I don't think the Lakers match up particularly well with the Spurs. MWP is their best forward defender, but he's essentially wasted because the Spurs don't have iso scorers at those positions. My guess is the Lakers let Gasol deal with Duncan. Howard should take Splitter who requires less attention, giving him some freedom to protect LA's slow-footed guards from penetration by Parker and Ginobili.
On the other end, Duncan and Splitter are solid defensive bigs who can handle LA's talented paint presence. MWP may be able to bully Leonard in the post, but he won't have much luck creating on the perimeter against him. With Kobe's absence and Meeks' uninspiring play, the Lakers will probably go with with two PG's in Nash and Blake during crunch-time.
If Ginobili can't help the Spurs much and Parker continues his post-injury struggles, LA has a chance. But if Parker returns to form, there's not much the Lakers can do about it. Five years later, they still can't check a quick point guard.