How good would Yao Ming be at 6'10?

[bdm860]

At 6'10", I personally see Yao as a cross between Rony Seikaly and Brad Miller.

Top 15 Center, would be a solid starter for the majority of his career, could even flirt with an All-Star appearance or two.

But I also assume he'd be healthier and gain some speed, quickness, and agility too.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I still think he'd be very good.  He had legitimate skills and it's crazy to think that he is only 32 right now.  He was putting up 25 points / 9.5 rebounds / 2 assists / 2 blocks when he was what...25?  You don't do that with just size.  He could really, really play.

[syfy9]

He would probably be somewhere between Kevin Love and Kevin Garnett. One of the most skilled big men to ever play the game.

Yao Ming would have gone down as a top five center if he stayed healthy.

-Shaquille O'Neal

I'd say a 12-time All-Star.

The All-Star thing I agree with completely. He'd still be a lock to get an overwhelming amount of votes, especially because of the lack of premier big men (circumstantially). 

[KG_ended_Bias]

Give me the 7'5 Ming right now at 32 with a foot problem. I'll take it! The uncertainty we have at Center I'll hope & pray he gets healthy by next season. Yao was at top 3 favorite of my mine when he was playing. I marveled at his skill & touch. You had to double or triple him or it was an easy bucket.

[crimson_stallion]

Tim Duncan at 7'2" would have prob averaged 28 points, 15 rebounds and close to 4 blocks.

At 6'10 he probably would have been more of a stretch 4.

Troy Murphy minus the rebounding

[timobusa]

He'd probably be Dirk Nowitzki type of player.
Yao Ming can shoot the heck out of a basketball. He has a soft touch for a big (huge) man.

[SHAQATTACK]

he gots biggest ol head on sum body ever.

[crimson_stallion]

Just for fun I went and avraged out the career points, rebounds and blocks numbers (per 36 minutes) for all NBA players ever to play who were at least 7'3" tall.

The list of players included (including scrubs) is:

* George Muresan (7'7")
* Manute Bol (7'7")
* Shawn Bradley (7'6")
* Yao Ming (7'6")
* Chuck Nevitt (7'5")
* Pavel Podkilzin (7'5")
* Slavko Vranes (7'5")
* Mark Eaton (7'4")
* Rick Smits (7'4")
* Ralph Sampson (7'4")
* Priest Lauderdale (7'4")
* Randy Breuer (7'3")
* Keith Closs (7'3")
* Zydrunas Ilgauskas (7'3")
* Peter John Ramos (7'3")
* Arvydas Sabonis (7'3")
* Ha Seung-Jin (7'3)
* Hasheem Thabeet (7'3")

There is a single player (Swede Halbrook, 7'3") who I have not included because he played in an era before blocks were recorded.

The average numbers for all players 7'3" and over are:
* 14.7 PP36
* 9.6 RP36
* 2.9 BP36

If you filter that to include only players 7'4" and over the numbers are:
* 14.2 PP36
* 9.5 RP36
* 3.3 BP36

If you filter it again to include only players 7'5" and over the numbers are:
* 13.75 PP36
* 9.63 RP36
* 3.75 BP36

Yao Ming's career numbers are:
* 21.0 PP36
* 10.2 RP36
* 2.09 BP36

What I take from this is...

1) Yao was a good scorer, scoring about 43% more than the average for players 7'3" or over.  In fact his scoring numbers per 36 minutes tops the list, with the next best being Rick Smits (20.0 PP36) and Peter John Ramos (19.8 PP36).

2) Yao was right about average as a rebounder for his size.  He averaged only 7% more than the average >7'3" player, which is a negligible considering half of the guys on that list were scrubs who nobody has likely heard of. 

3) Yao was significantly below average as a shotblocker for a big man.  He averaged 28% fewer blocks than the average >7'3" player, and about half as much as the average >7'5" player.  In fact the only players who averaged a lower block rate at 7'5" or taller were Pavel Podkilzin and Slavko Vranes, who aren't even worth mentioning considering they played a combined 31 career NBA minutes.  It's safe to say that Yao was the worst shotblocker ever to play at 7'5" or taller. 

So this makes it a bit easier to evaluate Yao as a player - he is a very good scorer, an average rebounder, a below average shotblocker.  At 6'10" on a per 36 minute basis I'm thinking he probably would have averaged about 18 points, 8 rebounds and just under 0.8 blocks. 

Comparison # 1 would be a Chris Bosh but without the athleticism 
Comparison # 2 would be Dirk Nowitski but with about 20%-30% less offensive ablity 
Comparison # 3 would be a current day (i.e. 37 year old) KG minus the defensive instincts

So sure, he'd still be a pretty good player and probably a borderline All-Star, but not an All-Time great.  Maybe he'd be about on the level of Al Hortford or Lemarcus Aldridge. 

I've always thought of Yao as being overrated, and I still do.  I've always known he's good, but people spoke about him as if he was arguably the best center in the league and one of the greatest ever, and I never saw that.  To me has nothing on the likes of Dwight and Bynum (when healthy) or the elite centers of yesteryear (Shaq, Ewing, Robinson, Hakeem).  I honestly think he was a 'good' center who was massively overhyped as a result of his size and the fact that he was Chinese.

[timobusa]

Just for fun I went and avraged out the career points, rebounds and blocks numbers (per 36 minutes) for all NBA players ever to play who were at least 7'3" tall.

The list of players included (including scrubs) is:

* George Muresan (7'7")
* Manute Bol (7'7")
* Shawn Bradley (7'6")
* Yao Ming (7'6")
* Chuck Nevitt (7'5")
* Pavel Podkilzin (7'5")
* Slavko Vranes (7'5")
* Mark Eaton (7'4")
* Rick Smits (7'4")
* Ralph Sampson (7'4")
* Priest Lauderdale (7'4")
* Randy Breuer (7'3")
* Keith Closs (7'3")
* Zydrunas Ilgauskas (7'3")
* Peter John Ramos (7'3")
* Arvydas Sabonis (7'3")
* Ha Seung-Jin (7'3)
* Hasheem Thabeet (7'3")

There is a single player (Swede Halbrook, 7'3") who I have not included because he played in an era before blocks were recorded.

The average numbers for all players 7'3" and over are:
* 14.7 PP36
* 9.6 RP36
* 2.9 BP36

If you filter that to include only players 7'4" and over the numbers are:
* 14.2 PP36
* 9.5 RP36
* 3.3 BP36

If you filter it again to include only players 7'5" and over the numbers are:
* 13.75 PP36
* 9.63 RP36
* 3.75 BP36

Yao Ming's career numbers are:
* 21.0 PP36
* 10.2 RP36
* 2.09 BP36

What I take from this is...

1) Yao was a good scorer, scoring about 43% more than the average for players 7'3" or over.  In fact his scoring numbers per 36 minutes tops the list, with the next best being Rick Smits (20.0 PP36) and Peter John Ramos (19.8 PP36).

2) Yao was right about average as a rebounder for his size.  He averaged only 7% more than the average >7'3" player, which is a negligible considering half of the guys on that list were scrubs who nobody has likely heard of. 

3) Yao was significantly below average as a shotblocker for a big man.  He averaged 28% fewer blocks than the average >7'3" player, and about half as much as the average >7'5" player.  In fact the only players who averaged a lower block rate at 7'5" or taller were Pavel Podkilzin and Slavko Vranes, who aren't even worth mentioning considering they played a combined 31 career NBA minutes.  It's safe to say that Yao was the worst shotblocker ever to play at 7'5" or taller. 

So this makes it a bit easier to evaluate Yao as a player - he is a very good scorer, an average rebounder, a below average shotblocker.  At 6'10" on a per 36 minute basis I'm thinking he probably would have averaged about 18 points, 8 rebounds and just under 0.8 blocks. 

Comparison # 1 would be a Chris Bosh but without the athleticism 
Comparison # 2 would be Dirk Nowitski but with about 20%-30% less offensive ablity 
Comparison # 3 would be a current day (i.e. 37 year old) KG minus the defensive instincts

So sure, he'd still be a pretty good player and probably a borderline All-Star, but not an All-Time great.  Maybe he'd be about on the level of Al Hortford or Lemarcus Aldridge. 

I've always thought of Yao as being overrated, and I still do.  I've always known he's good, but people spoke about him as if he was arguably the best center in the league and one of the greatest ever, and I never saw that.  To me has nothing on the likes of Dwight and Bynum (when healthy) or the elite centers of yesteryear (Shaq, Ewing, Robinson, Hakeem).  I honestly think he was a 'good' center who was massively overhyped as a result of his size and the fact that he was Chinese.

You're good at math

[Neurotic Guy]

Sometimes hypotheticals are just crazy.  Yao was who he was and he was good.

You can't know what he'd be if he were a different person.  What if Shaq were 6'8? -- he'd be a different person and would have a different game.  Does it make Shaq any less impressive to think that if he weren't 7'1 and 325, he'd have been a scrub?   What if Rondo was 6'6 -- his lack of quickness at that size and his lack of a shot would make him a tight end.  Does that change what you think of him now?

Yao was born to be 7'6 and he was the best Yao he could have been, which turned out to be pretty darn good over a short NBA career.

[crimson_stallion]

Sometimes hypotheticals are just crazy.  Yao was who he was and he was good.

You can't know what he'd be if he were a different person.  What if Shaq were 6'8? -- he'd be a different person and would have a different game.  Does it make Shaq any less impressive to think that if he weren't 7'1 and 325, he'd have been a scrub?   What if Rondo was 6'6 -- his lack of quickness at that size and his lack of a shot would make him a tight end.  Does that change what you think of him now?

Yao was born to be 7'6 and he was the best Yao he could have been, which turned out to be pretty darn good over a short NBA career.

They really aren't crazy if you look at them within reason.

Comparing Yao to a 6'10" version of himself isn't rediculous because he was a center, and 6'10" is still a pretty common height for an NBA center.  Comparing him to a 6'8" version or a 6'2" version would obviously be rediculous because then you're talking about SF or PG height so you are talking about a completely different position.

With the Rondo comparison, firstly 6'6" is more of a SG or SF size so you are likely changing Rondo's position if he were that size.  Secondly you assume Rondo would be less quick at 6'6" but that's not necesarilly the case.  Look at Lebron at 6'8" and 260 lbs - many people still consider him one of the fastest players in the NBA.  Rondo isn't just quick because he's small, he's a bit of a physical freak of nature with something like 6% body fat, huge hands and massive wingspan.  With his physical makeup he may not lose significant quickness even if he were 6'6". If Rondo were say 6'4" instead of 6'1" I think he'd actually be even more dominant.   


As for Shaq, if he were 6'10" and 260 lbs he still would have been dominant.  Many people talk about Shaq as a guy who was only known for being big, but he was much more than just big.  Despite his 330 lbs frame he was one of the most athletic centers in the NBA in his early years, he had outstanding hands, exceptional passer, elite rebounder and shotblocker, elite post up game.  The only things Shaq lacked in his game were shooting range and free throw shooting.  If look at someone like Al Jefferson you see that a 6'10" center with good post skills can still be a very high calibre player in the NBA, and Jefferson has never had the athleticism or the elite defensive skills that Shaq has in his prime.  Imagine Dwight Howard with Al Jefferson's post up skills and Pao Gasols hands and passing game and you pretty much have a 6'10"/260 lbs Shaq in a nutshell.
 

[danglertx]

I think if you are 6'10" you are most likely a PF these days.  Sullinger is considered undersized at PF at 6'9".

[greg683x]

i ddoubt he'd have made an NBA rotation. The guy barely averaged 9 rebounds and 2 blocks despite being at least 3-5 inches taller than anybody else on the court.  That's garbage.  Josh Smith has averaged those numbers for his career at 6'8" and people still argue his worth.

Other similarly tall guys like Shawn Bradley were shot blocking machines, averaging around 3 blocks a game. If Yao was 6'10"  I imagine he'd average something like 1 block, 7 rebounds and 15 points a night at the absolute most.

Likewise his offensive game really wasnt anything that special - good, but not elite.  Usually just came down to him shooting straight over a guy who is 5" shorter.

He still has some skill so he would still have been a solid player in the China league im sure, but I doubt any NBA Scout would have ever looked twice.

you dont think he'd crack an NBA rotation but at the most youd think he'd average 15 and 7?  People on this board would have been doing back flips if JuJuan Johnson would have averaged 11 points and 5 rebounds a game, but Yao at his best would put up 15 and 7 and not crack a rotation?

you should take a peak at the average numbers a rotation PF/C puts up on a nightly basis.

[CelticConcourse]

Sometimes hypotheticals are just crazy.  Yao was who he was and he was good.

You can't know what he'd be if he were a different person.  What if Shaq were 6'8? -- he'd be a different person and would have a different game.  Does it make Shaq any less impressive to think that if he weren't 7'1 and 325, he'd have been a scrub?   What if Rondo was 6'6 -- his lack of quickness at that size and his lack of a shot would make him a tight end.  Does that change what you think of him now?

Yao was born to be 7'6 and he was the best Yao he could have been, which turned out to be pretty darn good over a short NBA career.

Amazing writeup. TP.

[Celtics4ever]

Not very, would be my bet, his size was his greatest asset but he would have been more durable I bet.