Plea for Patience: A Heat-Celtics Comparison

[Neurotic Guy]

With all the talk of strategy for rebuild, tank v. no-tank, and trades that produce slight upgrades to a team that is, at best, a collection of decent, young complementary players, I wanted to put in perspective just how far this team really is from actual championship contention.  BTW -- I am not down on the C's at all. I am just ready to be very patient.   

The 2-time reigning champs seem the most logical comparison as it is this team (or comparable) that is proven to be championship ready.  A team wanting to be considered championship material has to be able to challenge the Heat -- or a team as good as the Heat. 

Looking at the Heat's bread and butter, they are led by the consensus NBA best player and a second fiddle who, when healthy, is a top 10 player. The third wheel is all-star quality.  Any team that wants the label 'championship contender' has to be able to match the talent of these 3 players -- a tall (and skilled and experienced) order.  In additon to their Big 3, the Heat have a well-balanced, experienced set of complimentary players -- all benefitting from the focus on Lebron, Dwayne and Chris.
 
To compare today's C's roster with today's Heat roster would be silly -- we all know that the C's aren't contenders and would get destroyed by the Heat in a 7-game series.  But for the sake of detertiming just how far the C's are from contenting, I wanted to take a look at the Heat's roster without the Big 3.  This is the Heat sans LBJ, DW and CB:

Mario Chalmers
Norris Cole
Ray Allen
Shane Battier
Udonis Haslem
Michael Beasley
Roger Mason Jr.
Chris Andersen
Joel Anthony
James Jones
Rashard Lewis
Greg Oden (not active)


With Rondo out, I daresay the Heat without Lebron, Dwayne and Bosh would likely give the C's all they could handle.  It would be no surprise if the Heat beat the C's -- using savvy and skill to match the young legs.  I'd pick the C's, but mostly because I think they'd run this older Heat group ragged and eventually wear them down.  But I think it would be competitive.

Add a healthy Rondo and I feel sure the Boston Celtics would defeat the Big 3-less Heat in a 7-game series. How satisfying. 

The fact that you'd need to even think about it is a little scary.   The comparison, I think, is illustrative of the fact that the C's will need 2 addtional stars (one a superstar) in order to be in contention with a team as skilled and experienced as the Heat.

The move for Asik, or moves to make our cap number healthier, or moves to upgrade at back-up posiitons or to add a shooter, are 'spit in the wind' moves in my opinion.  They get us nowhere -- especially if the cost includes a potentially valuable draft pick. 

The C's need stars and history has shown that the only way the C's will get a star is by drafting or by blockbuster trading. 

My opinion is that the prudent move is to exercise patience. Danny has skillfully added draft assets and Stevens is coaching some of the current players to perform to their potential.  These assets can prove to be valuable chips if Danny is first and foremost, patient.   

Small upgrade trades that add another complementary player but do not add usable assets, or pehaps even sacrifice a usable asset, are not, IMO, useful.   Make the big move, Danny, for a couple of shockers (like 2007 RA and KG) or just sit tight and let the Nets hand us some gold.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Asik is valuable because he would fill a huge defensive hole and plays the hardest position to find a competent starter for.  If we got him and the 7th overall pick this year, we could have:

Rondo
LaVine/Exum
Green
Sullinger
Asik

Which right there is about 2x as good as our team is now and is totally plausible.  Then, when you add in the Pierce exception + one of Green or Sullinger and a pick, we could make a move on replacing one of those two for a huge upgrade.  So let's say we moved the TE/Sullinger/1st rounder for Melo.  Then we would have

Rondo
LaVine/Exum
Green
Carmelo Anthony
Asik

Plus we'd have a bench of Crawford, Bradley, Wallace, Bass, Lee, KO, Vitor and our second 2014 pick.   If we didn't get Asik, we'd have to spend all our resources to get someone else who might not even pan out to play the 5, because in order to be truly  competitive you need a legit defensive starter at that position.  By getting Asik, we could fill out the team around him with above average pieces.

[Surferdad]

All true, but I am not opposed to a mid-level trade that brings an Asik-type player because this may lead to a more balanced roster without players playing out of position. For example, I think Sully would benefit greatly and perhaps develop faster if he plays PF next to a true C.

Regarding the Nets picks, they may or may not be better than C's own picks on a year-by-year basis.  We already know that the Nets draft position in 2014 is irrelevant to the C's since ATL can swap picks.

[manl_lui]

I love what you just analyzed. In my opinion, it's exactly what you said, but I break it down to tier systems

We definitely need a tier 1, a borderline tier 1/tier 2 player, and a tier 2 player

Rondo imo is already a tier 1/tier 2 player. Green in my opinion at BEST is tier 2. I do not see him as a superstar.

I also agree with the part about our team can beat the Heat without the big 3. Sully, Bradley and maybe Crawford is young enough and skilled enough to run their team and bench out of the gym.

To battle the Heat, we definitely need a Durant or Paul George type of player on this team (tier 1 superstar).

[obnoxiousmime]

I'm not sure if this means anything because the Heat bench is supplemented by veterans and guys taking discounts to win. Non-contending teams fill their rosters with young players who, ideally with development increase their value. Contending teams need role players who know how to play now, not in the future. Not to mention, they're generally picking in the late 20s so it's harder to get good young talent anyway.

[Neurotic Guy]

I'm not sure if this means anything because the Heat bench is supplemented by veterans and guys taking discounts to win. Non-contending teams fill their rosters with young players who, ideally with development increase their value. Contending teams need role players who know how to play now, not in the future. Not to mention, they're generally picking in the late 20s so it's harder to get good young talent anyway.

It only means that we need to compete with a team this good if we are going to win a championship. Generally, you don't build the supporting cast and then add the stars -- you add the supporting cast around the stars. 

[billysan]

Asik is valuable because he would fill a huge defensive hole and plays the hardest position to find a competent starter for.  If we got him and the 7th overall pick this year, we could have:

Rondo
LaVine/Exum
Green
Sullinger
Asik

Which right there is about 2x as good as our team is now and is totally plausible.  Then, when you add in the Pierce exception + one of Green or Sullinger and a pick, we could make a move on replacing one of those two for a huge upgrade.  So let's say we moved the TE/Sullinger/1st rounder for Melo.  Then we would have

Rondo
LaVine/Exum
Green
Carmelo Anthony
Asik

Plus we'd have a bench of Crawford, Bradley, Wallace, Bass, Lee, KO, Vitor and our second 2014 pick.   If we didn't get Asik, we'd have to spend all our resources to get someone else who might not even pan out to play the 5, because in order to be truly  competitive you need a legit defensive starter at that position.  By getting Asik, we could fill out the team around him with above average pieces.

Pretty sure we would have to trade away some of these bench pieces to get Asik. The current rumor was Bass and Lee wasnt it?

[billysan]

I'm not sure if this means anything because the Heat bench is supplemented by veterans and guys taking discounts to win. Non-contending teams fill their rosters with young players who, ideally with development increase their value. Contending teams need role players who know how to play now, not in the future. Not to mention, they're generally picking in the late 20s so it's harder to get good young talent anyway.

It only means that we need to compete with a team this good if we are going to win a championship. Generally, you don't build the supporting cast and then add the stars -- you add the supporting cast around the stars. 

Mostly agree here, but some FA players want to see a few pieces in place before they sign though. I dont think KG agrees to come to Boston without Pierce and Ray already here for example.

I completely agree that we should be patient with the current building process. This team has the pieces in case of a legit young superstar becoming available and we have some decent draft picks to use as well.

It is still a ways to the 2014 draft and who knows what players may drop to us, let alone where we will pick? We could grab another Paul Pierce or Al Jefferson. Please Danny just stay away from the JR Giddens types.

[Jailan34]

I'm not sure if this means anything because the Heat bench is supplemented by veterans and guys taking discounts to win. Non-contending teams fill their rosters with young players who, ideally with development increase their value. Contending teams need role players who know how to play now, not in the future. Not to mention, they're generally picking in the late 20s so it's harder to get good young talent anyway.

It only means that we need to compete with a team this good if we are going to win a championship. Generally, you don't build the supporting cast and then add the stars -- you add the supporting cast around the stars. 

Mostly agree here, but some FA players want to see a few pieces in place before they sign though. I dont think KG agrees to come to Boston without Pierce and Ray already here for example.

I completely agree that we should be patient with the current building process. This team has the pieces in case of a legit young superstar becoming available and we have some decent draft picks to use as well.

It is still a ways to the 2014 draft and who knows what players may drop to us, let alone where we will pick? We could grab another Paul Pierce or Al Jefferson. Please Danny just stay away from the JR Giddens types.

Isn't that a little unrealistic to say though? DA please draft us an All star caliber player with the 10th or later pick? Also please avoid the bad players. I say give him the highest pick we can to give him the best chance at a potentially great player.

[billysan]

I'm not sure if this means anything because the Heat bench is supplemented by veterans and guys taking discounts to win. Non-contending teams fill their rosters with young players who, ideally with development increase their value. Contending teams need role players who know how to play now, not in the future. Not to mention, they're generally picking in the late 20s so it's harder to get good young talent anyway.

It only means that we need to compete with a team this good if we are going to win a championship. Generally, you don't build the supporting cast and then add the stars -- you add the supporting cast around the stars. 

Mostly agree here, but some FA players want to see a few pieces in place before they sign though. I dont think KG agrees to come to Boston without Pierce and Ray already here for example.

I completely agree that we should be patient with the current building process. This team has the pieces in case of a legit young superstar becoming available and we have some decent draft picks to use as well.

It is still a ways to the 2014 draft and who knows what players may drop to us, let alone where we will pick? We could grab another Paul Pierce or Al Jefferson. Please Danny just stay away from the JR Giddens types.

Isn't that a little unrealistic to say though? DA please draft us an All star caliber player with the 10th or later pick? Also please avoid the bad players. I say give him the highest pick we can to give him the best chance at a potentially great player.

I dont think it is unrealistic to hope for smart, skilled, high character player as our draft pick(s) but rather prudent. Obviusly the draft is not an exact science, but we can at least stay away from the knuckleheads and troubled youth type players until the second round.

I always felt like Giddens was a long shot and while it would have been a nice choice if he were still in the league, it was a wasted pick. Same with JJJ and Marcus Banks.

[Vermont Green]

...and history has shown that the only way the C's will get a star is by drafting or by blockbuster trading. 

Actually, I don't think it is that simple.  Miami did it mostly by attracting FAs (granted, they drafted Wade),  OKC did it primarily with multiyear top draft picks.  Indiana did it with drafting but not top 5 type picks plus some FA signings (West) and some good trades.  Boston of course did it with stockpiling "assets" and then making a couple of big trades (plus drafting Pierce at 10).

I don't know how the next really good Celtics team is going to be made but I don't mind seeing incremental trades because that is part of it.  Drafting has an element of chance to it but we are going to have a lot of chances so that is a good way to approach the draft (pick two every year and hope one works out).

Eventually, we will reach a point where through incremental trades and hopefully a few of our many draft picks reaping us some assets, we will be able to make a big trade, attract a big FA or have a draft pick or two become stars. It is an all of the above game we have to play and yes, there is some luck involved.

[Neurotic Guy]

...and history has shown that the only way the C's will get a star is by drafting or by blockbuster trading. 

Actually, I don't think it is that simple.  Miami did it mostly by attracting FAs (granted, they drafted Wade),  OKC did it primarily with multiyear top draft picks.  Indiana did it with drafting but not top 5 type picks plus some FA signings (West) and some good trades.  Boston of course did it with stockpiling "assets" and then making a couple of big trades (plus drafting Pierce at 10).

I don't know how the next really good Celtics team is going to be made but I don't mind seeing incremental trades because that is part of it.  Drafting has an element of chance to it but we are going to have a lot of chances so that is a good way to approach the draft (pick two every year and hope one works out).

Eventually, we will reach a point where through incremental trades and hopefully a few of our many draft picks reaping us some assets, we will be able to make a big trade, attract a big FA or have a draft pick or two become stars. It is an all of the above game we have to play and yes, there is some luck involved.

I was referring to Celtics history. FAs come here, but not superstar FAs, and not till we are an established contender. C's always have made their big gains through draft and big trades. Smaller trades and FAs fill out their roster. 

[Celtics4ever]

Actually, I don't think it is that simple.  Miami did it mostly by attracting FAs

Agree, their weather and Dwade and Free Agents brought them guys, things we don't have.  Their similarities and ours are almost non existent.   Stevens can coach the guy in MIA is a puppet for LeBron.

I think we need to patient up to a point.  No knee jerk Pitino trades but if a good one you have to do it.

[billysan]

Actually, I don't think it is that simple.  Miami did it mostly by attracting FAs

Agree, their weather and Dwade and Free Agents brought them guys, things we don't have.  Their similarities and ours are almost non existent.   Stevens can coach the guy in MIA is a puppet for LeBron.

I think we need to patient up to a point.  No knee jerk Pitino trades but if a good one you have to do it.

One other big factor for FA coming to Boston and some other cities is taxes.

Last years Marlins to Bluejays salary dump was a culture shock for many of the players and I have heard the same about Boston.

[Neurotic Guy]

Actually, I don't think it is that simple.  Miami did it mostly by attracting FAs

Agree, their weather and Dwade and Free Agents brought them guys, things we don't have.  Their similarities and ours are almost non existent.   Stevens can coach the guy in MIA is a puppet for LeBron.

I think we need to patient up to a point.  No knee jerk Pitino trades but if a good one you have to do it.

One other big factor for FA coming to Boston and some other cities is taxes.

Last years Marlins to Bluejays salary dump was a culture shock for many of the players and I have heard the same about Boston.

I don't know about the tax issue.  Mass income tax is a little over 5%. For a guy making 10m that's 500k. Less when considering deductions.  I realize that's a lot of $ but at that level of income there are bigger considerations.