Jeff Green is growing up before our eyes!

[mr. dee]

Four years 36 million. Danny Ainge spotted after the game:

TP for KOF reference.

[Boris Badenov]

I wouldn't say he's "growing".  I've had confidence that this is exactly the player Jeff Green has been since his first couple years in the league... I brought up dozens of times that his per-minute numbers were on a par with anything he had ever done. 

Actually his per-minute numbers are pretty similar in this current playoff, too. The difference is that he's averaging 43 minutes per game.

For example he averaged 16.6 points per-36 in the 2013 regular season, and in this series he's averaging 16.9 points per-36.

His rebounding and other numbers have actually been worse (e.g., 4.5 rebounds per-36 which is very low).

The big positives are (a) his 3 point shooting, which at 47% is very good, (b) the fact that he's hit some clutch shots, and (c) the fact that he's producing at a similar level given higher minutes.

But by and large he's been the same player we saw all year, as you said - a good player, and worthy of minutes on almost any team. But it's not like this has been some breakout series for him, at least to me.

To me the guy who's over-achieved more relative to the regular season has been Bass. His defense and rebounding have been very good.

Anyone who recognizes my posts on this forum know that I'm not one to get overly excited about young players.  I almost always consider them "bums" until they prove otherwise.  You're not going to see me calling Jared Sullinger "the future" anytime soon. 

I bring that up, because... I remember watching Durant and Green their rookie season here in Seattle.  I personally realized Durant was going to be a superstar some day, because of all the tools he possessed... but those first few months the lanky 19 year old was shooting like 40% and under 30% from three.  I'd watch Sonics games with my friends and often it was hard not to let your eyes drift to Jeff Green.  The dude was already built like a pro, he was POWERFUL... explosive in the lane, solid shooter.  He was only getting half the attempts as Durant.  There were multiple times when one of my friends would comment, "I'm not sure about this Durant kid... but Jeff Green is a beast" and I'd have to talk them off a ledge at how moronic they were being.  Still... Green had game from the start.  He always had this in him... he'll never be a superstar, but with minutes an touches and he can produce.  That's been a fact since his rookie season.

His combine numbers were some of the best ever. He doesn't seem it sometimes, but he is an absolutely exceptional athlete.

I think this has limited him, because he's never had to work to develop real offensive skills. Even now his best move is that dribble-drive right, where he often gets a decent shot only because his length and hang time create space. It's sort of the "hot women never develop social skills" problem.

At this point he does seem to be improving defensively (which probably has just a little to do with playing alongside #5). The other very promising sign is his 3 point percentage, which if he keeps it into the 38% range makes him a very good "3 and D" option. Zach Lowe just wrote a nice piece on how valuable these guys have become:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9225802/players-shane-battier-harder-find-conventional-wisdom-suggests

Now, that still leaves him pretty far from star territory. To get there he needs to become more aggressive and versatile offensively. I'm not getting my hopes up. Nor do I think he will somehow transform into even an adequate rebounder for his position.

But, I've revised my opinion and think he's worth his current contract, as long as he keeps shooting 3s well and defending. He's a great #4 player on a championship team, and maybe even a #3. (Right now he'd be the 4th best player on either the Thunder or Miami, or the Spurs, for example).

[LarBrd33]

I wouldn't say he's "growing".  I've had confidence that this is exactly the player Jeff Green has been since his first couple years in the league... I brought up dozens of times that his per-minute numbers were on a par with anything he had ever done. 

Actually his per-minute numbers are pretty similar in this current playoff, too. The difference is that he's averaging 43 minutes per game.

For example he averaged 16.6 points per-36 in the 2013 regular season, and in this series he's averaging 16.9 points per-36.

His rebounding and other numbers have actually been worse (e.g., 4.5 rebounds per-36 which is very low).

The big positives are (a) his 3 point shooting, which at 47% is very good, (b) the fact that he's hit some clutch shots, and (c) the fact that he's producing at a similar level given higher minutes.

But by and large he's been the same player we saw all year, as you said - a good player, and worthy of minutes on almost any team. But it's not like this has been some breakout series for him, at least to me.

To me the guy who's over-achieved more relative to the regular season has been Bass. His defense and rebounding have been very good.

Anyone who recognizes my posts on this forum know that I'm not one to get overly excited about young players.  I almost always consider them "bums" until they prove otherwise.  You're not going to see me calling Jared Sullinger "the future" anytime soon. 

I bring that up, because... I remember watching Durant and Green their rookie season here in Seattle.  I personally realized Durant was going to be a superstar some day, because of all the tools he possessed... but those first few months the lanky 19 year old was shooting like 40% and under 30% from three.  I'd watch Sonics games with my friends and often it was hard not to let your eyes drift to Jeff Green.  The dude was already built like a pro, he was POWERFUL... explosive in the lane, solid shooter.  He was only getting half the attempts as Durant.  There were multiple times when one of my friends would comment, "I'm not sure about this Durant kid... but Jeff Green is a beast" and I'd have to talk them off a ledge at how moronic they were being.  Still... Green had game from the start.  He always had this in him... he'll never be a superstar, but with minutes an touches and he can produce.  That's been a fact since his rookie season.

His combine numbers were some of the best ever. He doesn't seem it sometimes, but he is an absolutely exceptional athlete.

I think this has limited him, because he's never had to work to develop real offensive skills. Even now his best move is that dribble-drive right, where he often gets a decent shot only because his length and hang time create space. It's sort of the "hot women never develop social skills" problem.

At this point he does seem to be improving defensively (which probably has just a little to do with playing alongside #5). The other very promising sign is his 3 point percentage, which if he keeps it into the 38% range makes him a very good "3 and D" option. Zach Lowe just wrote a nice piece on how valuable these guys have become:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9225802/players-shane-battier-harder-find-conventional-wisdom-suggests

Now, that still leaves him pretty far from star territory. To get there he needs to become more aggressive and versatile offensively. I'm not getting my hopes up. Nor do I think he will somehow transform into even an adequate rebounder for his position.

But, I've revised my opinion and think he's worth his current contract, as long as he keeps shooting 3s well and defending. He's a great #4 player on a championship team, and maybe even a #3. (Right now he'd be the 4th best player on either the Thunder or Miami, or the Spurs, for example).

I'm telling you... I've been watching Green for a long time and I've always liked him.  I don't think he'll ever be a star, but I don't think he has to be.  He's always been solid.  The only thing that's surprising me about him right now is his three point shooting percentage (which is probably just a streak) and his perceived clutchness (never really had an opportunity to show whether he was clutch or not) ...

But the defense doesn't even surprise me.  I always thought he was a good defender watching him in Seattle/OKC... he just wasn't part of a team with the same defensive mentality as Boston.

And just to prove that I'm not pulling this out of my butt, I went back and found some of my own quotes.   Here's a thread from April 2009 (4 years ago) where some Celtic homers argued that Glen "Obese" Davis was going to eclipse Jeff Green in terms of talent:

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=27025.msg460387#msg460387

Here's some excerpts of my comments on Obese Davis at the time:

I've been surprised by Baby's role playing lately.  He's turned into a semi-reliable role playing big man and that's more than I ever expected.   But Jeff Green is light years beyond Baby.   

The good news is that I no longer thing Baby flat out sucks....

To which "Rondo_is_better" responds:

Jeff Green is not light years beyond Baby. That is a huge, huge exaggeration.

To which I respond:

Yes he is.

Baby has been hitting his wide open jumpers semi-consistently in the absence of KG and hasn't been a complete liability on defense.   He's been an alright role player....

Meanwhile if you are just going to pick out a random chunk of games to prove how omgomgawesome Baby is... then what about the entire month of February when Jeff Green (who is younger than both Powe or Baby) averaged 20.5  points and 9.5 rebounds?   

This is silly.   Jeff Green is clearly light years better than Glen Davis.  Jeff Green has allstar potential.  Baby has filled in nicely alongside our remaining 4 starters by hitting his wide open jump shots, but as a player he is nowhere near the talent Jeff Green is.

To which "Wiley" responds (some excerpts):

...I agree with Rondo_Is_Better, to say that Jeff Green is light years ahead of or better than Glen Davis is an exaggeration.  He may be better, but not light years.  Jeff Green's main advantage over Glenn Davis is his size, not his talent level...
Jeff Green's size is an advantage because he fits the N.B.A. small forward position to a T...
...In terms of pure talent, Baby is nearly equal to Jeff Green.  Davis is an outstanding athlete with amazing footwork and great intelligence and passing skills....
As far as the comment that Baby "is what he is".  What he is at this moment is completely indispensable to this team.
...What we have in Baby, to my mind, is a keeper (which also makes him one hell of a trade chip if it comes to that)

And my response:

Have you watched Jeff Green play?  The guy is a major stud.  Crazy athletic, fantastic scorer, solid shooter, great finisher... his defense is one of the bright spots on that lousy team. He has a big future in the league and is already really very good.  I wonder what kind of impact he'd have if his sole role was to play 37 minutes alongside Rondo, Perk, Ray and Pierce and hit wide open jumpers.   If he took 17 shots like Baby against Miami do you think he'd finish with 22 points and the lowest +/- in the starting lineup also?  Geez I bet so...

I realize these comments were from 2009 and Glen Davis technically had a better statistical season this year (through 34 games) than Green, but I'm still putting this victory on my list... another argument won by LarBrd33!!  Oh the vanity! LOL (don't worry... i've lost tons in retrospect)

Bottom line:  Even in 2009 I was commenting thatGreen was a solid player with all-star potential.  Now in 2013, I don't see a ton of improvement.  He's still a solid player, but it's looking like he'll max out at fringe star (like a Danny Granger)

[Celtics4ever]

He did help us a lot in the fourth.  Those two threes and that dunk kept us afloat.  He actually rose to the occasion and did not vanish, I think that is progress.   We need a young guy to step up in the fourth and that was huge. 

Did he play like a superstar?  No, but he did not shirk from his duties.   I thought Bass and Him were big last night.   I think the whole team did well and KG deserves special mention for heroic board work and that shot late in the game.

[timobusa]

He reminds me more and more of Sam Perkins. He has that same sleepy demeanor and casual way of hitting big 3s.

His sleepy demeanor reminds me of Tracy Mcgrady, he's about the same built body wise.
But T-mac in his prime was a beast.
Maybe Green will be a poor mans Tracy Mcgrady.(hopefully minus the injuries) I'll take that any day!

[NocturnalRebel]

Green has been great tha second half on this season. And going into these playoffs. I called it that Green would get love after being bashed so hard and i'm glad to see he is. I always believed in this brotha. He still has room to grow and improve.

His dunk on Melo was great as well as his dagger 3's. If only he would do that more often. He's very well capable of doing it. But Green is determined these days. I hope he continues to be aggressive. I love what i'm seeing from him.

[CelticG1]

I'm sure even people who weren't big fans of j green are staring to come around on him.

Good for him to continue to work and ignore the noise.

Missed an entire year last year, has been criticized for a lot of his career, biggish contract, playing in Boston....he's just done well for himself.

It hasn't been as eye popping in this series but I feel like Jeffs defense has really made him turn a corner as a player

[clover]

Green's PER numbers may be the same as in the regular season.

But by playing the Knicks he's playing against above average competition compared to the regular season; playing in the playoffs is a bigger stage; teams play tougher defense in the playoffs; and he's been a starter here, whereas most of his regular season he was a bench player.  He's closer to a primary option than he was all season, and he's playing much more consistently than he did through the year.


Green should be healthier and stronger than he was on average through the regular season, and his improvement through the year fits with that as well.

[Snakehead]

The end of the game was driving me crazy, forcing everything to Pierce when Jeff should have been touching the ball.  Finally it found its way to him.

He is clutch.  No other way about it.  I'm sure some people will discount him, hey it's Jeff we're talking about here, there is always a "catch" to his production to some people.  I've gotten over it.  I'm a big fan.

He's the third or fourth best player on a contender, and he could easily be the guy who wins you a lot of games in that role with plays like this.

Four years 36 million. Danny Ainge spotted after the game:

TP for KOF reference.

haha I'm with you guys.

[Vermont Green]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Jeff Green's impact is that he has been covered by Carmelo who is a great defender.  With JG playing well enough to force the Knicks to put CA on him, that means CA isn't on Pierce.

We will need yet a little more from Green and several others to win the next two, not at all out of the realm of possibility.

[Fafnir]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Jeff Green's impact is that he has been covered by Carmelo who is a great defender.

Carmelo isn't a great defender, also Jeff Green has been covered by Shumpert/Kidd/Felton/Smith for long periods when the C's have been "big" with Green/Pierce at the 2/3

[Snakehead]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Jeff Green's impact is that he has been covered by Carmelo who is a great defender.

Carmelo isn't a great defender, also Jeff Green has been covered by Shumpert/Kidd/Felton/Smith for long periods when the C's have been "big" with Green/Pierce at the 2/3

Yes.

I think he had Jr Smith on him down the stretch (which is part of why I was yelling at the TV "GIVE IT TO JEFF!!!")

[Fafnir]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Jeff Green's impact is that he has been covered by Carmelo who is a great defender.

Carmelo isn't a great defender, also Jeff Green has been covered by Shumpert/Kidd/Felton/Smith for long periods when the C's have been "big" with Green/Pierce at the 2/3

Yes.

I think he had Jr Smith on him down the stretch (which is part of why I was yelling at the TV "GIVE IT TO JEFF!!!")

He's done an okay job, but he hasn't been a big difference maker, when he's had the ball the Knicks have been able to shut down his strong hand and prevent any playmaking (or drives) to easily.

He's been solid, but solid players don't make your team great.

[Snakehead]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Jeff Green's impact is that he has been covered by Carmelo who is a great defender.

Carmelo isn't a great defender, also Jeff Green has been covered by Shumpert/Kidd/Felton/Smith for long periods when the C's have been "big" with Green/Pierce at the 2/3

Yes.

I think he had Jr Smith on him down the stretch (which is part of why I was yelling at the TV "GIVE IT TO JEFF!!!")

He's done an okay job, but he hasn't been a big difference maker, when he's had the ball the Knicks have been able to shut down his strong hand and prevent any playmaking (or drives) to easily.

He's been solid, but solid players don't make your team great.

If you mean Jeff, I agree he hasn't been great, but how many times have we seen a dunk set off his scoring output down the stretch of the season?  Then he gets a big dunk and he just doesn't touch the ball until he hits the two threes.

He's a good shooter and will kick out the ball if that's the right choice.  I thought he and Terry should have been touching the ball, especially considering Pierce was losing it repeatedly against Shump (which he needs to realize is not a mismatch).

[Galeto]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Jeff Green's impact is that he has been covered by Carmelo who is a great defender.

Carmelo isn't a great defender, also Jeff Green has been covered by Shumpert/Kidd/Felton/Smith for long periods when the C's have been "big" with Green/Pierce at the 2/3

Yeah, this is the first I've seen of someone referring to Carmelo as a great defender.  He's not a bad as his rep but he's certainly not great.  He does have his strong points.  He's very good at stripping the ball in the post when his man turns to take a shot, just like Antoine was; his lateral quickness is not only underrated but above-average in my estimation; and he's a good rebounder, which is a big factor on defense.  On the negative side, his defensive rotations are half-hearted at best as are his attempts to step in and take a charge.  He also doesn't exert much energy on transition defense.  Carmelo has mostly defended Bass and when he's defended Green, I can remember Green hitting a bunch of jumpers in his grill.

One thing I liked about how Green was used last night was how his transition forays to the hoop were more judicious.  He had gotten into a bad habit of just trying to take it to the rim every opportunity he got even when defenders were in place and had gotten stripped a lot.  He picked his spots a lot better.  Pierce and Terry also seemed to outlet to Green less, in a way partially managing Green's transition decisions for him.