With the current roster, is the Celts a playoff team??

[chambers]

If sullinger can cover chandler, gortat, asik, he can cover a good number of centers in the nba. He has serious strength to prevent ppl from getting inside position.

That's true, but he's still a second year player. He's not known for his help defense either. Olnyk is a rookie. These guys aren't young 3 or 4 year NBA players gaining their stardom. They are fresh off the boat.
If Olnyk draws 2 early fouls it's straight to Melo or Iverson.

Olnyk said it himself he needs to hit the gym and put on muscle because he's playing with grown men now- some of the strongest humans on the planet.

You're not giving teams like the Pistons and Bucks enough credit either. The Bucks have Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova. We are simply no match for those two inside.
In every game we play we if Olnyk draws 2 early fouls it's straight to Melo or Iverson on the bench.

How do we know Humphries and Wallace will even play? Danny could just sit them on the bench and give them DNP's to let the young guys develop and improve our lottery chances.

We were the 7th seed with 41 wins and 40 losses last season. This season we are SIGNIFICANTLY worse. You can't deny that. In no way are we better and in no way are we coming close to being 75% as good. You think we'll be able to win over 35 games with the current roster? Even with Humphries and Wallace?

We don't have any shooters, we don't have any rim protection. Our big man rotation is young, unexperienced and one of the least athletic rotations in the NBA.
You're not giving enough credit as to how important defense in the paint is in the NBA.

We are looking like a team that will give up 100+ points per game and only score 80 ppg. We struggled to score last year- what will we do this year with even less players who can create their own shot?
Less three point shooters?
If our starting front court is Sully and Olnyk, they'll have half an NBA season between them and  a handful of starts in the NBA with Sully.
And you're expecting them to only miss the playoffs if something happens to Green or Rondo?
Come on man, be realistic. Look at the last 10 years. I wonder if there's a single team that's made the playoffs with a rookie and a second year player as their starting big man tandem.
I highly doubt it.
 

[LilRip]

now, if only we had some sort of inside defensive presence...

True.  I forgot about the shot blocking requirements to make the playoffs.   

oh right, because good teams don't need legit big men nor do they need much in the way of defense. we must be the envy of the league with bass, sully, olynyk and humphries  come to think of it, i dont understand what all the hullaballoo was about D12.

[LilRip]

Why are you listing duncan, hibbert etc. Olynyk is a pf in the nba. That is vs guys like monroe, al jefferson, josh smith, david west etc.

Alot of pfs are about 6'10 while olynyk is a legit 7 ft. Wingspan is mostly overrated. Only some know how to utilize it to their adv.

Sully will take on tyson chandler, gortats of the nba. He did a fantastic job on these guys. He can guard centers and rebound against the best

Oh right, because Monroe, KG, Josh Smith, David West, Zach Randolph, Millsap/Horford etc. etc. are such easy covers. not to mention the terrific help defense he'll be able to provide against the perimeter players, a point you conveniently ignored. imo, olynyk has to protect the paint and he has to guard bigs, whether that big is Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph, whether it's Monroe or Josh Smith, whether it's Horford or Millsap, whether it's Okafor or Nene, whether it's Melo or Chandler, whether it's Lebron or Bosh, whether it's Lopez or KG, etc. And i think he will do a bad-average job of it. He's not a star player who can do it all. Ainge pretty much said he doesn't expect Olynyk to be a star. He's a role player and his role is to score. On a good team, he'll come off the bench and provide a scoring spark from the post. But as far as anchoring a top-10 defense in the league? i don't see it.

And furthermore, if sullinger is our ONLY C, don't you think we're in trouble? And if we have to rely on Fab Melo, of all people, to be our backup center, don't you think we're in even deeper trouble? Olynyk will have to play minutes at the 5. And so will Bass and Humphries.

And wingspan is rated just fine. It helps high iq players and doesn't help low iq players. having short wingspan has never helped anyone on D.

Do you think nowitzki is good on defense? How about paul pierce? Do they have any business being good?

Olynyk if you watched him bc i dont think you have, is a very good and smart defender. And he will cause matchup issues for guys like millsap, smith etc. Most pf in the nba are 6'9-6'10 avg height. They will have to score over olynyk. So it wont b easy. So a guy like smith has to resort to shooting jumpers and we know how that will turn out. Im not stating olynyk will shut down everyone, but he is going to cause issues. He has the height , strength , iq and agility to not get abused from the inside or out.

And to answer to the poster that said what about the questions about passing and shooting fts. Olynyk is an excellent passing pf. Green always racks up 3 or 4 and sully is also a good passer. What worries me is rondo hogging the ball and not let these guys utilize their passing skills.

Also olynyk got to the line almost 4 to 5 times a game.

This is why i say olynyk is the x factor.

i don't know why you're comparing Nowitzki and Pierce who are both Finals MVPs to Sully and Olynyk.

my point is, there's no way an Olynyk and Sully tandem will anchor a top-10 defensive team in the NBA. Besides, all we've been debating about thus far is their man-to-man defense, but we seem to have largely ignored the team aspect of the game, which is where i think olynyk will do poorly. Can Olynyk snuff out a pick and roll the way KG can? Can he protect the rim once a perimeter player beats his man or will he just foul him or hope to get a charge? 

as for man defense, i think against players who have some business scoring (like KG, Zbo, Blake Griffin, Millsap, Melo, Lebron, Bosh, etc), i think he will be inferior to one of our own guys (Humphries) on defense. I do think Olynyk can hold his own against some players like, against the offensively limited Tyson Chandler (your champion example) or some bench-level big men like Javale Mcgee. However, once felton runs a pick and roll with Chandler, Olynyk will be a liability.

But again, he's not anchoring a top-10 defensive team in the league.

[bfrombleacher]

Why would Olynyk need to anchor the D?

The argument is all over the place.

triboy16f's point is he can be an X-factor in the Celtics making the playoffs. He didn't call Olynyk a star, don't think he even said that Olynyk would play basketball well rounded enough to make him a perennial starter.

I don't think it's unreasonable to say that an NBA ready rotation level player could make the difference between the 8th and the 9th seed in the watered down, weak East (I don't necessarily agree, but I don't think it's unreasonable).

Dropping the names of Pierce and Nowitzki may have been a bad idea. But the point is he doesn't necessarily have to play fantastic D to make a difference. Bass has made zero impact as far as anchoring the defense and playing good help defense goes. Perhaps a better comparison would be Scola.

Finally, I think triboy16f was trying to point out how Olynyk is not a bad a defender as some make him out to be. He's a cerebral defender and perhaps a good one as a result. Heck, Sully played some fantastic D last season, too. He didn't imply that Olynyk would anchor the D in any way, shape or form.

Check out David Locke, a radio personality for the Utah Jazz, and his analysis on Olynyk. The defense part really had me pleasantly surprised.

[cman88]

guys lets not forget how horrible our defense was when KG wasn't on the floor

as of today our starting center is who? Olynyk? thats a big downgrade defensively from KG. we are going to get eaten up inside

[chambers]

Why would Olynyk need to anchor the D?

The argument is all over the place.

triboy16f's point is he can be an X-factor in the Celtics making the playoffs. He didn't call Olynyk a star, don't think he even said that Olynyk would play basketball well rounded enough to make him a perennial starter.

I don't think it's unreasonable to say that an NBA ready rotation level player could make the difference between the 8th and the 9th seed in the watered down, weak East (I don't necessarily agree, but I don't think it's unreasonable).

Dropping the names of Pierce and Nowitzki may have been a bad idea. But the point is he doesn't necessarily have to play fantastic D to make a difference. Bass has made zero impact as far as anchoring the defense and playing good help defense goes. Perhaps a better comparison would be Scola.

Finally, I think triboy16f was trying to point out how Olynyk is not a bad a defender as some make him out to be. He's a cerebral defender and perhaps a good one as a result. Heck, Sully played some fantastic D last season, too. He didn't imply that Olynyk would anchor the D in any way, shape or form.

Check out David Locke, a radio personality for the Utah Jazz, and his analysis on Olynyk. The defense part really had me pleasantly surprised.

So if he doesn't have to anchor it who does?
Pierce had Garnett behind him and Dirk had Tyson Chandler.

Olnyk has a second year 6 foot 9 power forward who is unproven defensively.

Olnyk himself is unproven defensively. The Bucks had Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova and they scraped into the 8th seed in the East.
We won 41 games and scraped into the 7th seed with KG anchoring that defense- one of the best defenders in the NBA.

We'll need to win at least 36-38 games to make the playoffs.
The odds are against us with Olnyk and Sully as our big man tandem.

[bfrombleacher]

Why would Olynyk need to anchor the D?

The argument is all over the place.

triboy16f's point is he can be an X-factor in the Celtics making the playoffs. He didn't call Olynyk a star, don't think he even said that Olynyk would play basketball well rounded enough to make him a perennial starter.

I don't think it's unreasonable to say that an NBA ready rotation level player could make the difference between the 8th and the 9th seed in the watered down, weak East (I don't necessarily agree, but I don't think it's unreasonable).

Dropping the names of Pierce and Nowitzki may have been a bad idea. But the point is he doesn't necessarily have to play fantastic D to make a difference. Bass has made zero impact as far as anchoring the defense and playing good help defense goes. Perhaps a better comparison would be Scola.

Finally, I think triboy16f was trying to point out how Olynyk is not a bad a defender as some make him out to be. He's a cerebral defender and perhaps a good one as a result. Heck, Sully played some fantastic D last season, too. He didn't imply that Olynyk would anchor the D in any way, shape or form.

Check out David Locke, a radio personality for the Utah Jazz, and his analysis on Olynyk. The defense part really had me pleasantly surprised.

So if he doesn't have to anchor it who does?
Pierce had Garnett behind him and Dirk had Tyson Chandler.

Olnyk has a second year 6 foot 9 power forward who is unproven defensively.

Olnyk himself is unproven defensively. The Bucks had Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova and they scraped into the 8th seed in the East.
We won 41 games and scraped into the 7th seed with KG anchoring that defense- one of the best defenders in the NBA.

We'll need to win at least 36-38 games to make the playoffs.
The odds are against us with Olnyk and Sully as our big man tandem.

Definitely won't pretend I know what will happen. But I'm guessing:

Nets, Knicks, Bulls, Pacers, Heat are almost definitely locks. The Pistons look like a likely candidate.

That's 6.

Then it's a toss up with the Hawks having a the most talented, proven roster. The Wiz have talent but they're young and unproven. The Bucks have a great front court but haven't gone anywhere with it.

With all the moves teams are making (including us), chemistry will be a question. As always, injuries play a huge part. It's not like teams haven't imploded before. God knows teams have failed/exceeded expectations.

The East is such an absurd, bad tossup all in all that simply a solid (not even amazing) season from Jeff Green might make it interesting. The talent is just so weirdly thin.



When you look at it from a perspective of: we're fighting for an 8th seed with the Bucks coming off a .463 record; the whole thing just doesn't seem so impossible.

The odds are stacked against it. Especially when you factor in Rondo and Sully's injuries. It's going to be a surprise if it happens. But plenty of stranger things have happened and will happen I'm sure.

The deficient front court might be a problem come playoffs but depending on what Rondo, Green and Sully do, his proposition that Olynyk is the X-Factor is not so absurd after all.

[LilRip]

Why would Olynyk need to anchor the D?

The argument is all over the place.

triboy16f's point is he can be an X-factor in the Celtics making the playoffs. He didn't call Olynyk a star, don't think he even said that Olynyk would play basketball well rounded enough to make him a perennial starter.

To bring you up to speed, if you check out page 5 on the forums, here's how it started:

1. Loose Cannon said if things go right, and Stevens defensive schemes work, the C's could rank in the top10 defense in the league

2. I said, if our frontcourt is Sully and Olynyk, then i don't think we can have a top-10 defense this season even if the schemes are brilliant. I said i think we'll rank in the bottom 10 defenses, but if the schemes work, we'll probably rank in the bottom 15. i said i didn't think Sully and Olynyk could anchor a top-10 defense and i made an analogy of starting Bargnani and BBD as similar to starting Olynyk and Sully.

3. triboy then challenges with "Olynyk led gonzaga to 30-3" and that his team should've been getting killed inside if he was as bad as i initially stated. He stated that olynyk had a height advantage and was well-coordinated.

4. i then said that the competition he faced in college isn't near nba competition. i then cited the bigs he would face and the slashing perimeter players he would have to turn away. i did say he could score though.

5. triboy then rebutted saying that some of the players i listed are centers and that olynyk's short wingspan wouldn't hinder him on defense. He also said Sully would be able to guard and rebound among the best centers

6. i then rebutted by listing more PF's that he will have great difficulty guarding, and also that he would have to guard bigs (regardless if they're 4's or 5's) in general while also being the last line of defense along with sully against perimeter players. i reiterated that i don't think olynyk and sully could anchor a top-10 defense in this league. i also cited our shallow depth of quality big men. i said he's a role player, which echoes Ainge's statements, and this main strength is to score.

7. he then stated olynyk's height again, that the guys he'll be going up against are shorter than him at 6'9" or 6'10" and that's why he'll have a decided advantage in guarding them. he then name dropped Dirk and Pierce for some reason.

8. i then reiterated that olynyk and sully will not anchor a top-10 D and that all that's being debated thus far is their man-on-man D and that the concept of team defense has largely been ignored. i questioned olynyk's pick and roll D and his help defense against NBA-level competition. i stated again that olynyk will have a hard time containing scoring PFs and C's, but against non-scoring big men like Tyson chandler or bench big men like Javale, he will stand a chance. however, if taken into account the team setting, where those big men will keep running pick and roll with their guards, then olynyk will be in trouble, which is why he can't anchor a top-10 D.


so you see? The back-n-forth has been all about anchoring the defense. I did say Olynyk can score, and his ideal role would likely be coming off the bench to provide an offensive spark from the post on a good team. But regardless of defensive scheme, if we have Olynyk and Sully as our main big men, then we're not going to be a top 10 defensive team in the league.

[bfrombleacher]

I went back just far enough to miss the Loose Cannon post.

That's my fault.

I don't think Sully and Olynyk are likely going to anchor a top defense either.

But I don't think triboy16f read the Loose Cannon post either. I think he was just defending Olynyk's...well...ability to defend. I think he was just trying to make the point that Olynyk might not be the huge defensive liability everyone probably thinks he is.

As a "last line of defense", I think he'd be like Bass. Not good. I agree, too.

I'm hoping we see a lot of what we've seen of Olynyk in the defense portion of Locke's video. Again, really loving what I've seen being pointed out.

But then again, Sullinger was said and proved to be an inept defender at the start. He's been a huge treat. Even BBD was the "anchor" behind KG in spurts.

Sullinger is unlikely going to be a huge difference maker on D but perhaps he'd bring us closer to the top of the bottom 15 rather than the bottom of the bottom 15.

[SHAQATTACK]

lotto city here we come

[2short]

First I don't think ainge is done.  Our roster is stacked with power forwards, all good enough players who should get playing time and or be wanted by another team.
IMO the depth is sully, humphries, bass with minutes that good go to Wallace as well.  I still expect bass or humphries moved for a shooting guard who can spread the floor, a center who can play relatively good defense (steamer!)and rebound or an Andre miller type vet pg off the bench.
Second new coach, new system.  This team ooks like it could be a pretty elite running team, not only fast break but get the best shot available before the defense is set up ie tommy ball.  I for one am curious at how rondo will look on the break with green filling a lane.
I expect a very good year from sully, green and even humphries or Wallace both those guys are going to be wanting to improve their play from last seasons nets doghouse/implosion

[clover]

First I don't think ainge is done.  Our roster is stacked with power forwards, all good enough players who should get playing time and or be wanted by another team.
IMO the depth is sully, humphries, bass with minutes that good go to Wallace as well.  I still expect bass or humphries moved for a shooting guard who can spread the floor, a center who can play relatively good defense (steamer!)and rebound or an Andre miller type vet pg off the bench.
Second new coach, new system.  This team ooks like it could be a pretty elite running team, not only fast break but get the best shot available before the defense is set up ie tommy ball.  I for one am curious at how rondo will look on the break with green filling a lane.
I expect a very good year from sully, green and even humphries or Wallace both those guys are going to be wanting to improve their play from last seasons nets doghouse/implosion

Is your regard for Olynyk very low--or do you reject Ainge's claim that he'll start out mostly at the 4?

[pearljammer10]

that is my concern because Rondo is just too good to prevent the Celtics from tanking imo.

I'm not saying we will be a top 4 seed, but with a lineup of

Rondo
Bradley/Lee
Green
Wallace
Sully/Humphries

I do not think anywhere between 6-8 seed is out of the question.

I mean I have to agree here. In the weak East that lineup isn't as terrible as everyone is making it out to be. Heck we might even play 500 ball which would put us right where we were last year.

[elcotte]

Why would Olynyk need to anchor the D?

The argument is all over the place.

triboy16f's point is he can be an X-factor in the Celtics making the playoffs. He didn't call Olynyk a star, don't think he even said that Olynyk would play basketball well rounded enough to make him a perennial starter.

To bring you up to speed, if you check out page 5 on the forums, here's how it started:

1. Loose Cannon said if things go right, and Stevens defensive schemes work, the C's could rank in the top10 defense in the league

2. I said, if our frontcourt is Sully and Olynyk, then i don't think we can have a top-10 defense this season even if the schemes are brilliant. I said i think we'll rank in the bottom 10 defenses, but if the schemes work, we'll probably rank in the bottom 15. i said i didn't think Sully and Olynyk could anchor a top-10 defense and i made an analogy of starting Bargnani and BBD as similar to starting Olynyk and Sully.

3. triboy then challenges with "Olynyk led gonzaga to 30-3" and that his team should've been getting killed inside if he was as bad as i initially stated. He stated that olynyk had a height advantage and was well-coordinated.

4. i then said that the competition he faced in college isn't near nba competition. i then cited the bigs he would face and the slashing perimeter players he would have to turn away. i did say he could score though.

5. triboy then rebutted saying that some of the players i listed are centers and that olynyk's short wingspan wouldn't hinder him on defense. He also said Sully would be able to guard and rebound among the best centers

6. i then rebutted by listing more PF's that he will have great difficulty guarding, and also that he would have to guard bigs (regardless if they're 4's or 5's) in general while also being the last line of defense along with sully against perimeter players. i reiterated that i don't think olynyk and sully could anchor a top-10 defense in this league. i also cited our shallow depth of quality big men. i said he's a role player, which echoes Ainge's statements, and this main strength is to score.

7. he then stated olynyk's height again, that the guys he'll be going up against are shorter than him at 6'9" or 6'10" and that's why he'll have a decided advantage in guarding them. he then name dropped Dirk and Pierce for some reason.

8. i then reiterated that olynyk and sully will not anchor a top-10 D and that all that's being debated thus far is their man-on-man D and that the concept of team defense has largely been ignored. i questioned olynyk's pick and roll D and his help defense against NBA-level competition. i stated again that olynyk will have a hard time containing scoring PFs and C's, but against non-scoring big men like Tyson chandler or bench big men like Javale, he will stand a chance. however, if taken into account the team setting, where those big men will keep running pick and roll with their guards, then olynyk will be in trouble, which is why he can't anchor a top-10 D.


so you see? The back-n-forth has been all about anchoring the defense. I did say Olynyk can score, and his ideal role would likely be coming off the bench to provide an offensive spark from the post on a good team. But regardless of defensive scheme, if we have Olynyk and Sully as our main big men, then we're not going to be a top 10 defensive team in the league.

you, you, you. It's all about you.

[Tr1boy]

Some of you guys and rightfully so are are using sully and olynyk lack of experience as the reasons why our interior defense wont be good.

My point is outside of the the inexperience we got two very capable defenders. College or not it counts that they led their teams to oustanding records. Both were pretty much alone as the interior guy. They were both all american and mvps of their team for a reason

So when danny drafted sully some ppl were upset. He was too short, he cant jump, he cant run. But he proved alot wrong bc he knows how to play ball. When he was on the court last year we were a plus team. It was a sight to see. So this year i expect better things from him

As for olynyk, danny would never draft an offensive specialist in the lotto. The guy is always moving, surveying the court, blocking pathways, hands are up , rotating , and is 7 ft tall. Not alot of 7 ft guys have his iq even. He wont he a last line defense guy. But should be an excellent team defender and weakside help.