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Author Topic: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today  (Read 93329 times)

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11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« on: January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM »

Offline lightspeed5

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If we keep losing, we'll keep climbing

if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft
« Last Edit: March 01, 2014, 10:32:20 PM by lightspeed5 »
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2014, 02:55:21 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2014, 02:56:48 PM »

Offline lightspeed5

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Quote from: kraidstar on January 23, 2014, 02:55:21 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
at pick 6, we have Aaron Gordon. Him and rondo would be amazing in transition.
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2014, 03:07:13 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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We basically have a top 5-6 pick either Exum/Gordon.

I would prefer we could maybe move up to grab Joel Embiid or Parker/Wiggins.

But if we can get someone like Exum or even Smart, I would love that too. It would make Bradley expendable, and we could maybe package Green/AB for someone better.
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2014, 03:13:50 PM »

Offline manl_lui

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Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:56:48 PM
Quote from: kraidstar on January 23, 2014, 02:55:21 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
at pick 6, we have Aaron Gordon. Him and rondo would be amazing in transition.

I want no part in Aaron Gordon. From his highlights I just assume he is a poor man's Blake Griffin. If we do get top 5 - I rather have Smart and Exum with the 5th or 6th pick (they seem to switch places a lot)
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2014, 03:22:09 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Quote from: kraidstar on January 23, 2014, 02:55:21 PM
and thankfully in this draft there are several potential stars in the first ten picks. if we finish bottom-5 then we'll get a top-6 pick for sure. we're in great shape for a rebuild considering we were just contending a short hwhile ago.
Actually no we won't. While its unlikely you can always move down 3 spots in the lottery, unless you're at the bottom.

Happened to the C's before....

Edit: Specifically with the 5th seed the draft lottery we'd have a 8.4% chance to end up with the 7th pick and 0.4% chance at the 8th pick.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2014, 03:34:33 PM by Fafnir »
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2014, 03:39:30 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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8.8% is slightly slower than the probability that Rajon Rondo hits five free throws in a row, based on his career average.
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2014, 03:56:21 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P

MATH'D!!!
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2014, 04:01:28 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Given that the first three picks are, in my mind, complete awesomesauce in this year's draft who would all have easily gone #1 last year, I'm more interested in our odds of being in the first 3 picks.

If we finish with the NBAs 5th worst record, the odds of picking in the 1st three are about 30%

with the NBAs 4th worst record, about 37%

3rd worst, 47%

2nd worst, 56%

worst, 65%
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2014, 04:02:33 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Quote from: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2014, 04:08:01 PM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 04:02:33 PM
Quote from: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

While that is true, it's also a 100% chance of drafting Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, or Randle. Has there ever been a better reason to finish last?
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2014, 04:17:56 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 04:02:33 PM
Quote from: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2014, 04:19:14 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Ooooh, 8.8%!?  Sign me up!  ::)

I have to watch this garbage basketball (well, actually I don't watch much) for a measly 8% chance?  What a disgrace to the sport tanking is.  I wish there was truly a way to ban this type of nonsense.

You play to win the game, duh!
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Re: 8.8% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2014, 04:22:03 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Quote from: foulweatherfan on January 23, 2014, 04:17:56 PM
Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 04:02:33 PM
Quote from: sofutomygaha on January 23, 2014, 03:56:21 PM
Quote from: kozlodoev on January 23, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: lightspeed5 on January 23, 2014, 02:34:05 PM
if you use the ESPN mock draft generator, we win a good amount of times. They think we pick jabari with the first pick.
Let me guess, about once every ten times :P
MATH'D!!!
Let me give you one more while we're at it: even if we end up with the worst record in the league, we're more likely to get the fourth pick rather than the first pick.

Hmmm, that doesn't fit my half-baked intuitions about probability, so that sounds an awful lot like a conspiracy to me.  If we won a practice draw on top of that I'm pretty sure we could sue.

Yeah that doesn't sound right.  I'm sure there is a nifty Venn diagram somewhere that could solve this.
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