain circumstances, like one-off events with random number generators, for example.

Sure, I´m down, if we only play one round, and you can tell me before the flop who´s taking the pot. I´ll even show you my hand.

It's pretty simple.

Lets say there are 6 boxes on the table in front of you, and each of these boxes contains a rubber ball.  4 of the boxes contain a red ball each, 2 of the boxes contain a blue ball each.

The aim is that you need to pick a colour, then pick a box.  If the colour of the ball inside that box matches the colour you guessed at the start, you get to keep your house plus you win a new car on top.  If the colour is wrong, you lose your house and end up living on the street.


The boxes are jumbled in a randomised order so you have no idea which box has which ball.

If you had to choose red or blue, which would you choose?

Personally, I would choose red.

So, you´re willing to bet your house on that game? For a new car? How about a year of your life? How about a year of the Celtics´ life? Because that´s pretty much the actual bet you´re taking here.

The correct answer is not "Red", the correct answer is "No thanks, and now leave my house before I call the cops".

I think you're still drinking.

[cman88]

soo we just lost to the worst team in the league, and now Humphries/bradley are out. no Rondo TN...so hopefully another loss the end of the season is setting up nicely for us.

at this point I cant see why anyone would root for wins. we are a horrible team, no chance of making the playoffs. might as well lose these last few games and get a high prospect who hopefully could turn into a cornerstone player

[Smokeeye123]

As long as Pressey doesn't start randomly sinking in threes on a regular next game and Jeff Green decides to live up ti his potential we SHOULD lose to the Pistons.

Pistons are a dreadful team though. After that though the Hawks should bring their A game since they are fighting for a playoff spot. Then we verse the Bobcats who are a respectable team would should beat us on paper. Then we get the Cavs on a back to back who may or may not be fighting for a playoff spot at that point.

Cross your fingers Celtics fans, the luck of the Irish could give us the 4th spot.

[Fafnir]

Nick all I was saying was that the best position in the lottery for this team to be in is to have the most ping pong balls. I didn't mean more broadly that we should have tanked "harder" this year by selling assets for nothing like the 76ers or that we should outright throw games.

Overall I believe you need to enhance the value of your team and develop the players you plan on being part of the teams future. I think the C's have made a pretty reasonable approach towards that. They're playing the young guys rotation minutes, but not force feeding them from what i can tell, and also trying to protect/rehab Rondo. Meanwhile Danny has cleared future cap room, acquired some extra picks for Crawford/taking Anthony, and because of the talent deficiet we've lost a bunch of games.

Though clearly the team has checked out at this point, they just want the season over so I expect rather inconsistent effort from night to night. Which hasn't been the case overall for the majority of the season.

[Roy H.]

It's probably a couple of pages too late, but some of the debate here is crossing the line.  As our rules state:

Respect each other at all times. ...  While we encourage lively debate there is no reason for anyone to disrespect a fellow poster's ideas.

Keep all commentary civil, and be courteous to all. Please watch your tone. Constructive criticism is welcome, but insults directed towards other users or the site staff will not be tolerated.   Coarse / insulting / gloating / condescending / snarky language is not allowed under any circumstances.

Nobody scores points in a debate by talking down to one another.  It makes people disregard the argument you're making, and causes them to focus on your lack of civility.  Let's all try to do better.