And the #1 pick goes to...

[droopdog7]

On a side-note, I see the celtics have only had the #1 pick one time (1950).  The lakers, who have won more consistently, have had it multiple times.

Go figure.

[fairweatherfan]

On a side-note, I see the celtics have only had the #1 pick one time (1950).  The lakers, who have won more consistently, have had it multiple times.

Go figure.

Gotta factor in trades - we had the #1 pick in 1980 but traded it for Parish and the #3.  And the Lakers got the 79 and 82 1sts via trade too.

[goCeltics]

example of why the lotto is a failed system, it no way gives a disincentive to losing, it probably even encourages it as more team try to lose to improve their lotto odds, for example  normally the 5th or 6th worst team wouldn't be too fused about losing some extra games to get the 3rd or fourth worst record, however in the lotto system is really incentives these teams to lose to get the lower seed so they'll get a better shot at the number one overall, which is a big, big carrot to wave at lot of bad teams

The reason they have it, is because stern and co love gimmicks that attract tv ratings, and having a lotto ceremony does that, plus it gives stern an opportunity to hog the limelight which he always loved, as witnessed by his performance in last years draft.

[LilRip]

example of why the lotto is a failed system, it no way gives a disincentive to losing, it probably even encourages it as more team try to lose to improve their lotto odds, for example  normally the 5th or 6th worst team wouldn't be too fused about losing some extra games to get the 3rd or fourth worst record, however in the lotto system is really incentives these teams to lose to get the lower seed so they'll get a better shot at the number one overall, which is a big, big carrot to wave at lot of bad teams

The reason they have it, is because stern and co love gimmicks that attract tv ratings, and having a lotto ceremony does that, plus it gives stern an opportunity to hog the limelight which he always loved, as witnessed by his performance in last years draft.

i disagree. if anything, the lotto actually protects against teams racing to the bottom. Yes, they have increased odds, but the best ever odds a team will ever get to landing the #1 pick is 25%. The fact that the worst team hardly lands the #1 pick shows that the WL record isn't everything.

Now, it just so happens that this year's draft has 3 #1-worthy picks and so that 25% shoots up dramatically because a team would likely be happy with any of the top 3.

[D.o.s.]

Even with a number 1 pick I'm not expecting miracles next season.  We won the championship with 3 hall of fame players in their prime.  We would have Rondo and still a very young team.  Not even Durant or Lebron led their team very far first go around.  I still think even with a number one pick we might still need 2 or years to put all the pieces together.

On the other hand, Carmelo took his team from 17-65 to 43-39 and a playoff spot with (sophomore) Nene, Juwan Howard, (sophomore) Birdman and Marcus Camby.

In the West.

[chambers]

Looks like the lakers are officially in tank mode as well.  Quite honestly, their roster is worse than ours without kobe.  And you know, if they are close enough, somehow some way they will end up with the #1 pick.  Just watch.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/28/report-kobe-bryant-out-another-two-weeks-to-month-with-knee-fracture/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

It would be a fun development in the NBA for the
Lakers and Celtics to get the first two picks, drafting two franchise players who become rivals.

that would be sick...

jabari parker to the celtics, andrew wiggins to the lakers.

This would be a too good to be true story that would send clear accusations of the lottery being fixed at the NBA. However, it would be a perfectly uplifting story for the NBA to resurrect its two greatest franchises.

If the Lakers and Celtics end up having the two worst records then it wouldn't have to be a conspiracy just the most probably option playing out.

...perhaps as a result of having the two best GMs in the NBA too.

[kraidstar]

if the league wants to snuff out the conspiracy theories regarding the lottery, they could just, you know, do away with it.
teams are going to tank no matter what.
who will win the lottery? i actually think we're due. we got hosed in 07, the c's management will riot if things don't go better this time.
anyone ever watch the video of the 07 lottery? when silver announces that the c's have the 5th pick, heinsohn has a little evil chuckle after the pick is announced. really weird vibe in that room.

[AidaCelt]

example of why the lotto is a failed system, it no way gives a disincentive to losing, it probably even encourages it as more team try to lose to improve their lotto odds, for example  normally the 5th or 6th worst team wouldn't be too fused about losing some extra games to get the 3rd or fourth worst record, however in the lotto system is really incentives these teams to lose to get the lower seed so they'll get a better shot at the number one overall, which is a big, big carrot to wave at lot of bad teams

The reason they have it, is because stern and co love gimmicks that attract tv ratings, and having a lotto ceremony does that, plus it gives stern an opportunity to hog the limelight which he always loved, as witnessed by his performance in last years draft.

i disagree. if anything, the lotto actually protects against teams racing to the bottom. Yes, they have increased odds, but the best ever odds a team will ever get to landing the #1 pick is 25%. The fact that the worst team hardly lands the #1 pick shows that the WL record isn't everything.

Now, it just so happens that this year's draft has 3 #1-worthy picks and so that 25% shoots up dramatically because a team would likely be happy with any of the top 3.

100% agreed and I don't know why such a big deal is made of the current system. Do you think the NFL's system is better? The worst team automatically gets the #1 pick. That type of system in basketball would encourage losing. I have no issue with the current system except for maybe altering the odds a little

[D.o.s.]

People who like simple systems tend to favor things like the NFL's draft.

[get_banners]

i hate the lottery system. yeah, it sort of discourages "tanking", but not really, as teams still haven incentives to lose as many games as possible to give themselves the best shot of winning. so...it doesn't really address the main criticism of a record-based draft. of course...teams might just stink. that's the real flaw. the worst team in the league...is often the worst team in the league, tanking or not. and yet, they only have a 25% chance of landing the top pick. that's devastating when there is a clear franchise #1 pick, and they don't win. the draft lottery rewards...luck...and doesn't even fix the "tanking" problem (if teams are actually tanking, which they may not be). imho, its the worst draft system in pro sports, by far. the bobcats have not been as lucky as the thunder (the luckiest team in the lottery lately), and look at the difference.

[LilRip]

i hate the lottery system. yeah, it sort of discourages "tanking", but not really, as teams still haven incentives to lose as many games as possible to give themselves the best shot of winning. so...it doesn't really address the main criticism of a record-based draft. of course...teams might just stink. that's the real flaw. the worst team in the league...is often the worst team in the league, tanking or not. and yet, they only have a 25% chance of landing the top pick. that's devastating when there is a clear franchise #1 pick, and they don't win. the draft lottery rewards...luck...and doesn't even fix the "tanking" problem (if teams are actually tanking, which they may not be). imho, its the worst draft system in pro sports, by far. the bobcats have not been as lucky as the thunder (the luckiest team in the lottery lately), and look at the difference.

well, the draft itself also takes some skill and some luck.

and regarding the thunder, i assume you mean in the 3 consecutive years (07-09) where the Thunder drafted Durant (2nd), Westbrook (4th), Ibaka (24th) and Harden (3rd). let's examine.

In all 3 of those years, the Thunder/Sonics had a consistently worse record than the Bobcats and thus, understandably drafted at a higher position.

Thunder 07: 31-51, 5th worst record ->2nd pick (lucky)
Bobcats 07: 33-49, 8th worst record -> 8th pick

Thunder 08: 20-62, 2nd worst record -> 4th pick ("unlucky")
Bobcats 08: 32-50, 8th worst record -> 9th pick

Thunder 09: 23-59, 4th worst record -> 3rd pick
Bobcats 09: 35-47, 12th worst record -> 12th pick

Following that the 'worse team should have better draft position', it pretty much holds true for the Bobcats-Thunder comparison.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but furthermore, look at the selections the bobcats could have made. These are players who were drafted after the bobcats made their pick, while also being in their pick's range (e.g. in Noah's case, the bobcats picked 8th while Noah was picked 9th):

2007: Joakim Noah (instead of trading for J-Rich)
2008: Brook Lopez (instead of DJ Augustin) AND Serge Ibaka or Nicolas Batum (instead of Alexis Ajinca)
2009: Jrue Holiday or Ty Lawson (instead of Gerald Henderson).

[droopdog7]

I know I am playing chicken little but right now, the lakers are the worst team in the NBA.  I think worse than the Bucks. 

I can see Embiid on their team already.

[Birdman]

yea, lets hope Chicago makes it to the playoffs or they will get the #1 pick 

[get_banners]

i hate the lottery system. it doesn't discourage tanking, yet also punishes the worst teams in the league by giving them not great odds to get the best pick. look, you can tank pretty badly, but not every team that sucks is tanking. they might just not be good. and yet, they are subject to a lottery that could be the difference between them getting shaq vs. laettner, etc. these are franchise-altering situations. also, plenty of "tank" strategies are also good "development" strategies for teams that aren't going to win that year...you absolutely should play your young players over vets to get them valuable experience and figure out if they're going to be able to cut it in the league or not. you absolutely should experiment with lineups to see which guys play well together, even if its unconventional. not everything about losing is about tanking.

[Section301]

If the goal is to discourage teams from tanking, the solution would be to award the lottery odds in reverse order.  That way, the lottery team with the best record gets the best odds of the #1 pick, the lottery team with the worst record gets the worst odds. 

That doesn't solve the problem of teams that are truly bad having a hard time getting better, but it really improves the competitiveness of the games during the season.  It also is likely to give a good player to a team that is on the cusp of making the playoffs, so a team no longer has to worry about getting stuck on the mediocrity treadmill.