Parker is the Safest Pick

[Galeto]

Parker is playing with no lift against Virginia. He also seems winded and it's affecting his ability to get and keep a body on his man and grab defensive rebounds. He's not safe if he plays like a C- athlete. I think it's due to conditioning but it's concerning.

Isn't this at least their 3rd game in as many days?  With all the double teams thrown his way I wouldn't be surprised if he is a little winded.

Could be but he's looked physically underwhelming for a long time now.  He gets blocked a lot, doesn't cleanly drive by defenders, has limited hang time and explosiveness.  Akil Mitchell absolutely dominated Parker on defense and he's an undersized PF and a non-prospect.  A potential no.1 pick with a complete scorer's game can't let that happen. 

Parker looks athletic in the open court. He's fast and with build up speed, he can get up pretty high.  But in the half court, he's played like a well-below average athlete for most of the season.  I mean, he's been athletically overwhelmed in the paint in college.  That does not bode well.

All this is going to hinge on how much better conditioning improves his athleticism.   

[Galeto]

Parker is having an absolutely horrific game against Mercer.  He started off like his usual self by looking to score every single dang time he touched the ball.  Unfortunately his shot has not been falling and his lift inside the paint is still not there.  Then on defense, it's been really bad.  I've thought his lateral quickness was pretty good but he's been blown by on every single dribble drive attempt.  His help defense has been similarly awful as he's been late/inattentive to rotate and on one occasion, came out so recklessly to trap that the guard "split" the trap like Parker wasn't even there and drove for a floater. 

He's got to be the most frustrating prospect because who knows what he'd look like with better conditioning.

[Galeto]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.  Bowing out of the tournament in the first round with a rough game doesn't help but it's more than that as he hasn't looked like a elite prospect in terms of decision making and athleticism for a while even though his stats have been pretty good.  Being in shape in workouts are going to be huge for him, which is sort of crazy for a player who has been highly touted for a long time with plenty of game tape to go on.

Wiggins and Embiid have to be above him.  I bet Exum will be too.  His profile--6'5 to 6'6, lean, lengthy, rangy prototypical basketball player body, passer, transition threat, dribble penetrator, above average athleticism or more, possible point guard--pops much more on paper than Parker's.  Potential ceiling weighs really heavily that high in the draft.  It might come down to whether Exum and his agent find the teams selecting fourth or fifth more appealing and adjusts his workout schedule accordingly.  Since workouts are going to be huge for a player with such limited exposure, that could be the difference.

Parker and Randle have somewhat similar warts with questions about their defense and ability to finish in the paint.  A team could easily prefer Randle more.  If Smart has a huge tournament, he could possibly overtake Parker as well.

[Mr October]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.  Bowing out of the tournament in the first round with a rough game doesn't help but it's more than that as he hasn't looked like a elite prospect in terms of decision making and athleticism for a while even though his stats have been pretty good.  Being in shape in workouts are going to be huge for him, which is sort of crazy for a player who has been highly touted for a long time with plenty of game tape to go on.

Wiggins and Embiid have to be above him.  I bet Exum will be too.  His profile--6'5 to 6'6, lean, lengthy, rangy prototypical basketball player body, passer, transition threat, dribble penetrator, above average athleticism or more, possible point guard--pops much more on paper than Parker's.  Potential ceiling weighs really heavily that high in the draft.  It might come down to whether Exum and his agent find the teams selecting fourth or fifth more appealing and adjusts his workout schedule accordingly.  Since workouts are going to be huge for a player with such limited exposure, that could be the difference.

Parker and Randle have somewhat similar warts with questions about their defense and ability to finish in the paint.  A team could easily prefer Randle more.  If Smart has a huge tournament, he could possibly overtake Parker as well.

For most teams i think that the top 4 are a lock in some order. Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and Exum. Considering Embiid's questionable back, I think Wiggins is the safest pick.

I agree that a surprise player or 2 has a chance to crack that 4. I too would pick Randle and Smart. A big tournament performance could help them a lot, and then of course the teams picking in the top 4 would have to have a need at their position.

Other guys that could rise if they lead their teams on a big run are Ennis and Harris, moving from the 11-15 group to the 6-10 group.

[KGs Knee]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.

It's impossible.

Prisoner of the moment, knee-jerk reaction if I ever saw one.

Drafting based on tournament performance is usually a fools errand.

[indeedproceed]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.

It's impossible.

Prisoner of the moment, knee-jerk reaction if I ever saw one.

Drafting based on tournament performance is usually a fools errand.

Agree that its an overreaction, but until I hear otherwise, I'm putting money that he doesn't come out this year now. I can't imagine that this is the impression he wanted to leave at Duke. He wanted to go out like Carmelo Anthony, now he'd be leaving like Melo, Fab.

[MBunge]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.

It's impossible.

Prisoner of the moment, knee-jerk reaction if I ever saw one.

Drafting based on tournament performance is usually a fools errand.

Agree that its an overreaction, but until I hear otherwise, I'm putting money that he doesn't come out this year now. I can't imagine that this is the impression he wanted to leave at Duke. He wanted to go out like Carmelo Anthony, now he'd be leaving like Melo, Fab.

Given that he's still got that Mormon mission thing hanging over him, this is probably his only year at Duke either way.  If he's going to do it, now would be the normal time religiously and the obvious time as far as his future basketball career.  If he's not going to do it, he's not passing on it to come back to Duke.

Mike

[Tr1boy]

Pathetic performance by parker. Clearly not ready for the nba.

[Donoghus]

Pathetic performance by parker. Clearly not ready for the nba.

I'd like to think this is sarcasm but, I'm guessing in this instance, it actually isn't. 

[Tr1boy]

Pathetic performance by parker. Clearly not ready for the nba.

I'd like to think this is sarcasm but, I'm guessing in this instance, it actually isn't. 

Its not bc it was a pathetic performance.  A potential top 3 player playing the way he did vs a mediocre team in one of the most important tourneys is sad

I pray the celts dont draft him. Rather have wiggins or even gordon. Gordon is going to turn it on in MM like he is doing right now

[Donoghus]

Pathetic performance by parker. Clearly not ready for the nba.

I'd like to think this is sarcasm but, I'm guessing in this instance, it actually isn't. 

Its not bc it was a pathetic performance.  A potential top 3 player playing the way he did vs a mediocre team in one of the most important tourneys is sad

I pray the celts dont draft him. Rather have wiggins or even gordon. Gordon is going to turn it on in MM like he is doing right now

Yup.  Thought so.

[Tr1boy]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.

It's impossible.

Prisoner of the moment, knee-jerk reaction if I ever saw one.

Drafting based on tournament performance is usually a fools errand.

List me some players who had mediocre to poor tourney showings that did well/is doing well in the nba.

Some guys that do well in the tourney obviously are flukes, but alot of guys like dwade, durant have done great , proving they excell in high level stress games, which is how tye nba is like every game

[Galeto]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.

It's impossible.

Prisoner of the moment, knee-jerk reaction if I ever saw one.

Drafting based on tournament performance is usually a fools errand.

Chances are that he's not going before Wiggins or Embiid so 3 is probably the earliest he can go. There's no reason why Exum couldn't jump Parker so dropping to the fourth pick isn't unrealistic.  Randle's been knocked but the distance between him and Parker isn't huge so he could "drop" to five.  Between him and Smart, it might come down to what the team with the fifth pick has. Smart is a good prospect in his own right with point guard skills and very good defense as his calling cards.  It wouldn't be an upset for him to go before Parker.  From there, it's hard to see anybody else leap Parker.

[Tr1boy]

It's not impossible to see Parker going as low as 6th anymore.

It's impossible.

Prisoner of the moment, knee-jerk reaction if I ever saw one.

Drafting based on tournament performance is usually a fools errand.

Chances are that he's not going before Wiggins or Embiid so 3 is probably the earliest he can go. There's no reason why Exum couldn't jump Parker so dropping to the fourth pick isn't unrealistic.  Randle's been knocked but the distance between him and Parker isn't huge so he could "drop" to five.  Between him and Smart, it might come down to what the team with the fifth pick has. Smart is a good prospect in his own right with point guard skills and very good defense as his calling cards.  It wouldn't be an upset for him to go before Parker.  From there, it's hard to see anybody else leap Parker.

Definitely.

[D.o.s.]

I think the gap between Randle and Parker is larger than you guys are anticipating.