Why do people say, 'he needs another year'?

[pearljammer10]

He needs another year before he could potentially become a real impact player in the NBA. That is, according to the draft pundits who bat at a worse average than Stephen Drew, so who knows.

No right minded individual is going to stay in college when they can play in the NBA and rake in millions while doing so. The people are living in idealistic rather than pragmatic worlds.

Well even in a idealistic world, wouldn't the teams in the billion dollar league have access to better coaches and facilities than most college teams?

There are probably a handful of college that can give you pro level facilities, with pro level coaches, and as much time as you want at both.

Maybe Duke, Syracuse, Kentucky, Louisville, maybe 6-10 more? Even then, you're probably starting to really get liberal with the phrase 'pro level'

I've always been a supporter of playing against better talent you will become a better player. NBA teams have access to better facilities, better trainers, better nutritionists etc... Plus these kids are playing against the best basketball players in the world. I've never understood the "needs another year thing" myself. I'd take an extra year of NBA experience over that extra year in college any day.

[Eja117]

I'm not really talking about fringe 'might not get drafted in the first round' prospects like Lance Stephenson or Ricky Ledo, I'm talking about guys like Marcus Smart, Joel Embid, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins.

Why do people say, 'he really should stay another year'?

It's not so much a question about individual players. Just an honest questiion about the system.

If you're going to get paid a million dollars, and a team is going to draft you in the first round, why would a year in college be better than a year professionally? Can professional coaches not develop talent? It never made any sense to me.

I largely agree with you. The closest I would have to an answer is to look at Tim Duncan vs Camby vs Sheed.   Who made the right decision? They say Duncan has fundamentals. Where did they come from? 

Beyond Duncan it's hard for me to come up with almost anything else, although one reason is because guys rarely stay.  Shane Battier?

[2short]

call it the gerald green theory

[Celtics18]

We need a thirty team D-League, and we need it now.

[fairweatherfan]

Another reason that is often given in telling a kid to stay in school is that they can improve their draft position and get more money. 

That one always irks me.  If a guy is going to be drafted at say 10, and is able to stay in school and move up to say 3 the next year, pundits say, "see, he stayed in school and got an extra five million."  What they never equate in the formula is one year wasted on the kid's earning potential.  Essentially he made $0 on the first year of his new contract and that rarely works out to more money overall. 

You also want to get to your free agent year as soon as possible to maximize your real earning potential.  In the NBA you want as many free agent years as possible and staying in school steals one of those. 

Yeah, the rookie scale contracts were sold as a way to disincentivize leaving school early, but they've really done exactly the opposite, since you've gotta get through that rookie deal to get the big contract. 

The only way it makes sense for a likely draftee to stay another year is if it causes teams to actually overrate him and draft him much too high, but in reality the opposite is much more likely.

Right. For me, after reading all this I've come to the conclusions that really the only people who have a interest in widely acknowledged NBA caliber talents (guys who are assumed to be 1st rounders) staying another year in school are NBA GMs and NBA Owners.

Don't forget college basketball fans, but yeah, mostly so.  It's definitely not in the player's best interests 90+% of the time.

[D.o.s.]

A-A-Ron Gordon

But you rarely hear about the guy who spends his first season in the d-league and then comes out stronger for it as a sophomore.

I have a friend who did some work on that show. Very nice reference.

Also, didn't we hear a variation on that D-League story about Danny Green in the Finals last year? You know, before we roasted him for having friends and being social?

I'm not really talking about fringe 'might not get drafted in the first round' prospects like Lance Stephenson or Ricky Ledo, I'm talking about guys like Marcus Smart, Joel Embid, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins.

Why do people say, 'he really should stay another year'?

It's not so much a question about individual players. Just an honest questiion about the system.

If you're going to get paid a million dollars, and a team is going to draft you in the first round, why would a year in college be better than a year professionally? Can professional coaches not develop talent? It never made any sense to me.

I largely agree with you. The closest I would have to an answer is to look at Tim Duncan vs Camby vs Sheed.   Who made the right decision? They say Duncan has fundamentals. Where did they come from? 

Beyond Duncan it's hard for me to come up with almost anything else, although one reason is because guys rarely stay.  Shane Battier?

Roy Hibbert.

[Moranis]

In college, a player gets a lot more practice time. The practice to game ratio is higher. In the nba, a team can go a week or so without practice.

NBA success comes from talent, hard work, size and confidence. In college, a player can feel more encouraged about learning post moves, off hand stuff, other fundamentals, when playing against lesser competition. In the pro's you rarley see much significant low post development.

But i agree that if you are projected to be picked in the lottery, you should probably declare for the draft. The lure of financial security is too high. At that point you just hope the raw player is playing with good teammates and a good coach in a well run organization.

That is partially true of course since college it totally limited in the amount of time a coach can work with a player (something like 20 hours a week including games).  During the season NBA teams don't have that many structured practices (though they certainly do in training camp), the coach can still work with the player on things, watch film with them, etc.  And it is a year round thing.  I would imagine by the time a rookie plays his first NBA game he already has more practice time than most college players get all year when you account for summer league and training camp.  Now the practice structure might be a bit different, but you still get a lot more coach interaction in the pros because there is no limit.

[Celtics18]

Another reason that is often given in telling a kid to stay in school is that they can improve their draft position and get more money. 

That one always irks me.  If a guy is going to be drafted at say 10, and is able to stay in school and move up to say 3 the next year, pundits say, "see, he stayed in school and got an extra five million."  What they never equate in the formula is one year wasted on the kid's earning potential.  Essentially he made $0 on the first year of his new contract and that rarely works out to more money overall. 

You also want to get to your free agent year as soon as possible to maximize your real earning potential.  In the NBA you want as many free agent years as possible and staying in school steals one of those. 

Yeah, the rookie scale contracts were sold as a way to disincentivize leaving school early, but they've really done exactly the opposite, since you've gotta get through that rookie deal to get the big contract. 

The only way it makes sense for a likely draftee to stay another year is if it causes teams to actually overrate him and draft him much too high, but in reality the opposite is much more likely.

Right. For me, after reading all this I've come to the conclusions that really the only people who have a interest in widely acknowledged NBA caliber talents (guys who are assumed to be 1st rounders) staying another year in school are NBA GMs and NBA Owners.

Don't forget college basketball fans, but yeah, mostly so.  It's definitely not in the player's best interests 90+% of the time.

It really is a farce designed to make money for colleges and universities and to give a safety net for NBA general managers.  I really think they should lower the age back down to eighteen.  I can't stand the nineteen year old age limit.
The whole system basically does nothing but take advantage of kids at universities that are earning tons of dough off the backs of these athletes. 

Farcical.

[SHAQATTACK]

I'm not really talking about fringe 'might not get drafted in the first round' prospects like Lance Stephenson or Ricky Ledo, I'm talking about guys like Marcus Smart, Joel Embid, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins.

Why do people say, 'he really should stay another year'?

It's not so much a question about individual players. Just an honest questiion about the system.

If you're going to get paid a million dollars, and a team is going to draft you in the first round, why would a year in college be better than a year professionally? Can professional coaches not develop talent? It never made any sense to me.

I know a lot of the LAKERS fans are hoping these young kids or potential stars will WAIT to the 2015 draft.....so they will have a better chance at getting one ......this year and next

It makes zero sense for them to stay.....and possibly get hurt ....and ruin their chance for big money  and improve their lives.

Some kids like Rivers needed so stay ....he wasn't a All star  elite  pick.....just a good player with upside

Wiggins , Embiid,  etc....need to go NBA

No matter what the Lakers fan want

[SHAQATTACK]

If the Goverment can sit you in a battle tank and let someone blow your head off on the battlefield at age 18...how in the world is it wrong to let someone play basketball at age 18 for money?

[guava_wrench]

In college, a player gets a lot more practice time. The practice to game ratio is higher. In the nba, a team can go a week or so without practice.

NBA success comes from talent, hard work, size and confidence. In college, a player can feel more encouraged about learning post moves, off hand stuff, other fundamentals, when playing against lesser competition. In the pro's you rarley see much significant low post development.

But i agree that if you are projected to be picked in the lottery, you should probably declare for the draft. The lure of financial security is too high. At that point you just hope the raw player is playing with good teammates and a good coach in a well run organization.

While it is true that there is a higher practice time to game time ratio in college, the NBA season is longer and NBA players can work on their game 24/7 year round. They do not have to go to classes. They are also surrounded by the best basketball minds in the NBA.

I personally feel that if guys enter the league to early, it won't matter much. Sure, they might not be ready for NBA talent levels, but there are plenty of ways to develop in the NBA or outside the NBA if they can't stick in the NBA. Look at how many players came from foreign leagues to become perennial all stars. There are second chances. We have guys in the NBA who went NBA-Europe-NBA.

Another year can often just expose the lower than originally expected upside of the player in question. Players should strike while the iron is hot. Every sports league agrees to get guys under contract who might not be ready for prime time. How many excellent QBs stood around with a clipboard their rookie seasons? Quite a few.

I think the development aspect of college basketball is overstated. Coaches in the NCAA's top programs need to excel in recruitment, not development, since they are often fighting for one and done guys. They also don't need to prepare guys for playing basketball beyond 4 years. This often means stifling players by putting them into limited roles. We also see guys playing roles in college that they can't play in the NBA. Coaches are not necessarily preparing guys for great NBA careers. NBA teams will actually try to help guys find their career niche.