I've seen him every game for the past 2 years. He has good hands, a surprisingly good jump shot, and is a great passer for a big (including multiple no-looks in the same game? We were all going nuts in the student section at Cuse).
You've clearly seen a lot more of him than I have, but going by the numbers he finished ahead of only Plumlee, Drummond, and Ezeli in assists per 40, and averaged twice as many TOs as assists.
I'd be curious to know what his % on those jumpers was? That would be a real asset to his offensive chances, since no legit 2012 center prospect scored less or drew fewer free throw attempts.
I'm also genuinely curious to hear what you'd attribute his defensive rebounding woes too? If he was typically meeting opponents at the rim he couldn't have been in terrible position? I don't know.
Here's hoping you're right and I'm wrong.
One of the biggest things with Fab is that he was not a central part of the Syracuse offense last year. There was rarely a play run for him and he didn't necessarily have that many passing opportunities. He did, however, show some flashes of brilliance with some of the assists he had. So I guess it is not that he is an amazing passer right now, but he shows a decent amount of potential with his court vision.
With regards to his jump shot, he once again did not take that many. I don't know the exact numbers, but regardless we were all impressed. There was one game where he made 3 15-18 ft jumpers in a row. Also, over the last 10 games of the season he shot over 72% from the line - which is a great number for a 7 footer, even though it is a relatively small sample size (21-29).
Most of his points came off of offensive boards and lobs - which he was always athletic enough and aware enough to catch and finish.
Regarding the low rebounding numbers, I think it is very similar to Perk. If you are defending the post, you actually are not in a great position to grab rebounds. About 70% of misses go to the opposite side of the hoop, and while playing post D he was not in a position to grab any of these. I also do believe that playing in a 2-3 zone puts the on ball defender out of position for rebounds, and as a center, Fab was almost always defending on the ball. His low number of 5.8 rpg is also misleading because he only played 25 mpg (I realize you mentioned the /40 #s). Also, the two wing defenders (usually Joseph 4.9rpg, Rak Christmas 10.1 r/40min, and CJ Fair 5.5rpg) were all very athletic and grabbed most of the boards.
Based on everything I've said, you probably think that I believe Melo to be a definite steal - which is not true. I didn't want the C's to pick him, mostly because of his maturity issues. I would have gone with Moultrie, but it is way too early to consider him a bust. I guess all the negativity about him got me a little defensive about my school... Comparing him to Thabeet (which everyone on this blog was doing) is just totally unfair because they are very different players and were picked at very different positions in the draft.
Fab is definitely a project, but if he focuses on basketball and stays out of trouble he could be a solid defensive center at some point. I think he'll be like Perk, with a lower BBIQ, but with a nice medium range jumper and a better blocker.
I do think, however, that Kris Joseph was a steal and will go down as one of Danny's best picks. He'll be a solid 6th man for a long time - reminds me of James Posey or a poor man's Paul Pierce.