would you be satisfied with a 2014 top 5 pick

[Tr1boy]

It's really about the top 4 not 5. After Embiid, Wiggins,Parker, and Exum there is a huge drop off. I'm sorry, but Randle is out of his league compared to the top 4. I know  in college he looks great, but trust me he has a ceiling in the NBA. The top 4 are potential franchise, game changing, all stars. I'm confident when the draft nears and all the players have been worked out, analyzed, broken down to nauseam, they will be the consensus top 4 picks.

I'd be willing to bet that five years from now the consensus top four players taken in the 2014 NBA draft will not all come from the top four (or even five) picks.

I'll take you up on that bet sir. Just one change. Out of Embiid,Parker,Wiggins, and Exum give me 3 of those to be in the consensus top 4 players in 5 years. The law of averages tell me that with injuries,an act of god, or whatever 1 probably will have problems. By the way, Exum is the most sure fire bet out of all the players in this years draft to be a superstar (Take THAT TO THE BANK)

Hey guys take a chill pill. Dang lol

Exum though could end up being the best pick out of everyone.

The top three as ppl have it have their flaws too

Embiid- a little raw, lost at times. Not alot of exprience playing ball

Wiggins- fg stats has been mediocre for the yr, at times passive and doesnt have elite feel for the game or motor

Parker - mediocre defender due to mediocre body shape. Maybe he might be able to get a pro body, maybe not. Tweener. If he will go on a mission. I mean who knows he might never be back again


Randle to me is a nice looking prospect. His wingspan might not be exceptional but he is strong as an ox and has a nice vertical leap. His consistent production and rebounding capabilities are something worth being excited about for the next level.

[CoachBo]

Don't agree at all about Parker's defense. He has the feet and the want-to to be an above-average defender. The only thing that worries me about him is the mission.

I don't like Exum that much. Smart is a first-class headcase.

[Tr1boy]

Don't agree at all about Parker's defense. He has the feet and the want-to to be an above-average defender. The only thing that worries me about him is the mission.

I don't like Exum that much. Smart is a first-class headcase.

Instead of stating you dont like exum, what are the reasons why?

Parker is willing but doesnt mean he is good. He has trouble guarding lots of college sfs and pf then how is he going to handle nba players?

[JBcat]

I've mentioned in a couple different threads of a backup plan if we don't land a top 4 pick.  Unless if Ainge thinks Vonleh can play center we could do this.  One of the Jazz, Kings, Bucks, 76'rs , or Magic have a very good chance of landing the first pick grabbing Embiid, while already having a talented young center.  I would gladly take any of those young centers for some sort package involving our pick it's the the 5th pick or beyond.

[mmmmm]

I believe it is possible to build a contender without a top five pick.

Without drafting one, without using the pick in a trade, or without having one on your roster?

Are the Pacers a contender this year? 

And I don't think you should count acquiring a former top five pick via trade or free agency, either.  It is possible- reasonable even- for the Celtics to be able to build a contender in the next few years without ever picking in the top five, whether they keep the player or trade the pick.

I figured you'd cite the Pacers, but really I just wanted to know if you'd count having a top 5 pick and trading it away counted as "building a contender without a top five pick."

Well, it's definitely been possible doing it the opposite way (not drafting in the top-5, but at some point trading (or using free agency) to _bring_ a "top 5 pick" talent onto the team).   That has been the most common pattern to get teams over the hump from 'playoff team' to 'title contender'.

Some useful truisms are:

1) Almost all title winning teams have at least a couple of top-5-drafted players as key players.  Duh-uh.  You need top talent to win.

2) The vast majority of top-5-drafted talent will end up moving to other teams before they end up on a contender.

3) Only a couple of top-5-drafted players in recent decades have managed to contribute to winning the title on the team that drafted them.

While I'm eager and hopeful that we get a good draft spot and get great value out of this draft, I'm simply not going to stress out over it if we end up picking, say, 10th or whatever.   The historical trends are that having a top-5 pick isn't that big of a deal towards getting back to a title.   I won't complain if we get one.  But it won't be the end of the world if we don't.

If we don't end up with a top pick, Danny will just have to do some trade magic at some point to get that guy from some other team.   Neither path back to the finals is necessarily going to be faster or slower.

[Tr1boy]

Another question. Will the 1-5 position ultimately be dictated by how each player (1-7) does in the upcoming tournament?

What if Aaron Gordon's Arizona wins the tourney and he is pretty much the MVP, would that change your mind about him?

What if Embiid is a no show in the tourney, is he still considered #1 worthy?

Usually but not always players that have helped their teams get far in the Tourney have ended up being safe bet for the nba, like Dwade carrying marquette to the final 8.

[footey]

there is a top 4 and then randle. He has bust written all over him. If we get the 5th pick, I suspect Danny will try to trade down and grab a kid like Harris. I would be shocked if he drafted Randle.

[KGs Knee]

Another question. Will the 1-5 position ultimately be dictated by how each player (1-7) does in the upcoming tournament?

What if Aaron Gordon's Arizona wins the tourney and he is pretty much the MVP, would that change your mind about him?

What if Embiid is a no show in the tourney, is he still considered #1 worthy?

Usually but not always players that have helped their teams get far in the Tourney have ended up being safe bet for the nba, like Dwade carrying marquette to the final 8.

I'd say placing too much emphasis on tourney performance is a good way to draft a limited NBA player.  Many of the small guards dominate in the tourney, but struggle in the NBA.  Occasionally you find a DWade.  Think Peyton Siva, Jay Williams, Tyus Edney, etc.. (Those are just names off the top of my head, there's many more).

[Tr1boy]

Another question. Will the 1-5 position ultimately be dictated by how each player (1-7) does in the upcoming tournament?

What if Aaron Gordon's Arizona wins the tourney and he is pretty much the MVP, would that change your mind about him?

What if Embiid is a no show in the tourney, is he still considered #1 worthy?

Usually but not always players that have helped their teams get far in the Tourney have ended up being safe bet for the nba, like Dwade carrying marquette to the final 8.

I'd say placing too much emphasis on tourney performance is a good way to draft a limited NBA player.  Many of the small guards dominate in the tourney, but struggle in the NBA.  Occasionally you find a DWade.  Think Peyton Siva, Jay Williams, Tyus Edney, etc.. (Those are just names off the top of my head, there's many more).

Siva hasn't even got a chance to play and is only a rookie. Too early to say.  Jay Williams career was cut short due an accident.  Edney, ok fine

But i'm not talking about 2nd round talent + tourney. I'm talking about 1st round 1-7 talent + tourney


 

[cman88]

you know who wiggins kind of reminds me of? Jeff Green...all the physical tools to be an athletic freak in the NBA.

but just lacks that killer instinct.

[Tr1boy]

you know who wiggins kind of reminds me of? Jeff Green...all the physical tools to be an athletic freak in the NBA.

but just lacks that killer instinct.

I agree. But Wiggins already has a better jump shot and a mid range game, something jeff green still doesn't have today. 

Some mock sights compare Wiggins to Pippen and that is not a bad example. A super #2. 

I like Wiggins but if the season ended today his stats don't give you confidence that he is going to be "special" in the nba. Look at jordan, dwade in their first years in college with their near 50 per shooting stats.  It was not all too difficult and when they really tried, they were near impossible to stop one on one. Wiggins hopefully can show this in the tourney

[BballTim]

Unlike the year duncan was avail (needed 1st pick before drastic drop) or durant/oden draft year (top 2 or drastic drop in talent)

The 2014 draft is deep and franchise calibre talent avail up to the 5th pick. Top 5 likely will be Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle(not exact order). As long as we get a chance to draft one of these talented youngsters would you be satisfied unlike the past draft failures with the inability to draft Duncan or Oden/Durant?

Or would we absolutely need a top 3 pick(wiggins,parker,embiid) ? Or you see nice talent a team can build around up to the 8th pick (including smart, vonleh,gordon)?

This is going to be a very important draft for us. From the lottery position results day to the actual draft night, its going to be uneasy/exciting times.

  The odds of any one of those players being a Duncan is slim. The odds on 5 players being anywhere close to that level are probably in the "Jeff Green wins back to back MVPs" range, in fact probably worse than that.

[Tr1boy]

Unlike the year duncan was avail (needed 1st pick before drastic drop) or durant/oden draft year (top 2 or drastic drop in talent)

The 2014 draft is deep and franchise calibre talent avail up to the 5th pick. Top 5 likely will be Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle(not exact order). As long as we get a chance to draft one of these talented youngsters would you be satisfied unlike the past draft failures with the inability to draft Duncan or Oden/Durant?

Or would we absolutely need a top 3 pick(wiggins,parker,embiid) ? Or you see nice talent a team can build around up to the 8th pick (including smart, vonleh,gordon)?

This is going to be a very important draft for us. From the lottery position results day to the actual draft night, its going to be uneasy/exciting times.

  The odds of any one of those players being a Duncan is slim. The odds on 5 players being anywhere close to that level are probably in the "Jeff Green wins back to back MVPs" range, in fact probably worse than that.

Wait are you stating that the top 5 players in this upcoming draft won't be as good as Green is today?

[BballTim]

Unlike the year duncan was avail (needed 1st pick before drastic drop) or durant/oden draft year (top 2 or drastic drop in talent)

The 2014 draft is deep and franchise calibre talent avail up to the 5th pick. Top 5 likely will be Embiid, Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle(not exact order). As long as we get a chance to draft one of these talented youngsters would you be satisfied unlike the past draft failures with the inability to draft Duncan or Oden/Durant?

Or would we absolutely need a top 3 pick(wiggins,parker,embiid) ? Or you see nice talent a team can build around up to the 8th pick (including smart, vonleh,gordon)?

This is going to be a very important draft for us. From the lottery position results day to the actual draft night, its going to be uneasy/exciting times.

  The odds of any one of those players being a Duncan is slim. The odds on 5 players being anywhere close to that level are probably in the "Jeff Green wins back to back MVPs" range, in fact probably worse than that.

Wait are you stating that the top 5 players in this upcoming draft won't be as good as Green is today?

  Haha.

[chambers]

I believe it is possible to build a contender without a top five pick.

Without drafting one, without using the pick in a trade, or without having one on your roster?

Are the Pacers a contender this year? 

And I don't think you should count acquiring a former top five pick via trade or free agency, either.  It is possible- reasonable even- for the Celtics to be able to build a contender in the next few years without ever picking in the top five, whether they keep the player or trade the pick.

I figured you'd cite the Pacers, but really I just wanted to know if you'd count having a top 5 pick and trading it away counted as "building a contender without a top five pick."

Well, it's definitely been possible doing it the opposite way (not drafting in the top-5, but at some point trading (or using free agency) to _bring_ a "top 5 pick" talent onto the team).   That has been the most common pattern to get teams over the hump from 'playoff team' to 'title contender'.

Some useful truisms are:

1) Almost all title winning teams have at least a couple of top-5-drafted players as key players.  Duh-uh.  You need top talent to win.

2) The vast majority of top-5-drafted talent will end up moving to other teams before they end up on a contender.

3) Only a couple of top-5-drafted players in recent decades have managed to contribute to winning the title on the team that drafted them.

While I'm eager and hopeful that we get a good draft spot and get great value out of this draft, I'm simply not going to stress out over it if we end up picking, say, 10th or whatever.   The historical trends are that having a top-5 pick isn't that big of a deal towards getting back to a title.   I won't complain if we get one.  But it won't be the end of the world if we don't.

If we don't end up with a top pick, Danny will just have to do some trade magic at some point to get that guy from some other team.   Neither path back to the finals is necessarily going to be faster or slower.

I agree with most of your points here, except I think most people don't realize:

1)how many championship teams or teams that reach the NBA finals do so with at least one of their own top 5-10 picks.
2)How difficult it is to actually win an NBA championship...when only the very best franchises in the NBA control the NBA championship trophy cabinet. How many franchises have won the trophy in the last 25 years?

We're talking about top 5 picks here specifically in this topic, but looking at points 2 and 3 you made, if you change the pick to top 10, pretty much every title team in the last 20 years has at least their own top 10 drafted player and has added to that core.
If you re-worded point 3, most of those guys who left their team were  pretty much conference finals or NBA finals appearance guys who's management could never build around them due to luck or bad choices etc..

How many of the last 20 years of championships have not been won by teams with their own top 5 or 10 pick (franchise guys in most cases- bench All Stars in worst cases) in place already?

Stars to attract stars and developing your own players is key, but....

Looking at the last 20 seasons of NBA champions and NBA finalists, you'll notice that every team that won or made the finals had their own drafted top 10 pick, The exceptions are the Pistons and Kobe on the Lakers- again another example where he went 14th but if he had to play in college was a top 5 prospect quite easily. They acquired the pick (player)by trading Divac.

Anyway, the list of those home-drafted NBA finalist/champs is:

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x1 2 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Draft day trade by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 2x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 2x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)

The math holds a monstrous truism that without your own top 5 or 10 draft pick in place (who's become an All Star), the odds are STACKED against you.

Danny is an almost genius so if anyone can build a contender against the odds, it's him. I've also heard him say that you need multiple franchise level players to win an NBA championship.

I too am hoping for a top 3 or 5 pick and want Jabari Parker. (I think that's who Ainge takes if he can't swing a trade for an established star.)
Because without one the odds are bleak. Not impossible but very tough indeed.

Basic recipe for NBA title?
1) top 10 draft pick that actually turns into top 10 player.
2) elite front office management on all levels. Scouting, cap control, trades, player development.
3) top 5 coach or coach with ability to become top 5 coach.
4) signing other franchise caliber or elite All Star caliber players to help your top 10 player who foundation has been built around over multiple years.
5) Luck more luck particularly injuries to your stars and injuries to other teams elite players.