Boston: I'm not denying the quality of your team now, but is there enough talent to compensate for the lack of experience? I'm super high on many your young players, but what kind of jump is Valanciunas really going to have this season? Will Fournier have developed enough to be a key piece on a contender after playing an underwhelming 13.3 minutes per game last postseason?
Jonas Valanciunas will be better than he was last year because:
1) He was borne of fire and steel: Perhaps the only member of the set of Colangelo draft picks that was actually worth handing a massive contract to, Jonas Valanciunas, is about to enter his second season with the team, working on a rookie deal that still has at least three more seasons on it. Valanciunas certainly got his reps in an injury-plagued rookie year, starting 57 of the 62 games he played in while working nearly 24 minutes a contest. That’s sound work for a rookie big man, most of whom are bogged down by foul trouble and conditioning issues in their initial NBA turn.
Valanciunas had no such foul issues (just 4.6 per 36 minutes), and yet he still showed very promising signs as both a feet-movin’ defender and finisher around the rim. It’s true that Jonas did not rebound as well as we’d expect, especially on the offensive end, but the mere fact that Casey gave the young man as much as he could handle in his first year should pay huge dividends down the road. Compare Jonas’ number of starts with Detroit’s Andre Drummond (57 to 10) last year, and you have the difference between a well-versed starter and someone who is going to have to learn how to pace things for four quarters.
Jonas Valanciunas, a year after being thrown to the wolves at age 20, should be a little ahead of the pack. You don’t have to worry about him, Toronto.
He's already got starter experience, he knows how to do that now. Just learning how to do that is one of the biggest issues rookies, especially big men, can tackle.
That leaves him open to develop other parts of his game.
2) He works hard, he loves basketball, and never complains. Check out this report during the first part of summer league. Its a bit of a read so..sorry?
Perhaps the only member of the set of Colangelo draft picks that was actually worth handing a massive contract to, Jonas Valanciunas, is about to enter his second season with the team, working on a rookie deal that still has at least three more seasons on it. Valanciunas certainly got his reps in an injury-plagued rookie year, starting 57 of the 62 games he played in while working nearly 24 minutes a contest. That’s sound work for a rookie big man, most of whom are bogged down by foul trouble and conditioning issues in their initial NBA turn.
Valanciunas had no such foul issues (just 4.6 per 36 minutes), and yet he still showed very promising signs as both a feet-movin’ defender and finisher around the rim. It’s true that Jonas did not rebound as well as we’d expect, especially on the offensive end, but the mere fact that Casey gave the young man as much as he could handle in his first year should pay huge dividends down the road. Compare Jonas’ number of starts with Detroit’s Andre Drummond (57 to 10) last year, and you have the difference between a well-versed starter and someone who is going to have to learn how to pace things for four quarters.
Jonas Valanciunas, a year after being thrown to the wolves at age 20, should be a little ahead of the pack. You don’t have to worry about him, Toronto.
He's already got starter experience, he knows how to do that now. Just learning how to do that is one of the biggest issues rookies, especially big men, can tackle.
That leaves him open to develop other parts of his game.
2) He works hard, he loves basketball, and never complains. Check out this report during the first part of summer league. Its a bit of a read so..sorry?
"With Jonas, it's never a question. He loves to play the game and that's huge," Ujiri says. "He works hard, you don't have to tell him twice. He's giving all the effort, he never complains, he never really (complains). It's all about basketball and that's great to see."
Ujiri was running the Denver Nuggets during Valanciunas' rookie season last year, but it's not as if he had lots to learn about the Lithuanian upon his arrival.
"I know him from head to toe, I think, and I love him," Ujiri says, recalling European scouting trips when Valanciunas played for Lietuvos Rytas.
It's easy to share the enthusiasm, mainly because Valanciunas plays with so much of it. When he misses a shot or a rotation, you'll see it on his face. Then, you'll see him try to make up for it. For years, scouts have taken note of his energy, how he covers ground on defense, demands attention rolling to the rim and seeks contact in the paint. In today's NBA, big men don't need to be able to make their free throws to make eight figures a year. Valanciunas does all the things they're required to do, plus he excels from the line at no additional cost -- at least for now.
The version of Valanciunas on display at NBA Summer League is looking just like the one we saw late in his rookie campaign, only stronger. After averaging 15.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game and shooting 63.4 percent from the field and 85.4 percent from the free throw line in the season's final month, he went to work on his upper body.
In Las Vegas, Valanciunas is outmuscling opponents with ease. It's to the point where Raptors head coach Dwane Casey says he needs to make sure he doesn't get so bulky that it slows him down.
"Just look at him," Toronto forward Quincy Acy says. "It's just a testament to his hard work. He's been fun to be around. We worked out together before practice a lot our rookie year. That was fun, too, to see him work hard and he's still out there getting big minutes. It just says a lot about him as a person and how passionate he is about the game and getting better."
Through three games on the summer squad, Valanciunas has averaged 20 points and 9.3 rebounds and has made 24 of his 27 free throw attempts. He's committed turnovers and fouls too often, but might still be the best player in Vegas. The Raptors are trying to feed him down low, something they did with increased regularity as last season wound down and will continue doing next season.
"Every time I get the ball in the post, I get some experience from that," Valanciunas says. "I'm trying to use that experience. I'm trying to learn as much as I can."
3) Its Paying Dividends, And The Nerds Are NoticingBasketball nerds are like the canaries in the mineshaft. They notice trends that equal wins or player improvement before the rest of us do.
Here's Grantland's Andrew Sharp:
The Breakout Star: Jonas Valanciunas
Every year, there are one or two players who stand out and leave you gushing about them to anyone who asks. This year it was Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas. Not his numbers or any particular highlights, just ... when you watched the summer Raptors, Jonas looked one or two levels above anyone else on the court. Stronger than anyone, in great shape, and still quick enough to create for himself in the post. People have been talking about his potential for the past two years, but after a year in Europe and then a decent rookie season last year, it finally makes sense.
Sports Illustrated called him the MVP of the week, and with 22 teams playing 61 games in Vegas, he was the one guy who looked like a future superstar. One day soon, we will all have to learn how to spell "Valanciunas."
Here is Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver (an even bigger nerd) singing JV's praises:
Every time the 7-foot Valanciunas, the fifth pick in 2011, has taken the court this week in Las Vegas, he’s done a handful of things to make the basketball traditionalist chuckle out loud. The pump fakes are breathtaking, but they have been only one of his many attributes on display. Valanciunas has shown the ability to make jump hooks with both hands, and the footwork necessary to set them up. The touch on his passes and the calm with which he handles double teams are rarely seen in a player with his size and strength. Defensively, he’s maintained a high effort level and diligently committed to finding a body to box to maximize his rebounding opportunities. He’s altered shots and shadowed pick-and-roll ball-handlers. And, it goes without saying, he’s outmuscled and overpowered virtually everyone.
Put simply, Valanciunas is the best player in this year’s summer league, and his development is progressing so well that Raptors coach Dwane Casey didn’t hesitate or hedge when asked to gauge his center’s ceiling.
“I see an All-Star in the making,” Casey told SI.com on Thursday. “He’s not there yet. … I think you’re going to see that [recognition] in the future. As he grows as a player, we’ll grow as a team.”
Now, I'm not saying JV is gonna be an All-Star next season, but a pretty solid lock to be a 15 and 8 guy or so? I'd make that bet.
And you might ask/say, "Well fine, lots of people are high on him, but how do you KNOW he's going to be good next year?"
And the answer to that in the end is, I'm guessing. Just like someone might guess that Dirk is gonna not fall apart this year, even though you know sometime soon he will (or KG, or Ray Allen, or Pierce, or whatever). Basically, you make your bets where you can, but I think that betting on high-character, high-motor, high-ceiling guys who have already shown they have the tools to do what you're asking them to is a good bet to make, perhaps even better than betting 'Dirk still has it', or 'KG will be fine next season, he's a workaholic.'
Follow-up questions:
In your presser, you stressed that size is important, but who is your backup center? Arthur is too undersized, and the only other logical candidate is Antic.
Yeah, my bad. Here's my bigs rotation:
Gasol/Arthur/Gallo
Valanciunas/Gasol/Antic
Lots of different looks, lots of talent, different strengths in each.
Also in your presser, you said that you won't be able to replace Gallo's production, but you can at least mitigate it. How much of a blow do you think Gallo's absence will be for this team? Fournier is still a question mark and Beverly is undersized. Can you afford to start off slowly when Irving is another walking injury risk, while young players will inevitably experience growing pains being thrust in a much bigger role?
Whoa whoa whoa mister loaded question!
First: Solving for Gallothe 2/3 will work thusly;
Hayward/Fournier/Beverley/(Bazemore)
Gallo/Brewer/Hayward
Now with Gallo out, it'll look like:
Hayward/Fournier/Beverley
Brewer/Hayward/Fournier
Hayward's minutes go up to around 35, everyone else mostly stays the same, except Brewer's go up to around 32 or so.
Here it is with minutes:
Hayward (20)/Fournier (18)/Beverley (10)
Brewer (33)/Hayward (15)/
At the 4, Darrell Arthur and Terrance Jones eat up Gallo's minutes.
Its a piecemeal solution that doesn't add up to Danilo Gallinari, but I don't think its even really crippling. Everyone I'm playing I'm putting in roles they've played before, and everyone I'm playing has shown up before in those roles.