To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question

[D.o.s.]

The draft is one of the most stacked in NBA history. It really is. Even if it's a one year tank job while Rondo recovers- there is the possibility of picking up a Durant type franchise player or an Oden/Melo/Wade type guy- maybe not a Lebron but there are still multiple players with franchise potential which you do not see very often. One every few seasons is normal but up to three or 4 guys like that hasn't been seen since Lebron/Melo/Wade.

O.K., let's assume that the 2014 draft will indeed end up being one of the greatest drafts of all time.  Let's assume that there are three guys who end up being on the level of James, Wade, and Anthony.  We would need a bottom three record in the league to have a realistic shot at landing one of those guys. 

Even if we end up not being a playoff team, I see finishing with a bottom three record as being a very unrealistic scenario.  You say that Ainge has done his job stripping this team down to be a lottery team, but to be that bad, Stevens would have to actively contribute to the tank job, as well.

We'd need an M.L. Carr style tank, where players who are more likely to help us win are benched for players who are more likely to ensure that we lose games.  You seem to agree that you don't favor a "tank job" that is that cynical and, frankly, dishonest. 

I say that I think we can make the playoffs, but even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that if this team actually makes an effort to win as many games as possible that we would finish with any lower than the seventh or eighth worst record in the league. 

At that point, the difference between the 7th pick in the draft and the 15th pick in the draft isn't substantial enough for me to want to see my team lose games for a slightly higher position in the draft.

You don't think our rookies and  young guys are going to see a lot of playing time at the expense of the veterans?

Really?

[Celtics18]

The draft is one of the most stacked in NBA history. It really is. Even if it's a one year tank job while Rondo recovers- there is the possibility of picking up a Durant type franchise player or an Oden/Melo/Wade type guy- maybe not a Lebron but there are still multiple players with franchise potential which you do not see very often. One every few seasons is normal but up to three or 4 guys like that hasn't been seen since Lebron/Melo/Wade.

O.K., let's assume that the 2014 draft will indeed end up being one of the greatest drafts of all time.  Let's assume that there are three guys who end up being on the level of James, Wade, and Anthony.  We would need a bottom three record in the league to have a realistic shot at landing one of those guys. 

Even if we end up not being a playoff team, I see finishing with a bottom three record as being a very unrealistic scenario.  You say that Ainge has done his job stripping this team down to be a lottery team, but to be that bad, Stevens would have to actively contribute to the tank job, as well.

We'd need an M.L. Carr style tank, where players who are more likely to help us win are benched for players who are more likely to ensure that we lose games.  You seem to agree that you don't favor a "tank job" that is that cynical and, frankly, dishonest. 

I say that I think we can make the playoffs, but even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that if this team actually makes an effort to win as many games as possible that we would finish with any lower than the seventh or eighth worst record in the league. 

At that point, the difference between the 7th pick in the draft and the 15th pick in the draft isn't substantial enough for me to want to see my team lose games for a slightly higher position in the draft.

You don't think our rookies and  young guys are going to see a lot of playing time at the expense of the veterans?

Really?

I think that guys who earn minutes are going to get minutes.  I think that young guys like Bradley, Sully, and (hopefully) Olynyk, and (maybe even) Brooks, Pressey, and Faverani will earn those minutes.

But, no, I don't expect them to just be handed those minutes at the expense of guys who will be better suited to help us win ball games. 

If player development does end up taking precedence over winning ball games, then I will consider it a shameless and shameful tank job--one that I'm not interested in seeing happen. 

[D.o.s.]

The draft is one of the most stacked in NBA history. It really is. Even if it's a one year tank job while Rondo recovers- there is the possibility of picking up a Durant type franchise player or an Oden/Melo/Wade type guy- maybe not a Lebron but there are still multiple players with franchise potential which you do not see very often. One every few seasons is normal but up to three or 4 guys like that hasn't been seen since Lebron/Melo/Wade.

O.K., let's assume that the 2014 draft will indeed end up being one of the greatest drafts of all time.  Let's assume that there are three guys who end up being on the level of James, Wade, and Anthony.  We would need a bottom three record in the league to have a realistic shot at landing one of those guys. 

Even if we end up not being a playoff team, I see finishing with a bottom three record as being a very unrealistic scenario.  You say that Ainge has done his job stripping this team down to be a lottery team, but to be that bad, Stevens would have to actively contribute to the tank job, as well.

We'd need an M.L. Carr style tank, where players who are more likely to help us win are benched for players who are more likely to ensure that we lose games.  You seem to agree that you don't favor a "tank job" that is that cynical and, frankly, dishonest. 

I say that I think we can make the playoffs, but even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that if this team actually makes an effort to win as many games as possible that we would finish with any lower than the seventh or eighth worst record in the league. 

At that point, the difference between the 7th pick in the draft and the 15th pick in the draft isn't substantial enough for me to want to see my team lose games for a slightly higher position in the draft.

You don't think our rookies and  young guys are going to see a lot of playing time at the expense of the veterans?

Really?

i think that guys who earn minutes are going to get minutes.  I think that young guys like Bradley, Sully, and (hopefully) Olynyk, and (maybe even) Brooks, Pressey, and Faverani will earn those minutes.

But, no, I don't expect them to just be handed those minutes at the expense of guys who will be better suited to help us win ball games.

I think we're on the verge of cutting the rabbit in half here. 

[Celtics18]

The draft is one of the most stacked in NBA history. It really is. Even if it's a one year tank job while Rondo recovers- there is the possibility of picking up a Durant type franchise player or an Oden/Melo/Wade type guy- maybe not a Lebron but there are still multiple players with franchise potential which you do not see very often. One every few seasons is normal but up to three or 4 guys like that hasn't been seen since Lebron/Melo/Wade.

O.K., let's assume that the 2014 draft will indeed end up being one of the greatest drafts of all time.  Let's assume that there are three guys who end up being on the level of James, Wade, and Anthony.  We would need a bottom three record in the league to have a realistic shot at landing one of those guys. 

Even if we end up not being a playoff team, I see finishing with a bottom three record as being a very unrealistic scenario.  You say that Ainge has done his job stripping this team down to be a lottery team, but to be that bad, Stevens would have to actively contribute to the tank job, as well.

We'd need an M.L. Carr style tank, where players who are more likely to help us win are benched for players who are more likely to ensure that we lose games.  You seem to agree that you don't favor a "tank job" that is that cynical and, frankly, dishonest. 

I say that I think we can make the playoffs, but even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that if this team actually makes an effort to win as many games as possible that we would finish with any lower than the seventh or eighth worst record in the league. 

At that point, the difference between the 7th pick in the draft and the 15th pick in the draft isn't substantial enough for me to want to see my team lose games for a slightly higher position in the draft.

You don't think our rookies and  young guys are going to see a lot of playing time at the expense of the veterans?

Really?

i think that guys who earn minutes are going to get minutes.  I think that young guys like Bradley, Sully, and (hopefully) Olynyk, and (maybe even) Brooks, Pressey, and Faverani will earn those minutes.

But, no, I don't expect them to just be handed those minutes at the expense of guys who will be better suited to help us win ball games.

I think we're on the verge of cutting the rabbit in half here. 

That's a funny and interesting expression, but, unfortunately, I don't know what it means. 

[D.o.s.]

Splitting hairs>Splitting hares>Splitting rabbits>choppping rabbits in half.

Sorry for that.

Anyway, great article on the Celtics defense on the main page:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/9/20/4646008/avery-bradley-courtney-lee-celtics-pack-line-defense

I think it's going to suffer without the volume of Rondo and KG.

[Celtics18]

Splitting hairs>Splitting hares>Splitting rabbits>choppping rabbits in half.

Sorry for that.

Anyway, great article on the Celtics defense on the main page:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2013/9/20/4646008/avery-bradley-courtney-lee-celtics-pack-line-defense

I think it's going to suffer without the volume of Rondo and KG.

Thanks for teaching me something new, but I don't actually think I'm chopping rabbits, here.  There are enough young guys on this team that many of them will end up getting minutes, but not at the expense of trying to win ball games.

If Sully and Bradley, for example, are getting minutes over Bogans and Humphries, I won't exactly see that as evidence that the tank is on. 

If Kelly Olynyk ends up beating out Brandon Bass for minutes by mid-season, I won't see that as evidence of a tank job either. 

[D.o.s.]

What about Crawford over Pressey?

Or Pressey over Crawford?

There's a handful of those substitutions that could plausibly be worked into "hey, they're tanking" or "hey, they're playing their most deserving guys."

Hence splitting hairs.

[Celtics18]

What about Crawford over Pressey?

Or Pressey over Crawford?

There's a handful of those substitutions that could plausibly be worked into "hey, they're tanking" or "hey, they're playing their most deserving guys."

Hence splitting hairs.

No, it isn't.  I'm not going to sit here and claim that I know which guys are going to get time over which other guys in any given situation. 

All I'm saying is that I am going to trust coach Stevens to put out the lineups that he thinks has the best chance of winning ball games.  And, I'm rooting for him to do so. 

I don't see how that is splitting hairs.

Of course, the fans are going to have all kinds of interpretations over who should be getting minutes over somebody else and blaming the coach for playing certain guys over other guys.  That happens even when everyone agrees that we are trying to win all the games.   

Anyway, we've gone way down a slippery path here.  My point remains that I think this team has the talent to compete for one of the final playoff spots in the East. 

[D.o.s.]

Right. Here's a scenario for you:

We play the Heat. We get blown out, lose by 20.

Kelly Olynyk sees 35 minutes of playing time. Sullinger gets 40. Humphries gets 10. They all play equally well. The game is never close, and the rotations aren't overtly or explicitly garbage time.

Now rotate those numbers. We still get blow out.

Is it tanking? Is it playing the most deserving guys? At that point, that's when the hair splitting starts. Hence "on the verge."

Off the tangent--I still think this team is going to win about 25 games, depending on when Rondo gets back.

[Celtics18]

Right. Here's a scenario for you:

We play the Heat. We get blown out, lose by 20.

Kelly Olynyk sees 35 minutes of playing time. Sullinger gets 40. Humphries gets 10. They all play equally well. The game is never close, and the rotations aren't overtly or explicitly garbage time.

Now rotate those numbers. We still get blow out.

Is it tanking? Is it playing the most deserving guys? At that point, that's when the hair splitting starts. Hence "on the verge."

Off the tangent--I still think this team is going to win about 25 games, depending on when Rondo gets back.

This is getting silly, but--what the heck--I'll continue to play along.  If we are playing the Heat, and coach Stevens says, "O.K., I'm going to play big minutes for Olynyk and Sully over Humphries and Bass, even though, I think Humphries and Bass would give us a better shot at staying competitive in the game," then, yes, I see it as "tanking."

Simply put, I expect coach Stevens to play the lineups that he thinks gives the team the best shot at winning the ball game every single night.  I don't think I can be more clear than that.  That doesn't seem to me like I'm splitting any hairs. 

[D.o.s.]

No, you're not. I was just saying that we were about to reach that point.

And we did. We're splitting hairs about splitting hairs.

[Celtics4ever]

We won't say we are tanking directly.  But look at our roster and the guys they are filling it with we are tanking by default.  The fact of the matter is Mr. Ainge is putting a stinker of a young team out there that will loose games with a rookie coach.   "Wink" - we are not tanking, no really, this is our best effort!     

[Tr1boy]

The draft is one of the most stacked in NBA history. It really is. Even if it's a one year tank job while Rondo recovers- there is the possibility of picking up a Durant type franchise player or an Oden/Melo/Wade type guy- maybe not a Lebron but there are still multiple players with franchise potential which you do not see very often. One every few seasons is normal but up to three or 4 guys like that hasn't been seen since Lebron/Melo/Wade.

O.K., let's assume that the 2014 draft will indeed end up being one of the greatest drafts of all time.  Let's assume that there are three guys who end up being on the level of James, Wade, and Anthony.  We would need a bottom three record in the league to have a realistic shot at landing one of those guys. 

Even if we end up not being a playoff team, I see finishing with a bottom three record as being a very unrealistic scenario.  You say that Ainge has done his job stripping this team down to be a lottery team, but to be that bad, Stevens would have to actively contribute to the tank job, as well.

We'd need an M.L. Carr style tank, where players who are more likely to help us win are benched for players who are more likely to ensure that we lose games.  You seem to agree that you don't favor a "tank job" that is that cynical and, frankly, dishonest. 

I say that I think we can make the playoffs, but even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that if this team actually makes an effort to win as many games as possible that we would finish with any lower than the seventh or eighth worst record in the league. 

At that point, the difference between the 7th pick in the draft and the 15th pick in the draft isn't substantial enough for me to want to see my team lose games for a slightly higher position in the draft.

You don't think our rookies and  young guys are going to see a lot of playing time at the expense of the veterans?

Really?

no. The best players will get time on the court regardless. It's all about accountability and building a system to foster winning

[LilRip]

sorry, but i'm getting confused. so what exactly comprises of a tank job? Because it's sounding like a whole lot of subjective hooey to me at this point.

For example, lackluster effort from players isn't a "tank". It's players feeling demotivated or it's just the general makeup of the player (e.g. consistency with effort). Questionable substitutions aren't a "tank" because even great coaches who are playing to win sometimes make questionable substitutions themselves (which actually work out sometimes). Plus, Brad Stevens (especially being a rookie coach) should be afforded to make these kinds of mistakes.

I mean honestly, are we going to use the metric "play guys who deserve minutes"? That sounds well and good in theory but it can't be proven, unless we're 100% in brad stevens' mind. If a guy produces well on the court in 10 minutes but doesn't really practice (for example, Marshon Brooks), and another player produces averagely in 35 minutes and shows up for practice each and every time and is a respected leader of the team (for example, Courtney Lee), who do you play? who is truly "deserving"? what would and wouldn't be a "tank job"?

As far as i can tell, the only tank job that is pretty clear at this point comes from Ainge and management, who have overstocked certain positions and not gotten proper help in others. They hired a rookie coach and are relying on a bevy of unproven rookie/young players to sop up the minutes.

[chambers]

Chambers is there anything good you can say??

Superstar, superstar, superstar. Its all you care about

I have mentioned several teams like the pacers, grizzlies

Who still today dont really have a big star do really well

In the league.

Btw i love the hype the 2014 draft has been given but nobody even knows if wiggins, parker etc. will declare after one year of college play. Even if they do, unless they take their teams to the elite eight, they wont be ready or may have made a mistake coming out too early.

Most of the guys who have one year of college Experience under their belt if they declare are projected to be chosen in the 7-30 spots.

Lastly i want to say that we are in the similiar situation as we were pre big three. There was no mandate to tank. The team played hard, rondo got a earfull from doc and we still lost lots. This up coming celts team is arguably more talented with at least more experience depth = more wins

The Pacers are Grizzlies are great teams- they haven't however managed to make the finals yet. They've been top 4 teams but have been slightly outdone.
If the Grizzlies had kept Rudy Gay I believe they may have gone to the finals but that's just my opinion.

How long were the Pacers and Grizzlies completely terrible? How long did it take for them to build teams like that?
I'll also add that Hibbert and Gasol are both top 5 bigs in the NBA- All Star big men that both teams were lucky enough to get outside the top 10 picks. How often does this happen?

I do harp on superstars- I don't care how we get them but we need them to win a championship. The Pacers have a superstar in Hibbert. The Grizlies have two in Zeebo (who is on the decline) and Gasol. They also got Mike Conley with the 4h pick. They also got the Rockets to pick Rudy Gay for them with a top 10 pick.

A 4th and 8th pick plus 2 All Star big men= The Grizzlies.
The Pacers? Hibbert was picked 17th- he would have gone in the top 10 if he did go to the NBA the year before- he decided to stay in college while Jeff Green went to the NBA and was picked 5th.
By staying on in college he hurt his draft stock because of a poor season and going out early in the NCAA tourney.
Getting Hibbert at 17 (and being able to trade for him!) was extremely lucky for the Pacers- and then to have him turn into an All Star within 4 seasons was just as lucky.
They picked Paul George with the 10th pick- something they would not have had if they made the playoffs.
Even with George and Hibbert- the Pacers still haven't beaten the Heat or a full strength Bulls team.

I love this team- and I am very optimistic about our team this year. I think we'll suck because I'm realistic and I'm logical. I look at our roster and the framework suggests to me that we've been constructed in a way that promotes player development and a style of play that will force us to slowly get better at defense and shooting.
If we wanted to make the playoffs we would have gotten Millsap or Al Jeff or any other couple of free agents.
We didn't though- which tells me that Danny isn't satisfied with making the playoffs. He wants to win a championship. He wants to land a superstar player to help Rondo win a championship.
He has two ways to do this:
1) Draft him
2) trade for him

We don't have the pieces to draft for a superstar. What star would we get for our pieces whilst keeping Rondo and Green?

I think we need our young guys, and our new coach, to learn the hard way. To take beatings, get punched, get knocked out again and keep getting back up- just like KG did in Minnesota.
Just because they lose doesn't mean they're developing a losing culture. As long as they get better then that's all that matters.

The thing that's positive is the fact that we will probably get better even sooner by acquiring a top 5 or 8 pick.
We'll have the asset to get a premier free agent or disgruntled star player or we'll have a shot at getting a great talent through the draft.

The draft is one of the most stacked in NBA history. It really is. Even if it's a one year tank job while Rondo recovers- there is the possibility of picking up a Durant type franchise player or an Oden/Melo/Wade type guy- maybe not a Lebron but there are still multiple players with franchise potential which you do not see very often. One every few seasons is normal but up to three or 4 guys like that hasn't been seen since Lebron/Melo/Wade.

O.K., let's assume that the 2014 draft will indeed end up being one of the greatest drafts of all time.  Let's assume that there are three guys who end up being on the level of James, Wade, and Anthony.  We would need a bottom three record in the league to have a realistic shot at landing one of those guys. 

Even if we end up not being a playoff team, I see finishing with a bottom three record as being a very unrealistic scenario.  You say that Ainge has done his job stripping this team down to be a lottery team, but to be that bad, Stevens would have to actively contribute to the tank job, as well.

We'd need an M.L. Carr style tank, where players who are more likely to help us win are benched for players who are more likely to ensure that we lose games.  You seem to agree that you don't favor a "tank job" that is that cynical and, frankly, dishonest. 

I say that I think we can make the playoffs, but even if we don't, I find it hard to believe that if this team actually makes an effort to win as many games as possible that we would finish with any lower than the seventh or eighth worst record in the league. 

At that point, the difference between the 7th pick in the draft and the 15th pick in the draft isn't substantial enough for me to want to see my team lose games for a slightly higher position in the draft. 

We'll have to wait and see. I think that Danny isn't aiming for a bottom 3 pick. He'd be happy with something in the top 5-10 range. At 5 he'd see who's still on the board- but from 6-10 he'll look to trade for a star to give Rondo some help. If he feels that trading for a star isn't going to be possible (no teams willing to give up their star for what we have) then he'll move Rondo and then we'll sink to the bottom of the pack.

With Rondo I don't think we'll be a bottom 3 team. Even with Rondo for only half a season I think we're looking at a pick around 5-8.
But if Rondo sits out longer or is traded then we'll be dancing very closely with the bottom of the NBA barrell. In fact if Rondo didn't play a game for us this year or less than 15 games I'd put us at the bottom with Phoenix, Philly and Orlando.

To me, Danny will try to get a star to help Rondo with our projected 6-12 pick as the bait (with a combo of something like Sully or Olynyk + Nets pick) and if that doesn't happen then he'll go all in on the draft and that's when we may see parts of the tank strategy like sitting certain players or letting Olynyk play instead of Humphries etc..